Was Monday Night Shota Imanaga's Last Start in a Cubs Uniform?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Michael McLoone-Imagn Images

Unless the Cubs force a decisive Game 5 in their National League Division Series showdown with the Milwaukee Brewers, they won't give the ball to Shota Imanaga again this season. It's been an uneven second season on the North Side for Imanaga, who was their ace for much of 2024 and was shaping up to fill the same role for them early this year—but who has been less consistent and more vulnerable to home runs since returning to the rotation at midseason. His overall numbers look good, but he's given up 18 home runs in his last 11 starts, and his strikeout rate is dramatically lower than it was last year.

The timing of that significant regression is awful, because this fall marks a major decision point for the Cubs with regard to Imanaga. The terms of the contract to which the two parties agreed in January 2024 are complicated, but in short:

• Imanaga made $23 million over these first two seasons of his Cubs career
• This fall, the Cubs have to decide whether to exercise a three-year, $57-million option for the next three seasons, paying Imanaga $20 million in each of the next two years and $17 million in 2028.
• Should the Cubs decline that option, Imanaga will have a $15-million player option for 2026.

Another version of the same dance would ensue next fall, if Imanaga exercises that option. The Cubs would have to decide on two years and $42 million, at that point, amounting to the same total payout through 2028, or allow Imanaga to decide on another $15-million player option for 2027.

For the majority of the time between Imanaga's signing and now, the first Cubs option felt like a no-brainer. Triggering it would push the total value of Imanaga's deal to $80 million over five years, but that's a relative bargain for the No. 2-caliber starter he's appeared to be for most of the last two years. Alas, at this moment, it feels more like a no-brainer in the opposite direction. Imanaga is 32 years old. His stuff is diminished, and he suffered a hamstring injury this year of which there's roughly a 25% chance of reinjury in the future—which doesn't reduce the baseline risks of injury to his elbow, shoulder or other more traditionally pitching-specific things. It's hard to justify anything close to $57 million in newly guaranteed money to such a pitcher, coming off the stretch he's been on since mid-August.

If they don't exercise their side of the option, the Cubs could well retain Imanaga, anyway. He's in position to make more than $15 million in guaranteed money this winter, but he probably won't top $15 million for 2026 alone. Given that there's another $15 million (with $42 million over two years as the upside) waiting for him in 2027 if he sticks with this deal, he probably won't receive an offer this winter that beats the combination of earning power and security the current contract gives him. It would take a lot of self-belief on Imanaga's part to plunge back into the market, but if what he wants is certainty about where he'll pitch for the next three or four years, he's only likely to find it there.

Let's say, though, that the Cubs turn down their half of the option and Imanaga turns down his. There would still be one more path to reunion between the two, at that point—if the Cubs are feeling spendy as the offseason gets underway. Should Imanaga eschew the $15-million option, the Cubs could extend a qualifying offer to tether Imanaga to them as he enters free agency. That offer is likely to be somewhere around $22 million, and if the Cubs attach it to him, Imanaga's market would be deflated so much that he'd probably retreat and accept the offer.

For the Cubs, that makes declining the option an even more obvious choice. Instead of committing to three more years of his services and paying him $20 million in 2026 alone, they'd get him for an incrementally increased cost next year but avoid having money tied up beyond that. On balance, it's still very likely that Imanaga is back with Chicago next season—or at least, that he stays with the organization initially. There could always be an unforeseen winter trade, but the smart money says Imanaga will exercise his half of the option this fall. 

From a pitching depth perspective, it would be great to have Imanaga back as part of the rotation mix in 2026. It would also be a bit of a relief, because as engaging and endearing as he has been throughout his stay with the team, this would be a sad way for the relationship to end. Imanaga remains a valuable starter, and the Cubs aren't awash in good options as they enter the offseason. Even if they do retain him, though, they need to be active in the market this winter, to further bolster their staff.

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[Banks-Williams]

Shota should be invited to Arizona in the Spring.  He’s certainly entitled to a second chance.  He’s a good pitcher when he’s got his stuff. I would not, however, invite Counsel back.  He’s the guy who Imanaga to the lions.  Game 2 wasn’t Shota’s fault. Everyone knew he became too hit-able.

[Arlen]

Same spin on the fastball as early in the season?
Where did the forkballs go?

[Arlen]

It would be intriguing to see an older, perhaps sadder, but wiser David Ross back as the Cubs' manager.

Edited October 8, 2025 by Arlen

[Jason Ross]

38 minutes ago, Arlen said:

Same spin on the fastball as early in the season?
Where did the forkballs go?

It's largely an arm slot issue. He's about 5-degrees lower (which sounds small, but in reality is a lot). It's created difficulty for him to elevate pitches like his fastball to the upper third and he leaves it middle. The shape of his fastball (high ride) means bottom or middle-third pitches ride into the bat path of launch angle guys (who are already trying to sky it). It results in home runs. When you get that pitch to the upper third it rides over the bat - weak flys.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

41 minutes ago, Arlen said:

It would be intriguing to see an older, perhaps sadder, but wiser David Ross back as the Cubs' manager.

and wearing reading glasses to show that time has passed

[Connor McConnor]

Per the article;

"He's 32, his stuff is diminished, and his strikeout rate is dramatically lower than it was last year."  "18 home runs in his last 11 starts."  

"Yet he remains a valuable starter."   He is "engaging and endearing" as well.   

Get good baseball players.  If they are engaging and endearing or whatever, fine, but it's about winning baseball games. If he can't get guys out anymore, thats too bad for him and for us, but you have to move on.  

Edited October 8, 2025 by Connor McConnor

[Gjfificifjdej]

I hope so. Regardless of stats or results, I hate watching him pitch. Awful experience 

[Arlen]

Wow. I thought Tommy Hottovy's staff was there to pick up on things like that. Then again, one would think Crag Counsell would pick up on the simple trend of Imanaga's ineffectiveness. The office might think of hiring Northside Baseball.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Arlen said:

Wow. I thought Tommy Hottovy's staff was there to pick up on things like that. Then again, one would think Crag Counsell would pick up on the simple trend of Imanaga's ineffectiveness. The office might think of hiring Northside Baseball.

The Cubs as a team had a lot of pitchers have lowered arm slots this year, so I think it's a trend. It really helped many pitchers, lowering an arm slots gives added run to the glove side usually. It can create depth and shape on sliders sweepers and cutters. For Shota my guess is that the Cubs were looking to maximize his sweeper which he used much more this year. 

Sadly I don't think it helped him more than it hurt him. But it's also not just a lever you pull and go back. It is likely an off-season tweak rather than a mod season tweak. 

[Bertz]

I think letting Shota go would be a knee jerk emotional reaction to the past two weeks.  Thankfully I think even Jed's biggest critics would agree he doesn’t do knee jerk emotional reactions.

I understand if the team wants to try a gambit to not commit to 2028 this far out.  That feels fair.  I suspect Shota would not opt out of his deal.  He'd certainly beat his 2026 salary on the open market, we saw just last year team's desperate enough to give frickin Walker Buehler 21 million, but that player option for '27 likely makes up the difference (and then some?).

[macarthur31]

While I'm hopeful that it's too early to be thinking '26 and beyond roster construction, it's been a fascinating puzzle given Shota's unique contract.  You covered why the Qualifying Offer would likely be the most financial savvy move, however unsure if that's worth the cost of triggering bad vibes with Shota and FO.

However, here's a few reasons why it'd be worth the Cubs to pick up the extension:

• Per sportico, his extension would only be $13.5M vs. the salary tax each season.  He'd be taking up the Jamo Taillon role ($17M against tax, expires in '27) on the squad as unflappable veteran.
• While the Cubs are paying him $5.5M in actual monies, I'd imagine that can be offset by the merch moved domestically and in Japanese markets
• Japanese market - Amazon Prime Video has the MLB Contract in Japan, and shows 54 regular season games a year - mainly focusing on teams like Cubs with Japanese players; fanbase's embrace of Shota positions Chicago as a favorable destination for Japanese FAs (I mean, there's only so much room on the Dodgers roster, right?  *pause* Right?!?)
• Genuine positive locker room presence, and the "Throwing Philosopher" can mentor up and coming pitchers.
• Despite impending labor stoppage, Cubs books are quite clean heading into '27.  Only Swanson ($28M) is locked, while Busch is ARB 1 (and if he continues apace, that should be a decent sized check).  Otherwise, it's just mutual Options for both Boyd ($15M) and Kelly ($7.5M)

Here are reasons why I could see them not extending:

• Despite practically immaculate books, Ricketts wants to clean as much off.
• Jed's irrational confidence in spamming the "Colin Rea $6M/1Y" play 
• Already committed money to TOR FA signings Freddy Peralta and Dylan Cease.
• Reinforced windows and doors that keep pitchfork and torch toting fans from destroying offices.