Jim Bowden's FA Contract predictions

[Transmogrified Tiger]

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5863532/2024/10/24/mlb-free-agents-2024-contract-team-predictions-soto/?source=user_shared_article

Bowden is pretty useless for connecting players to teams, but his track record on contract details isn't bad.  No one bats 1.000 and there are a few obvious head-scratchers in the list, but this is a good first calibration step on what some players may cost.  Some noteworthy names from the list:

 

• Soto 15/622
• Fried 6/174
• Alonso 7/204 (not. a. chance.)
• Snell: 3/105
• Santander 7/150 (see Alonso)
• Bellinger 4/112
• Flaherty 3/68
• Eovaldi 2/42 + team option
• Teoscar 3/75
• Buehler 1/10 + incentives
• O'Neill 2/32
• Pederson 2/26
• Kikuchi 3/42
• Brandon Lowe 2/24 after 10.5 option declined (???)

[Bertz]

Eovaldi at that price is a no brainer, as is O'neill.  Kikuchi at that price is criminal, I feel like the over/under is at least double that (in dollars not years).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Just now, Bertz said:

Eovaldi at that price is a no brainer, as is O'neill.  Kikuchi at that price is criminal, I feel like the over/under is at least double that (in dollars not years).

I'm a little gunshy of O'Neill and would probably put Kikuchi more at Eovaldi AAV on 3 years, but  of a similar mind. 

The other one that sticks out to me is Joc, especially compared to the numbers put forward for Alonso, Santander, and Teoscar.  Assuming a Bellinger opt-out, you could do a lot worse than an FA-only offseason of Eovaldi, Joc, Holmes, Jansen, plus another reliever and bench bat.

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm a little gunshy of O'Neill and would probably put Kikuchi more at Eovaldi AAV on 3 years, but  of a similar mind. 

The other one that sticks out to me is Joc, especially compared to the numbers put forward for Alonso, Santander, and Teoscar.  Assuming a Bellinger opt-out, you could do a lot worse than an FA-only offseason of Eovaldi, Joc, Holmes, Jansen, plus another reliever and bench bat.

I definitely get reservations on O'neill.  He's kind of like a reverse of Happ where you know for certain he will masher lefties, but he only intermittently hits righties.  For me I'd be very excited to get him in the door at a price like this, but very quickly lose interest as dollars (and especially years) start rising.

Joc would be interesting.  Obviously forces Suzuki back into nearly full time fielder duty, but a great way to juice the offense if Bellinger leaves.

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I'm a little gunshy of O'Neill and would probably put Kikuchi more at Eovaldi AAV on 3 years, but  of a similar mind. 

The other one that sticks out to me is Joc, especially compared to the numbers put forward for Alonso, Santander, and Teoscar.  Assuming a Bellinger opt-out, you could do a lot worse than an FA-only offseason of Eovaldi, Joc, Holmes, Jansen, plus another reliever and bench bat.

Which Jansen? Pen arm or catcher? Either way, if it is the pen arm then they trade for a catcher. If it is the catcher they trade for a pen arm. Sneaky good off season if they added someone like Mountcastle as a right handed bench option. No “WOW” signing or major trade, but a pretty solid off season. 

[Stratos]

I think he's a little rich on most of the 4+ year deals.

[Irrelevant Dude]

622M for Soto is an oddly specific number to end up at, but let's do it.  By the time he gets to the back half of that deal where his performance is a serious concern (33-34 and over?), that $40M/year isn't going to hurt nearly as much as it does in 2024 dollars.  Pay the man.

[UMFan83]

Like TT pointed out he's not usually super accurate on the teams, but I find it interesting that the only time the Cubs are mentioned as a fit are for Bellinger and Blake Treinen lol

[squally1313]

43 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Which Jansen? Pen arm or catcher? Either way, if it is the pen arm then they trade for a catcher. If it is the catcher they trade for a pen arm. Sneaky good off season if they added someone like Mountcastle as a right handed bench option. No “WOW” signing or major trade, but a pretty solid off season. 

Probably leaves room for the Cease/King trade idea being bounced around elsewhere too. I can't see the names TT mentioned getting all that close to $80m (in a Bellinger opt out world), King or Cease at $15m or so in their last year of arbitration should still fit. Still no long term contracts on the books, or an elite bat in the lineup, but Taillon as your fifth pitcher is real appetizing. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

6 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Probably leaves room for the Cease/King trade idea being bounced around elsewhere too. I can't see the names TT mentioned getting all that close to $80m (in a Bellinger opt out world), King or Cease at $15m or so in their last year of arbitration should still fit. Still no long term contracts on the books, or an elite bat in the lineup, but Taillon as your fifth pitcher is real appetizing. 

Giving a little buffer for those estimates to be low, call it:

25 Eovaldi
15 Joc
10 Jansen (Danny)
12 Holmes
6 RP2
6 Bench Bat

You're north of 70 million.  So room to play with(and to be clear I don't *want* an all-FA offseason given the trade market may be more robust than last year), but not leaving a huge chunk of cash on the table.

[Rcal10]

51 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Giving a little buffer for those estimates to be low, call it:

25 Eovaldi
15 Joc
10 Jansen (Danny)
12 Holmes
6 RP2
6 Bench Bat

You're north of 70 million.  So room to play with(and to be clear I don't *want* an all-FA offseason given the trade market may be more robust than last year), but not leaving a huge chunk of cash on the table.

I think I would rather trade for Cease and not sign a second pen arm. The Cease trade drops Assad into the pen, if Assad isn’t in the trade, which would be the second pen arm you talked about. If your number was $70M including the pen arm and Cease cost $15M annual, saving $6M by not adding a pen arm would put them just under the $80M they will have to spend. And they would have a great 5 man staff. 

Edited October 24, 2024 by Rcal10

[squally1313]

23 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Giving a little buffer for those estimates to be low, call it:

25 Eovaldi
15 Joc
10 Jansen (Danny)
12 Holmes
6 RP2
6 Bench Bat

You're north of 70 million.  So room to play with(and to be clear I don't *want* an all-FA offseason given the trade market may be more robust than last year), but not leaving a huge chunk of cash on the table.

Yeah fine, I was using the above numbers for Eovaldi and Joc (so 34 instead of 40), and didn't really anticipate another 12 in total for the bottom two spots. Think if you can get a Cease (arb estimate: 13.7) or King (7.8), you live with Ben Brown instead of a 6 reliever and/or just ride with a Tauchman/Amaya/MIF/Canario for a little while

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Giving a little buffer for those estimates to be low, call it:

25 Eovaldi
15 Joc
10 Jansen (Danny)
12 Holmes
6 RP2
6 Bench Bat

You're north of 70 million.  So room to play with(and to be clear I don't *want* an all-FA offseason given the trade market may be more robust than last year), but not leaving a huge chunk of cash on the table.

I'd do those, maybe swap Eovaldi with Flaherty.  Could platoon Joc with Canario or an acquired RHH bench bat.

If Bellinger stays then they may have to go dirt cheap on the rest of the pen and bench.

[Illiterate Scholar]

With Nico's status potentially in doubt to start the year, I'll predict Brandon Lowe will be a Cub. He makes sense even if Nico were perfectly healthy, but this adds to it. That said, it would 100% have to come via trade which we could obviously do.

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Illiterate Scholar said:

With Nico's status potentially in doubt to start the year, I'll predict Brandon Lowe will be a Cub. He makes sense even if Nico were perfectly healthy, but this adds to it. That said, it would 100% have to come via trade which we could obviously do.

Considering the Cubs and Rays did make a deal at the deadline, I am pretty sure each tr knows what the other might want or be willing to give in a Lowe deal. So I agree that Lowe is a strong possibility as a trade target. 

[Cuzi]

I would rather watch how Gleyber Torres' market develops than trade for Brandon Lowe. Torres is at that same point as Bellinger. He's young enough to bet on himself to rebound and still get a fat contract if he does. If teams are only offering him short term deals and if Hoerner isn't going to be ready til a few months into the year, why not just go after Torres and then flip him at the deadline if he does well.

You should trade for something you can't get out of FA.

Edited October 25, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

21 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I would rather watch how Gleyber Torres' market develops than trade for Brandon Lowe. Torres is at that same point as Bellinger. He's young enough to bet on himself to rebound and still get a fat contract if he does. If teams are only offering him short term deals and if Hoerner isn't going to be ready til a few months into the year, why not just go after Torres and then flip him at the deadline if he does well.

You should trade for something you can't get out of FA.

I don’t mind Torres either. But if Bellinger does opt out I would rather get a lefty bat to replace him. An added bonus is Lowe can also play the outfield. That would be the reason I would be interested in Lowe. And frankly, why not Lowe and Torres. If Bellinger opts out, once Nico does come back, that gives the Cubs 9 guys for 8 non catching spots. So there will always be a solid bat in the bench. If they aren’t going big (and we don’t know their plans), in a trade of a FA pick up, this would be a way to strengthen the team. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

24 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I would rather watch how Gleyber Torres' market develops than trade for Brandon Lowe. Torres is at that same point as Bellinger. He's young enough to bet on himself to rebound and still get a fat contract if he does. If teams are only offering him short term deals and if Hoerner isn't going to be ready til a few months into the year, why not just go after Torres and then flip him at the deadline if he does well.

You should trade for something you can't get out of FA.

Torres is a worse hitter, worse defender, and worse baserunner, hits with less useful handedness for that role, may be more expensive than Lowe, and may not be willing to take a short term deal with an uncertain everyday role/defensive position. 

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t mind Torres either. But if Bellinger does opt out I would rather get a lefty bat to replace him. An added bonus is Lowe can also play the outfield. That would be the reason I would be interested in Lowe. And frankly, why not Lowe and Torres. If Bellinger opts out, once Nico does come back, that gives the Cubs 9 guys for 8 non catching spots. So there will always be a solid bat in the bench. If they aren’t going big (and we don’t know their plans), in a trade of a FA pick up, this would be a way to strengthen the team. 

Lowe has played a total of 331 innings in the OF in his career and hasn't played any significant time or any at all in the OF since 2021. Lets try not to look at him as an OFer. He's as much of an OFer as Happ is a 2B.

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Torres is a worse hitter, worse defender, and worse baserunner, hits with less useful handedness for that role, may be more expensive than Lowe, and may not be willing to take a short term deal with an uncertain everyday role/defensive position. 

He wouldnt have an uncertain position if Hoerner isn't going to be ready. And Torres is not a worse hitter.

Edited October 25, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

He wouldnt have an uncertain position if Hoerner isn't going to be ready.

Nico isn't going to miss the whole year or even the first half, there's uncertainty around him being available for opening day but not for months into the season.  If Torres is signing a short term deal to set up a larger payday, he is definitely going to see that he does not have a defensive home to prove himself, especially compared to other suitors who do not have gold glovers at the only position he (attempts to) plays defensively.

[Derwood]

If Bellinger opts out, is the prevailing assumption that Seiya is the de facto RF and they would pursue a DH bat, or that Seiya is the DH and they would pursue an OF?

I'm assuming Soto is a non-starter with this FO

[Rcal10]

34 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Lowe has played a total of 331 innings in the OF in his career and hasn't played any significant time or any at all in the OF since 2021. Lets try not to look at him as an OFer. He's as much of an OFer as Happ is a 2B.

I don’t know about not calling him an outfielder. The dodgers played Edmans, Betts, and Taylor in the outfield and infield, They even played SS. If it is good enough for them to mix guys all over the field, I am not sure why we can’t put Lowe in the outfield. And if not, than DH. If Bellinger opts out, IMO, he is a better option than Torres because he hits from the left side and is better offensively. But it will all come down to cost. If Torres is willing to sign a short deal and the Cubs have to give up what they are not comfortable giving up for Lowe, then sign Torres. But it can easily go the other way too. Torres might get a 4-6 year deal and an average higher than he should get, and Lowe’s cost might not be something the Cubs view as too extreme. So trade for Lowe. All equal, meaning they are ok with either acquisition cost, and they can only have one of those players, I would take Lowe.

[Rcal10]

44 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

And Torres is not a worse hitter.

Neither stats from last year or from their career agree with this. I am sure you can find some metrics to explain why Torres, with worse career number as well as worse numbers last year is a better hitter, but Lowe ends up with better results. This goes for both last year and over his career. And he hits left handed. Also a plus, assuming he is replacing Bellinger in the line up. 

[squally1313]

48 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

And Torres is not a worse hitter.

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