Dusty Bad Managerial Moves Thread

[frostwyrm]

To me Dubois is right on track - he's out-hitting Holla by an excellent margin, and Holla's not doing that well, which is no surprise. Dubois is starting to get more starts. If he keeps hitting that'll increase and Holla will be where he should be, on the bench.

 

Dubois has to stop making Holla-as-defensive-replacement seem like a good idea tho. Dubois is whiffing more than I hoped, but he's producing otherwise - right on track....

 

So when do you think Dubois will get regular starts vs. RH pitchers? The fact that Macias pinch hit for Dubois vs. a RH reliever Saturday, on a day when he was 2-3, shows me that Dusty still has very little confidence in Dubois' ability to hit RH pitching. He will remain badly underused for a while yet. If Holla has a hot streak Dubois should ask to be traded.

 

I'm sure your joking. The 27 year old rookie making a demand like that is laughable... if he did I'd hope they'd demote him back to the minors.

 

Just go with me here: Dusty, as mananger of people, needs to support all his players, even when they suck. Especially with vets who have had success in the past, and are older, he has to baby them a bit. Hendry and Dusty always said HOlla was the starter, they can't just bench him at the first sign of struggling, can they? That would demoralize him and send a bad message to the team. It's a long season.

 

I think yeah, maybe in a month, if things progress like they are, Dubois will have proven to all, including Holla, that he should start regularly.

 

Yeah I was joking, sorta. But I do believe that all Holla has to do to bury Dubois for a very long time is get hot for a couple of weeks.

[ZZ Thorn]

To me Dubois is right on track - he's out-hitting Holla by an excellent margin, and Holla's not doing that well, which is no surprise. Dubois is starting to get more starts. If he keeps hitting that'll increase and Holla will be where he should be, on the bench.

 

Dubois has to stop making Holla-as-defensive-replacement seem like a good idea tho. Dubois is whiffing more than I hoped, but he's producing otherwise - right on track....

 

So when do you think Dubois will get regular starts vs. RH pitchers? The fact that Macias pinch hit for Dubois vs. a RH reliever Saturday, on a day when he was 2-3, shows me that Dusty still has very little confidence in Dubois' ability to hit RH pitching. He will remain badly underused for a while yet. If Holla has a hot streak Dubois should ask to be traded.

 

I'm sure your joking. The 27 year old rookie making a demand like that is laughable... if he did I'd hope they'd demote him back to the minors.

 

Just go with me here: Dusty, as mananger of people, needs to support all his players, even when they suck. Especially with vets who have had success in the past, and are older, he has to baby them a bit. Hendry and Dusty always said HOlla was the starter, they can't just bench him at the first sign of struggling, can they? That would demoralize him and send a bad message to the team. It's a long season.

 

I think yeah, maybe in a month, if things progress like they are, Dubois will have proven to all, including Holla, that he should start regularly.

 

Yeah I was joking, sorta. But I do believe that all Holla has to do to bury Dubois for a very long time is get hot for a couple of weeks.

 

Yeah, I agree, and I don't like it either, but this just how it goes. The rook Dubois, who has no high-class pedigree, has to earn it, he has to beat out the vet. That's just how it works. It makes for better competition anyway.

 

Look at it this way, I think it's the same for Dubois. A few more weeks of .600+ slugging and Holla hitting barely above .200 and Holla will be on the bench, where he's probably the most effective.

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Does anyone know what Dubois' stats were against RHP in the minors?

 

Lefty-righty splits are very difficult to come by, but I think it's fair to assume he did well against righties because there are so many more of them in the minors (and he wasn't sitting that much).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dubois hasn't been gaining any PT, there's just been an abnormal amount of LH starters lately. Dubois only has 4 AB's v. RH pitching this year. Compare that to 11 v. LH for Holla, and the fact that Macias and others have come in for Dubois when a RH was up.

[frostwyrm]

20 games into the season Dubois has logged a whopping 6 plate apearances more than Jose F. Macias has. I wonder if Hendry regrets resigning Hollandsworth.

[brinoch]

Truffle, you might very well be right about Schmidt. That's my perception without the necessary support. However, as to Baker pitching arms into the ground, there are many opinions supporting that supposition. In 2000, BP named Baker as the most abusive manager in baseball.

 

In 2003, the Cubs lead the league in PAP. Look at the numbers for Prior, Zambrano and Wood, it's sickening. I believe that the struggles Wood and Prior had in 2004 are largely in part to their overusage.

 

In 2004, the Cubs were 3rd in PAP. Take a look at Zambrano and Wood; Prior doesn't get the abuse because they really took care not to abuse him. How long before Zambrano's elbow goes boom? With this usage pattern, unless he's Livan Hernandez, it'll probably happen.

 

Were the 2004 problems with Wood and Prior related to the 2003 overuse? I believe so. Tim did an excellent study, which I know you've seen, about Wood coming off starts with more than 120 pitches and how poorly he does.

 

BP is really obnoxious. They act like they know everything and like what they say is gospel. In that article they basically say that Livan Hernandez will either get hurt or be ineffective the rest of his career because of the abuse he's taken from his managers. So where's the mea culpa from them, now that Hernandez has posted his best ERA+'s in back to back seasons? Of course, it's nowhere, because they'll never admit that they were wrong.

 

This is going to come off poorly, probably, but just like BP, you are acting as if you know everything about pitching injuries right now. I don't particularly have a problem with it, given that I act more or less the same way most of the time, too. But, you don't know everything (neither do I). Like it or not, pitchers get injured, and many of those injuries are directly related to overuse. Sometimes it comes from High School coaches or college coaches, or even the minors. But the act of pitching itself is unnatural and it hurts the arm. We also know that more strain is placed on the arm when pitching mechanics get out of whack. And the more tired a pitcher gets, the more likely his mechanics will falter. Therefore, when a pitcher gets tired, he becomes more susceptible to injury.

 

You may not like BP, and you may disagree with them, but that doesn't mean that PAP and pitching counts are something to pay attention to. Ignoring the effects would be foolish and short-sighted. And there will be exceptions. Some guys will never get injured no matter how many pitches are thrown. Others will get injured early and often.

 

Russ Ortiz is another guy Dusty has supposedly abused, yet his ERA+ the last two years is right in line with his career average. Jason Schmidt was destroyed so badly by all the abused that he's thrown only 206 innings per year the last three seasons, and finished in the top 4 of Cy Young voting each of the last two years.

 

But they never mention any of that. See, from where they're sitting, it's easy to bring up the guys who got ineffective or injured, and blame it on the manager for abuse. But what about guys who were not abused and still got hurt? Or the guys who were abused and still turned into outstanding pitcher? They don't prove their point, so they sweep those guys under the rug.

 

Coming off elbow surgery as he was, it's a miracle that Alou didn't destroy Schmidt's arm.

 

Here's a tip. Check out the numbers early in the careers of Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens. Maddux was throwing 230-265 innings a year between age 22 and age 25, and Clemens was 250-280 innings a year between age 23 and age 25. According to BP, these two guys should have been injured, ineffective and out of the league... but hey look what happened, they both pitched 20 years in the majors and turned into two of the best pitchers of their generation!

 

I'm not an idiot, Truffle. So please don't act like I don't know what I'm talking about -- I don't need your so-called tip to discuss or acknowledge that Maddux and Clemens are incredible pitchers who have been extremely durable. I grant that Maddux and Clemens have defied the "injury" odds, but look at all the guys who do have had TJS or rotator cuff injuries. Guys like Eric Gagne, AJ Burnett, Kerry Wood, John Leiber, Mariano Rivera, and Bill Wagner all had it. For every Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux, I can point out a John Smoltz or a David Wells who really hurt their arm. Look at all the guys in the minors who blow out their arms each and every year.

 

Certainly, there will be guys -- like Livan Hernandez (who I mentioned) -- who are just durable as heck and can pitch seemingly forever. But other guys, like AJ Burnett, quickly blow out their elbow when overused.

 

I've never much cared for PECOTA or BP's injury predictions myself, but at least they are looking to learn and protect pitchers -- in their own roundabout fashion. For someone who predicts the weather based on variable conditions and factors, Truffle, you seem resistant to making predictions or conclusions about pitching injuries based on other variable factors including -- but not limited to -- PAP.

[treebird]

Innings pitched isn't a particularly good way of judging pitcher abuse anyway. Maddux can throw a 90 pitch complete game from time to time, and Wood can go out there and throw 140 pitches in 7 innings.

[Laura]

I still can't get over the fact that Dusty's ridiculous machinations resulted in the benching of Dubois, Barrett and Hairston, three of our better hitters of late, in the middle of a slugfest. It just makes no sense.

 

They needed their rest because they'd be playing in the day game following the night game ...

 

Or maybe not. :-s

[BadKermit]

Dusty not pinch-hitting Dubois for Holla against Mercker. I don't understand why Dubois will get pinch-hit for Holla when there's a righty brought in, yet it doesn't work the other way around. Weak.

 

EDIT: Holla did single, so I'll give him credit where credit's due. I just don't understand Dusty's proclivity for only playing percentages when it works in favor of old players.

Edited April 27, 2005 by BadKermit

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Dusty not pinch-hitting Dubois for Holla against Mercker. I don't understand why Dubois will get pinch-hit for Holla when there's a righty brought in, yet it doesn't work the other way around. Weak.

 

Or Burnitz, who was 1-21 going into that AB against Mercker.

[TruffleShuffle]

Truffle, you might very well be right about Schmidt. That's my perception without the necessary support. However, as to Baker pitching arms into the ground, there are many opinions supporting that supposition. In 2000, BP named Baker as the most abusive manager in baseball.

 

In 2003, the Cubs lead the league in PAP. Look at the numbers for Prior, Zambrano and Wood, it's sickening. I believe that the struggles Wood and Prior had in 2004 are largely in part to their overusage.

 

In 2004, the Cubs were 3rd in PAP. Take a look at Zambrano and Wood; Prior doesn't get the abuse because they really took care not to abuse him. How long before Zambrano's elbow goes boom? With this usage pattern, unless he's Livan Hernandez, it'll probably happen.

 

Were the 2004 problems with Wood and Prior related to the 2003 overuse? I believe so. Tim did an excellent study, which I know you've seen, about Wood coming off starts with more than 120 pitches and how poorly he does.

 

BP is really obnoxious. They act like they know everything and like what they say is gospel. In that article they basically say that Livan Hernandez will either get hurt or be ineffective the rest of his career because of the abuse he's taken from his managers. So where's the mea culpa from them, now that Hernandez has posted his best ERA+'s in back to back seasons? Of course, it's nowhere, because they'll never admit that they were wrong.

 

This is going to come off poorly, probably, but just like BP, you are acting as if you know everything about pitching injuries right now. I don't particularly have a problem with it, given that I act more or less the same way most of the time, too. But, you don't know everything (neither do I). Like it or not, pitchers get injured, and many of those injuries are directly related to overuse. Sometimes it comes from High School coaches or college coaches, or even the minors. But the act of pitching itself is unnatural and it hurts the arm. We also know that more strain is placed on the arm when pitching mechanics get out of whack. And the more tired a pitcher gets, the more likely his mechanics will falter. Therefore, when a pitcher gets tired, he becomes more susceptible to injury.

 

You may not like BP, and you may disagree with them, but that doesn't mean that PAP and pitching counts are something to pay attention to. Ignoring the effects would be foolish and short-sighted. And there will be exceptions. Some guys will never get injured no matter how many pitches are thrown. Others will get injured early and often.

 

Russ Ortiz is another guy Dusty has supposedly abused, yet his ERA+ the last two years is right in line with his career average. Jason Schmidt was destroyed so badly by all the abused that he's thrown only 206 innings per year the last three seasons, and finished in the top 4 of Cy Young voting each of the last two years.

 

But they never mention any of that. See, from where they're sitting, it's easy to bring up the guys who got ineffective or injured, and blame it on the manager for abuse. But what about guys who were not abused and still got hurt? Or the guys who were abused and still turned into outstanding pitcher? They don't prove their point, so they sweep those guys under the rug.

 

Coming off elbow surgery as he was, it's a miracle that Alou didn't destroy Schmidt's arm.

 

Here's a tip. Check out the numbers early in the careers of Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens. Maddux was throwing 230-265 innings a year between age 22 and age 25, and Clemens was 250-280 innings a year between age 23 and age 25. According to BP, these two guys should have been injured, ineffective and out of the league... but hey look what happened, they both pitched 20 years in the majors and turned into two of the best pitchers of their generation!

 

I'm not an idiot, Truffle. So please don't act like I don't know what I'm talking about -- I don't need your so-called tip to discuss or acknowledge that Maddux and Clemens are incredible pitchers who have been extremely durable. I grant that Maddux and Clemens have defied the "injury" odds, but look at all the guys who do have had TJS or rotator cuff injuries. Guys like Eric Gagne, AJ Burnett, Kerry Wood, John Leiber, Mariano Rivera, and Bill Wagner all had it. For every Roger Clemens or Greg Maddux, I can point out a John Smoltz or a David Wells who really hurt their arm. Look at all the guys in the minors who blow out their arms each and every year.

 

Certainly, there will be guys -- like Livan Hernandez (who I mentioned) -- who are just durable as heck and can pitch seemingly forever. But other guys, like AJ Burnett, quickly blow out their elbow when overused.

 

I've never much cared for PECOTA or BP's injury predictions myself, but at least they are looking to learn and protect pitchers -- in their own roundabout fashion. For someone who predicts the weather based on variable conditions and factors, Truffle, you seem resistant to making predictions or conclusions about pitching injuries based on other variable factors including -- but not limited to -- PAP.

 

The condescesion was intended toward BP, not you. I'm fully aware that pitch counts should be watched; however, I've always been a believer that mechanics are much more important than pitch counts. Using proper drive with the legs, not throwing across the body, etc. A guy like Prior, I believe, has had injuries simply because he has something in his elbow that was bound to flare up. His mechanics are great and still he struggles with inflammation in his elbow.

 

I think the most important thing organizations can do is teach pitchers proper mechanics in the minors. Don't just let a guy go out throwing way across his body because it's working. He's going to blow out his arm sooner or later. Also, stop babying guys in the minors. They're on such strict pitch counts that when they get to the majors and are throwing well, and the big club is under such pressure to win, they end up being overextended. I'd like to see guy in the minors getting used to pitching more than they are now. I think the human body can be trained to handle higher amounts of exertion as long as you build up to it properly.

[brinoch]

The condescesion was intended toward BP, not you. I'm fully aware that pitch counts should be watched; however, I've always been a believer that mechanics are much more important than pitch counts. Using proper drive with the legs, not throwing across the body, etc. A guy like Prior, I believe, has had injuries simply because he has something in his elbow that was bound to flare up. His mechanics are great and still he struggles with inflammation in his elbow.

 

I think the most important thing organizations can do is teach pitchers proper mechanics in the minors. Don't just let a guy go out throwing way across his body because it's working. He's going to blow out his arm sooner or later. Also, stop babying guys in the minors. They're on such strict pitch counts that when they get to the majors and are throwing well, and the big club is under such pressure to win, they end up being overextended. I'd like to see guy in the minors getting used to pitching more than they are now. I think the human body can be trained to handle higher amounts of exertion as long as you build up to it properly.

 

Fair enough on BP; they are condescending. I can't argue with that at all.

 

I don't disagree with anything you said here, in fact, I've said similar thoughts. I don't think PAP is the end-all, be-all of pitching predictors; it's a tool. However, I would add one thought: mechanics *are* the most important factor in injuries, but what is often lost is that as the pitch count increases, the pitcher gets tired and his mechanics break-down -- and an injury is much more likely to occur. PAP is trying to model this mechanical breakdown and correlate it to the injury risk -- obviously not as well as we'd like, though.

 

What is really needed is a pitcher by pitcher evaluation of mechanics, endurance and breakdown risk. And that would be extremely difficult. Still, I would expect a pitching coach to do this for each pitcher on his team.

[CubinNY]

4/29/05

 

Taking Wuertz out with one out in the 8th was a bad move IMO. I know everything worked out. However, the last time Dusty did that the Cubs lost due to walks and bad pitches.

 

Not a major blunder, but still a bad move.

[CUBZ99]

4/29/05

 

Taking Wuertz out with one out in the 8th was a bad move IMO. I know everything worked out. However, the last time Dusty did that the Cubs lost due to walks and bad pitches.

 

Not a major blunder, but still a bad move.

 

I disagree with you. I thought Dusty was going to leave him in 2 innings and make him unavailable for a day or so.

 

In the past it seems that Dusty will use his hot closer until his arm falls off. A little restraint with Weurtz last night was probably a good thing.

[cubweiser03]

4/29/05

 

Taking Wuertz out with one out in the 8th was a bad move IMO. I know everything worked out. However, the last time Dusty did that the Cubs lost due to walks and bad pitches.

 

Not a major blunder, but still a bad move.

 

If he was going to take weurtz out why not use bartosh instead of ohman. id of rather seen him than ohman. is this a sign he thinks of using bartosh only on a full inning basis and not as a LOOGY?

[NCCubFan]

4/29/05In the past it seems that Dusty will use his hot closer until his arm falls off. A little restraint with Weurtz last night was probably a good thing.

In the case of Fox that's true literally, not just figuratively. :( Edited April 30, 2005 by NCCubFan

[SouthSideRyan]

4/29/05In the past it seems that Dusty will use his hot closer until his arm falls off. A little restraint with Weurtz last night was probably a good thing.

In the case of Fox that's true literally, not just figuratively. :(

 

Chad Fox only has 1 arm?

[NCCubFan]

Chad Fox only has 1 arm?

OK, not quite THAT literally. I meant until the pitcher was actually injured, as opposed to just tired.

[J.R.]

That ninth inning strategy was ridiculous.

[Cubinsf]

Showing up at the ball park....I'm shocked no one mentioned this yet.

[chopsx9]

Showing up at the ball park....I'm shocked no one mentioned this yet.

 

That's because it depends..if Dusty is in his Cubs uniform then yes it should be noted here. If he shows up in a hot dog vendors cap well.....lets just say I'll start going to church again.

[BadKermit]

Dusty argues and doesn't get ejected in the 6th, even though he should get himself ejected every game in the 1st.

[CoolHandLuke]

Dusty argues and doesn't get ejected in the 6th, even though he should get himself ejected every game in the 1st.

 

:lol:

[BadKermit]

Why oh why would you not walk Overbay?

[JC]

Why oh why would you not walk Overbay?

 

Brenly commented that he didn't understand why you walk him earlier in the game, but you don't later. I guess Damien made too big an impression.