Mooney: Cubs sign Justin Turner

[Jason Ross]

Details to come.

[Rcal10]

Nice bench move. Now just get Peller to blink and it turns into a very good (“A” grade)off season. 

Edited February 18, 2025 by Rcal10

[Bertz]

Sweet.  Now add Robertson, someone make a crude Wild Hogs or 80 For Brady photoshop with Turner/DRob/Pressly/Thielbar, and let's get this show on the road.

[jersey cubs fan]

Did not realize his age. Turner is a man, he’s 40. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Sweet.  Now add Robertson, someone make a crude Wild Hogs or 80 For Brady photoshop with Turner/DRob/Pressly/Thielbar, and let's get this show on the road.

I aimed higher😬 (Cease) But I agree, adding Robertson would round out a good off season. 

[Wilson A2000]

He can play 1B too, right?

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Wilson A2000 said:

He can play 1B too, right?

He's primarily a 1B at this point.

You can probably count on your fingers the number of times he'll play 2B or 3B this year.  You will definitely be able to count it with your fingers and toes combined.

[BigbadB]

7 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

He can play 1B too, right?

Think that's about all he'll play besides DH. Berti has the other infield positions covered. I'd even bet on BJ Murray or someone in the minors logging more time at 3rd than Turner if Shaw had to miss significant time.

[Bertz]

With this locked in, curious who the last bench spot goes to.  Berti's versatility means you don't have to base the decision on covering a specific spot.

- Brujan sucks, and his versatility is kind if moot with Berti, but does the fact the team traded for him mean they think they can coach more out of his bat?

- Canario has power none of the other options have, and he's kind of a CF which is the spot you feel least comfortable with Berti covering

- Workman is probably the most talented guy here.  And as a lefty IFer that's nice.  But with him skipping AAA as a Rule 5 pick how much can he really contribute early?

- Nicky Lopez sucks, but that contact/defense profile isn't the worst for a 26th man

I lean Workman probably?  Though regardless of how it goes I'd be a bit surprised if the guy is still on the roster come Memorial Day.  He's keeping a spot warm for whichever of Alcantara/Caissie goes off at Iowa first.

[jersey cubs fan]

29 minutes ago, Wilson A2000 said:

He can play 1B too, right?

When you say “too” do you mean in addition to DH?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

At least for opening day I would probably bet Workman as the 26th man as of now.  Canario has an uphill climb given Turner and Berti are competition for playing time he would get, and the bench is already all-RHH.  Brujan feels like an easy outright after ST to keep him in Iowa, and Lopez feels like a guy who gets 5 PA if Hoerner has to be ILed to start the year, or maybe gets it if he plays well and Workman flops.  Workman has the defense that Brujan/Lopez offer, hits LHH unlike Canario, and has pop that Brujan/Lopez don't.  I'm also not sure what other NRIs are in camp that might pull a Tauchman, that feels like a real possibility especially if Workman doesn't look good in ST.

[Wilson A2000]

53 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

When you say “too” do you mean in addition to DH?

I was thinking in terms of 3B in case Shaw struggles, but yes DH too

[Tryptamine]

Go and grab Robertson it's a good offseason, go and grab Cease and it's a very good offseason.

[ryanrc]

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesn't play much of a factor in a pennant race. But at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of over 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen starts (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes. We want our starting three out there with gold glove performances, because the chances that Turner significantly outhits even PCA is actually fairly low. 

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games and will usually outhit Turner by a nice margin.

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games when other players are slumping. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.  
 

[Tryptamine]

The guy put up a 117 wRC+ last year, that's a huge upgrade over any other current bench bat and a more than adequate back up in case of a Busch/Seiya injury. He could also be used as a platoon partner for Busch. Short of being a better 3B, he's exactly what the team needed. 

[Jason Ross]

15 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesn't play much of a factor in a pennant race. But at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of over 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen starts (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes. We want our starting three out there with gold glove performances, because the chances that Turner significantly outhits even PCA is actually fairly low. 

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games and will usually outhit Turner by a nice margin.

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games when other players are slumping. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.  
 

Part of the problem here is in roster fit. Randall Grichuk doesn't really fulfill a need. He does hit lefties well, but looking at his profile he does nothing that Seiya Suzuki will (probably) be asked to do. For example, Grichuk has been a pretty bad center fielder as of late - and as he hits his mid-30's, this feels like it checks out more and more. He's a -16 DRS over his last 1600 innings in CF. So he's mostly confined to RF and LF - which Suzuki could play. As well, he's been pretty bad against RHP most years. Yes, he did have a 115 wRC+ last year, but this feels like an outlier. His SLG was way up against RHP .  years prior he had wRC+ of 88 (2023), 62 (2022), and an 82 (2021). 

Justin Turner does something the Cubs dont have - they don't have anyone who hits right handed and plays 1b. You could say Tucker could swing into 1b (he's had nominal playing time there since 2019) and he's good against LHP, but for pitchers who have splits, it's sometimes good to have the RHH 1b option as well. Turner's old, and we shouldn't count on him to be amazing, but he's off a season with a 117 wRC+ and while you can argue Grichuk is better against LHP very effectively, Turner is likely going to have more opportunity and is a better roster fit because he's still more than capable against RHP. Grichuk will probably be a pumpkin there. Turner also has little competition as a RHH 1b - there isn't even a prospect that fulfills that role. Kevin Alcantara or Alexander Canario (though I have reservations on both for different reasons) could realistically be a RHH OF'er sometime during 2025 - the Cubs don't have that at 1b outside of maybe popup prospect Johnny Long. Owen Caissie hits LHH and would probably need some RHH protection at the very least.

In that regards, we should look at fWAR in less of a pedantic way. Since fWAR is a cumulative statistic, one in which usage matters, the Cubs probably have more use for Turner. Turner can play DH and 1b, and will play more, giving him more of ability to accrue fWAR with the Cubs. It may be that Grichuk ends up posting better WAR numbers, but how the Arizona Diamondbacks can find time for him will differ from the Cubs and with bench players, their usage and utility matters. The Cubs likely believe they will get more milage out of Turner, and while there's risk employing a 40 year old bat-first player, I'm not that disinclined to see their reasoning for a 1b/DH over the corner OF'er.

[ryanrc]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

With this locked in, curious who the last bench spot goes to.  Berti's versatility means you don't have to base the decision on covering a specific spot.

- Brujan sucks, and his versatility is kind if moot with Berti, but does the fact the team traded for him mean they think they can coach more out of his bat?

- Canario has power none of the other options have, and he's kind of a CF which is the spot you feel least comfortable with Berti covering

- Workman is probably the most talented guy here.  And as a lefty IFer that's nice.  But with him skipping AAA as a Rule 5 pick how much can he really contribute early?

- Nicky Lopez sucks, but that contact/defense profile isn't the worst for a 26th man

I lean Workman probably?  Though regardless of how it goes I'd be a bit surprised if the guy is still on the roster come Memorial Day.  He's keeping a spot warm for whichever of Alcantara/Caissie goes off at Iowa first.

The last spot will be volatile. It is best used for option players. 
Ideally, you start the season with Canario as the 5th outfielder due to his upside bat potential and lack of options. Unlike Turner, he can play all 3 OF spots in a pinch, although he's really a left fielder in the long run. And, being so  cheap, you dont mind if he rides the bench all season and only gives you like 50-75 at bats. It doesnt matter.  However, if Canario looks bad in the field or at the plate in preseason, he's DFA material and we have lots of plan B's. 

Supposing Canario doesn't look good, we have enough depth to go for a weak lefty utility bat, which for some reason is an obsession of Hoyer's.  Hoyer will endeavor to keep the best out of Brujan, Lopez, and Workman - the best among league minimum guys whose best platoon split is .680 - .700. Again, this player is only worth 50-75 at bats, unless injury disasters strike. So it really doesnt matter which one. 

But remember, only Lopez is signed to a safe contract, of the three, because he has upside of being a phenomenal SS who can produce over 2 WAR without even hitting. He's a top 5 utility glove in the entire MLB. Brujan is only there in case of injuries, and Workman was signed before any of the others, so returning him the Tigers costs $50k. Big deal, nobody cares. Workman would need to put on quite a show in spring training to land a roster spot. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesn't play much of a factor in a pennant race. But at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of over 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen starts (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes. We want our starting three out there with gold glove performances, because the chances that Turner significantly outhits even PCA is actually fairly low. 

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games and will usually outhit Turner by a nice margin.

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games when other players are slumping. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.  
 

I think there's several things that aren't looking through the right lens here.

1) Turner is going to get more than 150-200 plate appearances if he plays to expectations.  Especially with the way workloads are managed in the current game, there are a lot more spot starts and pinch hit opportunities.  Very possible he doubles that estimate, which pairs well with the next thought.

2) Looking at bench players with this type of $/WAR lens is missing the point of the purpose bench players serve.  Saying that he's paid as a pro-rated 18 million dollar player is non-sensical.  Plus Turner's big benefit is raising the floor.  He's not going to add 3 wins by himself, but by having a decent major league hitter you hedge against injury and underperformance elsewhere with less risk than if Canario was the primary 1B backup.

3) We have better ways of looking at offensive performance than raw OPS, especially in the situation for someone like Turner who spent a chunk of last season in the worst offensive home park in baseball.  Turner pretty consistently has been a 120ish wRC+ against LHP, and the fact that he's quite playable against RHP(very little platoon split traditionally) also helps considering the lack of LHH bench bats on the current roster.

4) Grichuk would've been a perfectly fine bench add, as he does hit lefties very well.  But he's also a zero against RHP(making him easier to gameplan against as a pinch hitter than someone like Turner), and more importantly he has a clearer path to extended playing time in Arizona than he does in Chicago with 4 OF that are better than him.

 

[jersey cubs fan]

15 minutes ago, ryanrc said:

Meh. It's not a bad move, and I'm fine with him having the 26th roster spot, which usually doesn't play much of a factor in a pennant race. But at 6 million, I'm doubtful he produces enough WAR to earn his keep. I think he's worth 3 or 4 million - a bit less than Berti's true value of over 5 million, but being paid twice as much as Berti on the hopes his name recognition makes fans happy. I expect him to hit about .730 OPS this year against mostly lefties and only play 1B/DH. 

1) He can start at DH occasionally against opposing lefty starters, with Suzuki subbing for PCA/Happ/Turner in the field, but that's hopefully only a dozen starts (under 50 at bats) - maybe twice that if we run into injury woes. We want our starting three out there with gold glove performances, because the chances that Turner significantly outhits even PCA is actually fairly low. 

2) His splits against left-handed pitching still can play ok, so he can occasionally start for Busch at first, too, but again, that's another dozen games, tops (under 50 at bats). Busch is expected to start 150 games and will usually outhit Turner by a nice margin.

3) He can OCCASIONALLY pinch hit in games when other players are slumping. Last year he was .758 against lefties in a small sample size but only .730 against righties. Good enough for power situations in place of Hoerner/Berti, or Amaya/Kelly, if he's on a hot streak and they aren't, and you don't even use his glove. However, you don't even want Swanson off the plate for Turner. let's call that another 50 pinch reps, playing a similar role as Patrick Wisdom over the last two years.  

All in all, this is an estimated 150-200 plate appearances for 6 million - that's an 18 million dollar pro-rated season for a meh DEH! His bat is only "a slight improvement" over the players for whom he's pinching. As I've said before, most teams pay a guy with his bat, sans glove, 6 million for a full season of appearances. On the upside, he's the kind of experienced bench bat you want in the post-season because he's seen it all and performed well under pressure. 

I wanted Grichuk as our lefty killer bat because the guy can hit almost .900 OPS as a platoon, as opposed to Turner's projected .700-.750 range. And yet we paid Turner 1 million more than Grichuk got paid by the Dbacks this year- I'm scratching my head about that. The WAR doesn't add up.  
 

Are you really differentiating the worth between 4 and 6 million? The amount of WAR between those values is nominal and would be in the range of expected production for him this season already. 

[ryanrc]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think there's several things that aren't looking through the right lens here.

1) Turner is going to get more than 150-200 plate appearances if he plays to expectations.  Especially with the way workloads are managed in the current game, there are a lot more spot starts and pinch hit opportunities.  Very possible he doubles that estimate, which pairs well with the next thought.

2) Looking at bench players with this type of $/WAR lens is missing the point of the purpose bench players serve.  Saying that he's paid as a pro-rated 18 million dollar player is non-sensical.  Plus Turner's big benefit is raising the floor.  He's not going to add 3 wins by himself, but by having a decent major league hitter you hedge against injury and underperformance elsewhere with less risk than if Canario was the primary 1B backup.

3) We have better ways of looking at offensive performance than raw OPS, especially in the situation for someone like Turner who spent a chunk of last season in the worst offensive home park in baseball.  Turner pretty consistently has been a 120ish wRC+ against LHP, and the fact that he's quite playable against RHP(very little platoon split traditionally) also helps considering the lack of LHH bench bats on the current roster.

4) Grichuk would've been a perfectly fine bench add, as he does hit lefties very well.  But he's also a zero against RHP(making him easier to gameplan against as a pinch hitter than someone like Turner), and more importantly he has a clearer path to extended playing time in Arizona than he does in Chicago with 4 OF that are better than him.

 

The only scenario where he gets more at bats than that is a long term injury to suzuki or busch. Otherwise, based on the Cubs' use of bench players over the last 5 season, I disagree that Turner should get that many hits. 

1) Suzuki is our DH, and his splits are over .850, both ways. There's no platoon there- Suzuki only doesn't DH when he's giving our 3 TREMENDOUS gold glove starters a day of rest.  So, that covers DH, as I said. a .700-.750 hitter does not replace a .850+ hitter. 

2) I think there's this general feeling among doubters that Busch and Turner are platoon bats, and I think that's the wrong way to look at it. I don't understand why everyone is so down on Busch's ability to hit- a guy who hit nearly .800 in his rookie season, or why they think he will regress rather than improve when he's been a phenomenal bat his entire pro career. His split under .700 against lefties was a bit of an anomaly based on Wrigley Field last year and is highly unlikely to happen again. Furthermore, and in stress this, Busch's glove was among the best in the league his first year as a starter. Why pull his stellar glove for a below average one on the hopes you get 1 more hit per 40 plate appearances, which is roughly how much better Turner projects than Busch against left handed pitching this year? Nah, you'd actually be risking a negative WAR outcome. 

3) My point is simple: Let's HOPE we don't need Turner to hit more than 200 times, because it means other guys are sucking this year or out for really long injuries. Hoerner's career OPS projects about the same or better as Turner in 2025, and if he's sucking, then we are already concerned. Same thing with Amaya, who is supposed to hit .750 against lefties. put simply, the more we are using Turner, the worse our starters are doing compared to their career projections. On the other hand, we would be glad to have our asses covered, as I said, if we do use Turner, and that makes him worth a bench bat. 

4) Let's not forget the last several over the hill first basemen we overpaid and did jack squat- its a pattern with the Cubs. Being optimistic that Turner has a great year at 40-41 is a bit questionable, because of all the people who liked Mancini and Hosmer. Its a recent pattern for the Cubs to be overly optimistic about ancient 1B guys , and not a pattern I like. I hope I'm wrong, but the odds are pretty bad that Turner raises our win chances- he's there to prevent disasters, not raise our win total. 

[ryanrc]

19 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Are you really differentiating the worth between 4 and 6 million? The amount of WAR between those values is nominal and would be in the range of expected production for him this season already. 

I count every million, just like every pro coach and administrator does, because we have a hard cap on spending, we are trying to sign impactful contracts, and every million given to one player takes it from another position.

that's just "How it works" my friends. Only teams that routinely go far over the threshold can say, "eff it, give Tommy Edman twice what his WAR projections are! who cares? " 

It all counts! 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, ryanrc said:

The only scenario where he gets more at bats than that is a long term injury to suzuki or busch. Otherwise, based on the Cubs' use of bench players over the last 5 season, I disagree that Turner should get that many hits. 

1) Suzuki is our DH, and his splits are over .850, both ways. There's no platoon there- Suzuki only doesn't DH when he's giving our 3 TREMENDOUS gold glove starters a day of rest.  So, that covers DH, as I said. a .700-.750 hitter does not replace a .850+ hitter. 

2) I think there's this general feeling among doubters that Busch and Turner are platoon bats, and I think that's the wrong way to look at it. I don't understand why everyone is so down on Busch's ability to hit- a guy who hit nearly .800 in his rookie season, or why they think he will regress rather than improve when he's been a phenomenal bat his entire pro career. His split under .700 against lefties was a bit of an anomaly based on Wrigley Field last year and is highly unlikely to happen again. Furthermore, and in stress this, Busch's glove was among the best in the league his first year as a starter. Why pull his stellar glove for a below average one on the hopes you get 1 more hit per 40 plate appearances, which is roughly how much better Turner projects than Busch against left handed pitching this year? Nah, you'd actually be risking a negative WAR outcome. 

3) My point is simple: Let's HOPE we don't need Turner to hit more than 200 times, because it means other guys are sucking this year or out for really long injuries. Hoerner's career OPS projects about the same or better as Turner in 2025, and if he's sucking, then we are already concerned. Same thing with Amaya, who is supposed to hit .750 against lefties. put simply, the more we are using Turner, the worse our starters are doing compared to their career projections. On the other hand, we would be glad to have our asses covered, as I said, if we do use Turner, and that makes him worth a bench bat. 

4) Let's not forget the last several over the hill first basemen we overpaid and did jack squat- its a pattern with the Cubs. Being optimistic that Turner has a great year at 40-41 is a bit questionable, because of all the people who liked Mancini and Hosmer. Its a recent pattern for the Cubs to be overly optimistic about ancient 1B guys , and not a pattern I like. I hope I'm wrong, but the odds are pretty bad that Turner raises our win chances- he's there to prevent disasters, not raise our win total. 

On the current roster, Turner is the first person you insert into the lineup if someone isn't playing at no less than 4 spots, corner OF(DH w/ Suzuki to OF), DH, and 1B.  That group is probably going to have at least 60 games where they aren't in the lineup due to rest or little bumps and bruises.  It's also extremely likely that one of those 4 has at least a brief IL stint.  So we're talking about  ~75 games where Turner is your first choice to start before we consider that he'll likely get some more platoon-based time at 1B, which is fine even if we don't think Busch needs protecting from all LHP.  Throw in being the primary PH on any day he isn't in the lineup, and as long as he's not playing below expectations there's a very clear path to 300+ PA if he continues to hit.

Turner does have risk, that's why he is taking a bench role and why he was available at the start of spring training.  Saying that 'being optimistic about Turner is questionable because people liked Mancini and Hosmer' doesn't make any sense.  If anything he has more in common at the plate with someone like Tauchman who continued to exceed expectations at the plate despite being older than Mancini/Hosmer were during their Cubs tenure.

[ryanrc]

 "Looking at bench players with this type of $/WAR lens is missing the point of the purpose bench players serve.  Saying that he's paid as a pro-rated 18 million dollar player is non-sensical.  Plus Turner's big benefit is raising the floor.  He's not going to add 3 wins by himself, but by having a decent major league hitter you hedge against injury and underperformance elsewhere with less risk than if Canario was the primary 1B backup."

Nope. not nonsensical at all. Would you like me to write a full length article about how WAR works in regards to bench players as "pro-rated starters?" because that's how it works, my friend. There's nothing special or magical about a 6 million dollar bench insurance policy. Its still worth what its worth in terms of at bats and reps on the field. If Turner isnt saving defensive runs, or if he isnt outhitting a replacement player, he's not worth that money. 

Math is math, and it often annoys sports fans - but that's just how it is. 
Berti has a bigger chance than Turner to add wins to the Cubs this year, and that may feel wrong but it isnt.

this is why many lower ranking teams can be competitive- they keep grabbing up players like Paul DeJong or Randal Grichuk and getting more WAR for their buck, and lo and behold being pretty good teams. while top market teams overspend for guys with fan appeal and then ..... poof, they lose games to teams like the DBacks or Brewers or Rays. Huh. Gee. 

Maybe its because those teams I mentioned fight for every million in a contract and respect their WAR values even against the wishes of their fans, whereas other fans say things like: "its nonsensical that bench players be treated as pro-rated starters". when that's exactly what they are, in WAR terms.   

So, not sure why you're so intensely arguing for no point here, but you've basically agreed with me on most points and then nitpicked the exact wrong think to nitpick and called me nonsensical at the same time. 

[ryanrc]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

On the current roster, Turner is the first person you insert into the lineup if someone isn't playing at no less than 4 spots, corner OF(DH w/ Suzuki to OF), DH, and 1B.  That group is probably going to have at least 60 games where they aren't in the lineup due to rest or little bumps and bruises.  It's also extremely likely that one of those 4 has at least a brief IL stint.  So we're talking about  ~75 games where Turner is your first choice to start before we consider that he'll likely get some more platoon-based time at 1B, which is fine even if we don't think Busch needs protecting from all LHP.  Throw in being the primary PH on any day he isn't in the lineup, and as long as he's not playing below expectations there's a very clear path to 300+ PA if he continues to hit.

Turner does have risk, that's why he is taking a bench role and why he was available at the start of spring training.  Saying that 'being optimistic about Turner is questionable because people liked Mancini and Hosmer' doesn't make any sense.  If anything he has more in common at the plate with someone like Tauchman who continued to exceed expectations at the plate despite being older than Mancini/Hosmer were during their Cubs tenure.

60 games? no, because you're bypassing the actual young outfielders who can hit as well or better than Turner.....

[ryanrc]

Saying that 'being optimistic about Turner is questionable because people liked Mancini and Hosmer' doesn't make any sense.  If anything he has more in common at the plate with someone like Tauchman who continued to exceed expectations at the plate despite being older than Mancini/Hosmer were during their Cubs tenure.


Now you're really not making sense here. Tauchman was a lefty outfielder, not even 1b /

I bow out of this because I dont even know what we're talking about anymore.