2025 ZiPS projection

[Bertz]

Just now, BigSlick said:

I haven't paid super close attention to anything with this team for a while, but 4.0 WAR for Crow-Armstrong sounds really...optimistic doesn't it? 

It's certainly aggressive, but he's super young and put up 2.7 in about 75% of a full season last year.

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, BigSlick said:

I haven't paid super close attention to anything with this team for a while, but 4.0 WAR for Crow-Armstrong sounds really...optimistic doesn't it? 

EDIT: Well looking at his stats from last year, he had 2.3 with less than a season starting and half the year not being able to swing the bat, so maybe not

I shouted this pretty much all year but his floor is that high. Just hope his reckless abandon doesn't send him on lengthy IL stints. 

 

 

[Bull]

2 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I shouted this pretty much all year but his floor is that high. Just hope his reckless abandon doesn't send him on lengthy IL stints. 

 

 

He's worth two wins on defense alone over a full season. And he's actually a net positive on the bases despite the nincompoopiness.

[Post Count Padder]

Looking at these today, it loves our pitching staff. a 3.88 ERA from Poteet? Nearly 3 WAR from Boyd over a full season? It loves Ben Brown and has good numbers from the top guys in the pen as it sits.

Also has Nico, Dansby, Tucker, Happ, PCA and Suzuki all above a 3 WAR. Busch at 2.6 and Shaw at 2.3! Even has Rule 5 pick Gage Workman worth 1.7 WAR.

[Stratos]

A lot of those projections seem closer to best case scenarios than average outcomes.  But they are position totals and not individual player WAR.

I'll say they lose 1.5 wins at 2b, gain a win in CF, and hopefully gain 2 wins each in RF, C, and 3b.  I'll subtract 2 runs from the position player total due to unexpected injuries etc.  So they're up 6.5 wins.

SP I'll call it even with Taillon/Imanaga regression vs what Boyd & co add over Hendricks.  Add a win if they sign another SP.

Pen I'll add 1.5 wins assuming they sign some good arms that work out well.

Total improvement over 2024 = 9 wins.  92 win team.  Might be a little high assuming 2 win gains at 3b & C so I'll predict a 90 win team with some potential to gain a couple wins.  Counsell goal accomplished.

Edited December 20, 2024 by Stratos

[I owned a Suzuki]

10 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

Looking at these today, it loves our pitching staff. a 3.88 ERA from Poteet? Nearly 3 WAR from Boyd over a full season? It loves Ben Brown and has good numbers from the top guys in the pen as it sits.

Also has Nico, Dansby, Tucker, Happ, PCA and Suzuki all above a 3 WAR. Busch at 2.6 and Shaw at 2.3! Even has Rule 5 pick Gage Workman worth 1.7 WAR.

If Workman gets 1.7 WAR, I am going to have to reconsider by opinion of Jed Hoyer. Not drastically, but reconsider

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, I owned a Suzuki said:

If Workman gets 1.7 WAR, I am going to have to reconsider by opinion of Jed Hoyer. Not drastically, but reconsider

One hedge I wouldn't mind taking is throwing 2-3M at Madrigal when his market proves elusive. One of the worst players to have ever watched as a Cubs fan esthetically still put up 1.7 with his surprising versatility.

[Bertz]

This is notably worse than the Cubs even with a very generous innings projection for Brandon Woodruff.

[Stratos]

Adames is a big loss for them.  But never bet against the Brewers lol

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I could've goofed the napkin math but that's like 10 wins worse?  That's a chasm for a regressed projection system

[Stratos]

On 12/19/2024 at 4:07 PM, Bull said:

He's worth two wins on defense alone over a full season. And he's actually a net positive on the bases despite the nincompoopiness.

The defense, stolen bases, and speedy base running definitely give him a pretty high floor. 

Steamer has him at 2.6 WAR next year which makes no sense.  If I were to guess I'd say 3.5.