Jed: Cubs expected to be over the luxury tax THIS year

[UMFan83]

It's being discussed in yesterday's game thread but felt its worth its own topic (gimme those brownie points @Brock Beauchamp)

 

 

It sounds like it was on accident?  Meaning probably not over by much?  How does this effect next year?  Why did he single out Bellinger?  So much to unpack here....

[Irrelevant Dude]

I took it as a "See, we're willing to go over the tax" when in reality they are probably over by like $1M, which is negligible and dumb.

[jersey cubs fan]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I took it as a "See, we're willing to go over the tax" when in reality they are probably over by like $1M, which is negligible and dumb.

Chicago Cubs baseball:

negligible and dumb

[UMFan83]

12 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I took it as a "See, we're willing to go over the tax" when in reality they are probably over by like $1M, which is negligible and dumb.

Actually that tracks. “See? We can go over!  But now we have to slash payroll to go back under and avoid repeater penalties. But wait til you see the teenagers we get this time.”

[Backtobanks]

The real question is: Shouldn't the President of Baseball Operations know what the payroll is before spending the whole season trying to stay under the luxury tax?  

[chibears55]

50 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

It's being discussed in yesterday's game thread but felt its worth its own topic (gimme those brownie points @Brock Beauchamp)

 

 

Why did he single out Bellinger?  So much to unpack here....

LT is 238 Mil, cubs are at 233 mil

I saw this on fangraph that they can buy Cody out for 5 mil which will put them at 238. So, makes me wonder if that's his plan 🤷‍♂️

[Rcal10]

Just now, chibears55 said:

LT is 238 Mil, cubs are at 233 mil

I saw this on fangraph that they can buy Cody out for 5 mil which will put them at 238. So, makes me wonder if that's his plan 🤷‍♂️

Can they buy him out or is it his option to either come back another year or they buy him out for $5M? Maybe that is what Jed is talking about. If Cody opts out the Cubs pay him $5M and then go over. If he stays they don’t go over. I just don’t know. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

49 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I took it as a "See, we're willing to go over the tax" when in reality they are probably over by like $1M, which is negligible and dumb.

Yeah i had said that a while back, they will pay the smallest possible overage. 

Also really odd he came out and announced they will be in the tax, he clearly wanted fans to know this. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

13 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Also really odd he came out and announced they will be in the tax, he clearly wanted fans to know this. 

Absolutely.  His comments fell really flat for me, like he was looking for credit for the team spending a few extra dollars.

[Cuzi]

Those 2 year deals on Mancini and Barnhart really paying dividends. Brilliant!

Edited August 16, 2024 by Cuzi

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

Can they buy him out or is it his option to either come back another year or they buy him out for $5M? Maybe that is what Jed is talking about. If Cody opts out the Cubs pay him $5M and then go over. If he stays they don’t go over. I just dont know

I don't know...

[Irrelevant Dude]

The buyout comes into play if he opts out.  But it's only $2.5M this year.  $5M if he opts out after next year.

[chibears55]

They have a bunch of Arb and pre arb to deal with for 2025 thru 2027 but damn, LT will be at 257, 277, and 297 those 3 seasons and their payroll sits at 126, 47, and 48. 

There is zero reasons not to go out and sign or trade for elite and very good players at a cost with basically a clean payroll to spread that money over the years.

They have a couple solid prospects near ready to come up and good young players on roster still under team control, there zero reasons why Hoyer shouldn't be going hard after Soto and or Burnes .

[chibears55]

10 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The buyout comes into play if he opts out.  But it's only $2.5M this year.  $5M if he opts out after next year.

It's reversed 5 mil this year, 2.5 next year

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

It's reversed 5 mil this year, 2.5 next year

That would make sense, but spotrac has it reversed.

[UMFan83]

I'd be interested in knowing how far were projected to be over the tax and whether it would make sense to put some guys on waivers to see if they are claimed.

I just don't want the Cubs to turn into cheapasses and blame this one season they went a little over the threshold in a lost season as the reason why they won't spend.

Edited August 16, 2024 by UMFan83

[ToolDRT]

Yeah, I don’t like that they’re out there announcing this. Seems like this is to show that they’re willing to go over while also making setting it up so they don’t exceed it again next year. 
 

Also, just want to take a moment to share (again) my amazement at how expensive this mediocre roster is. Jed is really terrible at the job Theo got for him. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

 

[NorthsideAvenger]

Much ado about nothing. Hoyer will continue to dumpster dive and the Cubs will likely be in this same spot next season.

[Bertz]

Like TT said, none of this matters if Tom isn't willing to have years where he blows past the cap.  If Tom's absolute ceiling for payroll is something like $15-20M past the cap, the difference between a 20% penalty and a 50% penalty is like $5M.  And Jed hates signing QO free agents as is so that's not a major consideration either.

There was a poison pill in the last CBA where 3rd time offenders lost out on revenue (it was something tied to the Oakland A's revenue sharing), but to this point as far as we know it's just those tax rates nowadays.

[Eeyore]

16 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Actually that tracks. “See? We can go over!  But now we have to slash payroll to go back under and avoid repeater penalties. But wait til you see the teenagers we get this time.”

I'm good with a complete house cleaning. They're not winning with these clowns. Changing catchers isn't going to do it 

[squally1313]

Baby, bathwater, etc.

[chibears55]

Who would they wave that would actually get claimed though ?

Hendricks, Smyly,  Neris? I doubt it but those are the only ones I think might get claimed and have enough salary left to make a difference in payroll 

 

[chibears55]

Just noticed they can subtract another 26 mil off that payroll just by not picking up options on Bote, Smyly,  and Neris and that'll get them approximately 157 mil under the TT going into the offseason.

[Dfan25]

This clown isn’t even good enough to know when he should stay under the LT . Going to be sweet when they stay under next season . Sad thing is his extension is probably at Ricketts desk already .