General Offseason Priorities

[Rcal10]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

An issue with our team is having so many great glove, mediocre bat players.  Nico, Swanson, PCA, then you have Amaya who isn't good at hitting or defense.  That's 4 guys in the lineup that don't hit much (PCA is a work in progress - jury is still out).

Their overall value via WAR is the same, the gloves on these 3 guys help our pitchers overachieve which is great.  But I also think some of our pitchers aren't quite as good as we think they are because of it since it lowers their ERAs.  xFIP/FIP can come in handy here to help evaluate.

I know some will say WAR is WAR and it doesn’t matter how you get there, But I agree they need a guy whose bat drives his WAR. That is why I questioned going after Bailey for catcher. His value is due to defense and pitch framing. And who knows how long pitch framing remains a thing. 

[Cuzi]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

I’m thinking if Cody opts in - Trade Nico + Caissie for TOR SP. Move Busch to 2nd, go after Vlad. Buy high leverage relievers. 

 

If Cody opts out- buy Fried and look to trade for a middle order bat. Get a lefter masher for the bench. Buy high leverage relief. 

Fried is going to get tagged with a QO. He's arguably no better than Steele or Imanaga. I dont see Fried being the guy Jed decides sign with a QO attached, especially when the penalty will be higher since he expects to be over the LT.

[Stratos]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I know some will say WAR is WAR and it doesn’t matter how you get there, But I agree they need a guy whose bat drives his WAR. That is why I questioned going after Bailey for catcher. His value is due to defense and pitch framing. And who knows how long pitch framing remains a thing. 

I actually don't think the way the WAR breaks down matters much.  At the end of the day the Cubs spending is inefficient.  We're not getting enough WAR per million spent.  The team needs more surplus or needs to spend more if they're ever going to be a 90+ win team.  Players like Baez, Bryant, Russell, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Rizzo etc gave us a ton of surplus and we're nowhere close to that yet.

We may have almost twice the payroll as the Brewers but if we spend 3-4x on players of the same WAR it's moot.

If players like Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Horton, Brown etc can perform well we can afford to trade more expensive guys like Happ, Bellinger, Nico or Swanson, etc and sign upgrades elsewhere while reloading our farm to reload the surplus years down the road.  Rinse and repeat.

The other option would be to trade some of those prospects mentioned for mlb-ready prospects at positions we need, like we did with Busch.  I don't think trading 3 top prospects for 1 very good mlb player with 3 years left until FA and entering arbitration years is going to be enough.  Maybe to get us into the playoffs but we should aim higher

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Fried is going to get tagged with a QO. He's arguably no better than Steele or Imanaga. I dont see Fried being the guy Jed decides sign with a QO attached, especially when the penalty will be higher since he expects to be over the LT.

I tend to agree. Especially when Flaherty and Snell(if he opts out) don’t have a QO attached. I am not certain Jed Dio’s into these waters with a SP, but I doubt it will be Fried. IMO if they did go big and were willing to sign a guy with a QO attached it would be Burnes. And that is doubtful as well. 

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

A point to consider: it was reported Jed inquired about O'hoppe at the deadline. Seems he might be interested in upgrading over Amaya? 

Hope so.   There isn't much out there in FA at catcher it looks like.  Will be a really tough position for Jed to figure out.  I'd be happy with a  league average catching combo that can handle pitchers.

[Cuzi]

At one point, before the Logan O'Hoppe rumors were reported, the Cubs were rumored to have discussed Shea Langeliers. Similar result with O'Hoppe, but Langeliers is probably the ideal slug+defense catcher. He doesn't get on base enough to be near the top of the order but he would fight for the best HR hitter on the team and his defense is built around being one of the best catchers in preventing stolen bases. I wanted the Cubs to go after Erceg at the deadline, but there's also another reliever in Oakland that is intriguing with the pitch mix the Cubs covet not named Mason Miller and that's Michel Otanez.

There's probably better uses for Alcantaras trade value, but it wouldn't suck to have Langelliers + Otanez.

O'Hoppe just doesn't seem like an option. The Cubs "aggressively" went after him and were rebuffed without so much as a discussion. The Angels just aren't interested in hearing offers, at least not with what the Cubs have to offer it seems.

Edited October 1, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I actually don't think the way the WAR breaks down matters much.  At the end of the day the Cubs spending is inefficient.  We're not getting enough WAR per million spent.  The team needs more surplus or needs to spend more if they're ever going to be a 90+ win team.  Players like Baez, Bryant, Russell, Hendricks, Schwarber, Contreras, Rizzo etc gave us a ton of surplus and we're nowhere close to that yet.

We may have almost twice the payroll as the Brewers but if we spend 3-4x on players of the same WAR it's moot.

If players like Caissie, Alcantara, Shaw, Horton, Brown etc can perform well we can afford to trade more expensive guys like Happ, Bellinger, Nico or Swanson, etc and sign upgrades elsewhere while reloading our farm to reload the surplus years down the road.  Rinse and repeat.

The other option would be to trade some of those prospects mentioned for mlb-ready prospects at positions we need, like we did with Busch.  I don't think trading 3 top prospects for 1 very good mlb player with 3 years left until FA and entering arbitration years is going to be enough.  Maybe to get us into the playoffs but we should aim higher

I highly doubt they are going to trade any of the guys you mentioned. Maybe Nico, but no way the others will be traded. I can see a couple of high end prospects traded for either a high end starting pitcher or a high end bat. Whichever they get they can get the other piece via free agency. If Bellinger doesn’t opt out they just play 9 guys in 8 positions. If he does opt out they have to think BIG. Has to be all in on Soto. For me, he would be the guy regardless of Bellinger , but we know that isn’t happening. In truth, even without Bellinger it is doubtful they go Soto. But he would be the guy. If not him you look to Vlad or Tucker. Maybe Rooker.  There are several avenues they can go with a pitcher. Too many to lists. Those two moves, plus pick up a catcher to share time with Amaya and add a pen arm or two and you have a 90+ win team. 

[LBiittner]

13 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

True. But when did Amaya start performing better? Around the deadline? He could change his mind if they believe what they saw from Amaya is real. Personally I would like to see, at the very least, a solid guy to split time with him.

It would be so Jeb, to believe Miguel's last 50 games are a secure indicator he's Miggy "the answer" Amaya.

I'm dumb, I don't know how he's rated defensively. Does he lean the direction of molina or simply adequate? 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

It would be so Jeb, to believe Miguel's last 50 games are a secure indicator he's Miggy "the answer" Amaya.

I'm dumb, I don't know how he's rated defensively. Does he lean the direction of molina or simply adequate? 

Amaya? I believe is is not rested very favorably. 

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Amaya? I believe is is not rested very favorably. 

Then why should we settle? I admit he's a handsome man wearing the equipment but not so much while performing behind the plate. I could accept him being on the team in a Christian bethancort role. Let's go and get a number 1 catcher. 

I like Cuzi's suggestion of Langelliers

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Then why should we settle? I admit he's a handsome man wearing the equipment but not so much while performing behind the plate. I could accept him being on the team in a Christian bethancort role. Let's go and get a number 1 catcher. 

I like Cuzi's suggestion of Langelliers

I do as well. I am just not sure the cubs have enough resources to get a catcher via trade and then either a big bat or front end starting pitcher via trade. How much if the farm do you want to use? 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I highly doubt they are going to trade any of the guys you mentioned. Maybe Nico, but no way the others will be traded. I can see a couple of high end prospects traded for either a high end starting pitcher or a high end bat. Whichever they get they can get the other piece via free agency. If Bellinger doesn’t opt out they just play 9 guys in 8 positions. If he does opt out they have to think BIG. Has to be all in on Soto. For me, he would be the guy regardless of Bellinger , but we know that isn’t happening. In truth, even without Bellinger it is doubtful they go Soto. But he would be the guy. If not him you look to Vlad or Tucker. Maybe Rooker.  There are several avenues they can go with a pitcher. Too many to lists. Those two moves, plus pick up a catcher to share time with Amaya and add a pen arm or two and you have a 90+ win team. 

Well the point is the Cubs have lots of assets and a ton of options.  As long as they keep one of Nico/Dansby to play SS the Cubs could literally trade any of our vets and have a suitable prospect replacement ready within the next year if not today.  I doubt any vet gets traded this winter but within the next year we know either some vets or prospects will likely get traded.

For me Canario, Triantos, and Ballesteros (if he can't catch) seem like the odd men out but also may not bring a ton in trade, they could be saved for a deadline trade or as Iowa depth.

I'd be very hesitant to trade Alcantara, he has the power/speed combo, he could be a beast.  A poor man's Elly De La Cruz or Oneil Cruz.  I like Caissie too.  Seems like he'll whiff a ton but he has the sweet swing & approach to make adjustments and work all fields, unlike a Morel or Canario.

[Cuzi]

10 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I'd be very hesitant to trade Alcantara, he has the power/speed combo, he could be a beast.

He could also not be worth horsefeathers to the Cubs, before you are forced to trade him or stunt his development be sitting him on the bench for a year to avoid DFAing him.

You have to give to get and I would much rather have something to help the MLB team over Alcantara who plays CF when we have three 3+ WAR outfielders.

Edited October 1, 2024 by Cuzi

[Rcal10]

After listening to Jed’s press conference I absolutely expect more of the same. Build a team projected to win 85 and hope for a few career years to get the ram ro 90+. 

[gflore34]

6 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

After listening to Jed’s press conference I absolutely expect more of the same. Build a team projected to win 85 and hope for a few career years to get the ram ro 90+. 

Exactly, don't think it'll work, though, to some extent it worked for the Brewers and Guardians.

[Cuzi]

Cool, then hopefully he is fired.

[Rcal10]

19 minutes ago, gflore34 said:

Exactly, don't think it'll work, though, to some extent it worked for the Brewers and Guardians.

Padres had Profar totally outperform anything he ever did before, too. But the real issue isn’t whether it does work or not. That isn’t how the Cubs should build a team. Even if it works occasionally, there is no reason they shouldn’t put a team on the field Expected to win the division. 

Edited October 1, 2024 by Rcal10

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Cool, then hopefully he is fired.

I doubt that happens. My guess is his vision is the same as Tom’s. 

[squally1313]

It's a press conference on October 1st, guys. Not sure what anyone was really expecting. "I will not be outbid for Juan Soto or Kyle Tucker, who are both currently still playing in the playoffs for other teams."

[morrisjon]

31 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

After listening to Jed’s press conference I absolutely expect more of the same. Build a team projected to win 85 and hope for a few career years to get the ram ro 90+. 

To be fair, that's kind of what he has to say publicly. Behind the scenes you can try to sign Soto or make a big trade. However when the reality is that Soto is likely is resign with the Yankees and the that big trade won't come to fruition, you can't exactly make promises that will just end up disappointing the fanbase.

[Bertz]

I didn't watch, just read Brett Taylor's recap, but the only notable things to me were the implication Cody's probably going to opt out and the fact that they're largely in the TT camp of macro factors making the offense look worse and the pitching look better than topline numbers would indicate.

[JBears79]

On 9/30/2024 at 7:43 AM, Tim said:

I was bored, so I modified this one to include Soto...

Adding to my previous post to put actual names with things...

• Sign Soto (12/$600M, some of the money deferred for cap purposes, variety of opt-outs)
• Trade for Sandy Alcantara + Calvin Faucher (2 top 100-ish propects + decent add on - say Alcantara, Rojas, McGeary)
• Trade for Garret Crochet (2 top 50-ish prospects + decent add on - say Caissie, Mo, Will Sanders)
• Bellinger opts out
• Sign Carson Kelly
• Sign Tanner Scott
• Extend Lopez

That's a do-able offseason. 2 trades, 1 extension, & three FA. That's probably over the cap, but how much so depends on how much money Soto is willing to defer. He doesn't have the endorsement money that Shohei brings in. But the SP adds are both cost controlled, Lopez shouldn't cost a ton with his background. Kelly should be moderately priced. Scott is probably the other expensive add - I'd be fine with Robertson instead, but if we're pushing the chips in it makes sense to invest in a big-time reliever to add to the pen.

On offense, we'd have the following all reasonably projected at 3+ WAR:

• Soto
• Happ
• Swanson
• Hoerner
• Seiya
• PCA
• Paredes

The other positions would project to 2+ WAR:

• Busch
• Kelly/Amaya

Bench would be catcher + Shaw + Tauchman + whomever. To start the year, Shaw gets a Zobrist role to insert into the lineup depending on injuries, resting starters, matchups, performance, etc. That is probably a 28+ WAR team and top 5 in baseball.

Starting pitching would be damn good and probably top 5 in baseball:

• Steele
• Crochet
• Shota
• Alcantara
• Taillon
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski / Horton

Relievers would be deep and strong at the top:

• Scott
• Hodge
• Lopez
• Faucher
• Miller
• Brown / Assad / Wicks / Wesneski
• Merryweather
• Pearson
• Little
• Roberts
• Almonte
• Keegan
• Neely
• Palencia
• Adbert
• Rookies

That's an easy 93 win team and could push 100, IMO. We'd likely need to start dumping salary after the first couple years as some players get more expensive, but we'll also get relief as some of the current players start exiting their deals. We'd still have Horton, Shaw, Cam Smith to headline our prospects. Maybe there's another big-boy path available, but I think this one covers the needs without being too crazy.

Yes please.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

24 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

It's a press conference on October 1st, guys. Not sure what anyone was really expecting. "I will not be outbid for Juan Soto or Kyle Tucker, who are both currently still playing in the playoffs for other teams."

I knew he wouldn’t—and couldn’t—be that specific, but it was more of the same intelligent spending crap repackaged in a different message. He doesn’t have to say they are going hard after the top free agents, but he could say they are in a good position as an organization, they have set themselves up nicely for the future, and now it is time to leverage those strengths to build a roster that can be among the best in baseball. 
 

But instead he talked about only three teams being projected to win 90 games, that playoff teams all had players perform better than expected, and that internal improvement will be key. Blah, blah, blah. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, TarzanJoeWallis said:

 he could say they are in a good position as an organization, they have set themselves up nicely for the future, and now it is time to leverage those strengths to build a roster that can be among the best in baseball.

He said this almost verbatim.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

He said this almost verbatim.

So you feel his message was different this year than in the past? To me it was the same telegraphing that they have to be intelligent and get lucky like all the good teams are.