A Big, Creative Cubs-Twins Trade That Just Might Work for Everyone

[Matthew Trueblood]

Can I interest you in a trade that would bolster the Cubs' rotation by drawing from the Twins' bullpen, and upgrade the Twins' big-league outfield while also giving them payroll flexibility?

The first thing you need to know about this potential trade is that it's just a sketch, meant to bring light to a couple of more important issues affecting each team. While I would find this specific trade proposal compelling, it's unlikely that either side would actually pull the trigger on it, and that itself is part of the story.

The second thing you need to know is that Griffin Jax wants to be a starting pitcher again, after spending the last two seasons becoming increasingly dominant at the back end of the Minnesota Twins bullpen. The third thing you need to know is that Kevin Alcántara is blocked in Chicago and in need of an outlet to the big leagues. Let's stop counting, now, but here's some other vital information about these two teams and their fit on a potential trade this winter:

• The Twins continue to face self-inflicted, self-destructive payroll constraints, making it functionally impossible for them to keep both Christian Vázquez and Ryan Jeffers, whom they've deployed in an unprecedentedly even timeshare over the last two seasons but who will cost roughly $15 million as a duo in 2025.
• The Cubs enter the offseason with money to spend on a big bat somewhere in their lineup, but they also need to get creative about improving the front end of their starting rotation. Specifically, they suffer from a lack of sheer velocity and overall stuff from their starters, and the problem runs much deeper than Kyle Hendricks.
• Chicago helped Miguel Amaya unlock his offensive upside last season, but he's a subpar defender behind the plate, and the Cubs front office is unlikely to accept below-average work from that position--arguably the most important on the diamond for run prevention, other than pitcher.

Ok, enough throat-clearing. Let's lay out the trade I think would help both of these teams quite a bit, and then expand on the reasons why I think so.

Cubs Get:

• Griffin Jax, RHP: Will turn 30 years old next month. Three years of team control remaining. MLB Trade Rumors projected arbitration earnings for 2025: $2.6 million.
• Christian Vázquez, Catcher: 34 years old. Entering final season of three-year, $30-million deal. Will make $10 million in 2025.

Twins Get: 

• Kevin Alcántara, OF: 22 years old. No. 27 overall prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Already on 40-man roster, but can be optioned for one more season. Got a cup of coffee to close this season.
• Brody McCullough, RHP: 24 years old. No. 13 prospect in Cubs system, according to FanGraphs. Has made only a very brief appearance at Double A, but also doesn't need to be added to 40-man roster for protection from Rule 5 Draft until after 2025.

This trade would clear as much as $13 million in expected salary for the 2025 Twins, and it would immediately fill a critical role for them. Alcántara is a right-handed hitter who's essentially ready for the majors, and is a plus defensive center fielder. He's not currently ready to be an average-plus hitter in the big leagues, but he has All-Star upside and six years of team control left. He would be the fallback plan for Byron Buxton in center field, a platoon partner for both Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner in the corners, and an important step toward making the brutally slow, unathletic Twins a more dynamic team. He's a premium piece, despite his lack of offensive refinement.

McCullough is a throw-in, but an interesting one. Knee surgery ended his 2023 season, and after a late start, his 2024 season had an abrupt, premature end with another injury. When he's been on the mound, though, the 2022 draftee has been very impressive, and he could fall in line with the rest of the flowing Twins pitching pipeline, if he can just get healthy enough to benefit from the team's superb pitching development system.

That's what the Twins stand to gain: a role player with humongous upside and flexible team control, a 40-man roster spot to play with, and some serious spending power. For the Cubs, it's a much more present-focused move, but no less variable. The key to this proposal is that Jax wouldn't come in as a prospective relief ace for next year's team, alongside Porter Hodge. Instead, he'd convert back to the starting rotation, taking with him much of the velocity he gained when he first moved from that unit to the bullpen in 2022. That's because that bump isn't all about his compressed workload since becoming a reliever. He's also made major mechanical improvements over that span. Chris Langin, the director of pitching for Driveline, laid out the case for Jax as a starter earlier this year, in a compelling YouTube video:

Jax is already 30, but his arm isn't. Because his service in the Air Force kept him away from the game for stretches throughout his ascent through the minors, and because of the move to the pen upon reaching the big leagues, he's thrown fewer than 600 total professional innings--despite not having notable injury problems at any point. Even if you bake in his collegiate work, he's thrown fewer than 1,000 innings of competitive baseball through the end of his 20s.

That doesn't mean Jax will be good until he's 40, but for the three seasons of team control he has left, there's good reason to hope he could be the next Garrett Crochet, Reynaldo López, or Seth Lugo. He throws five different pitches, including both a sweeper and a changeup that can be devastating. Even if his fastball shrinks back from sitting 97 and touching 99 to sitting 95 and touching 97, he has the profile of a starter with elite upside.

In this scenario, the Cubs would give up one of their top prospects, but they'd do it with the idea that they can slot Jax in alongside Justin Steele, Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon and Javier Assad in a fully-stocked, top-tier rotation for the next two or three years. There would be injuries and failures, but Jordan Wicks, Cade Horton, Ben Brown, and Brandon Birdsell would be available to backfill when those breaches took place.

The team would also solve its catching conundrum, because Vázquez is the perfect complement to Amaya. Since Amaya is still making the league-minimum salary, he and Vázquez would represent a reasonable investment in the position, and Vázquez is a good enough all-around defender--good framer, fine thrower, excellent handler of pitchers both in terms of game-planning and in terms of managing difficult innings or outings--to justify more playing time than a true scrap-heap pickup like this year's Christian Bethancourt and Tomás Nido experiments could. His contract has negative value, especially to the cash-strapped Twins, but the Cubs could take it on easily. Unlike the Twins, they can win without efficiently spending every remaining dime.

The Twins could just keep Jax, but they don't need him as a starter, and therefore, they don't need to take the risks that still exist if he does try to move back into that role. He could anchor their bullpen and they could trade Jhoan Durán, who actually projects to make anywhere from $1 million to $1.5 million more than Jax, but Durán's diminished velocity this year will have teams asking careful questions before turning over top talent for him.

Nor will any team trade as much for a pure reliever, like Durán, as they would for a player they would view as a starter. If you doubt this, note the surprise that met the deals signed by López, Jordan Hicks, and Lugo last winter. Those free agents had been considered relievers, so when they signed for guaranteed amounts ranging from $30 million to $45 million, fans were briefly shocked--until each team announced their intentions to move those players into starting roles. Now, two of those deals look like bargains.

The Cubs could shop Alcántara for starters who have already proved their ability to stay healthy and succeed in that role. Jax hasn't yet done that, which is why he should be available for a prospect package starting with Alcántara, rather than Matt Shaw. However, this move is perfect for them, because it allows them to leverage their wealth advantage without plunging into free agency and locking into a long-term deal. Thought they would receive Vázquez, taking on his salary would effectively be a benefit to the Twins, like throwing in another prospect alongside Alcántara and McCullough.

Each side would be accepting significant risk, because that deal is a loser for the Cubs if Jax doesn't make it as a starter, and it's a loser for the Twins if Alcántara doesn't figure out how to lift the ball and/or make more consistent contact. Each side also faces difficult constraints and/or substantial risks associated with inaction, too, though. The Cubs don't have the available playing time to give all their intriguing position players enough run to prove themselves, and they need to win now, not wait around. The Twins need to clear Vázquez's salary so that they can address other needs on their roster, and they need to turn away from the plodding, pull-and-lift, defensively limited player profile they've clung to for the last few years.

Again, I really like this framework, but it's only an outline. The idea is to illustrate the creative options each side needs to ready themselves to pursue this winter, and the way their respective needs and surpluses might overlap. It's not designed to be a done deal, as-is. I'm posting this piece at both North Side Baseball and Twins Daily, in a rare bit of cross-posting to get both of our communities talking. If you don't think your side comes out well enough in this trade, you might be right--but check out the other version of the article, where you might see fans of the other team saying the same thing.

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[Bertz]

I actually really like the broad strokes of this plan, but Vazquez just doesn't hold up his end of the deal.  His offense is disqualifying.  His 60 wRC+ is the same as Amaya's pre ASB number.  You would be *needing* something like an 80th percentile outcome out of Amaya to not just totally be punting catcher offense again.  I'd probably rather just run it back with Bethancourt, and I really do not want to just run it back with Bethancourt, meaning this is pure salary dumo.

Jax too is fun, and I'd guess about as high probability of a Relief -> Starter conversion candidate as we've seen in a while.  That said you really can't expect bulk innings out of him.  I can think of 5 recent conversion candidates: Lopez, Crochet, Lugo, Lorenzen, Hicks.  None topped 150 innings in year 1, and Crochet had to spend half a season topping out at 4 innings per start.  Given that the Cubs targeting a SP is in big part about innings uncertainty, it feels like Jax would have to be part of a 2 SP offseason.  His salary makes that very doable, but it's an extra consideration.

I would wonder about sending more the Twins way and doing Jeffers + Castro instead of Vazquez.  The money is about the same as the initial proposal.  And from an outsider's POV, the Twins' having Lee ready to go would seem to make Castro primarily an OF going forward?  That would seem to neuter a lot of his value, whereas the Cubs could desperately use some LHH at bats in their IF mix.  I think if you sent the Twins some plug and play live arms that should make up for a little more immediate talent going out the door on their end?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I’m also not sure what problems the Twins are solving with this deal aside from getting rid of Vaxquez’s dead weight.  They have oodles of bats lying around if they want to bet on less certain production.

It’s less creative than trading for Jax and starting him (which is truly an interesting idea), but if a 2025 SP is coming from Minnesota, it’s probably Lopez.  His money off the books will go further for MIN given their payroll constraints, and also potentially keep the cost to a sub-Alcantara level.

[CubinNY]

I don't like it at all. 

[Jason Ross]

I've been thinking the Cubs and the Twins could match up with a trade myself. And I think this is a creative solution for both teams. I'd be a little hesitant to think the Cubs would be willing to go the RP to SP conversion route, however, simply because I think Hoyer's job is riding on 2025. While Jax could be a gamble that paid off handsomely, I'd be worried about work-load-management in year-1 and there's always the question of "how will this go?" regardless of how well it is set up for on paper (which, I might add, Jax looks like he'd be a prime candidate). 

Someone should absolutely move Jax to the rotation and give it a try! I'm just not sure the Cubs are in a position to be that...risky. 

[squally1313]

Yeah I don't know anything about the pitching prospect the Cubs would be sending, but no interest in Vazquez so just make the bare bones of the trade Jax for Alcantara and see how it lines up from there. Get the innings concerns and obviously it's not a video game simulation, but if you're looking for guys like Horton and Brown (and Wicks) to contribute to the rotation at limited innings next year, almost makes more sense to load up on the 100 innings guys and swap them in and out. 

[CubinNY]

35 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Yeah I don't know anything about the pitching prospect the Cubs would be sending, but no interest in Vazquez so just make the bare bones of the trade Jax for Alcantara and see how it lines up from there. Get the innings concerns and obviously it's not a video game simulation, but if you're looking for guys like Horton and Brown (and Wicks) to contribute to the rotation at limited innings next year, almost makes more sense to load up on the 100 innings guys and swap them in and out. 

Alcantara for a 30 year old relief pitcher is a nonstarter.  

Edited October 9, 2024 by CubinNY

[squally1313]

5 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Alcantara for a 30 year old relief pitcher is a nonstarter.  

Three years of control and the whole point was to make him a 4-5 inning starter. I think you're probably right big picture, but I also think that we should be prepared to take a little less than equal value for the Alcantara/Caissie/Canario group if Bellinger opts back in and every other team realizes we've got 4 outfielders locked in for the next two years. 

[CubinNY]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Three years of control and the whole point was to make him a 4-5 inning starter. I think you're probably right big picture, but I also think that we should be prepared to take a little less than equal value for the Alcantara/Caissie/Canario group if Bellinger opts back in and every other team realizes we've got 4 outfielders locked in for the next two years. 

three years of control for a 30 year old rief pitcher means nothing. He's not a starter or he would be starting. 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

three years of control for a 30 year old rief pitcher means nothing. He's not a starter or he would be starting. 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/reynaldo-lopez/16400/stats?position=P

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

three years of control for a 30 year old rief pitcher means nothing. He's not a starter or he would be starting. 

That's spurious at best logic. Michael King entered 2024 with 30 more MLB innings than Griffin Jax did. Just five more career starts (19 to 14). In his year 29 season, he was a >3.00 ERA SP worth 3.9 fWAR, and a 3.50 xFIP. He spent most of his career prior to this season as a reliever. 

I think it's fair to point out the risk of taking a RP and just making him into a SP. It's fair to wonder about load management. But I don't think it's as simple as "well if he was a starter he'd be starting". Michael King proved that isn't so simple.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, 1908_Cubs said:

That's spurious at best logic. Michael King entered 2024 with 30 more MLB innings than Griffin Jax. Just five more career starts. In his year 29 season, he was a >3.00 ERA SP worth 3.9 fWAR, and a 3.50 xFIP. He spent most of his career prior to this season as a reliever. 

I think it's fair to point out the risk of taking a RP and just making him into a SP. It's fair to wonder about load management. But I don't think it's as simple as "well if he was a starter he'd be starting". Michael King proved that isn't so simple.

How many SP break in at age 30? 

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

How many SP break in at age 30? 

We've got 2 this year.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

How many SP break in at age 30? 

Not a ton. With that said, Michael King did so at 29 and Reynoldo Lopez did so at 33 this season, so it's not like we don't have very recent data points (and we can be pedantic and say "Michael King is 29 so he doesn't count" but I think we're better then being that pedantic). While it's fair to ask how many pitchers at that age make the transition, it's just as fair to ask how many SP at the age of 30 have a five-pitch-mix like Griffin Jax? Because the reality is the answer is "not very many". So there aren't a lot of pitchers who fit either category. 

Again...if you want to point out the risk I find that fair. Simplistic statements like "if he were a starter than he'd be a starter" ignores two very recent pitchers who did very much that. And were very good in 2024.

[Bertz]

Just spitballing what this could look like as a complete offseason

- Bellinger opts in, so offseason payroll is $50-55M

- Trade Alcantara, one of our pre-arb SPs, and one of our non-Hodge pre-arb RPs for Jax, Jeffers, and Castro.  Adds ~$13M in Cubs salary, bringing us down to ~$40M available

- Sign the best lefty masher 1B/DH you can to replace Wisdom.  Sounds like Ryan Mountcastle is gonna get DFA'd, which would be perfect, let's call it $5M for this guy

- Sign your favorite non QO SP, i.e. one of Eovaldi/Flaherty/Kikuchi.  All three probably get AAVs around $20M, with the difference being contract length.  Let's say Kikuchi just to lock in on a name.  There's $10-15M of payroll left

- Sign the best one year FA SP you can with the money left.  David Robertson at 1/$12M?

Lineup:

Happ/Swanson/Bellinger/Suzuki/Paredes/Busch/Jeffers/PCA/Hoerner

Bench:

Castro/Mountcastle/Amaya/TBD Iowa player of the week

Rotation:

Steele/Imanaga/Kikuchi/Taillon/Jax

Bullpen:

Robertson/Hodge/Pearson (Late Inning)

Thompson/Merryweather/Little/Wesneski (Middle Inning)

Assad (Long Relief)

This team, especially with how much talent is hanging out down at Iowa keeping warm, would absolutely whoop ass.  A bit light on pure dong power, but very well rounded and absurdly deep.

[gnardogg]

So I like the idea of acquiring Jax to try and convert him into a starter. As for Vasquez, he may be a defensive upgrade but he's still going to be a negative on offense. His offense has gotten worse year after year for 3 consecutive years now so I'd count on that trend continuing in 2025. 

I highly doubt the Twins would make Jeffers available but he would be fit on this Cubs team. They're lacking offensively an catcher is the 1 clear spot that can be upgraded. The free agent options aren't too appealing though so Hoyer is going to have to get creative. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 minutes ago, gnardogg said:

So I like the idea of acquiring Jax to try and convert him into a starter. As for Vasquez, he may be a defensive upgrade but he's still going to be a negative on offense. His offense has gotten worse year after year for 3 consecutive years now so I'd count on that trend continuing in 2025. 

I highly doubt the Twins would make Jeffers available but he would be fit on this Cubs team. They're lacking offensively an catcher is the 1 clear spot that can be upgraded. The free agent options aren't too appealing though so Hoyer is going to have to get creative. 

Welcome to North Side Baseball!

The Twins are beyond payroll-strapped. I think they'll listen to offers on literally anybody making more than the minimum. Jeffers won't come cheaply, though.

[Tryptamine]

While I know it's unlikely Alcantara stays with the Cubs long term, can we stop forcing him out the door in every trade? Giving up a top 50ish prospect for a reliever, who has an extremely minimal chance to convert to a 4 or 5 inning starter is just such a bad use of resources. If you're going to give up a top trade chip, go get an established starter even if it takes another significant piece. Taking on Vazquez's awfulness  as well makes this is a 100% no from me. 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

??

Jax has been a full time RP for 3 years now of the past 10 ballplaying years. He had a 5% BB rate in the minors facing 1200+ hitters as a SP. Last year his velo jumped from 95 to 97, on his way to a dominant MLB season. He features 5 different pitches, FGs found them all productive by run value. What makes his chances of doing a thing done many times “extremely minimal?” 

A thing done a couple times a year is not many times, especially when you're dangling prospect capital like that.

[squally1313]

I see the expectations are set at ‘we need to improve our already full major league offense with established major league impact talent and we also need to get optimal value for our near ready offensive prospects or else the trade will be bad, even if it obviously improves the major league roster’. Should be fine!

[Bertz]

Do we think this makes them more likely to take an "everything must go" stance towards anyone making money or do we think this makes them reluctant to make any waves?

[LBiittner]

Someone please refresh my memory. Once the Cubs franchise made public their intent to sell, how long did it take to finalize a deal?

[We Got The Whole 9]

In a similar vein my hope is that we eventually get Hodge in the rotation as well. He feels like the type of guy physically who would sustain velo deep into starts. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

In a similar vein my hope is that we eventually get Hodge in the rotation as well. He feels like the type of guy physically who would sustain velo deep into starts. 

[Rcal10]

Just curious. What would something like Jax, Lopez and Jeffers cost the Cubs in the way of prospects? Solved a few problems for the Cubs with Lopez being the only guy with any kind of salary attached. But what would the Cubs have to give up? In this scenario Jax could either be the late inning pen arm or they can transform him into a starting pitcher. I wouldn’t even pretend to know what it would cost the cubs.