Cubs Won't Buy At Deadline (Duh?), Still Deciding How/If To Trade Complicated Contract Situations

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I've said this before, but I'd absolutely love to steal a 3B from Baltimore. Gunnar isn't moving off SS so they have Westburg, Holliday and Mayo(iffy defense) who can play 3B. The issue is, outside of Steele, I don't think there's any piece they could move to land them.

A combo of taillon/leiter?

[Outshined_One]

19 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Third base may end up be the defining choice for how long Jed's tenure ends up lasting.  Because of how the rest of the roster is shaped(established vets in the corners + Busch at 1B, glove first options at 2B, SS, & probably CF), it is the obvious place to make a big upgrade if you can at all.  But the position just doesn't have that league-wide, you're either paying through the nose for a Paredes and hoping he continues, paying all the dollars and a pick for Bregman for him to go back to juiced-ball/trashcan levels of production, or you're doing something more creative.  I don't have an objection to creativity, but it means by definition you probably can't count on that spot being a big bat, which means the margins in the rest of the offense are that much narrower.

I'd find it oddly fitting if Jed got the axe after the 2025 season, followed by Cam Smith winning NLROY in 2026.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

A combo of taillon/leiter?

Doesn't even get them to pick up the phone

[Rob]

3 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

A combo of taillon/leiter?

If you're hoping to get a Jackson Holliday type from the Orioles, you're talking about throwing in Taillon and Leiter on top of Steele.

On their own, Taillon and Leiter aren't worth all that much.

[Rob]

Just now, TomtheBombadil said:

Meh, best Value likely available and not everyone needs to be an ultra mega duper star. The best player available is Robert Jr. so go get Robert Jr. 

It could be worse…I was saying Nicky Lopez is a good idea like into the season. Walls is kind of the Platonic ideal or w/e the phrase is of a backup and spot starter pretty much anywhere: switch hitter, elite defender, gets the ball in the air, can hit some HRs, and won’t kill you with approach 

 

 

In 325 games at the major league level, Taylor Walls has been worth 0.4 fWAR while batting .187/.289/.296. And the batted ball data doesn't suggest he's been particularly unlucky.

We have that player. His name is Miles Mastrobouni. Except Mastrobouni has decent batted ball data. And of course our guy isn't a MAGA chud.

Hard pass on Walls.

[LBiittner]

11 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

Doesn't even get them to pick up the phone

Ouch, I'm out-a-touch.

[sneakypower]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Walls is kind of the Platonic ideal or w/e the phrase is of a backup and spot starter pretty much anywhere: switch hitter, elite defender, gets the ball in the air, can hit some HRs, and won’t kill you with approach

a lot of meaningless words to try to paper over career OPS in the .500s

he's dog horsefeathers

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He’s put up 6 WAR for like a $1.50 and shown an in demand skillset

The MAGA stuff is a bigger deal but that crap’s all over. There’s no baseball player or sports team who represents anything good politically nor is it their job. Don’t hold your breath for an athlete with better than terrible politics. Particularly since all day every day across the board the rhetoric towards them is they are overpaidz and not producing enough 

Walls has 6 bWAR based on being a +42 defender in less than 2 seasons worth of innings, which is unfortunately not substantiated by UZR(roughly +5) or OAA(-10) and why he has cumulative 0.4 fWAR.  He has over 1000 PA of 73 wRC+ at the MLB level, how does that fit the current roster at all

[Rob]

8 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

He’s put up 6 WAR for like a $1.50 and shown an in demand skillset

The MAGA stuff is a bigger deal but that crap’s all over. There’s no baseball player or sports team who represents anything good politically nor is it their job. Don’t hold your breath for an athlete with better than terrible politics. Particularly since all day every day across the board the rhetoric towards them is they are overpaidz and not producing enough. The way we “choose” to do sports, talk about sports, work, exist in general is a breeding ground for ultra conservative nonsense 

Lots of em have stupid beliefs. When I'm watching sports, I want plausible deniability at the bare minimum. Seeing that dipshittery he pulled on the field the other night, he clearly cannot provide minimum competency in any regard.

And TT already pointed this out, but you're putting a lot of stock in a single aberrant defensive statistic.

[Tim]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

If anything I still think BJ Murray’s going to take 3B pretty soon and trying to force a move there is double siding (2024 is over but we must fix 2024) anyway 

Murray's going to get that OPS over .700 any day now...

[Rob]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

- He’s one of the ten or so best defenders in the league right now, instantly upgrades the Cubs infield defense. Seeing as the Cubs are terrible at 3B defense  just getting better at that can be a big jump

As TT has pointed out, there's quite a discrepancy about his defensive acumen. DRS loves the guy. UZR sees him as about average. OAA thinks he's one of the worst defenders in the league.

Personally, I tend to average out defensive statistics given how much they can differ. So he's probably about average, while being a zero with the bat. Mastro's already got that covered, including better AAA numbers.

There's no point to Walls.

If you want a premium defender with a notoriously bad bat, just grab Jose Iglesias this offseason. But I've gotta warn you, his career OPS is actually above .700, instead of Walls .500 something.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

- He’s one of the ten or so best defenders in the league right now, instantly upgrades the Cubs infield defense. Seeing as the Cubs are terrible at 3B defense  just getting better at that can be a big jump 

- He’s hit .267/.395/.485 at AAA including 9 HRs in just 253 PAs. This isn’t an incompetent or punchless offensive player, numbers come and go when playtime

- He hit .263/.352/.425 v LHP last year, making him a natural Mastro partner who adds more flexibility and flyballs to the bench in 2025+

Mostly he’s cheaper and/or younger and infinitely more temporary/low commit than Bregman and Paredes. Either guy is a RH Bellinger where the fans are looking to get out at the first opp. If anything I still think BJ Murray’s going to take 3B pretty soon and trying to force a move there is double siding (2024 is over but we must fix 2024) anyway 

Of course the MAGA stuff is kind of the trump card here. If there’s one way we’re willing to fight evil its to drop the hammer on employees with dumb opinions, that’ll show the system lol 

74 players have 400 innings at 3B since the start of 2022(Walls has 412).  Walls is tied for 27th in OAA and 18th in UZR.  The idea that he's one of the ten best defenders in the league is an extreme stretch.

His AAA numbers are not very distinguished given the current gap between AAA and MLB, it's very similar to Mastrobuoni who is not playing at even a platoon level currently.  He had 466 PA in Tampa in 2022 and 349 last year, this is not someone who is getting one at bat a week that's suppressing his numbers.  Fangraphs put a 30 on his game power, there isn't a hidden vein of slug that makes him a viable 3B.

His LHP numbers last year are in 90 PA, and in a slightly larger sample the previous year had a 67 wRC+ against them.

Lastly, Walls is 28, and about to be arb eligible, which means especially for a fringe roster guy he is not particularly young or cheap.  Just wait for Madrigal to be healthy, we can do the same squinting in a slightly different offensive package.

[KCCub]

Man, Jed’s really did a number on us with who we are discussing for possible 3b options. Ouch 

[Tryptamine]

32 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Once you get comfortable with the reality: fans are always going to whine about production and relentlessly recite the same stuff with no discernible standard beyond “more and for less, please, or we take the next half decade,” stuff like that get’s pretty easy to block out? No one’s career goal is to be the most popular prospect right? Particularly when just being a teenager is usually enough to “win” 

Edit: This is all to say that Murray stumbled out of the gate, for several weeks even, but has been fine since 

Since June 1st he has a .227/.340/.371 line good for an 88 wRC+. He's had a good July, that's about all. 

[Tryptamine]

Ok let's give him the cherry picked date of 5/12, he's been basically a league average hitter at AAA in his age 24 season. I fail to see the reason for enthusiasm.  

[Tim]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

5/12 is no less cherry picked than 6/1 or 3/1 or 7/1 or who cares. Being a league average hitter with an improved defensive profile in AAA is a pretty good place for a what…15th round pick(?)…to be. Enthusiasm hasn’t exactly paid off for Cubs prospects either. Michael Busch is thriving without it, and he *did* put up the video game numbers. Da numbas is fluid, we know the ball’s different from the one he saw last year for instance, and 24 is neither here nor there pretty average if he pulls off a callup

You know what isn't cherry picked? 79 wRC+, .676 OPS.

Also, we're not judging him against other 15th round picks. By that metric, he's doing great. The context of the comparison was you saying that he's next in line (or however it was phrased) for 3B in the majors. In that context, he's not even close to ready.

[Rob]

[Bertz]

Re: 3B....Luis Rengifo maybe?  He's more of a supersub who's played primary 3B because of Anthony Rendon's issues.  He's a switch hitter who absolutely mauls lefties (157 wRC+ going back to the start of '22) and is adequate against righties (94 wRC+).  He's under control through the end of next year and as an Angel is surely available.

It's a low ceiling "3B equivalent to Mike Tauchman" type move that would obviously necessitate going bigger elsewhere, but if like me you don't like any of the bigger options and want Shaw or Smith to ultimately own 3B he's probably about the perfect type of stopgap.

[KCCub]

13 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Re: 3B....Luis Rengifo maybe?  He's more of a supersub who's played primary 3B because of Anthony Rendon's issues.  He's a switch hitter who absolutely mauls lefties (157 wRC+ going back to the start of '22) and is adequate against righties (94 wRC+).  He's under control through the end of next year and as an Angel is surely available.

It's a low ceiling "3B equivalent to Mike Tauchman" type move that would obviously necessitate going bigger elsewhere, but if like me you don't like any of the bigger options and want Shaw or Smith to ultimately own 3B he's probably about the perfect type of stopgap.

I actually think he's going to have a pretty hot market. I think teams that usually don't make the "big splash" at the deadline are going to be after him. Sox for sure and teams like Royals, Pirates, etc seem to fit their type of move. That's not even considering the Yankees and Braves could use him. 

[Bertz]

9 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I actually think he's going to have a pretty hot market. I think teams that usually don't make the "big splash" at the deadline are going to be after him. Sox for sure and teams like Royals, Pirates, etc seem to fit their type of move. That's not even considering the Yankees and Braves could use him. 

I could totally see it.  But even premium prices on a second division starter is still not anything worth stressing over too much. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

He's probably too important to the Mariners to consider moving, but Dylan Moore would be a pretty snug roster fit in that vein.

[LBiittner]

Just curiously odd thought: why do GMs wait til almost the last possible moment to finalize a trade at deadline time? 

Do they crave the rush? Or are they just trying to tortoise their way thru their job?

Is it really do diligence or just a charade of "hard working"

Because after reading people's thoughts here, virtually most in the mlb world know equitable value of each player thru numerically computations on a 20-80 scale. Also values of war/bwar/fwar should clear up most questions. 

 

[Rob]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Just curiously odd thought: why do GMs wait til almost the last possible moment to finalize a trade at deadline time? 

Do they crave the rush? Or are they just trying to tortoise their way thru their job?

Is it really do diligence or just a charade of "hard working"

Because after reading people's thoughts here, virtually most in the mlb world know equitable value of each player thru numerically computations on a 20-80 scale. Also values of war/bwar/fwar should clear up most questions. 

 

Leverage is part of it.

The other part is that with this many potential playoff teams, everybody is seemingly "in it." When there were 4 playoff teams, you pretty much knew whether you were a contender or not in mid May. But now? You're gonna wait til the last second.

[LBiittner]

15 minutes ago, Rob said:

Leverage is part of it.

The other part is that with this many potential playoff teams, everybody is seemingly "in it." When there were 4 playoff teams, you pretty much knew whether you were a contender or not in mid May. But now? You're gonna wait til the last second.

I understand because of wildcard situations to wait it out and all but to me it's a little nutsy.

For example, if jed had pulled off a deal 2 weeks ago for the right player (like a rumored cat her) we might be in prime situation today?

It's kinda queer to think for over 50-60 years mlb trade deadline was June 15th? Can you imagine June 15th, whether to go all in or hold?

[Bertz]

17 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Just curiously odd thought: why do GMs wait til almost the last possible moment to finalize a trade at deadline time? 

Do they crave the rush? Or are they just trying to tortoise their way thru their job?

Is it really do diligence or just a charade of "hard working"

Because after reading people's thoughts here, virtually most in the mlb world know equitable value of each player thru numerically computations on a 20-80 scale. Also values of war/bwar/fwar should clear up most questions. 

 

Baseball is a game of thin margins, and most execs got to where they are by piling up a bunch of 52/48 type victories. 

The unfortunate side effect is they are, by and large, terrified of doing anything that isn't a slam dunk win.  They NEED deadlines to act like adults and consummate deals.  That's why more and more all the offseason activity happens around key dates as well (winter meetings, holiday break, nontender deadline, spring training reporting).