General Offseason Priorities

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Paredes fWAR per 600 PA:

2022: 3.7

2023: 4.5

2024: 3.2

[Rob]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Paredes fWAR per 600 PA:

2022: 3.7

2023: 4.5

2024: 3.2

In fairness, that figure looks very different if you merely extrapolate his 2024 figures from his time with the Cubs rather than include his time with the Rays.

I don't like doing such a thing due to sample size issues. But there's cause for concern with Paredes, certainly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, Rob said:

In fairness, that figure looks very different if you merely extrapolate his 2024 figures from his time with the Cubs rather than include his time with the Rays.

I don't like doing such a thing due to sample size issues. But there's cause for concern with Paredes, certainly.

Paredes' slump pre-dated the trade though, and he finished the year much stronger.  We've talked about Wrigley's heavy pitcher-friendly turn and Paredes was no different.  He had a 159 wRC+ on the road *after* the trade, and even at home he was much improved in September(103 wRC+ v. 68 in August).  Plus he missed a few games with a nagging injury that may have influenced his performance in the 2nd half.  There's nothing beyond general anxiety/skepticism that indicates he'll continue to struggle like he did midseason(for both Rays and Cubs).

[Bertz]

Home road splits are broadly misleading.  Home road splits in a two month sample are barely more predictive than astrology or bone divination

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Joj said:

I've watched you type this several times.  Completely untrue.  Nobody has personal feelings about any of these guys.  Because nobody knows these guys personally.  It's obviously all about the performance.

Who said anything about personal feelings? To suggest someone didn’t like a guy even before he started playing with the Cubs doesn’t mean they didn’t like him personally. It means they didn’t particularly like his game. Didn’t think he would be a good fit for the team. I know for a fact chibear was not a fan of the deal. He questioned Paredes being able to be a good player for the team. That is all I am saying. And I am not even saying chibear is wrong. He has his reasons for not liking Paredes game(nothing personal). The 200 AB with the team were not what he was basing his opinion of Paredes game on. That was all I was saying when I said some people didn’t like him even before he played a game on the Cubs. 
I agree with you that we shouldn’t comment on a player personally. And I agree an opinion on a player should be strictly on performance. But it can be performance prior to being a Cub. 

[Bertz]

43 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Home road splits are broadly misleading.  Home road splits in a two month sample are barely more predictive than astrology or bone divination

Just doubling up here.  The Cubs played 12 of their first 17 games in August at home.  They then played 15 of 21 on the road.  Isaac had a 31 wRC+ in the first stretch, and a 127 in the second.

Especially given that August Wrigley does not tend to play as pitcher friendly as it does at other times of year, do we think Paredes was cold and then got hot in late August because he left Wrigley?  Or do we think he got hot and it just so happened to be when the team left Wrigley?  I just don't see any reason to assume it's the former without WAY more data.

[Joj]

22 hours ago, squally1313 said:

So 2.5 is more pessimistic than any recent performance measured in any reasonable way. 

His most recent performance was 2024 where Paredes put up 2 WAR.  So, no.  The differences between Fangraphs and BaseballRef's predictions are negligible (let's not talk about WRC+ and OPS+ lol) so when you see someone intentionally cherry picking between the two like some in the thread, warning bells do start ringing.  To say nothing about the obvious line between predictions and results

Either way, he's around 3.  ish.  Which is fine.  The problem with Paredes was never WAR.  Or any stat, really. It's just that the team needs a star and 3B is one of the few positions where it makes sense to upgrade.  That's it.  We can sit around and justify everyone's job on the roster using whatever versions of WAR and feel great about it.  Then they go out and win 81 games while management blames late slumps and injury. 🙄

[Transmogrified Tiger]

If the difference in FG and BR WAR were negligible, then either would make your point, but they don't.  Especially for hitters there's no reason to use BR.  More to the point, the list of 3B significantly and/or reliably better than Paredes is basically Jose Ramirez, Alex Bregman, and Rafael Devers(2 of which are 5+ years older than Paredes), so being worked up that they didn't get a nebulous 'star' instead of Paredes is getting worked up about an impossibility.

[Joj]

My point has been made, not worried about it.  So, what, now we don't know what a star is?  Maybe we should argue over the definition of, "star" for a few pages instead of seeing the forest for the trees.

Nobody's getting worked up.

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, Joj said:

My point has been made, not worried about it.  So, what, now we don't know what a star is?  Maybe we should argue over the definition of, "star" for a few pages instead of seeing the forest for the trees.

Nobody's getting worked up.

Well there's one guy there who you can argue is a star and he's available and he's above Paredes' level but he hasn't really been that guy for multiple seasons. So how else do you definitively upgrade that position? 

 

FTR I am for emptying the farm for Ramirez but I want to remain realistic. 

Edited October 17, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[squally1313]

25 minutes ago, Joj said:

His most recent performance was 2024 where Paredes put up 2 WAR.

Fangraphs WAR: 3.4

BR WAR: 2.7

[Joj]

If it's not FA, it's trade.  Are you talking Bregman?

[Joj]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Fangraphs WAR: 3.4

BR WAR: 2.7

*shrug*

[Bertz]

38 minutes ago, Joj said:

My point has been made, not worried about it.  So, what, now we don't know what a star is?  Maybe we should argue over the definition of, "star" for a few pages instead of seeing the forest for the trees.

Nobody's getting worked up.

The problem is there are no trees.  You want there to be trees, but who are these 3B who are A) better than Paredes and B) reasonably available?  This isn't MLB the Show you can't just force the Guardians to take 5 C+ prospects for Jose Ramirez.  Who is available as a 3B and 

Bregman is better than Paredes and will be available, but stumping for him while at the same time crapping on Paredes for coming from a ballpark that made his offense look better than it really is would be hilarious doublespeak.

[Joj]

11 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This isn't MLB the Show you can't just...

Yeah.  I'm a kid who doesn't know how baseball works.  That's always a cool trope to break out.  Nice tactic.  As a result I'm chuckling to myself, completely uninterested.

[Bertz]

"Go get a star!  We're the Cubs we shouldn't have to settle for 'pretty good' players"

"Okay which star do you have in mind?"

 

[We Got The Whole 9]

1 minute ago, Joj said:

Yeah.  I'm a kid who doesn't know how baseball works.  That's always a cool trope to break out.  Nice tactic.  As a result I'm chuckling to myself, completely uninterested.

Check back in and tell us who is better than Paredes and who is available. Right now the list is Bregman and he hasn't been Bregman for multiple years. So how do you upgrade the position? Jed did well to add a guy who can reasonably project to being much better than they've had since KB departed, at a position where there is a dearth of impact talent across the league. 

 

Granted he could have signed Chapman.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not ascribing these to anybody, but illustrating the fact that some complaints will exist regardless:

Waiting for Bregman(whose 2025 and beyond is probably not a large upgrade on Paredes remaining team control) would amplify complaints about Jed sitting on his hands and prolonging 'how long the rebuild is'

Signing Chapman would've amplify complaints about Jed not being willing to sign a long term deal and over-prioritizing defense.  Chapman's 2025+ should also not be expected to be a material upgrade on Paredes, and paying Chapman would've also come at the expense of other acquisitions, further diluting the impact.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Signing Chapman would've amplify complaints about Jed not being willing to sign a long term deal and over-prioritizing defense.  Chapman's 2025+ should also not be expected to be a material upgrade on Paredes, and paying Chapman would've also come at the expense of other acquisitions, further diluting the impact.

...having said that, signing Chapman instead of Bellinger would have been much better for 2024 and beyond 2024 purposes

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

...having said that, signing Chapman instead of Bellinger would have been much better for 2024 and beyond 2024 purposes

2024, yes.  Beyond 2024, let's say maybe.

[squally1313]

3 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

2024, yes.  Beyond 2024, let's say maybe.

Well the currently locked up version of Chapman, agreed. The one year deal Chapman would be a lot easier than where we're at now (though I'm more down on Bellinger than I probably should be). 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

9 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Well the currently locked up version of Chapman, agreed. The one year deal Chapman would be a lot easier than where we're at now (though I'm more down on Bellinger than I probably should be). 

Chapman signed a 3/54 deal originally though, his big extension ripped up the last 2 years.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Chapman signed a 3/54 deal originally though, his big extension ripped up the last 2 years.

Sure but he had player options, and if Belli at 2/60 is a 50/50 proposition after his 2024, Chapman at 2/36 after his would be pretty much a guarantee. So you'd be out Chapman (and presumably Paredes), but you have had about 4 more 'wins' in 2024 and also 6 months to decide if you wanted to come up with a(n ideally more palatable) extension, or you'd be sure you had $80m to spend this offseason.

[Bertz]

 

[Stratos]

On 10/16/2024 at 2:07 PM, squally1313 said:

I'm aware it's dumb to split hairs on WAR in October, but BaseballReference has him as either a 2.7 or a 2.8 WAR guy in 2024. fWAR, which I've always believed to be more predictive of future performance than bWAR, has him at 3.4 for 2024. So 2.5 is more pessimistic than any recent performance measured in any reasonable way. 

Since Paredes is out of the small foul lines of TB maybe he's more of a 3 WAR guy now.  I'd be very pleased with that next year from him.  Curious what the projections will give him for 2025.

If he has a good season I wonder what they do with Shaw.  They have Nico for 2 more seasons.  Maybe trade Nico next offseason.  Also curious what the EV and bat speed numbers are for Shaw.