Would you rather have Bregman or Valdez?

[Stratos]

Both very good players.  Both are about the same age, Bregman is a few months younger.

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Both very good players.  Both are about the same age, Bregman is a few months younger.

To me it is an easy answer. Bregman. 

[Backtobanks]

It depends on what your team needs.  The Cubs needed a 3B that can hit more than another SP.

[Derwood]

Every day player over every fifth day guy

[Bertz]

Valdez is a better player, but when you look big picture I'm glad we did Bregman:

- Pitcher attrition is a horsefeathers

- The trade market was way better on the SP side than the pitching side.  Bregman + Cabrera is likely a lot better than Valdez + TBD Hitter

- The way that Bregman pushed Shaw to the bench was a savvy way to add middle infield depth.  With how good and durable Swanson/Hoerner are you'd be scraping the barrel for any veteran backup this year regardless of what money you offered.  Now Shaw insulates us from injury and also Nico's impending free agency

- Bregman's got a reputation as a top of the scale off the field guy.  Framber...very much does not

[Outshined_One]

Ask me this question again after Gallen signs (be it with the Cubs or elsewhere).

[CubUgly]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Both very good players.  Both are about the same age, Bregman is a few months younger.

I would prefer a productive every day player over a productive pitcher who plays every 5 games.  Hopefully Bregman ages well - Sharma says the Cubs models show that he will and they believe he will - like a Zobrist who signed with the Cubs at 34. 

[Bull]

3 hours ago, CubUgly said:

I would prefer a productive every day player over a productive pitcher who plays every 5 games.  Hopefully Bregman ages well - Sharma says the Cubs models show that he will and they believe he will - like a Zobrist who signed with the Cubs at 34. 

It’s not that different. 20 bf per 5 days, 20 abs per 5 days.

[Cuzi]

5 minutes ago, Bull said:

It’s not that different. 20 bf per 5 days, 20 abs per 5 days.

Roughly 6 innings vs 45.

Edited February 5 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

27 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Roughly 6 innings vs 45.

do you think that's really how it works

[Cuzi]

21 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

do you think that's really how it works

Bregman plays defense, does he not?

I would much rather have a position player vs pitcher during the regular season. Then it flips in the playoffs. You need both.

Bregman and Valdez are statistically equal value. I would much rather have Bregman in this case.

[CubUgly]

1 hour ago, Bull said:

It’s not that different. 20 bf per 5 days, 20 abs per 5 days.

But Bregman can affect every game and possibly be the deciding factor in those 5 days with a big hit or a stellar defensive play, the pitcher only one game in 5, and with the continued specialization even starters are lucky to be able to put their stamp on 2/3 of a game every 5 games. 

[Bull]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Bregman plays defense, does he not?

I would much rather have a position player vs pitcher during the regular season. Then it flips in the playoffs. You need both.

Bregman and Valdez are statistically equal value. I would much rather have Bregman in this case.

Yup. It’s different and I agree position player over pitcher. But not by much. As in I’d chose a top of the rotation pitcher over a bottom of the order hitter even with elite defense.

Bregman does play defense, but not so well for it make much difference over say Shaw. 
 

again you are right on. Judge over Skubal. But skubal over Bregman.

 

and to the original question Bregman. And that is without leadership ability factored in. But if you forget clubhouse leadership, 

 

im not disagreeing with you. And while I’m not inside your head, I think my opinion is that the margin is slimmer than your posts seem to indicate you think it is. 
 

my post “it’s not that different” which you quoted lacked nuance.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, CubUgly said:

But Bregman can affect every game and possibly be the deciding factor in those 5 days with a big hit or a stellar defensive play, the pitcher only one game in 5, and with the continued specialization even starters are lucky to be able to put their stamp on 2/3 of a game every 5 games. 

4 fWAR is 4 fWAR.  Does it really matter if it accumulates in big bunches every 5 games or trickles slower every day?

The thing with a top SP though is their value is amplified in the playoffs because they aren't starting every 5 games.

I've always considered the biggest mark against allocating large money to a SP over a position player is the big difference in injury risk.  Having 4 wins and 38m AAV of your payroll on the IL for a whole season from TJS could cost the Cubs or any team a playoff spot.  I suspect this may be a big reason why Hoyer puts the big contracts into position guys over SP.

The length of the Bregman vs Valdez contracts is a pretty big deal though too.  Makes things closer for me.

[CubUgly]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

4 fWAR is 4 fWAR.  Does it really matter if it accumulates in big bunches every 5 games or trickles slower every day?

The thing with a top SP though is their value is amplified in the playoffs because they aren't starting every 5 games.

I've always considered the biggest mark against allocating large money to a SP over a position player is the big difference in injury risk.  Having 4 wins and 38m AAV of your payroll on the IL for a whole season from TJS could cost the Cubs or any team a playoff spot.  I suspect this may be a big reason why Hoyer puts the big contracts into position guys over SP.

The length of the Bregman vs Valdez contracts is a pretty big deal though too.  Makes things closer for me.

I hear you and understand what you are saying Stratos,  I do understand the concept of WAR though it's not my favorite or what I'd call most bullet proof analytical measurement I understand it as a tool, but I just can't get past the fact that an SP can only affect 2/3 of a game out of 5 and a position player has a chance to affect 5 games out of those same 5.    

[Rcal10]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

4 fWAR is 4 fWAR.  Does it really matter if it accumulates in big bunches every 5 games or trickles slower every day?

The thing with a top SP though is their value is amplified in the playoffs because they aren't starting every 5 games.

I've always considered the biggest mark against allocating large money to a SP over a position player is the big difference in injury risk.  Having 4 wins and 38m AAV of your payroll on the IL for a whole season from TJS could cost the Cubs or any team a playoff spot.  I suspect this may be a big reason why Hoyer puts the big contracts into position guys over SP.

The length of the Bregman vs Valdez contracts is a pretty big deal though too.  Makes things closer for me.

I actually like Bregman’s contract better. I think he will be fine the length of the deal. I am glad he doesn’t have an opt out after 2 years. Also, with the deferred money, depending on what deferrals are in Valdez contract. He is cheaper annually. I understand your apprehension about him slipping. I get all the projections people love to use to explain it will happen. But there are guys who play well in their mid/late 30’s. Goldy won an MVP not long ago. He slipped his last 2 years. But he is in his late 30’s. Votto hit 36 homers at 37. Was putting up Bitto numbers in his early to mid 30’s. Bregman plays his last year with the Xubs at 36. I am not worried about him. He is a baseball rat. He works at it all the time. I believe he will age fine. 

[squally1313]

1 hour ago, CubUgly said:

I hear you and understand what you are saying Stratos,  I do understand the concept of WAR though it's not my favorite or what I'd call most bullet proof analytical measurement I understand it as a tool, but I just can't get past the fact that an SP can only affect 2/3 of a game out of 5 and a position player has a chance to affect 5 games out of those same 5.    

The pitcher is one of two players that are, far and away, the key components of every single play that takes place while he is on the mound. The third baseman can't make the ball come to him and can't take more than 11% of the PAs in a game. And then, defensively, you're taking about differences between making (to use a bad metric) 98 plays out of 100 vs 96 plays out of hundred. 

It's been referenced above, but don't think of it as games, think of it as plate appearances. 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I actually like Bregman’s contract better. I think he will be fine the length of the deal. I am glad he doesn’t have an opt out after 2 years. Also, with the deferred money, depending on what deferrals are in Valdez contract. He is cheaper annually. I understand your apprehension about him slipping. I get all the projections people love to use to explain it will happen. But there are guys who play well in their mid/late 30’s. Goldy won an MVP not long ago. He slipped his last 2 years. But he is in his late 30’s. Votto hit 36 homers at 37. Was putting up Bitto numbers in his early to mid 30’s. Bregman plays his last year with the Xubs at 36. I am not worried about him. He is a baseball rat. He works at it all the time. I believe he will age fine. 

Well let's hope you're right.  I'm sure some of the aging differences are due to a hitter's profile, and some of it just genetics.

No stats to back this up, but I do notice that a lot of the guys who do age better than others seem to often be 1B or DH types.  Like the guys you mentioned, and Freeman.  Maybe it's the less wear and tear on the body, or maybe those guys just tend to be better hitters.  Or maybe the stats don't really back it up LOL.  Who knows.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Well let's hope you're right.  I'm sure some of the aging differences are due to a hitter's profile, and some of it just genetics.

No stats to back this up, but I do notice that a lot of the guys who do age better than others seem to often be 1B or DH types.  Like the guys you mentioned, and Freeman.  Maybe it's the less wear and tear on the body, or maybe those guys just tend to be better hitters.  Or maybe the stats don't really back it up LOL.  Who knows.

Who knows? I just think he will age fine. Muncy had his two best years at 33 and 34. Judge has his 2 best years, so far, at 32 and 33. Do you think he will slip the next 2 years? I think, even slipping he will post a WAR close enough to his contract value, even at 35 and 36. 

[Geographyhater8888]

On 2/5/2026 at 8:41 AM, CubUgly said:

I would prefer a productive every day player over a productive pitcher who plays every 5 games.  Hopefully Bregman ages well - Sharma says the Cubs models show that he will and they believe he will - like a Zobrist who signed with the Cubs at 34. 

Bregman also bring other intangibles as a great teammate and asset In the clubhouse while Valdez crossed up his catcher intentionally. Another aspect of Bregman vs Valdez that can’t be quantified on a stat sheet.
 

 

[CubUgly]

22 hours ago, squally1313 said:

The pitcher is one of two players that are, far and away, the key components of every single play that takes place while he is on the mound. The third baseman can't make the ball come to him and can't take more than 11% of the PAs in a game. And then, defensively, you're taking about differences between making (to use a bad metric) 98 plays out of 100 vs 96 plays out of hundred. 

It's been referenced above, but don't think of it as games, think of it as plate appearances. 

I get it - a pitcher if he's good is responsible either directly or indirectly for maybe an average 20 outs over 6 half innings every 5 games.  I think breaking it down to no of plays/pitches and the value of that is debatable - as there is a lot of nuance to the degree of value that can be attached to every pitch and that pitcher's  results every pitch that IMHO are random - but I do see logic referencing that factor. 

We can go deep down the rabbit hole on this and I'm certainly not saying you are wrong and I am right.  But in this direct comaparison - Bregs vs.  Valdez, I'm taking Bregs even if before you factor in the unmeasurables like clubhouse leadership and other intangible values, which by all accounts Bregman brings more of.  

But I do absolutely understand your take here.

[Geographyhater8888]

15 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Who knows? I just think he will age fine. Muncy had his two best years at 33 and 34. Judge has his 2 best years, so far, at 32 and 33. Do you think he will slip the next 2 years? I think, even slipping he will post a WAR close enough to his contract value, even at 35 and 36. 

Considering that Jed is so particular and risk averse when it comes to free agents I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here that his models are correct and Bregman will live up to his contact and age well. 
 

The team as is is still a Juan Soto and Garret Crochet away from being NL favorites, and the lack of true star power is underwhelming. My hope is Steele, Horton and Cabrera stay healthy and become a potent rotation trio.

Edited February 7 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Considering that Jed is so particular and risk averse when it comes to free agents I’ll give him the benefit of the doubt here that his models are correct and Bregman will live up to his contact and age well. 
 

The team as is is still a Juan Soto and Garret Crochet away from being NL favorites, and the lack of true star power is underwhelming. My hope is Steele, Horton and Cabrera stay healthy and raise the teams ceiling. 

With the Dodgers in the NL, even Soto and Crochet wouldn’t make them favorites. Just realize the Dodgers will almost ALWAYS be favorites with the amount of money they will spend. Shoot for a definite playoff, division winning team and let the playoffs play out. 

[Geographyhater8888]

29 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

With the Dodgers in the NL, even Soto and Crochet wouldn’t make them favorites. Just realize the Dodgers will almost ALWAYS be favorites with the amount of money they will spend. Shoot for a definite playoff, division winning team and let the playoffs play out. 

Correct. I should’ve clarified our path to the World Series would be more than “just get in and anything can happen” to close to a coin flip. Our floor is as high as anyone’s outside of LA just not the ceiling. 

Edited February 7 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Correct. I should’ve clarified our path to the World Series would be more than “just get in and anything can happen”. Our floor is as high as anyone’s outside of LA just not the ceiling. 

I think the “just get in and anything can happen” model is downplaying the team a little. It just sounds too much like “maybe you get lucky”. I don’t see the Cubs team that way. They aren’t the Reds of last year or even the Dbacks the year they did go to the WS. If they win 90+ games I don’t view it as they need luck to beat the Dodgers. I see it as a series where the Dodgers have a 55%. To me that is better than “anything can happen, luck”.