Post Winter Meetings Free Agency thread

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, Crusader said:

Pretty sure Kyle got a lot of love for someone with a 5.92 ERA who was in the starting rotation... Certainly a lot more love than anyone else would have gotten putting up that performance.

Agreed. We are not talking about people who post here. Talking about the Cubs fan base, they love their players. There is a difference between not wanting someone on the team because he isn’t very good any longer and being a fan and supporting the player. I think most fans still love Javy, Bryant, & Rizzo. That doesn’t mean they want them back. Kyle received a great ovation when he finished his career. He will always be loved by the fan base. But that doesn’t mean the fan base wanted him out there pitching with his 5.00 era. The fan base absolutely did not turn their backs on the 16’ team after they won. I don’t even know how that can be suggested or what it even means. 

[Bertz]

I would guess it's quite unlikely, but I wonder what the chances are that Tucker gets extended in the next few days in lieu of settling on an arbitration salary.

I think even if we knew 100% that Tucker would get extended, Opening Day +/- two weeks is by far the smartest money for when it would happen.  That said, some reasons I'm wondering about this:

- It would explain the urgency to get the Bellinger deal done despite no teed up followup move

- Not only was there not an immediate followup to the Bellinger deal, it has been deafeningly silent.  The team signed a cheap LH reliever and has been sniffing around various cheap LHH infielders.  These are not things Jed needed to free up $25M for.  You know what $25M could do though?  It could bridge you from a $16M arb salary to a $35M extension salary

- The team absolutely has to sit down and talk dollars with Tucker's camp anyway

- Arbitration negotiations are ugly, and you probably don't want your first substantive interaction with your new star to be so ugly.  Arguing about numbers between $350-400M is presumably less contentious than arguing between $15-17M

[Rcal10]

37 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I would guess it's quite unlikely, but I wonder what the chances are that Tucker gets extended in the next few days in lieu of settling on an arbitration salary.

I think even if we knew 100% that Tucker would get extended, Opening Day +/- two weeks is by far the smartest money for when it would happen.  That said, some reasons I'm wondering about this:

- It would explain the urgency to get the Bellinger deal done despite no teed up followup move

- Not only was there not an immediate followup to the Bellinger deal, it has been deafeningly silent.  The team signed a cheap LH reliever and has been sniffing around various cheap LHH infielders.  These are not things Jed needed to free up $25M for.  You know what $25M could do though?  It could bridge you from a $16M arb salary to a $35M extension salary

- The team absolutely has to sit down and talk dollars with Tucker's camp anyway

- Arbitration negotiations are ugly, and you probably don't want your first substantive interaction with your new star to be so ugly.  Arguing about numbers between $350-400M is presumably less contentious than arguing between $15-17M

An extension would be a happy surprise. But I don’t see that happening. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

The point of all that is to say I wouldn’t expect the Ricketts to put all eggs into just the Sosa (yesteryear) and Tucker (one year?) basket for the 2025 convention. There’s probably many ways to max Sosa at the convention but front and center doesn’t seem like one with so much talent available for so little due to always one Reason or another going deeper into 2.0

You have more faith in the Ricketts than I do. I absolutely think they would parade Sosa in front of adoring Cubs fans as the big deal this off season. I hope they do more. But I wouldn’t put that past them. Add Tucker too. And it will keep the fans happy. At least those at that lovefest convention. 

[Bertz]

On 1/5/2025 at 5:55 PM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

What's the over/under on career IP as a Dodger, 200 might even be high?

 

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Eno says go get Flaherty and Scott. That guy has good ideas.

[Stratos]

5 hours ago, Bertz said:

I would guess it's quite unlikely, but I wonder what the chances are that Tucker gets extended in the next few days in lieu of settling on an arbitration salary.

I think even if we knew 100% that Tucker would get extended, Opening Day +/- two weeks is by far the smartest money for when it would happen.  That said, some reasons I'm wondering about this:

- It would explain the urgency to get the Bellinger deal done despite no teed up followup move

- Not only was there not an immediate followup to the Bellinger deal, it has been deafeningly silent.  The team signed a cheap LH reliever and has been sniffing around various cheap LHH infielders.  These are not things Jed needed to free up $25M for.  You know what $25M could do though?  It could bridge you from a $16M arb salary to a $35M extension salary

- The team absolutely has to sit down and talk dollars with Tucker's camp anyway

- Arbitration negotiations are ugly, and you probably don't want your first substantive interaction with your new star to be so ugly.  Arguing about numbers between $350-400M is presumably less contentious than arguing between $15-17M

I would think if they 100% wanted to move Bellinger, which they did, then getting him off the books ASAP would be the goal.  They wouldn't want the Yanks or other teams spending on other players and closing those trade opportunities.

Unless the Cubs plan to raise payroll i'm not even sure if I'm in favour of an extension that Tucker would demand.  I'm probably out on a 10/400 type deal.  He'll be 29 when the extension would start thus close to post-prime at a position that's easy to replace internally and in FA.  As has been shown, signing guys that age to mega-deals rarely works out well.

It's not the ideal scenario but I'm ok moving prospects for a Tucker-type player still in prime age rather than using mountains of cash to get him or keep him (given our current payroll) at post-prime age.  We can always get more prospects via draft or trading guys in the future before they hit FA like Happ, Seiya, and/or Nico.  Having a Tucker is harder than having a Cam Smith.

[Stratos]

43 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Eno says go get Flaherty and Scott. That guy has good ideas.

Cubs want to find the next Flaherty-type hence Boyd.  Buy low, sell high.  They made a mistake re-signing Smyly.  Should have tried to find the next Smyly.  They initially bought low on him but re-bought high on him at post-prime ages

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

You have more faith in the Ricketts than I do. I absolutely think they would parade Sosa in front of adoring Cubs fans as the big deal this off season. I hope they do more. But I wouldn’t put that past them. Add Tucker too. And it will keep the fans happy. At least those at that lovefest convention. 

I doubt it, but they did try to parade end-of-career Arrieta in front of us to help make us forget they stopped spending money post-COVID.

I agree Sosa is a money calculation though.  But not sure how many fans are going to line up to buy his jerseys.  My old one is still in the closet and probably won't be worn again.  Other fans miss him.  They'll use the convention to try to gauge fan interest i guess.  Better than marching him out in front of 40k at Wrigley and risking tons of boos.

[Rex Buckingham]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

 

Unless the Cubs plan to raise payroll i'm not even sure if I'm in favour of an extension that Tucker would demand.  I'm probably out on a 10/400 type deal.  He'll be 29 when the extension would start thus close to post-prime at a position that's easy to replace internally and in FA.  As has been shown, signing guys that age to mega-deals rarely works out well.

It is easy to find outfielders, it is not easy to find outfielders as good as Kyle Tucker. 

Here is the list of Cubs to have more than the 4.7 WAR Tucker produced last year since 2016

2017 Kris Bryant

2018 and 2019 Javy Baez

2023 Nico Hoerner

and those Javy and KB seasons are the only ones better than his prior 3 seasons

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

It is easy to find outfielders, it is not easy to find outfielders as good as Kyle Tucker. 

Here is the list of Cubs to have more than the 4.7 WAR Tucker produced last year since 2016

2017 Kris Bryant

2018 and 2019 Javy Baez

2023 Nico Hoerner

and those Javy and KB seasons are the only ones better than his prior 3 seasons

And he did it in 78 GAMES! 

Do people not understand how insane his season was last year? The wRC difference between 2024 Kyle Tucker and peak Kris Bryant (2016) is bigger than the difference between 2016 KB and 2024 Isaac Paredes. 

In terms of raw, slash line production, the only Cub comparables in the last 40 years are Sosa and 2005 DLee. In terms of league-relative performance, it's 2001 Sammy and that's it. 

He's 6th in outfield fWAR since 2022. It's Judge, Betts, Soto, Yordan, and Julio, and on a per/PA rate he's better than Julio. That's a combined like 50 years and $2b of contracts (don't quote me on that). These guys aren't available. 80% of Kyle Tucker is an unrealistic goal for any of our outfield prospects. It's not 'not easy', it's almost impossible. 

[Stratos]

48 minutes ago, Rex Buckingham said:

It is easy to find outfielders, it is not easy to find outfielders as good as Kyle Tucker. 

Here is the list of Cubs to have more than the 4.7 WAR Tucker produced last year since 2016

2017 Kris Bryant

2018 and 2019 Javy Baez

2023 Nico Hoerner

and those Javy and KB seasons are the only ones better than his prior 3 seasons

How old were they when they put up those seasons?  What kind of seasons have Bryant and Javy had since age 30?  How has Rizzo done in his 30's compared to his 20's?

[Stratos]

33 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

And he did it in 78 GAMES! 

Do people not understand how insane his season was last year? The wRC difference between 2024 Kyle Tucker and peak Kris Bryant (2016) is bigger than the difference between 2016 KB and 2024 Isaac Paredes. 

In terms of raw, slash line production, the only Cub comparables in the last 40 years are Sosa and 2005 DLee. In terms of league-relative performance, it's 2001 Sammy and that's it. 

He's 6th in outfield fWAR since 2022. It's Judge, Betts, Soto, Yordan, and Julio, and on a per/PA rate he's better than Julio. That's a combined like 50 years and $2b of contracts (don't quote me on that). These guys aren't available. 80% of Kyle Tucker is an unrealistic goal for any of our outfield prospects. It's not 'not easy', it's almost impossible. 

78 games isn't a big sample.  He's projected for about 5 WAR again.

[Jason Ross]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

78 games isn't a big sample.  He's projected for about 5 WAR again.

Two things:

1. 78 games isn't nothing, either. It's a large enough sample that all of the data is stable and not random. So it's small, but relevant. 

2. Using projections here is a self-filling prophecy of some sorts. 2024 saw a shift in Tucker, as he hit for more power. But projections take data from his last few seasons, and his 78 games would thus be outweighed in those projections. If those changes stick, projections wont see it. So yes, his *projections* are in line with his career, but they always will be. If a change was made, that's not where you'd look to begin with. 

Ultimately you're underselling just how good Tucker is regardless. 5 win players don't grow on trees. There's no salary restrictions that should cause the Cubs to punt a potential extension here. Sign Tucker.

[BigbadB]

12 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/roki-sasaki-potential-teams-ranked

Padres #1 because…to quote…:

which doesn’t seem like much of a reason? 🤷‍♀️

Not sure how Padres or Giants would look appealing to Sasaki. Facing that Dodgers team several times a year along with being in the same division as the Dodgers would lessen the chances of winning the division for the foreseeable future. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 hour ago, BigbadB said:

Not sure how Padres or Giants would look appealing to Sasaki. Facing that Dodgers team several times a year along with being in the same division as the Dodgers would lessen the chances of winning the division for the foreseeable future. 

Yu Darvish is a mentor to him apparently and then there's the San Diego weather and beaches, the region in general is gorgeous, and the roster isn't too bad either. I don't think it's all that crazy.

[WhyCantWeWin]

Kind of morbid but maybe those wildfires turn him off cali

[Bertz]

2 hours ago, BigbadB said:

Not sure how Padres or Giants would look appealing to Sasaki. Facing that Dodgers team several times a year along with being in the same division as the Dodgers would lessen the chances of winning the division for the foreseeable future. 

Feels like having to face the juggernaut Dodgers is potentially more of a feature more than a bug

Quote

 

"I think his experience at [the World Baseball Classic]," Wolfe said, "being around [Yu] Darvish, being around [Shohei] Ohtani, and then seeing [Shota] Imanaga come over and dominate at such a level in the first half, I believe he realized … in order to take it to the next level, he had to come here, play against the best players in the world every day and tap into all the resources that Major League teams have to … help him become one of the best pitchers to ever not just come out of NPB, but to be one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball.

 

"That's what he wants, and that's why he came."

 

 

[LBiittner]

Just thinking out loud or crying out loud? 

Outside of Caleb Williams, I can't think of another big fish in a big pond of Chicago within the entire sporting industry. And quite frankly, the bears failed miserably to capture the spotlight which could've revolved around what caleb might be. 

Sasaki has the opportunity with his decision, to OWN Chicago. He has the chance to BE Chicago. Right now, no Chicago team has any dominating personalty to capture the hearts of Chicago Fandom. He could make bababillions as a media darling. He would be the face of Chicago sporting news up until, if ever, the bears get their act together. It would be a major error in judgement by agent Wolfe and Sasaki to not realize the goldmine that has been untapped since the Jordan daze.

Am I a little overboard? I think not. GitRdone Jed, Fer cripes sakes

 

[Derwood]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Just thinking out loud or crying out loud? 

Outside of Caleb Williams, I can't think of another big fish in a big pond of Chicago within the entire sporting industry. And quite frankly, the bears failed miserably to capture the spotlight which could've revolved around what caleb might be. 

Sasaki has the opportunity with his decision, to OWN Chicago. He has the chance to BE Chicago. Right now, no Chicago team has any dominating personalty to capture the hearts of Chicago Fandom. He could make bababillions as a media darling. He would be the face of Chicago sporting news up until, if ever, the bears get their act together. It would be a major error in judgement by agent Wolfe and Sasaki to not realize the goldmine that has been untapped since the Jordan daze.

Am I a little overboard? I think not. GitRdone Jed, Fer cripes sakes

 

 

lol, no

[Tim]

13 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just thinking out loud or crying out loud? 

Outside of Caleb Williams, I can't think of another big fish in a big pond of Chicago within the entire sporting industry. And quite frankly, the bears failed miserably to capture the spotlight which could've revolved around what caleb might be. 

Sasaki has the opportunity with his decision, to OWN Chicago. He has the chance to BE Chicago. Right now, no Chicago team has any dominating personalty to capture the hearts of Chicago Fandom. He could make bababillions as a media darling. He would be the face of Chicago sporting news up until, if ever, the bears get their act together. It would be a major error in judgement by agent Wolfe and Sasaki to not realize the goldmine that has been untapped since the Jordan daze.

Am I a little overboard? I think not. GitRdone Jed, Fer cripes sakes

 

Bedard is already really good and he's still a teenager. Of course, even at their peaks, Toews and Kane didn't come close to Bears/Cubs/Bulls levels of publicity.

But if the Cubs extend Tucker, he'll be the face of the franchise.

[Bertz]

So this is probably worth asking:

How good do you think Roki Sasaki is going to be?  

Because I feel like a lot of people are getting very far out in front of their skis.

[17 Seconds]

19 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just thinking out loud or crying out loud? 

Outside of Caleb Williams, I can't think of another big fish in a big pond of Chicago within the entire sporting industry. And quite frankly, the bears failed miserably to capture the spotlight which could've revolved around what caleb might be. 

Sasaki has the opportunity with his decision, to OWN Chicago. He has the chance to BE Chicago. Right now, no Chicago team has any dominating personalty to capture the hearts of Chicago Fandom. He could make bababillions as a media darling. He would be the face of Chicago sporting news up until, if ever, the bears get their act together. It would be a major error in judgement by agent Wolfe and Sasaki to not realize the goldmine that has been untapped since the Jordan daze.

Am I a little overboard? I think not. GitRdone Jed, Fer cripes sakes

 

bedard will be a top 10 player in his sport within 3 years. maybe top 5

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So this is probably worth asking:

How good do you think Roki Sasaki is going to be?  

Because I feel like a lot of people are getting very far out in front of their skis.

Real Chicago fans slug around in galoshes. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

So this is probably worth asking:

How good do you think Roki Sasaki is going to be?  

Because I feel like a lot of people are getting very far out in front of their skis.

3.0-3.3 FIP? Probably pitches 120-140 innings.