Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Bertz]

Fangraphs folded in ZiPS projections to all of their depth charts and projected standings.  When they were just using Steamer, the Cubs were 2 games up on the Brewers and Cards.  Now they're up 4 on the Brewers and almost 6 on the Cards.

[JD94]

If the Cubs and Padres can’t come to a reasonable Cease deal, why not just shoot for Flaherty since he’s willing to accept a short “prove it” type deal. He’s obviously not as good, but would still be a nice option to add to the rotation. Probably eliminates us from Bregman, but I doubt that’s going to happen regardless. You could probably grab Flaherty and say Robertson and be good. Maybe they still need another bench bat? 

[ToolDRT]

I’m honestly surprised that the Bregman stuff has gained the traction it has. I know the consensus is that he’s not thrilled with the terms of the 6 year deal. I just can’t imagine reentering the market after turning 31 is going to yield better results. 

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, JD94 said:

If the Cubs and Padres can’t come to a reasonable Cease deal, why not just shoot for Flaherty since he’s willing to accept a short “prove it” type deal. He’s obviously not as good, but would still be a nice option to add to the rotation. Probably eliminates us from Bregman, but I doubt that’s going to happen regardless. You could probably grab Flaherty and say Robertson and be good. Maybe they still need another bench bat? 

I don’t think they have enough to get Robertson if they signed Flaherty. Might have to aim lower for the pen arm. Maybe Chandon or Brasier. But wouldn’t mind Flaherty on a short deal.

Edited February 3, 2025 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Id love to see them upgrade to but yea, I think Kelly, Berti, Workman, and they'll likely start with Canario as the 4th OFer.

Bench is always interchangeable all season and hardly the same from beginning to end of season, I just think theyll use their organization depth for now to start the season with, but i hope I'm wrong on that and grab someone that has some power and can be like a Zobrist type that can fit into the lineup anytime and contribute.

A oart of me just think if they do spend anymore money of significant this offseason, it'll be on pitching as in another SP or bullpen upgrades.

 

And if they spent substantial money on the pen and rotation I would be fine with a weaker bench. You are probably right, they won’t add to the bench. It just sucks that I also doubt they add $25M worth of arms. Ricketts is just going to pocket the money he saved trading Bellinger. 

[KCCub]

 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

 

I guess I manifested that lol 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, JD94 said:

I guess I manifested that lol 

That would have been a good deal for the Cubs. 

[Dfan25]

Optimistic  cubs fans on Twitter are saying , this means Tigers know they are out on Bregman 

Edited February 3, 2025 by Dfan25

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

Optimistic  cubs fans on Twitter are saying , this means Tigers know they are out on Bregman 

It’s always felt like Houston for Bregman. I bet Detroit had a serious offer, but just hasn’t felt like he wanted to go there. The other teams mentioned feel like leverage plots to make Houston up their offer. We will see. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Much rather have Flaherty at that price instead of Boyd. Hes barely making more

[MarkBellhorn]

Makes the Boyd deal look like an overpay,

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

That would have been a good deal for the Cubs. 

The heck we aren't in on that??  He had 3 WAR last year.

Boyd was 2/29 and he's 34 y/o.  Boyd could be solid but we could use Flaherty, pitched like an ace last year and early in his career and just turned 29.

[Stratos]

I wonder if Jed's holding out for Bregman if he's passing that up?  I can't see Jed passing up that Flaherty contract, it just doesn't make sense.  Maybe Flaherty liked Detroit because he pitched really well there?

Edit:  isn't Comerica still a pitchers park?

Edited February 3, 2025 by Stratos

[We Got The Whole 9]

Jumping the market for Boyd just never made any sense to me and now I'm irritated.

Edited February 3, 2025 by We Got The Whole 9

[Stratos]

More details on Flaherty's deal, not as cozy as it originally seemed:

Quote

The frontloaded deal pays Flaherty $25MM in 2025, and he can opt out of the second year of the contract this fall to re-enter free agency.  Flaherty will earn at least $10MM in 2026, though he can unlock up to an additional $10MM in incentive bonuses if he makes 15 starts this season. 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2025/02/tigers-sign-jack-flaherty.html

So its kinda like a Imanaga-lite deal that's hedged for both sides, rewards Flaherty if he's good/healthy with the opt-out but if he gets hurt he comes in cheaper at 10m for 2026.  Tigers get the benefit of a short-term deal plus a lot of hedge for 2026 if he misses significant time this year.

It's actually a pretty fair deal.  If he's healthy but just straight-up sucks in 2025 (unlikely) he gets 2/45 guaranteed.  Gets to go back to Detroit where he was excellent last year.

[Jason Ross]

Good on the Tigers for being able to wait that market out. Realistically there is *no way* the Cubs could wait the SP market out until today without signing another SP, so comparing this to Boyd feels...disingenuous. if not Boyd it'd have been another of those mid market guys like Sean Manea, to which Boyd compares pretty well to. More likely, because the Cubs got Boyd so cheaply we are still capable of signing a Flaherty/Bregman than it is holding us back from one.

[Rcal10]

I also have to think something is not exactly right with Flaherty. 29 teams did not offer him better than this deal. iMO that has to mean his medicals are scary. Remember the Orioles backed out of a deal last year. How do so many pitchers get much higher than their projected salary and he get so little? Something scared away.

[mul21]

17 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I also have to think something is not exactly right with Flaherty. 29 teams did not offer him better than this deal. iMO that has to mean his medicals are scary. Remember the Orioles backed out of a deal last year. How do so many pitchers get much higher than their projected salary and he get so little? Something scared away.

This is what I was thinking as well, especially when you factor in the incentive for starts being at 15 to unlock the additional $10 million for 2026.  There has to be something in the medicals making teams hesitant.

[Bertz]

If you think Jack Flaherty barely getting more money than Matt Boyd says more about Boyd than it does about Flaherty, you've probably lost the plot.

[Bertz]

I just listened to Sharma and Mooney's podcast from over the weekend.  Not a ton there, but:

- They sound pretty down on the likelihood of a Padres deal happening.  They think Preller and Hoyer are just both guys who talk through everything, and it doesn't mean anything is likely or close.  Never rule out Preller making a deal of course

- Similarly they doubt Bregman happens.  It just seems like he'll get $150M+ so why would he be put in a position to need a Bellinger deal from the Cubs

- They also shut down Kenley Jansen.  He's actually a guy the Cubs would probably be quite into, but he's very insistent on being *the* closer.  He's 53 saves from 500 for his career.  He's got a chance at passing Hoffman or Rivera if he continues to age gracefully.  He's not going somewhere to be in the mix or to set up

- Cubs weren't big on Estevez, aren't big on Finnegan, but the Robertson talk seems real

- They didn't use the term "opportunistic" like they did in last week's article, but you could tell that's the vibe.  Jed has some money to burn, very few other teams do still, and this is a time of year where you can get some deals

[We Got The Whole 9]

Neither pitcher was on my radar for 5 years, that's how long they went between effectiveness. But Boyd has never reached the ceiling that Flaherty has and Flaherty actully showed that he can get back to that ceiling across a meaningful sample of innings, whereas Boyd, for all intents and purposes, pitched the best baseball of his career (largely because of a career-low HR rate) across 50 (with postseason) IP. Boyd has a 4.6 career FIP and hasn't cracked 80 IP in 5 years. That's actually an incredibly risky gamble to give him a rotation spot and 15M, even considering Flaherty's injury history.

 

It does appear that he is waiting out the Bregman market though and I'm a big Bregman fan so it's whatever. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Since the pandemic season, see if you can pick out which is Flaherty and which is Boyd

A: 4.04/3.97 ERA/FIP, 15.1% K-BB%, 9.8% HR/FB, 5.3 IP/GS

B: 3.89/4.04 ERA/FIP, 17.2% K-BB%, 14.2% HR/FB, 5.4 IP/GS

[WhyCantWeWin]

Before anyone answers TTs arbitrary endpoints question please consider Boyd has pitched 202.2 innings and Flaherty had pitched 420.2 during that span. Which is double the sample size 

[KCCub]

The "fluff" that gets tacked onto these contracts for AAV manipulation makes the Boyd - Flaherty compare seem closer than it actually is. 

At the end of the day, the contracts are -

Flaherty 1/$25m

Boyd 2/$29m

Flaherty next season is being paid as a top 10ish SP in actual $$$. Boyd is making a backend of the rotation salary. ZiPS DC has Flaherty at 2.3 fWAR and Boyd at 1.7 fWAR (In 40 less IP). Dollar for dollar spent, it's hard not to see why Boyd is likely to be the better ROI.