Mariners (Kirby) vs Cubs (Boyd): 6/20/25, 1:20pm

[PeanutPunch33]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

2024 Fangraphs Top 100 Prospect List: PCA 20, Shaw 32

2025 Fangraphs Top 100 Prospect List: Shaw 13

Through 170 PAs last year (Shaw is at 167 going into today), PCA was slashing 194/241/284. Shaw is at 225/299/325. 

Obviously I'm not saying that we should expect a similar progression. But they were absolutely similarly regarded, Shaw is doing better at this point in his major league career, the learning curve at the MLB level is very steep, and this weird thing where Shaw's development is somehow tied to people thinking Dansby sucks in specific at bats is dumb and should stop. 

I personally always thought that PCA was underrated in those prospect ratings, but whatever.  My point is that there is a real scenario where Shaw is a sub .600 OPS guy going into August, do you really want to give him premier ABs against elite starting pitching in the playoffs because he's a rookie and these are just "growing pains"

This team is ready to win now.  Every AB matters.  

[cl smooth]

cubs are 16 games above .500 and 5.5 games in first place...and we have issues with our rookie 3b hitting for power? 

 

let him go through growing pains while the team is flying high. 

[squally1313]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

Squally also doesn't take into account that the circumstances are different this year.  The Cubs had nothing to lose by letting PCA play every day last year despite some struggles, they weren't competing for anything.  

They have a chance to win the WS this year.  I don't want the Cubs to lose a playoff game because of Matt Shaw being a blackhole on offense.  

What are you talking about, when PCA got called up on 4/24/24 the Cubs were 15-9 and you could argue his bad play contributed to them falling off from there (and then his good play in the second half helped bring them back in it). They were 71-66 and three games out of a playoff spot on September 1st. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

Matthew Boyd is actually right-handed?

[mul21]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I personally always thought that PCA was underrated in those prospect ratings, but whatever.  My point is that there is a real scenario where Shaw is a sub .600 OPS guy going into August, do you really want to give him premier ABs against elite starting pitching in the playoffs because he's a rookie and these are just "growing pains"

This team is ready to win now.  Every AB matters.  

Okay, now go look at PCA's numbers before and after July 1st last year.

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, squally1313 said:

What are you talking about, when PCA got called up on 4/24/24 the Cubs were 15-9 and you could argue his bad play contributed to them falling off from there (and then his good play in the second half helped bring them back in it). They were 71-66 and three games out of a playoff spot on September 1st. 

15-9 early in the season doesn't make them a "contending team" and when PCA was first called up, he wasn't playing every day.  If I recall he was playing only vs lefties and in controlled situations.  They didn't just throw him out there everyday like they are throwing Shaw out there and expecting him to figure it out, at least not until halfway through the season 

 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

15-9 early in the season doesn't make them a "contending team" and when PCA was first called up, he wasn't playing every day.  If I recall he was playing only vs lefties and in controlled situations.  They didn't just throw him out there everyday like they are throwing Shaw out there and expecting him to figure it out, at least not until halfway through the season 

 

"He wasn't playing every day"

[UMFan83]

Looking at Shaw this year vs PCA last year

The exit velocity for Shaw is horrifically bad, but his expected numbers look better than PCA's last year.  Also surprising is despite looking like an excellent defender, savant doesn't seem to see him as one.

 

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Okay, now go look at PCA's numbers before and after July 1st last year.

You can't 'bank' on that happening though.  Prospects fail 50% of the time.  There is every bit a chance that Shaw keeps playing like crap than suddenly turning on a switch and improving.  

I'm not even out on him long term, I just don't think the Cubs should roll with Matt Shaw and Berti as their only options at that position.  If a guy like Bregman becomes available you do it and pivot off of Shaw.  It's WS or bust.  

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I like the long double, but pull that and hit the scoreboard next time please.

[chibears55]

8 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

I think you're correct, Jed may be looking at bringing someone who give them offense at 3B in addition to SP.

I expect we could see a guy who can play 3B and hit LH to give Shaw some games off against RHers.

 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

You can't 'bank' on that happening though.  Prospects fail 50% of the time.  There is every bit a chance that Shaw keeps playing like crap than suddenly turning on a switch and improving.  

I'm not even out on him long term, I just don't think the Cubs should roll with Matt Shaw and Berti as their only options at that position.  If a guy like Bregman becomes available you do it and pivot off of Shaw.  It's WS or bust.  

I think it's over a month until the trade deadline and if he doesn't show some improvement by then, I'll probably agree with you, but jumping the gun on a rookie when we saw this exact situation play out with a prospect of similar caliber last season seems a bit premature, no?

[UMFan83]

Wow absolutely terrible strike 1 call on Seiya

[squally1313]

PCA got 117 PAs in AAA last year and also got 410 PAs in the majors. 527 total, 149 games. The idea that he was used sparingly anywhere is just wrong. 

[PeanutPunch33]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

"He wasn't playing every day"

Fair enough, but I disagree completely on the idea that if there isn't a logical, short term upgrade that materializes, they shouldn't consider it.  

[chibears55]

Is it me or do they fail often in moving runner from 2B with no outs.

[Derwood]

Dansby can fuuck right off

[UMFan83]

Waste of a leadoff double by the heart of the order.  Not sure why Dansby is swinging at that particular first pitch.  PCA also swung at some bad ones but he's earned the benefit of the doubt with the pitches he's hit this year.

[squally1313]

Just now, PeanutPunch33 said:

Fair enough, but I disagree completely on the idea that if there isn't a logical, short term upgrade that materializes, they shouldn't consider it.  

They're 5.5 games up in a very weak division. This is EXACTLY the time to let a guy like Shaw work his way through the learning curve. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

If a guy like Bregman becomes available you do it and pivot off of Shaw.  It's WS or bust.  

It is not WS or bust. It (basically) never is.

That said, if Shaw is scuffling this badly in a month I think you do look into ways to hedge him at the deadline.  That decidedly does not look like trading for Bregman, which is a financial/talent commitment they should not be making in the offense at any position.  But ideally something like a platoon hedge(to stick with the Red Sox theme, maybe Abraham Toro), or a Turner upgrade that plays a more viable 3B.

[PeanutPunch33]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

I think it's over a month until the trade deadline and if he doesn't show some improvement by then, I'll probably agree with you, but jumping the gun on a rookie when we saw this exact situation play out with a prospect of similar caliber last season seems a bit premature, no?

I mean I agree with that completely, he still has 'first dibs' on 3B and he should be given every opportunity before they make a trade.  But if there isn't some major improvement at the plate in the next month, it should be considered.  

And sliding Shaw to a pinch hitting/bench role for half a season would strengthen the bench too.  Eliminating that as something they need to acquire. 

[Outshined_One]

It's also worth pointing out that 3B sucks league-wide this season.  Barely half the teams in MLB have a regular 3B who is producing positive WAR, and the trade candidates at the position are basically a left handed version of Matt Shaw in Ryan McMahon and a defensive black hole in Eugenio Suarez.

It's less than ideal, but I'd rather let Shaw try to figure things out at the plate and focus on improving the rotation and bullpen.

[PeanutPunch33]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

It is not WS or bust. It (basically) never is.

That said, if Shaw is scuffling this badly in a month I think you do look into ways to hedge him at the deadline.  That decidedly does not look like trading for Bregman, which is a financial/talent commitment they should not be making in the offense at any position.  But ideally something like a platoon hedge(to stick with the Red Sox theme, maybe Abraham Toro), or a Turner upgrade that plays a more viable 3B.

You don't think that Bregman will opt out after this year?  He's having a career year, he'd have the highest OPS on this team.  The Cubs would go from WS contenders to WS favorites if he was in this lineup.  

Even if he opts in, that's only another 1 or 2 year commitment for one of the best 3B in baseball (I believe he has another player opt out after 26)

Edited June 20, 2025 by PeanutPunch33

[We Got The Whole 9]

Suarez has put up good defense most of his career and this year he appears to be fine. To me he seems like the most obvious addition. I hope we get him. 

[PeanutPunch33]

horsefeathers