Jeff Passan: Cubs expected to operate in "mid tier" pitching market

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

My takeaway from the article is we're pretty much Roki Sasaki or bust when it comes to a high level acquisition in the FA market, considering he'll come with a nominal cost.

Sorry to keep spinning this broken record but all of this (as well as being out on Soto) has been obvious for months. I expect multiple high-end arms to be brought in via trade and he will probably hit the FA market for established pen help. He just can't wait and grab the very last scrap again. He might get Flaherty or Kikuchi, someone not attached to picks with high upside. We were never a player for Burnes.

[CubinNY]

19 hours ago, squally1313 said:

Nico Hoerner (and then some, probably) for Kyle Teel is something to keep in the back pocket if we're 35-50 at the ASB. 

I've been on that one for more than half a season.

[squally1313]

42 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I've been on that one for more than half a season.

Yeah, for me it's a worst case scenario silver lining. No interest in the 'let's rearrange all the deck chairs just to get Hoerner out of the lineup for some reason' for a team with aspirations to win. But if things go wrong and you're looking at a lost season, then yes, clear the spot, use your attractive trade asset for more future reinforcements, etc. 

[squally1313]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

…Guys, what about any aspect of today’s MLB makes a 28 YO Nico Hoerner for Kyle Teel seem like a thing that even might happen? A “true” and Top LHH catching prospect with a shot to hit and enough athleticism to play at other spots for a player committing the crime of aging without big offense basically making a gazillion cap dollars? Its not as if Boston would be dealing from depth

 

I mean, it's the -2.3 fWAR that they got from second base last year and the fact that teams in playoff contention will be more willing to overpay in a mid-season acquisition. They probably address the issue in the next couple months, but they also have Trevor Story locked up for a 'gazillion cap dollars' for a gazillion years and their top prospect is a shortstop (with only half a year of AA under his belt). Is 1.5 years of Hoerner enough for a AAA-performing Teel? Probably not. But if we aren't going to compete in 2025 Hoerner becomes pretty in the way, big picture, if we have to package some relievers or whatever, why not. This all started with the caveat that it required us performing at like the 10th percentile outcome as a team for three months anyways.

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I mean, it's the -2.3 fWAR that they got from second base last year and the fact that teams in playoff contention will be more willing to overpay in a mid-season acquisition. They probably address the issue in the next couple months, but they also have Trevor Story locked up for a 'gazillion cap dollars' for a gazillion years and their top prospect is a shortstop (with only half a year of AA under his belt). Is 1.5 years of Hoerner enough for a AAA-performing Teel? Probably not. But if we aren't going to compete in 2025 Hoerner becomes pretty in the way, big picture, if we have to package some relievers or whatever, why not. This all started with the caveat that it required us performing at like the 10th percentile outcome as a team for three months anyways.

I agree with you. But I doubt that happens. I don’t think the Cubs will be in an obvious sell position next deadline. And, dor that matter, I don’t think the Red Sox will be in an obvious buy, either. But for the scenario you suggested, it does make sense. 

[Stratos]

On 11/12/2024 at 11:14 AM, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I believe this is the source: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/42331709/mlb-offseason-2024-25-passan-predictions-juan-soto-roki-sasaki-corbin-burnes-pete-alonso

 

The Hoerner stuff in particular feels more speculative than I'm used to seeing from Passan.  I also wonder if a hotter trade market makes FA even harder to handicap this early.

I think most all of it is speculative.  He's just giving his analysis and guesses of where players will go and what teams might do based on needs etc.  That's fine but is probably more based on "feels" and what they've done the last few offseasons more than anything.

I think the Cubs have a chance to land a one of the upper tier SP or the better mid-tier guys.

If we assume Jed is about value, paying 28m AAV for one of these aces who will typically only put up around 3.5 WAR with the higher injury risk for pitchers, it seems to me Jed would probably ideally prefer to put that kind of AAV on a bat, so one of the better mid-tier SP at a good price could be more up their alley.  But beyond Soto I don't see much 20m+ AAV position player happening this winter in FA.  Then again, Stroman was a 3.5 WAR guy.  So I don't know what they'd do.

Theo's philosophy seemed to be to draft position guys (typically college) in the high rounds and sign or trade for SP because of the young SP injury risk.

Jed's philosophy seems to be to act on maximizing value for dollar and remain flexible and sign a guy that you like who has the best contract.  I don't think they often "target" FA's unless there's no other comparable good options, e.g. Bellinger as CF the last 2 offseasons .

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

…Guys, what about any aspect of today’s MLB makes a 28 YO Nico Hoerner for Kyle Teel seem like a thing that even might happen? A “true” and Top LHH catching prospect with a shot to hit and enough athleticism to play at other spots for a player committing the crime of aging without big offense basically making a gazillion cap dollars? Its not as if Boston would be dealing from depth

 

I agree.  Getting a good young catcher will be tough, unless there's a team has more than 2.  If I had 2 good ones and nobody good in the MLB I'd want to keep both.

[thawv]

On 11/12/2024 at 10:54 AM, Bearded_Beef said:

At least they doused us with all of the cold water upfront this season. 

It looks like we're running it back unless Jed can work some trade magic this off-season.   I doubt we'll get anything too "magical" for Cody and/or Nico though.

I don't think that anything magical is necessary for Cody.  He's a negative surplus guy.  We'd have to pick up a nice chunk of his salary, or send over something else to make it work.  Nico on the other should get something back that's pretty good.  He would be more to free up Shaw's spot IMO.

[Stratos]

Cubs are mid-tier.

[harmony]

On 11/12/2024 at 12:14 PM, squally1313 said:

Can definitely see the math there. I just think that the 4 fWAR SP you're picking up is either coming from A. a rebuilding team (Miami, Crochet, etc) who would have no interest in only two years of Hoerner, or B. a Mariners esque team (said another way: the Mariners), who just rode their all-pitching/no-offense roster to another non-playoff year, and I can't see them being too intrigued by Hoerner. Really, in both those situations, unless the other teams projections of Shaw is significantly off, Shaw is the guy who is going to get you the biggest return pitching wise. Yeah, you're losing probably the biggest piece of your system, but you're keeping maximum value at second base and probably optimizing the pitching you're getting back. 

This year the Cubs posted a team wRC+ of 101 while Seattle's "no-offense roster" posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15.

The Mariners have the American League's fourth-best cumulative regular-season record over the past four seasons but have landed only one postseason berth, finishing one game back of the final Wild Card slot twice and two games back once. The Cubs and Mariners are at different stages in their returns to relevance.

 

[squally1313]

12 hours ago, harmony said:

This year the Cubs posted a team wRC+ of 101 while Seattle's "no-offense roster" posted a team wRC+ of 104, including a league-leading wRC+ of 118 after August 15.

The Mariners have the American League's fourth-best cumulative regular-season record over the past four seasons but have landed only one postseason berth, finishing one game back of the final Wild Card slot twice and two games back once. The Cubs and Mariners are at different stages in their returns to relevance.

 

Fair point on the offense thing, they made some moves at the deadline that definitely helped them pick it up. In terms of stages/relevance/etc, I think it's more likely the Cubs make the playoffs in 2025 than the Mariners do. 

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fair point on the offense thing, they made some moves at the deadline that definitely helped them pick it up. In terms of stages/relevance/etc, I think it's more likely the Cubs make the playoffs in 2025 than the Mariners do. 

Close call:

https://www.mlb.com/news/power-rankings-2025-mlb-season

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/42080015/mlb-2025-way-too-early-power-rankings-dodgers-yankees-mets

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5890641/2024/11/04/2025-mlb-power-rankings-offseason/

[Bertz]

Via fangraphs depth charts the Mariners rank:

21st at 1B

22nd at 2B

18th at SS

24th at 3B

25th at DH

They also already have a higher payroll than they have at any point since COVID before they make a single move.  I'd be surprised if they have more than one move of substance salary wise in them.

I'm sure they love their young starters, why wouldn't they?  But there are only so many ways to upgrade their crap infield without spending a bunch of money that Jerry seems unlikely to have available to him.