Cubs Reportedly Interested In Reliever Ryan Helsley

[Stratos]

47 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

When does it shift from a dumpster dive to a FO who is good at finding value by evaluating talent? They did an amazing job last year and actually did well the year before. Does the FO ever get credit for finding guys who are more valuable than other FO think they are? I do want a proven guy, but I don’t think the FO should be criticized for finding cheap valuable talent. 

Seems clear that pitching development is far different now than it was 10-15 years so pens have to be built differently.

Jed said at the GM meetings that the Kittredge decision was mostly based on timing and needing to commit to him at the beginning of the offseason rather than having that money to sign arms late in the offseason.

There's 4+ months between the end of the regular season and ST.  That's a lot of development time. We know that any reliever these days can add a couple mph or a new/improved pitch in an offseason, or lose some velo or shape.  So teams aren't just going by stats from last season, I'm sure they often see recent Trackman data or attend workouts.  Waiting and sniping some trending guys in the new year for cheap (they got Keller on Jan 29 last year) is a good strategy, plus checking for declines for any FA veterans.

The Cubs are ahead of the curve here it seems.  Looks like they want some 2 yr deals for some consistency but otherwise are buying low on trending arms they can easily dump if they don't perform.

[Geographyhater8888]

9 hours ago, Stratos said:

Seems clear that pitching development is far different now than it was 10-15 years so pens have to be built differently.

Jed said at the GM meetings that the Kittredge decision was mostly based on timing and needing to commit to him at the beginning of the offseason rather than having that money to sign arms late in the offseason.

There's 4+ months between the end of the regular season and ST.  That's a lot of development time. We know that any reliever these days can add a couple mph or a new/improved pitch in an offseason, or lose some velo or shape.  So teams aren't just going by stats from last season, I'm sure they often see recent Trackman data or attend workouts.  Waiting and sniping some trending guys in the new year for cheap (they got Keller on Jan 29 last year) is a good strategy, plus checking for declines for any FA veterans.

The Cubs are ahead of the curve here it seems.  Looks like they want some 2 yr deals for some consistency but otherwise are buying low on trending arms they can easily dump if they don't perform.

Theo went out and signed Lester for 6/$155, Heyward for 8/$184 and Darvish for 6/$126. Part of that was the product of payroll flexibility with 6 starting position players and 2 starting pitchers under cheap team control but how much of Jed’s roster building due to philosophical differences as opposed to having less young cheap talent which forces him to budget accordingly?

[Geographyhater8888]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

When does it shift from a dumpster dive to a FO who is good at finding value by evaluating talent? They did an amazing job last year and actually did well the year before. Does the FO ever get credit for finding guys who are more valuable than other FO think they are? I do want a proven guy, but I don’t think the FO should be criticized for finding cheap valuable talent. 

The dumpster diving didn’t really pay off until around June or so and the 23-24 bullpen was disastrous in the early portion of both years. Signing sure handed relievers should in theory guarantee 6 months of a reliable bullpen and act as a silver bullet against the uncertainty of whether or not we’ll have the the bullpen from June-October or the lottery ticket arms from prior seasons with Neris coughing up 9th inning leads.

The bats masked some of their early season struggles of 25. Relying on over performance is a double edge sword.

Edited November 30, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Outshined_One]

This FO is fantastic at scouting relief pitchers so long as those pitchers never played for the Astros.

[Bertz]

I think several things are true:

- The Cubs are very good at finding undervalued relievers

- Because of the volatility, the bullpen is probably the least efficient place to put a marginal dollar on a baseball team

- Acquiring relievers isn't totally random.  More resources tends to improve reliability and stuff, even if not by as much as you'd expect

- The Cubs *full season* numbers have not been especially impressive for any bullpen in the Jed era.  In '21/'22 that was because of trade deadline selloffs, since then it's been because the unit has struggled early each year

- The bullpen coming into the winter was practically empty.  Palencia, Hodge (who ideally starts next season at Iowa), several quality long relief options, and a couple of Iowa lottery tickets

- Because the Cubs' roster is already fairly complete, there's not a lot of upgrade opportunities apart from the bullpen 

All told the Cubs should spend significantly more on the bullpen than they have historically.  They need both depth and impact talent.  At the same time we don't need to live and die with every signing.  The margins between a Ryan Helsley and a Pete Fairbanks and a Brad Keller are nominal.   Think in terms of tiers not specific names.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 hours ago, chibears55 said:

So a dumpster dive and hope it works out like usual....

Relievers aren't random number generators, but they're close to being random number generators.  10 relievers got 10 million+ AAV last year, only half of them had ERA's under 4.  Free Agents are less certain in their productivity than people think in general, but they are especially not as certain as people think when it comes to relievers. 

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The dumpster diving didn’t really pay off until around June or so and the 23-24 bullpen was disastrous in the early portion of both years. Signing sure handed relievers should in theory guarantee 6 months of a reliable bullpen and act as a silver bullet against the uncertainty of whether or not we’ll have the the bullpen from June-October or the lottery ticket arms from prior seasons with Neris coughing up 9th inning leads.

The bats masked some of their early season struggles of 25. Relying on over performance is a double edge sword.

The Cubs had the best BP ERA in May. So that's not true. It started to pay off starting about Mid-April once the Cubs moved on from Pressley as their "main" closer, shifting to a "committee" situation, and once they were able to switch out folks like Julian Merriweather. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs had the best BP ERA in May. So that's not true. It started to pay off starting about Mid-April once the Cubs moved on from Pressley as their "main" closer, shifting to a "committee" situation, and once they were able to switch out folks like Julian Merriweather. 

Right. So last year they went into the season with guys like Pressley, Merryweather, Hodges, and Pearson. All of them sucked. The ‘24 team also had Tyson Miller and Jorge Lopez, who were very good for them in ‘24. Yet, all those guys sucked last year. And they still put together a very good pen. The best starting in May. Which is why I don’t consider what the Cubs do in the pen  and dumpster dive. I think they seek out specific qualities in guys and that is who they bring in. And they are pretty good at it. That said, they do need to find a proven guy or two this off season. They can fill in the pen how they have previous. But they need someone (maybe 2 guys) who has experience in high leverage situations. And spending on that guy(s) would be fine. 

[Geographyhater8888]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs had the best BP ERA in May. So that's not true. It started to pay off starting about Mid-April once the Cubs moved on from Pressley as their "main" closer, shifting to a "committee" situation, and once they were able to switch out folks like Julian Merriweather. 

My bad. So what changed from last April relative to 23-24 outside of the typical fickleness of bullpen arms from year to the next? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Geographyhater8888 said:

My bad. So what changed from last April relative to 23-24 outside of the typical fickleness of bullpen arms from year to the next? 

1. You answered most of your own question.
2. Tyler Zombro was not apart of the Cubs organization in 23-24

Also it should be noted, all of the complaining about the 2023 BP or the the 2024 BP: the Cubs had the 12th ('23) and the 13th ('24) best BP per ERA. The idea that the BP was a disaster in either of those two seasons does not bare fruit. Now, you *can* point to a lack of K's in the bullpen, and that they out-performed their xFIP, but you can also point to them as reasons for praise; they were able to get over performance and use their defense, so it's a bit of a "6 in one hand, half dozen in the other" argument.

[Geographyhater8888]

15 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

1. You answered most of your own question.
2. Tyler Zombro was not apart of the Cubs organization in 23-24

Also it should be noted, all of the complaining about the 2023 BP or the the 2024 BP: the Cubs had the 12th ('23) and the 13th ('24) best BP per ERA. The idea that the BP was a disaster in either of those two seasons does not bare fruit. Now, you *can* point to a lack of K's in the bullpen, and that they out-performed their xFIP, but you can also point to them as reasons for praise; they were able to get over performance and use their defense, so it's a bit of a "6 in one hand, half dozen in the other" argument.

The high leverage relief, specifically Neris was disastrous before he was DFAd unless you have a stat to rebut with me with.  Zombro is interesting. I trust a CC hire over a David Ross hire. That’s surprising though specifically  2023. What does the data say on blown leads past the 7th inning from 23 and 24?

Edited November 30, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

The high leverage relief, specifically Neris was disastrous before he was DFAd unless you have a stat to rebut with me with.  Zombro is interesting. I trust a CC hire over a David Ross hire. That’s surprising though. What does the data say on blown leads past the 7th inning from 23 and 24?

Sure. But you didn't say "Hector Neris" you said the 2023-2024 bullpen. Yes, Neris was bad; the bullpen wasn't. Not every reliever will work out. 

Zombro is not a CC hire; he is an organizational hire. I also don't know why we wouldn't trust a David Ross hire. Where do you think Tommy Hottovy came from? He was here under Ross, too. 

Blowing leads is not really a great data point. Here's the thing; you can't blow a lead unless you have a lead, so good teams blow leads. The Dodgers, in 2023, had the 6th most blown leads but were a top-4 BP in terms of ERA. So I'm not sure any of that is useful data.

[Bertz]

The poor 1H performance of the 2024 pen is a point in favor of bullpen nihilism, not against.  Alzolay and Merryweather were certified monsters in 2023, and Neris' 2023 ERA overstated his level of impact but he still projected for for a 3.90 ERA coming into the season.

The Cubs had three high quality late inning options coming into the season, two had their arms explode and the 3rd lost the strikezone.  It sucks but I don't think it teaches you anything except that attrition is a horsefeathers.

[Geographyhater8888]

35 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Sure. But you didn't say "Hector Neris" you said the 2023-2024 bullpen. Yes, Neris was bad; the bullpen wasn't. Not every reliever will work out. 

Zombro is not a CC hire; he is an organizational hire. I also don't know why we wouldn't trust a David Ross hire. Where do you think Tommy Hottovy came from? He was here under Ross, too. 

Blowing leads is not really a great data point. Here's the thing; you can't blow a lead unless you have a lead, so good teams blow leads. The Dodgers, in 2023, had the 6th most blown leads but were a top-4 BP in terms of ERA. So I'm not sure any of that is useful data.

Blown late inning leads create the perception of a bad bullpen. You’ll remember allowing a 3 run homer up by 2 runs in the 9th inning more than a 3 run homer in the 9th inning up by 6 runs. That’s why I asked. 

Edited November 30, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

Blown late inning leads create the perception of a bad bullpen. You’ll remember allowing a 3 run homer up by 2 runs in the 9th inning more than a 3 run homer in the 9th inning up by 6 runs. That’s why I asked. 

Going one step further, fans will remember and comment forever when the pen comes in the 6th inning with the cubs having a one run lead and they end up blowing it, then they will about a pen who goes 2 weeks without allowing a run.  The pen is just something all fans love to complain about. I guarantee that no matter where the Cubs pen ends up this year, it will be complained about all year. It was last year.

[Tryptamine]

I know they've been good at finding pen arms. They've also spent prospect capital the last two years at the trade deadline acquiring pen arms, so obviously it wasn't enough.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I know they've been good at finding pen arms. They've also spent prospect capital the last two years at the trade deadline acquiring pen arms, so obviously it wasn't enough.

Every team in playoff contention spends prospect capital at the deadline to acquire pen arms.

[Rcal10]

18 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Every team in playoff contention spends prospect capital at the deadline to acquire pen arms.

Padres are a perfect example. They had a great pen and still traded a top 5 prospect in the game to get Miller. You are right, all teams look to pen help, no matter what they have in the pen.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Jason Ross said:

Also it should be noted, all of the complaining about the 2023 BP or the the 2024 BP: the Cubs had the 12th ('23) and the 13th ('24) best BP per ERA. The idea that the BP was a disaster in either of those two seasons does not bare fruit. Now, you *can* point to a lack of K's in the bullpen, and that they out-performed their xFIP, but you can also point to them as reasons for praise; they were able to get over performance and use their defense, so it's a bit of a "6 in one hand, half dozen in the other" argument.

The pen in 23 and 24 eventually became effective.  Unfortunately they were bad until June in both years before they figured out who was and wasn't effective and were able to dump the lame arms (and it possibly cost them a playoff spot both years).  Basically trial and error.  Not sure if this is entirely avoidable in this era unless they go out sign guys like Diaz who are still effective even when they're off.  But if you spend on a guy like Diaz that money is being taken from another position in the budget like SP and weakening it, and there's still no guarantees.

Pearson was sort of their Merryweather/Keller project but just didn't work out, so yeah there's definitely luck involved there.

Even though small samples are volatile I do think better talent will be more likely to perform better during those samples.  e.g. Juan Soto might have a bad month but he's more likely to have good month than an average hitter.  But for relievers is it worth the money?  If their plan is to win a WS it might be.

[chibears55]

On 11/29/2025 at 9:00 PM, Rcal10 said:

When does it shift from a dumpster dive to a FO who is good at finding value by evaluating talent? They did an amazing job last year and actually did well the year before. Does the FO ever get credit for finding guys who are more valuable than other FO think they are? I do want a proven guy, but I don’t think the FO should be criticized for finding cheap valuable talent. 

A couple things...

When you pluck a bunch of guys out of the dumpster you might get lucky once in a while that one or two could end up with a decent season, but the risk factor to that is likely a slow start out of your bullpen the first couple of months until those guys start figuring it out as a unit.

Jed may get lucky to find the cream of the slop every now and than but at some point you'd like for him to sign or trade for proven pitcher(s) too and nit just hope to catch lightning in a bottle with reclamation guys. 

Edited December 1, 2025 by chibears55

[Rcal10]

55 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

A couple things...

When you pluck a bunch of guys out of the dumpster you might get lucky once in a while that one or two could end up with a decent season, but the risk factor to that is likely a slow start out of your bullpen the first couple of months until those guys start figuring it out as a unit.

Jed may get lucky to find the cream of the slop every now and than but at some point you'd like for him to sign or trade for proven pitcher(s) too and nit just hope to catch lightning in a bottle with reclamation guys. 

I agree that they should spend on one more and maybe even 2 more solid pen arms. But I don’t think it is just luck, what they do. And as for a pen taking time to gel, the issues with the pen last year were not guys they signed in the off season. They were guys they depended on because they were pretty good the year before. Same thing with the ‘24 season. If I remember correctly Alzolay blew 5 games early. He was someone they depended on. In ‘25 the worst pen guys early were Pressley, who they traded for, Merryweather, Pearson and Hodge. Might as well add Morgan too. The cheap FA pickups were fine. That said, sure they miss on some. And sometimes it does take a little time to gel. But that happens with “proven” arms too. Last year Williams and Scott were supposed to be great pen arms. The year before Hader was terrible the fist month of the season. Bednar sucked in ‘24 as well.
It happens to good relievers too. I am fine with Jed and the FO evaluating cheap pen talent. However , this year since they aren’t spending much elsewhere they should look to the pen to spend on a few. And then find cheap talent. We all know they have a lot is spots to fill. 

[Geographyhater8888]

On 11/30/2025 at 2:14 PM, Rcal10 said:

Going one step further, fans will remember and comment forever when the pen comes in the 6th inning with the cubs having a one run lead and they end up blowing it, then they will about a pen who goes 2 weeks without allowing a run.  The pen is just something all fans love to complain about. I guarantee that no matter where the Cubs pen ends up this year, it will be complained about all year. It was last year.

Like Latroy Hawkins and his 2.63 ERA in 2004. It’s obscured of course by coughing up a 3 run homer to victor Cruz and blowing 9 saves in 34 chances. 

Edited December 2, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Geographyhater8888]

On 11/30/2025 at 2:14 PM, Rcal10 said:

Going one step further, fans will remember and comment forever when the pen comes in the 6th inning with the cubs having a one run lead and they end up blowing it, then they will about a pen who goes 2 weeks without allowing a run.  The pen is just something all fans love to complain about. I guarantee that no matter where the Cubs pen ends up this year, it will be complained about all year. It was last year.

That and Ian Happ. 

Edited December 2, 2025 by Geographyhater8888

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That and Ian Happ. 

👍

[Bull]

3 hours ago, Geographyhater8888 said:

That and Ian Happ. 

Ian Happ does not return his grocery cart to the cart return.