Tatsuya Imai to the Astros

[thawv]

16 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Roster resource is great, but you're using it incorrectly. You're using the crowd sourced contracts like they mean something. Use roster resource for actual terms (not Spotrac who is terrible). Here, compare what crowd sourced contracts are compared to what guys got to see how well they're doing this offseason:

Dylan Cease - 5/$130m vs 7/$210m 
Kye Schwarber - 4/$112m - vs 5/$150m 
Pete Alonso - 4/$105m vs 5/$155m 

Edwin Diaz got less year but the same AAV. Josh Naylor almost directly on it. Michael King did much better in AAV and got a highly player-friendly contract. Crowd sourcing gets you much lower than what these guys are getting. Using Imai's numbers there is going to put you $20-$50m low on his total. 4/$64m isn't happening. 

This should tell you that while crowd sourcing can get a temperature, they're not doing well this year. We can't see how much these guys are over performing these numbers, then look at the reported numbers on Imai (which have ranged from around $80m on the low end to $200m on the high end) and think 4/$64m makes sense.
 

I don't know how to find what you are referring to.  I only see crowd source on the page.  Is there another place to find predictions? 

[Jason Ross]

Just now, thawv said:

I don't know how to find what you are referring to.  I only see crowd source on the page.  Is there another place to find predictions? 

Roster resource does not have predictions like that. You have to find predictions elsewhere. 

[Hortonhearsawho]

In theory this should be wrapped up today but it is Boras so he might have other ideas lol. 

[Cuzi]

Just in case he doesnt sign with the Cubs, does every one have their "I never really like him that much and the Cubs are lucky they didn't spend that much" posts locked and loaded ready to fire?

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Just in case he doesnt sign with the Cubs, does every one have their "I never really like him that much and the Cubs are lucky they didn't spend that much" posts locked and loaded ready to fire?

I'll remain on the record that I think Tatsuya Imai is one of the best SPs on the market. I do think there is some inherent risk in his control and his pitch mix, but I'll remain bummed if he isn't here, regardless. So you wont catch that from me.

I've been the high-man here and I'll remain that if he's in Chicago or Philadelphia or wherever. 

[mk49]

12 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Just in case he doesnt sign with the Cubs, does every one have their "I never really like him that much and the Cubs are lucky they didn't spend that much" posts locked and loaded ready to fire?

Not unless he sucks bad, like I felt lucky the Cubs didn't get Tanner Scott, although Scott will most likely bounce back.

Even if Imai doesn't sign with the Cubs, I would be interested in him.

[Rcal10]

33 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Just in case he doesnt sign with the Cubs, does every one have their "I never really like him that much and the Cubs are lucky they didn't spend that much" posts locked and loaded ready to fire?

There are probably more people lining up to bitch about whatever the Cubs end up doing than there are Cub apologists. 
 

Edited December 31, 2025 by Rcal10

[Hortonhearsawho]

I'm team sign good players whether that player is Imai, Bregman etc I just want to see the Cubs add good players to their roster and improve the team. But I'm not particularly attached to one name as their are a lot of good players out there.

[ILMindState]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

There are probably more people lining up to bitch about whatever the Cubs end up doing than there are Cub apologists. 
 

I got these two posts on draft ready to go.

"Hoyer is such an idiot for signing Imai, he was bidding against himself. Nobody else even wanted him!"

"Hoyer is such an idiot for not signing Imai, he was right there for the taking. He'll never land the big fish!"

[Jason Ross]

 

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

I got these two posts on draft ready to go.

"Hoyer is such an idiot for signing Imai, he was bidding against himself. Nobody else even wanted him!"

"Hoyer is such an idiot for not signing Imai, he was right there for the taking. He'll never land the big fish!"

Exactly. Well done. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

 

Is Imai the 2nd or the 4th? 

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Is Imai the 2nd or the 4th? 

Imai the 2nd, Okamoto the 4th.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Is Imai the 2nd or the 4th? 

2nd. Okamoto the 4th. Both are Boras clients. 

[mk49]

2 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

2nd. Okamoto the 4th. Both are Boras clients. 

I guess Boras wants to finish Imai and Okamoto first, and then move to Bregman, Gallen.....  He must be really busy.

Edited December 31, 2025 by mk49

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, mk49 said:

I guess Boras wants to finish Imai and Okamoto first, and then move to Bregman, Gallen.....  He must be really busy.

Not sure it's always about want. Cease and Alonso have signed. These two just have deadlines and the other two dont. The market is slow.

[mk49]

Just now, Jason Ross said:

Not sure it's always about want. Cease and Alonso have signed. These two just have deadlines and the other two dont. The market is slow.

What I meant was "right now", he wants to be done with those two with deadlines coming very soon.  Yes, the market has been slow this winter, and it's kind of frustrating for many of us, not just for the Cubs fans.

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, mk49 said:

What I meant was "right now", he wants to be done with those two with deadlines coming very soon.  Yes, the market has been slow this winter, and it's kind of frustrating for many of us, not just for the Cubs fans.

Eh, it is what it is. In the end, the off-season isn't the entertainment, so it's whatever for me. They can take as long as they want; I'd rather they not add in artificial deadlines. With NPB players I kind of get it because their teams need to know what's going on if they're leaving. 

But again, I don't think "want" is the word Id go for. "Has to". These guys have to sign before those days. 

[mk49]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

Eh, it is what it is. In the end, the off-season isn't the entertainment, so it's whatever for me. They can take as long as they want; I'd rather they not add in artificial deadlines. With NPB players I kind of get it because their teams need to know what's going on if they're leaving. 

But again, I don't think "want" is the word Id go for. "Has to". These guys have to sign before those days. 

Yeah, I guess "has to" could've been the words.  The slow market is frustrating, but somewhat exciting at the same time.

Edited December 31, 2025 by mk49

[Bertz]

He was certainly not major by the time we got to him but Hosmer was NYE I believe.

Hendry used to horsefeathering LOVE new years eve signings.  I think he did 3 or 4, most notably Marlon Byrd.

That said this whole thing continues to look bad for Imai and Okamoto's prospects of getting paid like they were hoping for.  You only take this down to the wire if you have a ton of leverage or very little, and the deafening silence certainly points to the latter.

[Outshined_One]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

You only take this down to the wire if you have a ton of leverage or very little, and the deafening silence certainly points to the latter.

Okamoto is unsurprising in terms of the silence to me, considering he seems to be on a similar level as Murakami as a hitter with questions about how he'd transition to the majors.  There's been a bit of chatter about him here or there, but I got the sense he wasn't exceedingly high on any teams' wish lists.

Imai is one hell of a head-scratcher, though.  I'll grant he's not on the same level as guys like Yamamoto, Sasaki, and Daisuke Matsuzaka when they came over, and they attracted interest from the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox, which naturally came with more media babble and leaks.  Everything has been so weirdly quiet with Imai.  It tells me that the teams involved with bidding on him either are teams which are traditionally tight-lipped or teams which don't generally attract much media attention.

I guess you can say that's a good thing for the Cubs' chances, but normally by now we'd be hearing chatter about haggling over his rumored posting fee and dark horse teams entering the bidding process, and instead we've only seen vague social media posts and speculation about what teams are actually interested.

You can't help but speculate that there might be medical issues that have popped up when he's gone in for physicals, because not much else makes a whole lot of sense.

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

 

You can't help but speculate that there might be medical issues that have popped up when he's gone in for physicals, because not much else makes a whole lot of sense.

I never considered that but it makes a lot of sense. 

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

Okamoto is unsurprising in terms of the silence to me, considering he seems to be on a similar level as Murakami as a hitter with questions about how he'd transition to the majors.  There's been a bit of chatter about him here or there, but I got the sense he wasn't exceedingly high on any teams' wish lists.

Imai is one hell of a head-scratcher, though.  I'll grant he's not on the same level as guys like Yamamoto, Sasaki, and Daisuke Matsuzaka when they came over, and they attracted interest from the Dodgers/Yankees/Red Sox, which naturally came with more media babble and leaks.  Everything has been so weirdly quiet with Imai.  It tells me that the teams involved with bidding on him either are teams which are traditionally tight-lipped or teams which don't generally attract much media attention.

I guess you can say that's a good thing for the Cubs' chances, but normally by now we'd be hearing chatter about haggling over his rumored posting fee and dark horse teams entering the bidding process, and instead we've only seen vague social media posts and speculation about what teams are actually interested.

You can't help but speculate that there might be medical issues that have popped up when he's gone in for physicals, because not much else makes a whole lot of sense.

I'll preface this with saying that I know this is a conspiracy theory and I have nothing to back it up but:

I kind of wonder if the Cubs and Boras have a little bit of an agreement here that the Cubs interest in Imai/Okamoto won't really be leaked by Boras in his normal thing and in exchange for that, they're being allowed to be played up for other Boras clients (Gallen, Alonso, Bregman). 

I have no idea how these things work on the back end, but their interest in some of these guys feels spotty when Imai and Okamoto always felt more likely in terms of fit and finish. And with their posting dates so close, the Cubs could concievably announce both at the same time which would probably cause a pretty major buzz.  

Like I said, conspiracy theory. It's a tin-foil hat thing that I know remains far-fetched and I don't think it's really what's going down.

[Rcal10]

6 minutes ago, Jason Ross said:

I'll preface this with saying that I know this is a conspiracy theory and I have nothing to back it up but:

I kind of wonder if the Cubs and Boras have a little bit of an agreement here that the Cubs interest in Imai/Okamoto won't really be leaked by Boras in his normal thing and in exchange for that, they're being allowed to be played up for other Boras clients (Gallen, Alonso, Bregman). 

I have no idea how these things work on the back end, but their interest in some of these guys feels spotty when Imai and Okamoto always felt more likely in terms of fit and finish. And with their posting dates so close, the Cubs could concievably announce both at the same time which would probably cause a pretty major buzz.  

Like I said, conspiracy theory. It's a tin-foil hat thing that I know remains far-fetched and I don't think it's really what's going down.

If it got the Cubs Imai and Okamoto that would be awesome. But like you said, just a conspiracy theory. But I like it. 

[Outshined_One]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I never considered that but it makes a lot of sense. 

It does!  If he went in for a physical with a team, and it turns out he'll likely need surgery in the near future, that team would have zero incentive to leak it (let him be someone else's problem) and Imai's people would clam up about it.  In that case, either the team would cut him loose or the parties would go back to the negotiating table to work around it.