Shota Imanaga Expected To Decline Qualifying Offer From Cubs

[ILMindState]

The luxury tax might not even be a thing after 2027, so maybe, just MAYBE, Tommy isn't scared of that scary line this year.

[chibears55]

3 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I don't think Jed and his team are totally incompetent, so I have to believe they factored in the possibility that Shota would take the offer. If this is true, it shouldn't stop them from their plans. 

In other words, I don't think they'd play chicken with $20M just for a compensation pick. 

I think Hoyer was hoping they both took the QO for the year because I don't think they're looking to go out and sign anyone for more than 2 years.  Swanson is the only player with a guarenteed contract after 2026, and I can see TR and Jed wanting to wait and see what the new CBA brings before adding any sizeable multi year deals.

It obviously would be great if they can go out and get another solid TOR SP, a big bat to replace Tucker's bat, and a couple solid pen arms but I just think 2026 is going to be more about trading away guys on final year of contract and getting guys like Caissie, Ballesteros, etc on the field more.

Go into the 2026 offseason with pretty much a clean book so they can get a head start and plan their moves after the new CBA.

 

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Go into the 2026 offseason with pretty much a clean book so they can get a head start and plan their moves after the new CBA.

How many years have we been saying next year?

When is next year ever going to come?

Shota accepts the QO and the thought process around here turns to looking at cheap controlled pitchers to trade for because the money to sign someone was just eatin up.

It's long past time to simply realize the thought process behind what drives this FO is not the thought process that drives other large market teams. There are teams that actively build for a WS and there are teams that build for the regular season and hope and pray the ball bounces in their favor for 4 series in a row against at least a couple teams building for a WS. The Cubs are the latter. A large market being captained by small market minds that cant even dominate their own division filled with teams that sink or swim with the talent they get out of the draft.

You say "It obviously would be great if they could..." as if they cant do those things. They very much can. They choose not to and we sit here as fans trying to make excuses for it while still filling the seats acting like its acceptable the team isn't willing to pay for a Kyle Tucker.

[Backtobanks]

2 hours ago, Rex Buckingham said:

Does Jamo have any kind of no trade protection? I could see him being moved for a bat and a separate deal being made for a SP that we'd get mroe excited about (Ryan, Gore, etc.) or maybe Jamo could even be a part of that deal to replace innings for the team giving up the main SP piece

Assuming we get a TOR, the rotation looks strong and with Steele coming back in May/June, Jamo would be a strong deadline trade asset.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Backtobanks said:

Assuming we get a TOR, the rotation looks strong and with Steele coming back in May/June, Jamo would be a strong deadline trade asset.

I think someone already mentioned this, but if the Cubs are going to trade a guy like Taillon, it won't be at the deadline.  Unless you think they are going to be selling at the deadline, which would be a problem.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I think someone already mentioned this, but if the Cubs are going to trade a guy like Taillon, it won't be at the deadline.  Unless you think they are going to be selling at the deadline, which would be a problem.

Not in the scenerio banks laid out. If they get a starter in a trade (let’s say Cabrera) they then start the season with 5 definite starters. Now if Steele comes back and there are no injuries they have 6. They still probably have Rea, and 2 of the following (Wicks, Brown, Assad) plus the possibility of Wiggins coming up. They can absolutely be in the race and winning the division and still trade Taillon. This is provided they are getting good results from the other pitchers. Shota looks like 2024 Shota, Steele if pitching injury free, Boyd is doing well and Horton and Cabrera are also doing well. They can afford to deal Taillon at the deadline even if they are winning the division. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

How many years have we been saying next year?

When is next year ever going to come?

Shota accepts the QO and the thought process around here turns to looking at cheap controlled pitchers to trade for because the money to sign someone was just eatin up.

It's long past time to simply realize the thought process behind what drives this FO is not the thought process that drives other large market teams. There are teams that actively build for a WS and there are teams that build for the regular season and hope and pray the ball bounces in their favor for 4 series in a row against at least a couple teams building for a WS. The Cubs are the latter. A large market being captained by small market minds that cant even dominate their own division filled with teams that sink or swim with the talent they get out of the draft.

You say "It obviously would be great if they could..." as if they cant do those things. They very much can. They choose not to and we sit here as fans trying to make excuses for it while still filling the seats acting like its acceptable the team isn't willing to pay for a Kyle Tucker.

We all know they can afford to go over the Threshold, but, we all know it very likely they wont do it, as TR has only done so 3 times since he bought the team 16 years ago.

It not making excuses for them, it pretty much knowing how they run their franchise and refuse to spend over the Threshold, while also making sure they have what 20+ under the Threshold in case they need to add on during the season. 

I dont like it or accept it, but as a die hard Cubs fan since the 70s, it sadly has been the offseason expectations when it comes to Cubs owners spending on my favorite team.

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Cuzi said:

How many years have we been saying next year?

When is next year ever going to come?

Shota accepts the QO and the thought process around here turns to looking at cheap controlled pitchers to trade for because the money to sign someone was just eatin up.

It's long past time to simply realize the thought process behind what drives this FO is not the thought process that drives other large market teams. There are teams that actively build for a WS and there are teams that build for the regular season and hope and pray the ball bounces in their favor for 4 series in a row against at least a couple teams building for a WS. The Cubs are the latter. A large market being captained by small market minds that cant even dominate their own division filled with teams that sink or swim with the talent they get out of the draft.

You say "It obviously would be great if they could..." as if they cant do those things. They very much can. They choose not to and we sit here as fans trying to make excuses for it while still filling the seats acting like its acceptable the team isn't willing to pay for a Kyle Tucker.

The thought process around here should be expected. It is what the Cubs do. I am. It saying what the Cubs do is right. It’s not. They should spend. But when Shota eats up $22M of the $65-$70M they most likely will spend(hopefully, at least that much anyway) the fan base is very correct to assume they won’t do certain things. Again, I agree with you that it isn’t right that this large market team is run this way. It shouldn’t be. But since it is, why should fans be talking about Cease and Tucker when we know they aren’t coming? 

Edited November 19, 2025 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

We all know they can afford to go over the Threshold, but, we all know it very likely they wont do it, as TR has only done so 3 times since he bought the team 16 years ago.

It not making excuses for them, it pretty much knowing how they run their franchise and refuse to spend over the Threshold, while also making sure they have what 20+ under the Threshold in case they need to add on during the season. 

I dont like it or accept it, but as a die hard Cubs fan since the 70s, it sadly has been the offseason expectations when it comes to Cubs owners spending on my favorite team.

Cool. So then why do you expect them to do it next year?

Remember the time we were counting down the days til Jason Heyward was no longer on the books and the Cubs could finally go out and get that star player.

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

The thought process around here should be expected. It is what the Cubs do. I am. It saying what the Cubs do is right. It’s not. They should spend. But when Shota eats up $22M of the $65-$70M they most likely will spend(hopefully, at least that much anyway) the fan base is very correct to assume they won’t do certain things. Again, I agree with you that it isn’t right that this large market team is run this way. It shouldn’t be. But since it is, why should fans be talking about Cease and Tucker when we know they aren’t coming? 

Empty the stadium like the Cardinals fans did.

[Outshined_One]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

They can afford to deal Taillon at the deadline even if they are winning the division. 

The problem with that presumption is that Taillon is performing well enough to merit a team in contention giving up assets to acquire him.  If Taillon is good enough to merit trade interest, I don't think the Cubs will want to trade him, especially given how injuries to the rotation sunk the team going into the playoffs.

[Jason Ross]

There a plenty of issues why a team in contention won't trade a useful SP. @Outshined_One explained one reason. Another reason why is that injuries may force the Cubs hand to keep him; we know how often pitchers get hurt. 

You trade him now and ensure you're covered or you don't trade him at all (unless the Cubs are terrible which they shouldn't be). There isn't much of a world where the Cubs are good and they sell Taillon in July. There is a reason contending teams don't trade SP's. The Cubs aren't going to do it.

 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The problem with that presumption is that Taillon is performing well enough to merit a team in contention giving up assets to acquire him.  If Taillon is good enough to merit trade interest, I don't think the Cubs will want to trade him, especially given how injuries to the rotation sunk the team going into the playoffs.

It isn’t my presumption. It is a scenerio that could happen. Banks suggested trading Taillon at the deadline. He was clearly talking about having a strong rotation to the point of being able to trade Taillon. The next post suggested the only way they would do that was if they were not contending. I just pointed out that was not what he was saying. And if they went to the deadline with 6 healthy starters they can move Jamo. This year they were always a guy short and also had a couple guys on fumes. So they ran out of pitchers. If they have 6 healthy pitchers pitching well at this deadline and still have Rea, Assad, Wicks and Wiggins as possible options if needed, that is a far cry from what happened last year. So they can trade him. I am not advocating this. I am just giving the scenario that I believe banks was coming from. 

[Rcal10]

10 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

There a plenty of issues why a team in contention won't trade a useful SP. @Outshined_One explained one reason. Another reason why is that injuries may force the Cubs hand to keep him; we know how often pitchers get hurt. 

You trade him now and ensure you're covered or you don't trade him at all (unless the Cubs are terrible which they shouldn't be). There isn't much of a world where the Cubs are good and they sell Taillon in July. There is a reason contending teams don't trade SP's. The Cubs aren't going to do it.

 

I disagree. There could be a very good reason for not trading Taillon now but then dealing him at the deadline. If the Cubs aren’t sure what they get out of Steele or Imanaga they would hold onto Jano now. But if Steele comes back healthy and Shota is looking like 2024 Shota and all pitchers are healthy, they can deal Taillon. All you have to do is look back to 2022 when the Yankees (who won the division) traded Montgomery to the Cardinals at the deadline to know it does happen. And the scenerio j just laid out is the scenerio where it could happen.  I am in no way suggesting it will happen. I am just saying the Cubs can be contending (which I believe they will be) and still trade Taillon at the deadline. Probably not for a prospect. But for a bat as a part time starter, solid platoon hitter, or a pen arm. 
 

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I disagree. There could be a very good reason for not trading Taillon now but then dealing him at the deadline. If the Cubs aren’t sure what they get out of Steele or Imanaga they would hold onto Jano now. But if Steele comes back healthy and Shota is looking like 2024 Shota and all pitchers are healthy, they can deal Taillon. All you have to do is look back to 2022 when the Yankees (who won the division) traded Montgomery to the Cardinals at the deadline to know it does happen. And the scenerio j just laid out is the scenerio where it could happen.  I am in no way suggesting it will happen. I am just saying the Cubs can be contending (which I believe they will be) and still trade Taillon at the deadline. Probably not for a prospect. But for a bat as a part time starter, solid platoon hitter, or a pen arm. 
 

The Cubs have spent all offseason so far with the biggest talking point of "we didn't have enough depth in the pitching staff last year after the deadline" and that they couldn't find adequate prices on pitching to supplement the staff at the the deadline. The Cubs are incredibly unlikely to then, turn around in July and sell pitching. They're far more likely to hoard depth. 

Taillon has a NTC. At the deadline, the teams on the NTC could very well be the teams who are contending making it even harder to move. 

It's a pipe dream. The Cubs aren't trading him mid year unless they're bad. Even if they have six starting pitchers, or seven, they'll find a way to keep them, I'm sure. They know an injury or two could sink them. 

They will either trade Taillon this offseason and adequately supplement their depth then, or he'll be on the Cubs until next offseason unless the Cubs are terrible. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

The Cubs have spent all offseason so far with the biggest talking point of "we didn't have enough depth in the pitching staff last year after the deadline" and that they couldn't find adequate prices on pitching to supplement the staff at the the deadline. The Cubs are incredibly unlikely to then, turn around in July and sell pitching. They're far more likely to hoard depth. 

Taillon has a NTC. At the deadline, the teams on the NTC could very well be the teams who are contending making it even harder to move. 

It's a pipe dream. The Cubs aren't trading him mid year unless they're bad.

Agree to disagree. I am done with this. 

[Bertz]

FWIW with Shota locked into the other spot this is how I'd rank the SPs on the market, trying to combine impact + cost:

Group 1: Cease / Cabrera / Gore

Group 2: Imai / Ryan / Valdez / Pablo Lopez

Group 3: King / Alcantara / Suarez

Group 4: Bubic / Ponce / Gallen

Broadly I'd be ecstatic for a Group 1 guy, happy with a Group 2 guy, disappointed in a Group 3 guy, and upset about a Group 4 guy. I like a lot of the Group 3 + 4 guys in isolation, but if we're punting on the position player side they just don't provide an appropriate level of oomf.  

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, Bertz said:

FWIW with Shota locked into the other spot this is how I'd rank the SPs on the market, trying to combine impact + cost:

Group 1: Cease / Cabrera / Gore

Group 2: Imai / Ryan / Valdez / Pablo Lopez

Group 3: King / Alcantara / Suarez

Group 4: Bubic / Ponce / Gallen

Broadly I'd be ecstatic for a Group 1 guy, happy with a Group 2 guy, disappointed in a Group 3 guy, and upset about a Group 4 guy. I like a lot of the Group 3 + 4 guys in isolation, but if we're punting on the position player side they just don't provide an appropriate level of oomf.  

I think the Cease ship has sailed. I agree with you about being estatic about any in that group, but I think it has to come via trade. I think Valdez and Suarez are out of reach as well. From a FA perspective I can only see King, if he can be had for 3 or 4 years averaging around $22M (and you wouldn’t be happy with him) and Imai. So, to me, the only way this can realistically work out to your satisfaction is via a trade for Cabrera, Gore, Lopez or Ryan, or they sign Imai. 

[chibears55]

4 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Cool. So then why do you expect them to do it next year?

Remember the time we were counting down the days til Jason Heyward was no longer on the books and the Cubs could finally go out and get that star player.

Expect them to do what? I didn't give any expectation for 2026 offseason. 

I said TR and Hoyer could probably want a somewhat clear book going into that offseason to see what the new CBA brings over committing to long term deals this offseason. 

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I think the Cease ship has sailed. I agree with you about being estatic about any in that group, but I think it has to come via trade. I think Valdez and Suarez are out of reach as well. From a FA perspective I can only see King, if he can be had for 3 or 4 years averaging around $22M (and you wouldn’t be happy with him) and Imai. So, to me, the only way this can realistically work out to your satisfaction is via a trade for Cabrera, Gore, Lopez or Ryan, or they sign Imai. 

In 2026 dollars there's not really a major difference between someone like Cease and someone like King.  Sure Cease is going to get a contract roughly twice as large but it's going to get spread over roughly twice as many years.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

In 2026 dollars there's not really a major difference between someone like Cease and someone like King.  Sure Cease is going to get a contract roughly twice as large but it's going to get spread over roughly twice as many years.

If that is the case, and if Imai is going to be a $20M yearly commitment as well, then I think the only way they will get a TOR starter is through a trade. I figured, before Shota, the Cubs would sign a FA pitcher and then trade for one. Total cost of 2 of them would be $35M-$40M. So any FA pitcher was an option because even if they went big on Cease they can trade for Ryan, Gore or Cabrera. But if they signed King or Suarez they can add Alcantara and Lopez into the mix of options. Now that Shota took up $22M I don’t see another $25M+ going towards a pitcher. I know it shouldn’t matter. A lot of money comes off the books next year. And IMO the landscape of baseball will be spending more money. So the Cubs shouldn’t have anything to worry about. But I fear they will use the LT as an excuse not to spend on a TOR starter. 

[Backtobanks]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Not in the scenerio banks laid out. If they get a starter in a trade (let’s say Cabrera) they then start the season with 5 definite starters. Now if Steele comes back and there are no injuries they have 6. They still probably have Rea, and 2 of the following (Wicks, Brown, Assad) plus the possibility of Wiggins coming up. They can absolutely be in the race and winning the division and still trade Taillon. This is provided they are getting good results from the other pitchers. Shota looks like 2024 Shota, Steele if pitching injury free, Boyd is doing well and Horton and Cabrera are also doing well. They can afford to deal Taillon at the deadline even if they are winning the division. 

Using my scenario, a great reason to trade Taillon at the deadline is to get something of value to complement the roster rather than letting him walk and get nothing at the end of the season.

 

[Proven Veteran]

Why is everyone so confident that Cease is still a TOR pitcher? I'd be nervous about signing him to big money.

[Outshined_One]

6 minutes ago, Proven Veteran said:

Why is everyone so confident that Cease is still a TOR pitcher? I'd be nervous about signing him to big money.

Stuff, consistency, and durability.  He's pitched 160+ IP each season since 2021 and posted 3+ fWAR in each of those seasons.

I think it's best to think about Cease like Jon Lester when he was signed to a six year deal going into the 2015 season.  The hope was that his production in the first half of the contract would offset the decline in the back half of his deal, and Lester delivered that in spades, even though he started to decline in 2017 and was next to worthless at the end of the deal.  You're pretty much banking on a comparable result with Cease, with the added benefit of Cease is a bit younger than Lester was in 2015.

[Jason Ross]

38 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Using my scenario, a great reason to trade Taillon at the deadline is to get something of value to complement the roster rather than letting him walk and get nothing at the end of the season.

 

Teams almost never trade MLB for MLB at the deadline. And while SP prices are up, Taillon isn't a front line starter, and on an expiring deal. You're not looking at a lot of value. You'll get something back, sure, but if he's pitched well enough to get value, chances are the Cubs aren't just...trading him in July if their season is looking like one that ends in the playoffs or beyond. They're not going to replace him with a rookie like Wiggins at that stage, and it's very likely between OD and July that one (if not two or three) of: Shota, Horton, Steele, Boyd or new-guy are already on the shelf (remember, every member of the Cubs rotation outside of Boyd spent time on the IL). At that point the value they'd extra from Taillon in July probably won't be worth the value he can provide the team as depth or on the rotation. Too risky for the type of return you'd expect from a #4 SP on an expiring deal. 

The Cubs are almost assuredly never going to be in a position to move Taillon in July. It's this off-season and plan for the depth or he's a Cub unless they are terrible. Hoyer loves depth. He won't trade off of it at the deadline if the Cubs are good.