General Offseason Priorities

[squally1313]

7 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Dont want Willson back, sorry not sorry.

Sure, we'll get more WAR out of the catching situation, but at the detriment of the entire pitching staff. Not worth it.

Do we know that's true?

Amaya:

Contreras:

[Tryptamine]

20 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Dont want Willson back, sorry not sorry.

Sure, we'll get more WAR out of the catching situation, but at the detriment of the entire pitching staff. Not worth it.

He wasn't much different than Danny Jansen this year defensively and people were drooling over him, same with Shea Langeliers. Plus remember, he's basically playing backup catcher. So he's catching what, 40-45ish games and spending the rest at DH.

Edited October 9, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Do we know that's true?

Amaya:

Contreras:

None of those stats measure how well a catcher works with the pitching staff, and by all accounts Contreras sucks at it. Every pitcher on the Cubs was a full run worse in ERA with Contreras vs the others. The Cardinals benched him a month into his tenure because he was calling pitches his pitcher didn't even throw.

There's many ways to get 2 WAR out of your catcher that wont effect the pitchers.

[Tryptamine]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

None of those stats measure how well a catcher works with the pitching staff, and by all accounts Contreras sucks at it. Every pitcher on the Cubs was a full run worse in ERA with Contreras vs the others. The Cardinals benched him a month into his tenure because he was calling pitches his pitcher didn't even throw.

There's many ways to get 2 WAR out of your catcher that wont effect the pitchers.

The Cubs need it on the offensive side of the ball as there aren't other places to fill in more offense, especially if Cody comes back. There's no catcher out there who is going to give you a big bat and plays positive defense that is actually going to be available. The closest thing is Victor Caratini whose 113 wRC+ was way outside of his career averages.  

[Cuzi]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

The Cubs need it on the offensive side of the ball as there aren't other places to fill in more offense, especially if Cody comes back. There's no catcher out there who is going to give you a big bat and plays positive defense that is actually going to be available. The closest thing is Victor Caratini whose 113 wRC+ was way outside of his career averages.  

So go get a bat that isn't directly involved with the pitching half of the equation. Simple.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

So go get a bat that isn't directly involved with the pitching half of the equation. Simple.

To play where? If Cody is back, Seiya is probably your DH. What big bat is going to sign here to be a bench guy getting maybe 400 ABs a year?

[Cuzi]

Get the bat first, worry about the details later. Any number of things can happen.

[squally1313]

20 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Every pitcher on the Cubs was a full run worse in ERA with Contreras vs the others.

The last year Contreras was in Chicago he had a catcher's ERA of 3.96 in 72 games, Gomes had a CERA of 3.66 in 69 games, and PJ Higgins had a CERA of 4.96 in 34 games, so going to go ahead and say this is wrong. 

Ultimately it's a dumb stat, and while I'll agree that he's historically been seen as struggling with some of the skills that aren't traditionally picked up by metrics, we don't really have any definitive ways of knowing what kind of impact it has.

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Get the bat first, worry about the details later. Any number of things can happen.

Who is that bat that's just going ignore that there is no room for him to currently get everyday ABs? Why would they sign here without some kind of guarantee when they could sign somewhere else with everyday ABs more or less guaranteed?

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Who is that bat that's just going ignore that there is no room for him to currently get everyday ABs? Why would they sign here without some kind of guarantee when they could sign somewhere else with everyday ABs more or less guaranteed?

Take your pick.

Bellinger isn't some brick wall to signing or trading for a better RF/DH. Bellinger can ride the pine for all I care. Just because he opts in doesn't mean the Cubs should just throw their hands up in the air and forget about every possible outfielder/DH that would make the team better.

Edited October 9, 2024 by Cuzi

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Take your pick.

Bellinger isn't someone brick wall to signing or trading for a better RF/DH. Bellinger can ride the pine for all I care. Just because he opts in doesn't mean the Cubs should just throw their hands up in the air and forget about every possible outfielder/DH that would make the team better.

I'm with you on this.

• Bellinger doesn't need to be guaranteed a daily spot just because of the amount of money he's getting paid. 
• Tauchman got 350 PAs last year. Wisdom got 174. Mastro 106, Madrigal 94. That's with Happ, Hoerner, Dansby, and Busch all playing 149+ games. Bump those all down to 140 games and that's another 220ish. That's 1000 PAs. Before injuries. We're fine.

[Irrelevant Dude]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

• Tauchman got 350 PAs last year. Wisdom got 174. Mastro 106, Madrigal 94. That's with Happ, Hoerner, Dansby, and Busch all playing 149+ games. Bump those all down to 140 games and that's another 220ish. That's 1000 PAs. Before injuries. We're fine.

I have an idea to get three of those numbers down to 0.  That frees up a lot of at bats!

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

To play where? If Cody is back, Seiya is probably your DH. What big bat is going to sign here to be a bench guy getting maybe 400 ABs a year?

Well if Cody is back Wilson wouldn’t be the DH. He would have to catch to play or one of the other regulars would have to sit. So your plan to have Amaya as the primary catcher with Willson as the DH wouldn’t work for the same reason you are saying the Cubs can’t add a bat elsewhere. 

[Bertz]

The Padres last winter traded their uber elite inner circle hall of fame caliber bat for metric ton of young pitching.  This year their best offensive player is more or less tied with Seiya Suzuki, and yet they're the current favorites to win the world series.

Get more good players, reduce playing time given to bad players.  It's as simple as that.  The matter of fact way it's talked about that the Cubs specifically need a "big bat" is not couched in much (any?) evidence.

[Rcal10]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I'm with you on this.

• Bellinger doesn't need to be guaranteed a daily spot just because of the amount of money he's getting paid. 
• Tauchman got 350 PAs last year. Wisdom got 174. Mastro 106, Madrigal 94. That's with Happ, Hoerner, Dansby, and Busch all playing 149+ games. Bump those all down to 140 games and that's another 220ish. That's 1000 PAs. Before injuries. We're fine.

I am also in on this idea. Even if everyone plays all year without an injury, if yiu have 9 guys for 8 positions all can play around 140 games. That works for me. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

So I have extreme doubts Jed would be into it, but with various rumors that the Cardinals are going to be getting rid of Willson, he does have a no trade clause through 2026, wouldn't he make a lot of sense here? Amaya would be your primary catcher, but Willson could give him a rest when need be and fill in at DH the rest of the time. The last 3 years he has posted 140, 127 and 134 wRC+s. I don't think there'd be much cost at all if the Cubs ate the remainder of his 4/72 contract and that 4th year comes with a 5M buyout so you're only on the line for 3/59.5 if he tanks after a couple years. 

C- Amaya

1B- Busch

2B- Nico

SS- Dansby

3B- Paredes

RF- Seiya

CF- PCA

LF- Happ

DH- Willson

That's a deep lineup even if it lacks that one super star bat. 

 

 

Willson brought back as a catcher doesn’t bother me on the field. I don’t have much issue with his catching and how pitchers pitch when he is behind the plate. And he would be a huge upgrade offensively. I think the bigger issue is team chemistry. I know a lot of people don’t consider this and think it is a myth. But I am pretty sure the Cubs were not thrilled with his actions in the clubhouse. I think he is less than an ideal teammate. That is my biggest concern with Willson. 

[Tryptamine]

14 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Well if Cody is back Wilson wouldn’t be the DH. He would have to catch to play or one of the other regulars would have to sit. So your plan to have Amaya as the primary catcher with Willson as the DH wouldn’t work for the same reason you are saying the Cubs can’t add a bat elsewhere. 

With Willson he's got 40-50 games he'd be at catcher. Then with injuries else where, let's say PCA got injured, Cody slides to CF, Seiya to RF and Willson into DH. If you bring in a DH/OF there is no 40-50 game buffer like there would be for catcher. You'd be solely dependent on injuries/rest to get them ABs in that scenario and most position players rest what, maybe 10 games a year compared to 40/50.  

[squally1313]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

With Willson he's got 40-50 games he'd be at catcher. Then with injuries else where, let's say PCA got injured, Cody slides to CF, Seiya to RF and Willson into DH. If you bring in a DH/OF there is no 40-50 game buffer like there would be for catcher. You'd be solely dependent on injuries/rest to get them ABs in that scenario and most position players rest what, maybe 10 games a year compared to 40/50.  

57 players this year appeared in 152 games of more, so less than 2 per team. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

With Willson he's got 40-50 games he'd be at catcher. Then with injuries else where, let's say PCA got injured, Cody slides to CF, Seiya to RF and Willson into DH. If you bring in a DH/OF there is no 40-50 game buffer like there would be for catcher. You'd be solely dependent on injuries/rest to get them ABs in that scenario and most position players rest what, maybe 10 games a year compared to 40/50.  

Like I said, I don’t think catching would be the issue. I think if he did come back he would catch 100+ games. I don’t think he hurts the pitchers anymore than Amaya does. Plus with him in the line up,and the other 8 guys, you do have a solid line up. But I am not sure the Cubs want him in the clubhouse. That is my concern. 

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Like I said, I don’t think catching would be the issue. I think if he did come back he would catch 100+ games. I don’t think he hurts the pitchers anymore than Amaya does. Plus with him in the line up,and the other 8 guys, you do have a solid line up. But I am not sure the Cubs want him in the clubhouse. That is my concern. 

I mean it's all a super unlikely hypothetical. If Jed really liked Willson he would have paid him to begin with, it was more just a mental exercise into how well he would fit the team in this imaginary scenario. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I mean it's all a super unlikely hypothetical. If Jed really liked Willson he would have paid him to begin with, it was more just a mental exercise into how well he would fit the team in this imaginary scenario. 

If your question  is would he fit in the line up, I would say without question he would. And he would be my catcher if the cubs got him. But I do think the Cubs are perfectly happy he isn’t on the team. I would say there is less than a 5% chance the Cubs would want him back. 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

57 players this year appeared in 152 games of more, so less than 2 per team. 

Adding in to what you just said, depending on how versatile the players are, if they had 9 guys for 8 positions everyone would be able to play 140-145 games a year. Which is fine. And that is assuming everyone is healthy all year, which will not happen.

[Backtobanks]

Outside of pitching, it's hard to discuss the roster until we find out what Bellinger is doing.

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Outside of pitching, it's hard to discuss the roster until we find out what Bellinger is doing.

I think if Bellinger opts out the Cubs will use that salary to add a FA bat. Hernandez, Santander, Bregman and to a lesser extent, Alonso. are a few examples. Or trade for a big bat like Tucker, Rooker or Vlad. I don’t think they will trade for that bat on the last year of his contract unless Jed is pretty certain he knows what the guy wants to extend and he is willing to give it to him. If Bellinger opts in I don’t see the Cubs doing much with the offense. At best, maybe they trade for an everyday player and play 9 guys in 8 positions. That improves the bench. 
To be clear, they should go after Soto. No reason not to, with or without Bellinger. But I am pretty sure they won’t be in on him. 

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

For the most part I have been against the idea of signing a higher priced pen arm. But think I would make an exception for Tanner Scott. He can not only be the closer if they need him to be, but he can also be the lefty pen, late inning arm if Hodge does prove to be a solid closer. He will cost a decent amount of money, but tbh, if Bellinger comes back I don’t see them spending big on the offense.

I'm a bit worried about his history of high BB/9.  No data to back this but it seems to me that one of the most volatile stats year to year for relievers (besides ERA of course) is often their BB rate.  I'd imagine its not easy to find your consistent release point throwing an inning at a time, and on different mounds.  Scott doesn't instill confidence that way, though he's trending better obviously.  I like his GB%.