General Offseason Priorities

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

I can easily see 2 SP additions, with the 2nd one being a 2 year deal for Shane Bieber who should be ready to pitch early to mid season. Then Assad becomes trade bait.

I could see 2 in this scenario. But I don’t see 2 to spear the season with Taillon as a 5.

[Tim]

I think there's a scenario where we sign one FA starting pitcher and also trade for one that's cost controlled.

We used eight different SP this year, nine if you count Kilian's start. That is excluding bullpen games and "starter" games. There's risk with every SP on the roster, maybe excluding Shota. I'd feel a whole lot better with Assad and his 4.97 xERA and 4.64 FIP as a sixth starter. Wicks was very meh even when he was healthy. Wesneski was better, but still average at best. Brown looked fantastic, but it's hard to count on his health.

I'd be okay with getting one SP this offseason, but I'd feel better with two. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, Tim said:

I think there's a scenario where we sign one FA starting pitcher and also trade for one that's cost controlled.

We used eight different SP this year, nine if you count Kilian's start. That is excluding bullpen games and "starter" games. There's risk with every SP on the roster, maybe excluding Shota. I'd feel a whole lot better with Assad and his 4.97 xERA and 4.64 FIP as a sixth starter. Wicks was very meh even when he was healthy. Wesneski was better, but still average at best. Brown looked fantastic, but it's hard to count on his health.

I'd be okay with getting one SP this offseason, but I'd feel better with two. 

Maybe one ahead of Taillon than another like Nick Martinez. A guy that could pitch in the pen or the rotation. 

[Cuzi]

9 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Maybe one ahead of Taillon than another like Nick Martinez. A guy that could pitch in the pen or the rotation. 

Assad being the guy to pitch in the pen or the rotation.

[JBears79]

Im guessing we get one of Fried or Burnes and then sign a reclamation guy like Bueler or Bieber. Assad should be a long relief bullpen guy anyway. Hes a valuable guy to have.

[Cuzi]

8 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Im guessing we get one of Fried or Burnes and then sign a reclamation guy like Bueler or Bieber. Assad should be a long relief bullpen guy anyway. Hes a valuable guy to have.

Doubt we sign either one. Both are going to get a QO, and in Fried's case he's no better than the top 2 in our rotation. Jed has shied away from QO players and if we are indeed going over the CBT, then the penalty is going to be more significant giving more reason for Jed to avoid them.

Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi probably has more appeal to Jed, or trading for a guy like Sandy Alcantara.

Edited October 2, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

57 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Doubt we sign either one. Both are going to get a QO, and in Fried's case he's no better than the top 2 in our rotation. Jed has shied away from QO players and if we are indeed going over the CBT, then the penalty is going to be more significant giving more reason for Jed to avoid them.

Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi probably has more appeal to Jed, or trading for a guy like Sandy Alcantara.

Maybe Snell if he opts out. I agree they most likely won’t go the QO route, but if they did, I would think it would be for Burnes over Fried. 

Edited October 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[Tim]

On 9/30/2024 at 9:43 AM, Tim said:

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto...

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary)
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Bellinger opts out
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Tanner Scott
• Extend Lopez

That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Alcantara
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Scott
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Faucher
• Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Rookies

That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

And now for my "horsefeathers it, I want another WS win and it isn't my money" offseason:

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Burnes (7/$245M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Jeff Hoffman (3/$48M)
• Extend Lopez
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Trade for Shea Langeliers and Mason Miller (Big package: Wesneski, Horton, Alcantara, Triantos, Pedro Ramirez)
• Bellinger opts out
• DFA: Wisdom, Alzolay, Madrigal, more.

That's a (semi?) do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto and Burnes are willing to defer. But Crochet, Langeliers and Miller are all cost controlled for years. Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background.

Hoffman is a little under the radar, but has been fantastic in Philly and the #1 free agent reliever in fWAR this year by a wide margin. 

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Langeliers/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching might be top 3 in baseball:

• Burnes
• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Mason Miller
• Hoffman
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Tyson Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Rookies

That's an easy 95-96 win team and could easily push 100, IMO. We'd definitely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as players hit their arbitration years and get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Shaw and Cam Smith to headline our prospects.

Also, I'd do my best to structure the contracts so that the opt-outs become attractive to Burns (in particular) and Soto. We want the first 2-3 years for Burnes and the first 4-5 years for Soto. Try to front load the deals during those years and make it attractive to them to hit the market again after those points.

[We Got The Whole 9]

16 minutes ago, Tim said:

And now for my "horsefeathers it, I want another WS win and it isn't my money" offseason:

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Burnes (7/$245M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Jeff Hoffman (3/$48M)
• Extend Lopez
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Trade for Shea Langeliers and Mason Miller (Big package: Wesneski, Horton, Alcantara, Triantos, Pedro Ramirez)
• Bellinger opts out
• DFA: Wisdom, Alzolay, Madrigal, more.

That's a (semi?) do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto and Burnes are willing to defer. But Crochet, Langeliers and Miller are all cost controlled for years. Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background.

Hoffman is a little under the radar, but has been fantastic in Philly and the #1 reliever in fWAR this year by a wide margin. 

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Langeliers/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching might be top 3 in baseball:

• Burnes
• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Mason Miller
• Hoffman
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Tyson Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Rookies

That's an easy 95-96 win team and could easily push 100, IMO. We'd definitely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as players hit their arbitration years and get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Shaw and Cam Smith to headline our prospects.

Also, I'd do my best to structure the contracts so that the opt-outs become attractive to Burns (in particular) and Soto. We want the first 2-3 years for Burnes and the first 4-5 years for Soto. Try to front load the deals during those years and make it attractive to them to hit the market again after those points.

I'd be all over this but I would prefer Flaherty over Burnes and think Jed will too

[Cuzi]

If I'm signing Soto to $600M, he's not getting a single opt out, much like every other player to sign a mega deal within the last 5 or so years.

[Bertz]

Bieber seems like a good and realistic option for adding a 2nd SP.

Otherwise?  Unless you win the Sasaki lottery or make a HUGE investment into the rotation (e.g. a guy like Nate Eovaldi is your "other guy"), it's a bad idea. 

Everyone is focused on the injury risk of the youths, and that's unfortunately a very real thing we need to worry about.  However that needs to be balanced against the performance risk of this other guy.  If Assad has a 5 ERA on Memorial Day next year, he probably gets a trip to Iowa, certainly at minimum he gets shifted to the bullpen.  If you sign Michael Wacha to a two year deal and he has a 5 ERA on Memorial Day...nothing happens for at least another month.  We can all scream "it's a sunk cost it shouldn't matter" until we're blue in the face, but you know how it works in practice with well compensated vets.

The Cubs next year have six optionable young SPs of consequence who are more or less major league ready.  Each has warts, and there's no law against multiple concurrent injuries, but I think it's much more likely that we get positive production out of the 5/6/7/8/+ rotation spots by rotating the youths than we gey by locking another spot down with a vet.  Add in the opportunity cost of that added salary and it's clear cut IMO.

[Irrelevant Dude]

5 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If I'm signing Soto to $600M, he's not getting a single opt out,

Yeah, I think with everything it takes to get one of those mega deals done, opt outs are a non-starter.

[Tim]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

If I'm signing Soto to $600M, he's not getting a single opt out, much like every other player to sign a mega deal within the last 5 or so years.

Screw that. I want them to opt out after 3-4 years. Get the best years of the contract and let someone else pay for the decline years? Yes, please. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

4 minutes ago, Tim said:

Screw that. I want them to opt out after 3-4 years. Get the best years of the contract and let someone else pay for the decline years? Yes, please. 

At that point he'd be 30 and still in his prime but over the next 10 years I doubt his OBP ever drops below ~390. He'll always be an incredibly valuable htter to have. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

Yeah, I think with everything it takes to get one of those mega deals done, opt outs are a non-starter.

I wouldn’t let an opt out option, especially any year after 4 years, be the line in the sand if everything else was agreed upon. No issue at all with giving Soto an opt out if that is what got the deal none. But not before 4 years. 

Edited October 2, 2024 by Rcal10

[Tim]

29 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

At that point he'd be 30 and still in his prime but over the next 10 years I doubt his OBP ever drops below ~390. He'll always be an incredibly valuable htter to have. 

30 is generally not considered in the prime of a position player's aging curve anymore.

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

Screw that. I want them to opt out after 3-4 years. Get the best years of the contract and let someone else pay for the decline years? Yes, please. 

The only reason Soto would opt out if he was outperforming the remaining $450M on the contract. If that is the case, then you have a bargain franchise player because he's going to cost MORE to re-sign. Teams have moved away from offering opt outs in these type of deals because it makes no sense from a team perspective.

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Tim said:

And now for my "horsefeathers it, I want another WS win and it isn't my money" offseason:

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Burnes (7/$245M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Sign Jeff Hoffman (3/$48M)
• Extend Lopez
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Trade for Shea Langeliers and Mason Miller (Big package: Wesneski, Horton, Alcantara, Triantos, Pedro Ramirez)
• Bellinger opts out
• DFA: Wisdom, Alzolay, Madrigal, more.

That's a (semi?) do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto and Burnes are willing to defer. But Crochet, Langeliers and Miller are all cost controlled for years. Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background.

Hoffman is a little under the radar, but has been fantastic in Philly and the #1 free agent reliever in fWAR this year by a wide margin. 

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Langeliers/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching might be top 3 in baseball:

• Burnes
• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Mason Miller
• Hoffman
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Tyson Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Rookies

That's an easy 95-96 win team and could easily push 100, IMO. We'd definitely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as players hit their arbitration years and get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Shaw and Cam Smith to headline our prospects.

Also, I'd do my best to structure the contracts so that the opt-outs become attractive to Burns (in particular) and Soto. We want the first 2-3 years for Burnes and the first 4-5 years for Soto. Try to front load the deals during those years and make it attractive to them to hit the market again after those points.

That reminds me of when I was a kid and we’d get the JCPenny Christmas catalog and I’d circle all the page numbers of toys I wanted like the $300 race track, the $150 walkie talkies etc. and I’d end with the cap guns and Lincoln logs. 

[Rcal10]

46 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

The only reason Soto would opt out if he was outperforming the remaining $450M on the contract. If that is the case, then you have a bargain franchise player because he's going to cost MORE to re-sign. Teams have moved away from offering opt outs in these type of deals because it makes no sense from a team perspective.

I agree that I would rather not have to offer one. But if that was the one thing holding up a deal and it didn’t come in play until after year 4 or 5, I would still hope the Cubs did it. I do understand they issue with it not being great for the team. But if he demands it an some team will give it, I hope it is the Cubs. And as you said, if he does then opt out that means the Cubs got 4-5 great years from him. Count me in on that. 

[chibears55]

8 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed. I definitely do not see 2 starters added. I can see one who would be counted on to be better than Taillon and push Taillon to 4th starter. To start the season I can see Assad as the 5. But they will also have other options if/when healthy. Wicks, Horton, Brown, Wesneski, etc…..

Maybe is Bellinger stays they will focus mainly on the pitching. Get a solid starter and add 2 “dependable” pen arms. Add someone to share time with Amaya or swing bigger for A’s or Angels catcher. Stengthen the bench, and go with the line up they used since Parades came around. I know fans don’t want to hear this, but since Paredes came around the offense was too 8 in baseball, even with playing half their games in Wrigley. I would think that very well could be the case next year with PCA having 400 AB under him now, Busch a full year in the majors, Amaya getting more acclimated to the majors and a full year of Parades. 

Yep, they need to upgrade from Taillon with a top 3 guy in the rotation, push Taillon to 4th and then have a ST battle with the healthy young arms for 5.

I'm gonna guess that they will stick with Hodge as the closer, would like to see them add a LH late innings guy .

 

All in all I really dont see too much going on this offseason for the Cubs and Hoyer, maybe they add an offensive catcher,  and a LH power bat for the bench/DH.

Bellinger opting out will determine if they go out and get a multi year everyday bat or a place holder until they feel Caissie or Alcantara ready to go.

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Yep, they need to upgrade from Taillon with a top 3 guy in the rotation, push Taillon to 4th and then have a ST battle with the healthy young arms for 5.

I'm gonna guess that they will stick with Hodge as the closer, would like to see them add a LH late innings guy .

 

All in all I really dont see too much going on this offseason for the Cubs and Hoyer, maybe they add an offensive catcher,  and a LH power bat for the bench/DH.

Bellinger opting out will determine if they go out and get a multi year everyday bat or a place holder until they feel Caissie or Alcantara ready to go.

Or they can trade Cassie and/or Alcantara in a big deal to get an established major leaguer. I honestly don’t understand all the penciling in of prospects that so many people do. I would much rather use them as assets for proven talent. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree that I would rather not have to offer one. But if that was the one thing holding up a deal and it didn’t come in play until after year 4 or 5

The thing is, the player will be very unlikely to get another deal in his post-prime years that beats the back half of his original megadeal, so the opt out at that stage doesn't really do anything for anyone.  I don't see anyone negotiating hard for an opt out after year 5.  If anything, they are going to want an opt out after 2 or 3, which would be a complete no go for me.

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The thing is, the player will be very unlikely to get another deal in his post-prime years that beats the back half of his original megadeal, so the opt out at that stage doesn't really do anything for anyone.  I don't see anyone negotiating hard for an opt out after year 5.  If anything, they are going to want an opt out after 2 or 3, which would be a complete no go for me.

2 is a no go. I agree with that. 3 would be a rough one. But after 4 I wouldn’t have a problem. At 4 Soto would be 30. If the Cubs front loaded a deal he might be able to get a better deal after 4 years. I am not saying I like the idea or it will even be needed. All I am saying is if that was the final issue and they put it in after 4 years, I wouldn’t want that to be the sticking point for them to  it make the deal. As I said, maybe a front load gets him out after 4. Maybe after 4 his salary drops to $35M a year for 8 more years. He might get better than that. I don’t really know how to structure a contract. Hell, most of us didn’t see the Otani contract coming. Maybe the Cubs can be creative while still giving Soto an option to opt out after 4. Maybe 4 years at $55M a year. 8 years at $35M a year and $100M deferred. Again, I don’t even know if they can do something like this. Not my job to figure this out😀. 

[Tim]

2 hours ago, Cuzi said:

The only reason Soto would opt out if he was outperforming the remaining $450M on the contract. If that is the case, then you have a bargain franchise player because he's going to cost MORE to re-sign. Teams have moved away from offering opt outs in these type of deals because it makes no sense from a team perspective.

I completely disagree. 

If 30 year old Soto has outperformed his contract to that date and wants to go beat the $450M remaining on his deal to play through his 30's...bye! Thanks for the awesome years of baseball!

[Tim]

1 hour ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The thing is, the player will be very unlikely to get another deal in his post-prime years that beats the back half of his original megadeal, so the opt out at that stage doesn't really do anything for anyone.  I don't see anyone negotiating hard for an opt out after year 5.  If anything, they are going to want an opt out after 2 or 3, which would be a complete no go for me.

I'd prefer the opt out to be after year 3 or 4 for Soto, but if he wanted one after year 2 I'd give it to him. You can always be the team to give him a new contract after that if you really want to keep him. In the mean time, you lock in two years of a top 5 hitter in baseball. There's really no downside to it other than planning the shape of the team in future years. You don't really want to be paying him for his age 34-38 seasons anyway. 

My biggest preference would be to sign him to a 4 year deal. Every additional year makes it a worse contract. So give him the opt out after year 4 and structure things to incent him to hit the market again at that point. If he doesn't opt out, front-loaded deals are also much easier to trade under the current CBA. Even if he's rocking things, I'd look to trade him in his early 30's before his performance drops off too much.