Potential Landing Spots For A Cody Bellinger Trade

[Brock Beauchamp]

MLB Trade Rumors recently wrote up a nice comprehensive list of teams that might be interested in trading for Cody Bellinger. They eliminated all teams operating under financial constraints (unfortunately, a significant portion of the league right now) and then looked for good on-field fits. Let's look at three teams that intrigued me:

Toronto Blue Jays: With the big-budget Jays so often taking the role of bridesmaid in the pursuit of high-end free agents, it feels like they're destined to be scrambling for help after Juan Soto signs elsewhere. Their competitive window is likely going to close soon as some of their high-profile hitters enter free agency. Bellinger's short-term contract (one year, two at most) could fit well with a last-ditch attempt at competition.

Los Angeles Angels: Every offseason, the Angels think they can compete. Every season, they fail to do so. While they're under new management now, ownership is the same and Arte Moreno loves to meddle in baseball affairs. Their farm system is bare but it won't take a haul to land Bellinger if the acquiring team takes on all the money. The Angels, as always, are unpredictable.

New York Yankees: This is a very good fit if they don't re-sign Soto.

It feels like any chance of a Bellinger trade rises significantly after Soto signs. If Soto signs next week, we could see Bellinger move quickly afterward. If Soto and agent Scott Boras decide to press the market, we could see Bellinger trade talks remain quiet into 2025.

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[Bertz]

I'm trying to decide if the Boyd deal makes a Bellinger trade where you don't save a ton of money make more sense or less sense.

For instance, it's not one of the three you highlighted, but MLBTR suggested Bellinger for Pressly.  In that scenario you have the bullpen more or less sorted and you've saved $12M.  Is needing to address the position player side and an additional SP with ~$45M to play with a better position than we're in right now?  I think so, at least marginally? 

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, Bertz said:

I'm trying to decide if the Boyd deal makes a Bellinger trade where you don't save a ton of money make more sense or less sense.

For instance, it's not one of the three you highlighted, but MLBTR suggested Bellinger for Pressly.  In that scenario you have the bullpen more or less sorted and you've saved $12M.  Is needing to address the position player side and an additional SP with ~$45M to play with a better position than we're in right now?  I think so, at least marginally? 

Interesting. I think I'd make that trade, probably from both sides. But it's less of an automatic "yes" from the Cubs side, I think.

[Bertz]

Royals have a pretty robust bullpen....

 

[Cuzi]

Bellinger would be a pretty terrible fit for Kauffman.

He's hit 44 HRs with the Cubs in 2 years, projected 40 by statcast over that time. In Kauffman it's projected he would have only hit 28. The majority of Bellingers HRs were in left center. He has to hit it 20 feet further in Kauffman to  get it out, with no basket.

Edited December 3, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Cuzi said:

Bellinger would be a pretty terrible fit for Kauffman.

He's hit 44 HRs with the Cubs in 2 years, projected 40 by statcast over that time. In Kauffman it's projected he would have only hit 28. The majority of Bellingers HRs were in left center. He has to hit it 20 feet further in Kauffman to  get it out, with no basket.

He would be a great fit for the Yankees, who are said to like him with or without Soto. Cubs would need to add prospects to a trade but I would want Schmidt back. I think Bellinger would do very well in Yankee stadium. Not interested in trading him for Stroman. I would rather give a prospect or two to the Yankees along with Bellinger to get a good pitcher to have for several years. 

[Bertz]

I would guess one of the appeals of the Yankees as a trade partner is they can likely take Bellinger's salary with no strings attached.  They're ~$80M under last year's payroll and have a fairly complete pitching staff.  They could do something like Bellinger plus Bregman and then use the last ~$20M to clean up around the edges.  Seems like most other teams would need to do a deal with some offsetting salary.

With Soto's decision appearing close and most of the FA pool intact, I think just saving Bellinger's salary and wiping our hands clean would be my preferred path if it's presented.

[Dfan25]

There s enough smoke on this that i think Its going to happen after Soto signs . If what they are hoping for is unload the entire salary , then the Yankees are the best fit .

They wont get anything back on this scenario though . Curious as to what they would do after because i dont think they are doing anything big on offense  .  
 

 

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, Dfan25 said:

There s enough smoke on this that i think Its going to happen after Soto signs . If what they are hoping for is unload the entire salary , then the Yankees are the best fit .

They wont get anything back on this scenario though . Curious as to what they would do after because i dont think they are doing anything big on offense  .  
 

 

Maybe Lowe from TB in a trade? 🤷Seems like something small the Cubs would do. 

Edited December 3, 2024 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I would guess one of the appeals of the Yankees as a trade partner is they can likely take Bellinger's salary with no strings attached.  They're ~$80M under last year's payroll and have a fairly complete pitching staff.  They could do something like Bellinger plus Bregman and then use the last ~$20M to clean up around the edges.  Seems like most other teams would need to do a deal with some offsetting salary.

With Soto's decision appearing close and most of the FA pool intact, I think just saving Bellinger's salary and wiping our hands clean would be my preferred path if it's presented.

I would eat a little money to get a Clayton Beeter in return. He's way down on their depth chart but he's the exact profile this FO loves and his strikeout numbers are really good.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

I would guess one of the appeals of the Yankees as a trade partner is they can likely take Bellinger's salary with no strings attached.  They're ~$80M under last year's payroll and have a fairly complete pitching staff.  They could do something like Bellinger plus Bregman and then use the last ~$20M to clean up around the edges.  Seems like most other teams would need to do a deal with some offsetting salary.

With Soto's decision appearing close and most of the FA pool intact, I think just saving Bellinger's salary and wiping our hands clean would be my preferred path if it's presented.

Giving up Bellinger's contract, so Hoyer can find more players like Boyd?

[Post Count Padder]

My preference is to keep Bellinger. But if we're intent on trading him and blowing things up a bit, what about this wild and unrealistic series of deals:

Bellinger + Paredes to the Yankees for Oswald Peraza, Roc Riggio, Clayton Beeter

Nico to the Mariners for Woo or Miller

Triantos + Jefferson Rojas + Drew Gray + Will Sanders to the Rays for Brandon Lowe + Fairbanks + Cleavinger

Alcantara + Killian+ Mervis (lol) to the A's for Langeliers

Peraza and Shaw handle 3B. All other positions accounted for. Pen gets a closer and a lefty.

 

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, Dfan25 said:

There s enough smoke on this that i think Its going to happen after Soto signs . If what they are hoping for is unload the entire salary , then the Yankees are the best fit .

They wont get anything back on this scenario though . Curious as to what they would do after because i dont think they are doing anything big on offense  .  
 

 

I would guess the team adds a starting caliber bat.  Someone who is a better hitter than Bellinger but not necessarily a better player.  In my mind's eye this is Tyler O'Neill, but don't get too hung up on him specifically.  But it looks something like this

- Yankees take Bellinger and his contract for a nominal return

- Cubs sign Tyler O'Neill for 2-3 years and $15-18M per.  He is now the starting right fielder

- In addition to backfilling Bellinger, you have A) saved $7-10M outright and (IMO) B) eliminated the need for a Patrick Wisdom backfill on the bench

The Cubs now have $35-40M to spend under the cap, and the to-do list is: additional SP, late inning reliever, reserve IFer (ideally LHH), and backup catcher.  That is a bit tight if you do all your shopping in FA, but pretty easy if you stack even one more trade on.

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Post Count Padder said:

My preference is to keep Bellinger. But if we're intent on trading him and blowing things up a bit, what about this wild and unrealistic series of deals:

Bellinger + Paredes to the Yankees for Oswald Peraza, Roc Riggio, Clayton Beeter

Nico to the Mariners for Woo or Miller

Triantos + Jefferson Rojas + Drew Gray + Will Sanders to the Rays for Brandon Lowe + Fairbanks + Cleavinger

Alcantara + Killian+ Mervis (lol) to the A's for Langeliers

Peraza and Shaw handle 3B. All other positions accounted for. Pen gets a closer and a lefty.

 

• You pick up a starter to replace Assad. +2
• You pick up a catcher to bump Amaya to back up. +1
• Bullpen upgrades. +1.5?
• Going from Paredes to Peraza/Shaw. -1.5
• Going from Hoerner to Lowe. -1.5
• Removing Bellinger as your right fielder, leaving either a hole at RF or DH. -1
• Prospect/depth, remove Triantos/Rojas/Gray/Sanders/Alcantara/Kilian, add Riggio/Beeter. Minimal 2025 loss, definitely worse off long term.

I don't know, based on all that obviously exact science above, we're netting out at like the same end game, with worse prospect depth? I missed a couple things I'm sure. 

[Bertz]

I wouldn't consider either to be a rumor, but both Kiley McDaniel and Jim Bowden wrote up "Trades I'd make" type columns today and sent Cody to the Astros.  I guess that fit from the Astros perspective is more attractive than I've been giving it credit for.

[Tryptamine]

I just don't see a realistic scenario that moving Cody in what's basically a salary dump makes the Cubs better. It's going to cost them 20M just to replace the bat, let alone the positional versatility. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

I just don't see a realistic scenario that moving Cody in what's basically a salary dump makes the Cubs better. It's going to cost them 20M just to replace the bat, let alone the positional versatility. 

I think the bet is that you can replace the bat for less than 15 million.  That could be by making a run at someone like Rooker and using the money on the pitching staff, could be signing Conforto (who looks like a good buy low-ish option given his decent 2024 performance) or Pederson, could be trading for a Brandon Lowe.  It would require some finesse, but I don't think they would pull the trigger without a clear plan in mind.

[Backtobanks]

42 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I just don't see a realistic scenario that moving Cody in what's basically a salary dump makes the Cubs better. It's going to cost them 20M just to replace the bat, let alone the positional versatility. 

Any trade for Cody or Nico has to involve getting back someone who will help in 2025.  some of the suggestions like Bellinger for Castillo makes some sense as well as Bellinger for Castellanos + Alvarado + cash.

 

[CubinNY]

51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I think the bet is that you can replace the bat for less than 15 million.  That could be by making a run at someone like Rooker and using the money on the pitching staff, could be signing Conforto (who looks like a good buy low-ish option given his decent 2024 performance) or Pederson, could be trading for a Brandon Lowe.  It would require some finesse, but I don't think they would pull the trigger without a clear plan in mind.

Pederson is a platoon player, high side, but still have to replace LH.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

17 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Pederson is a platoon player, high side, but still have to replace LH.

Joc has been pretty close to every day playing time and has a 102 wRC+ against LHP since the pandemic, but without Bellinger you want to have a bench bat that's RHH to hedge Busch and/or PCA anyway so not a big issue.

[Dfan25]

Levine says the Cubs arent looking to just get salary relief with Bellinger FWIW , and they  arent willing to eat much money . 

Edited December 6, 2024 by Dfan25

[Bertz]

Levine including the Mariners as a team talking about Bellinger and a few hours later Kaplan saying the Cubs have inquired about Luis Castillo is definitely a thing that makes you go "hmmmmm."  

[KCCub]

It’s a Bellinger article but apparently Seiya is mentioned. Ugh 
 

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

It’s a Bellinger article but apparently Seiya is mentioned. Ugh

That doesn't pass the smell test. Suzuki is the best hitter on the team. You dont trade your best hitter on a value contract because you believe you can do better with that money.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

oh thank goodness the ultimate source on that is Joel Sherman