Cody Opts In

[chibears55]

20 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Youre missing something in your math then. It's been reported plenty of times, even dating back to Oct 1st by Sharma in the Athletic that an opt-in would leave the Cubs roughly $50m below that of what they spent in 2024. It would have been around $80m had he opted out. Don't know what youre missing, but that's the number.

Did that include not opting in on Smyly 10 mil ? I saw 51.6 but not sure if that was with the 10 mil or with the 2.5 buyout

Either way though, whether it 50+ or 60+,  I think the bulk of that will go towards pitching and possibly Sugano if they land him.

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

Here's my numbers.  Please correct me with your numbers.  This is Cot's CBA numbers.

Contracts (7)

Belli 26.7

Dansby 25.3

Happ 20.3

Suzuki 17

Jaimo 17

Imanago 13.2

Nico 11.7

Total 131.2 million

 

Arb guys (4)

Steele 6.3

Paredes 5.3

Pearson 1.2

Merryweather 1.2

Total 14 million

 

0-3 guys (12)

Assad

Wesneski

Amaya

Miller

Busch

Wicks

Little

Brown

PCA

Kilian

Hodge

Vasquez

Total approx 9.3 million

 

Total 154.5 million

 

If we use Cot's as gospel, and just back out all the arb guys accept for the 4 I have listed, we are at 170.9 million.  So unless I'm missing something, it's nowhere near 50 million under the CBT.  I see them anywhere from 70 million ish to 86 million ish under.

 

Honestly, help me with this.  What do YOU see?  Not Sharma.   

Player benefits, estimated at $17.5M.  Salaries for guys on the 40 man but not the 26 man, which is another ~$2.5.  There's also the pre-arb player bonus pool which is $1.7 per team.  It's also smart to build in some buffer for guys going on the IL, which is what ultimately put the Cubs over this year.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, chibears55 said:

Did that include not opting in on Smyly 10 mil ? I saw 51.6 but not sure if that was with the 10 mil or with the 2.5 buyout

Either way though, whether it 50+ or 60+,  I think the bulk of that will go towards pitching and possibly Sugano if they land him.

That 51.6 is tendering every arb guy.  Look at my numbers above and please correct them. 

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

Player benefits, estimated at $17.5M.  Salaries for guys on the 40 man but not the 26 man, which is another ~$2.5.  There's also the pre-arb player bonus pool which is $1.7 per team.  It's also smart to build in some buffer for guys going on the IL, which is what ultimately put the Cubs over this year.

I edited it after I forgot that.  It's still 65 million under

You quoted my old post

Edited November 3, 2024 by thawv

[Bertz]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

I edited it after I forgot that.  It's still 65 million under

You quoted my old post

You only have 23 players on the 26 man roster, and there's no chance in hell the team non tenders Tauchman.

[thawv]

1 minute ago, Bertz said:

You only have 23 players on the 26 man roster, and there's no chance in hell the team non tenders Tauchman.

Of course there's only 23 guys on the roster.  It's not completed.  This is before free agency.  You think they are going to have 26 guys on the roster tomorrow, and not add anybody? 

I think it's time to consider Canario over Tauchman.

 

Instead of criticizing and challenging my roster, put something together with the payroll and we can discuss it.  

[Bertz]

Just now, thawv said:

Of course there's only 23 guys on the roster.  It's not completed.  This is before free agency.  You think they are going to have 26 guys on the roster tomorrow, and not add anybody? 

I think it's time to consider Canario over Tauchman.

 

Instead of criticizing and challenging my roster, put something together with the payroll and we can discuss it.  

Don't get pissy with me because you work sloppy and wondered why your numbers didn't match up with everyone elses.

[chibears55]

Still pretty sad that they likely won't be players for one of the best impact player that will be available via FA and is only 26 YO.

 

 

[jersey cubs fan]

40 minutes ago, thawv said:

I've done the math several times,  I had 92 million with Cody opting out, and 65 with him not opting out.  I have 10-11 guy getting non tendered.  Cot's still has those salaries in their numbers.  Back those out, and you have the correct payroll. 

 

Who is replacing the 10-11 guys getting non tendered? Free players?

[Cuzi]

15 minutes ago, Bertz said:

With Bellinger gone I had 80, and that included about $5M as buffer so you could call it 85 if you want to be super literal.  Bellinger opting in cuts $27M, which brings us down to~$53M.  Smart money is always to round down, hence $50.  But you could maybe call it $55 with a Tauchman trade seemingly pretty inevitable?

Where does this belief that Tauchman is inevitable to be traded come from? Is it just hope? He's a 360 OBP 4th outfielder for what? $3M? Trade him to call up one of your top prospects that are striking out 30% of the time in AAA? I dont see it as inevitable.

[thawv]

26 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Don't get pissy with me because you work sloppy and wondered why your numbers didn't match up with everyone elses.

I was more mad at myself for forgetting to add the additional CBT money before I sent the post, and then you quoted my old post.  I apologize. 

 

My original post was fixed and it's still at 65 million under the cap.  Everybody is working off all 14 players getting tendered a contract.

 

What number do you see under the cap?

Edited November 3, 2024 by thawv

[thawv]

6 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

Who is replacing the 10-11 guys getting non tendered? Free players?

It's listed above.  I have a 23 man roster heading into FA.  All kidding aside, did you not see the list of players??

Edited November 3, 2024 by thawv

[Transmogrified Tiger]

You have to count a handful of extra league minimum salaries to account for the fact that players on the IL still earn money towards the CBT and so do their replacements even if they get demoted after.  Fangraphs counts league minimum salaries up to 33 players for this reason and they're about the gold standard for this estimate: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/cubs

This also means that non-tendering only nets you the benefit *above the league minimum*.  Fangraphs shows the team at 43.3 million under with all players assumed tendered.  If you assume a handful of non-tenders that gets you to the low 50s depending on who you choose, but there's no way to really get north of 55 unless you do something silly like non-tender Steele or Paredes.

[Bertz]

19 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Where does this belief that Tauchman is inevitable to be traded come from? Is it just hope? He's a 360 OBP 4th outfielder for what? $3M? Trade him to call up one of your top prospects that are striking out 30% of the time in AAA? I dont see it as inevitable.

Mike Tauchman got less than 50 plate appearances in August and September combined.  He's a nice player, so he obviously won't get non tendered, but on a roster with both Bellinger and PCA he's clearly pretty redundant.

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Mike Tauchman got less than 50 plate appearances in August and September combined.  He's a nice player, so he obviously won't get non tendered, but on a roster with both Bellinger and PCA he's clearly pretty redundant.

I'm going to assume a chunk of the PAs Wisdom was forced into to end the season will go to Tauchman and Wisdom is pretty clearly going to be gone.

Without a move for a DH/OF, I dont see the redundancy in Tauchman. He's currently the bench OFer. Something every team carries on the roster.

Edited November 3, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

8 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'm going to assume a chunk of the PAs Wisdom was forced into to end the season will go to Tauchman and Wisdom is pretty clearly going to be gone.

Without a move for a DH/OF, I dont see the redundancy in Tauchman. He's currently the bench OFer. Something every team carries on the roster.

The overwhelming majority of Wisdom’s playing time came as a PH against LHP or as an infielder (against a LHP SP), it makes no sense to think Tauchman is a fit.  They would get another OF(technically the 5th behind Happ, PCA, Bellinger, Seiya), but that player being a RHH (and probably with some HR pop) meets the team’s needs much better.

[Donzo]

45 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Still pretty sad that they likely won't be players for one of the best impact player that will be available via FA and is only 26 YO.

 

 

How so?

I have zero problems with the Cubs passing on a $600M contract.

 

[Cuzi]

2 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The overwhelming majority of Wisdom’s playing time came as a PH against LHP or as an infielder (against a LHP SP), it makes no sense to think Tauchman is a fit.  They would get another OF(technically the 5th behind Happ, PCA, Bellinger, Seiya), but that player being a RHH (and probably with some HR pop) meets the team’s needs much better.

People spend too much time on this RHH vs LHP and vice versa horsefeathers. Tauchman carries the exact same career wRC+ against LH and RH pitching. He carrries a better average against LHP than he does RHP.

They have to first get that 5th outfielder before Tauchman becomes redundant. They havent done that and there's no reason to believe they will. They have $50M to work with to find a catcher and pitching and replace the infield bench.

[17 Seconds]

4 minutes ago, Donzo said:

How so?

I have zero problems with the Cubs passing on a $600M contract.

 

yup, gotta make sure we can hit 83 wins in 2034

[Bertz]

Just now, Transmogrified Tiger said:

The overwhelming majority of Wisdom’s playing time came as a PH against LHP or as an infielder (against a LHP SP), it makes no sense to think Tauchman is a fit.  They would get another OF(technically the 5th behind Happ, PCA, Bellinger, Seiya), but that player being a RHH (and probably with some HR pop) meets the team’s needs much better.

Yeah I'd expect next year's bench to be:

- Backup catcher

- Backup Infielder - Ideally lefty but not mandatory)

- Power bat - Being a righty pretty close to mandatory.  Positionally they can be a bit agnostic with Bellinger in the fold

- TBD - This is the spot the kids will break in, but coming out of camp it might be something weird like a 3rd catcher or a dedicated base stealer.  Technically Tauchman could have this spot, but I think they'd prefer someone they're more comfortable cutting

[Transmogrified Tiger]

4 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

People spend too much time on this RHH vs LHP and vice versa horsefeathers. Tauchman carries the exact same career wRC+ against LH and RH pitching. He carrries a better average against LHP than he does RHP.

They have to first get that 5th outfielder before Tauchman becomes redundant. They havent done that and there's no reason to believe they will. They have $50M to work with to find a catcher and pitching and replace the infield bench.

Tauchman has 9 career PH PA against LHP, 1 of those has come with the Cubs.  He’s not an infielder. If you think they may keep him as the last bench option because he’s got a contact profile that is more split neutral, that’s fine.  But the idea that platoon splits are irrelevant in a bench role or that Tauchman would take any meaningful playing time that went to Wisdom is silly.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

With Bellinger gone I had 80, and that included about $5M as buffer so you could call it 85 if you want to be super literal.  Bellinger opting in cuts $27M, which brings us down to~$53M.  Smart money is always to round down, hence $50.  But you could maybe call it $55 with a Tauchman trade seemingly pretty inevitable?

Yeah you *maybe* find an extra $5m over $50m if you really squeeze thrle fruit. Tauchmann probably brings back a player with a contract (like a reliever type), so it might end up being a bit of a wash money-wise. But I think we are well short of $65m as well. $50m is my best case barring a major change of heart at the top levels, which I don't expect.

[Cuzi]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Tauchman has 9 career PH PA against LHP, 1 of those has come with the Cubs.  He’s not an infielder. If you think they may keep him as the last bench option because he’s got a contact profile that is more split neutral, that’s fine.  But the idea that platoon splits are irrelevant in a bench role or that Tauchman would take any meaningful playing time that went to Wisdom is silly.

A good hitter is a good hitter. Splits matter when they are lopsided. They aren't for Tauchman. Yankees are over there carrying Trent Grisham at $5.5M as their bench OFer and we are acting like Tauchman doesnt fit. You guys have insane standards for bench players.

Edited November 3, 2024 by Cuzi

[Donzo]

24 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

yup, gotta make sure we can hit 83 wins in 2034

Yeah, that's what passing on $600M contract means... yeah

 

[Rcal10]

17 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah you *maybe* find an extra $5m over $50m if you really squeeze thrle fruit. Tauchmann probably brings back a player with a contract (like a reliever type), so it might end up being a bit of a wash money-wise. But I think we are well short of $65m as well. $50m is my best case barring a major change of heart at the top levels, which I don't expect.

It looks to me that at the very top high end they have $57M-$58M. That being the case, I would assume they would hold some back in the event of a trade deadline move. So brings us to probably $50M-$53M to add. Basically what you are saying. But, IMO, that is enough to make this a very good team. Add via trade or free agency a decent catcher, probably a decent right handed bat, a high end pitcher and a pen arm or two and maybe a lefty bat for the infield and the team should be very good. They have several prospects they can use in a trade as well as Tauchman to trade. Depending on if they want to spend money to get the players or minor league assets to get the players they should have enough money  and/or young talent to do all of that.