Cubs (Steele) vs Giants (TBD): 6/24/24, 8:45pm

[Geographyhater8888]

It’s a comedy act at this point. The outcomes are so predictable. Inability to pile on runs, wasting a gem from our starting pitching, and coughing up 2+ run leads in the 9th. All the ingredients for a jersey mike sub sandwich.

[Geographyhater8888]

4 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

I stopped watching and came back to see they blew it, Steele is never going to get a win. And the bullpen still sucks ass. Counsell needs his head checked if he keeps throwing Brewer out there. 

Our kryptonite headed my into the off season was a lack of reliable pen arms. What does Jed do to adress it? Sign Neris and manager who can better manage a pen with no reliable arms.

 The position players were shaky enough as is but no one could’ve foreseen this offense being so bad with RISP regardless of the $ pissed away on Dodgers and Yankees role players.

[Jason Ross]

4 hours ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

The only one I possibly disagree with is Ballasteros.  The Cubs catching situation is dire right now.  IF Ballasteros can handle catching a Major League staff, and that's a big "if", then I'm not opposed to taking a chance and giving him a shot.

He can't. He can barely handle a Double-A staff as is. And he's in Iowa now. It doesn't mean he *cant* ever be an MLB catcher, but part of the downside of his bat being so advanced is that he will not develop as much defensively...which he needs. Catching is a position where guys usually take a longer dev time unless they're just naturally good at it. Consider this; Adley Rustchman came up at age 24 (and is now 26). He caught all through college and the minors. He had been catching four more years than Mo and was more advanced defensively to start. And Mo is in Triple-A at 20. By aggressively promoting his bat, he's likely going to be pushed off the position due to a lack of defensive dev time. Offensively he belongs in Iowa but defensively he's probably suited for like South Bend more so than anything. That's no shade, but his D just lags behind. Catching is a really hard position and he lacks experience. 

He's probably following a Kyle Schwarber career path, who, also, had a bat that out paced him defensively. That doesn't mean they have similar approaches, just that Schwarber hit too well to really develop at catcher, too. I don't think Kyle was ever going to get there, but because he hit so well he never got a chance to marinate defensively. So while there's a chance Ballesteros can help the Cubs, it's almost assuredly, as of now, only at DH.

[cl smooth]

Woof

[LBiittner]

BEAR DOWN CHICAGO BEARS

[UMFan83]

6 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I hate defending Jed right now but Merryweather, Alzolay, and Almonte will each miss multiple months. 

Not sure why you’d defend him. Alzolay was a major part of why we blew so many games early,  Almonte was a tough loss a few weeks ago but also was only just starting to prove to be a decent reliever and had his struggles. Merryweather is the only one that has been significantly damaging to the Cubs for a long period of time. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Not sure why you’d defend him. Alzolay was a major part of why we blew so many games early,  Almonte was a tough loss a few weeks ago but also was only just starting to prove to be a decent reliever and had his struggles. Merryweather is the only one that has been significantly damaging to the Cubs for a long period of time. 

And Leiter, Alzolay, Merryweather got decimated from overuse by Ross (the worst manager in cubs recent history) because Hoyer refused to add more arms at the deadline 

[Andy]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

And Leiter, Alzolay, Merryweather got decimated from overuse by Ross (the worst manager in cubs recent history) because Hoyer refused to add more arms at the deadline 

I have no particular opinion on managerial skill but every complaint we had about Ross (mainly an inexplicable devotion to crappy performing veterans and bad bullpen decisions) has either stagnated or gotten worse under Counsell. I don't blame Counsell for having a terrible bullpen but the Cubs gave him a gazillion dollars in large part because of his supposed wizardry on the matter so that's how he's getting judged.

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

And Leiter, Alzolay, Merryweather got decimated from overuse by Ross (the worst manager in cubs recent history) because Hoyer refused to add more arms at the deadline 

I think people deserve blame, but this is the wrong take. Julien Merryweather has a back injury. He threw 72 IP last year. He's eclipsed 70 IP in a season three times in the past. He's 31 years old. Not only is that not clearly overuse, his injury doesn't really stem from over use. Adbert Alzolay picked up 64 IP last year. He threw double that in 2021. In the majors. He was 28. Mark Lieter Jr, threw less innings last year than he did in 2022. He's 32. He threw the same amount as Alzolay. None of these pitchers were abused last year. Merryweather logged the most innings of any of them and there were 16 relievers who logged more innings. Alzolay threw the sixtieth most used reliever last year. Leiter is in the same area.  

David Ross wasn't a super-great manager. He didn't abuse those three. I don't disagree, the Cubs should have gotten another arm or two. But these three...they got hurt because pitchers get hurt. It sucks all three are hurt right now.

[WhyCantWeWin]

1 minute ago, Andy said:

I have no particular opinion on managerial skill but every complaint we had about Ross (mainly an inexplicable devotion to crappy performing veterans and bad bullpen decisions) has either stagnated or gotten worse under Counsell. I don't blame Counsell for having a terrible bullpen but the Cubs gave him a gazillion dollars in large part because of his supposed wizardry on the matter so that's how he's getting judged.

Yeah its become clear that Hoyer overvalued the effect a manager has on the game or overvalued Counsell as manager. Im not on Counsells ass because i think the roster is inherently flawed and was banking on a second straight year of having top level performances from a roster of flawed players. Like Bellingers resurgence, Swansons insane defensively year, Suzuki turning it around for half a season etc.

[WhyCantWeWin]

5 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I think people deserve blame, but this is the wrong take. Julien Merryweather has a back injury. He threw 72 IP last year. He's eclipsed 70 IP in a season three times in the past. He's 31 years old. Not only is that not clearly overuse, his injury doesn't really stem from over use. Adbert Alzolay picked up 64 IP last year. He threw double that in 2021. In the majors. He was 28. Mark Lieter Jr, threw less innings last year than he did in 2022. He's 32. He threw the same amount as Alzolay. None of these pitchers were abused last year. Merryweather logged the most innings of any of them and there were 16 relievers who logged more innings. Alzolay threw the sixtieth most used reliever last year. Leiter is in the same area.  

David Ross wasn't a super-great manager. He didn't abuse those three. I don't disagree, the Cubs should have gotten another arm or two. But these three...they got hurt because pitchers get hurt. It sucks all three are hurt right now.

The issue i think wasnt their overall usage but the increased usage late in the season, i know you are going to look at the splits and mention that their innings were largely consistent throughout the season but you have to remember that all 3 spent some time on the IL close to the end of the year. They were on pace to shatter their inning highs from previous months. 

[CubinNY]

8 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Yeah its become clear that Hoyer overvalued the effect a manager has on the game or overvalued Counsell as manager. Im not on Counsells ass because i think the roster is inherently flawed and was banking on a second straight year of having top level performances from a roster of flawed players. Like Bellingers resurgence, Swansons insane defensively year, Suzuki turning it around for half a season etc.

I don't think that is true. I think Hoyer saw a manager in his dugout who was not capable of getting the team to where he wanted it to go and one came available. 

Hoyer's fatal flaw is picking guys like Happ, Hoerner, and Swanson to build a team around. They are good players, but not difference-makers. If you add up the money spent on them it will get you to a pretty high payroll, but a mediocre team. Also, and I'm not absolving anyone here, the injuries have hurt quite a bit, especially in the pen. 

That said, Hoyer needs to go, but he's a mini-Tommy Boy. 

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

The issue i think wasnt their overall usage but the increased usage late in the season, i know you are going to look at the splits and mention that their innings were largely consistent throughout the season but you have to remember that all 3 spent some time on the IL close to the end of the year. They were on pace to shatter their inning highs from previous months. 

Alzolay threw 14 IP in April and 13 in May. He threw 14 in August. How was he "on pace" to shatter his innings when he was placed on the IL on September 10th? He was literally equally his innings highs the month before. Merryweather threw 11.2 in April. 12 in May, while throwing 14 in August and 12 in September. How is this "on pace" to shatter his high? August was his highest usage month and he threw...two more innings. And no, they all didn't "spend time on the IL" only one of them did...Julian Merryweather never  was placed on the IL in 2023. His last IL stint before the back injury was in 2022 with Toronto. Mark Leiter JR has not been on the IL since 2018. On the topic of Leiter Jr...he threw 10.2 IP in April, 12 in May, 11 in June, 11 in July, 12 in August and 7 in September (because he completely lost the splitter). That's not shattering anything. 

You're inventing a narrative. Not only did two of the pitchers you claim went on the IL never were placed on the IL, there's no major uptick in usage later in the season. We can blame Hoyer for imperfect roster construction. We can say David Ross wasn't  great manager. We cannot find anything to support the narrative that these three were abused by David Ross and that the reason they're sitting on the IL today is because Ross overly relied on them at the end of the season. 

[Outshined_One]

The $1b question in my mind right now is, how much of an overhaul does this roster need to be in playoff contention in 2025?

In other words, does this team just need to suck it up and right the ship with a retool in the offseason, or should it get blown to smithereens with every non-SP on the table at the deadline?

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

The $1b question in my mind right now is, how much of an overhaul does this roster need to be in playoff contention in 2025?

In other words, does this team just need to suck it up and right the ship with a retool in the offseason, or should it get blown to smithereens with every non-SP on the table at the deadline?

A full-blow-up is both unnecessary, and likely, a bad idea. 

It's unnecessary because as frustrating as this year is, this isn't a team devoid of talent like, say, the Rockies or the White Sox, almost, across the board. They have players you'd consider to be average to above average starters at LF, RF, CF, 2b, 1b, SS. They have a rotation that borders on really good when heathy. They have the foundation of a bullpen (one, that, is quite injured right now) - I know it doesn't feel that way, but a healthy Alzolay, Almonte, Leiter and Merryweather is a pretty good 7th-8th inning group (they're all on the IL). They've got plenty of youth; this isn't an old team (the current average age of Cubs' hitters is 28 and pitchers is 29). They have lots of prospects who are likely 2025 ETA (if not sooner). 

They also don't have a ton I think that is going to be tradeable at the deadline. Happ and Suzuki are NTC. Bellinger is either a rental or a $30m AAV guy - neither brings back a lot (depending on how you view his option situation). The players you might look to move have had bad years, like Hoerner (if you thought Shaw needed to be a 2b) or Morel (if you wanted to swap him for something else). They're not going to trade Busch, Swanson isn't movable, no one wants Amaya/Nido/Hendricks...So there's almost nothing to blow up if you wanted to for any sort of return, outside of like, nuclear and selling Steele. 

The Cubs aren't that far away. The holes they have are pretty glaring; the team has no distinct bullpen-shutdown option. Catcher is...ugh...it's a bad day when Tomas Nido is an upgrade. They need a real middle-order-bat - they need someone in the lineup who isn't just "good" but transcends good. We can debate how they can acquire them, or what they're going to do there...but I think the shopping list for the Cubs right now is small, and targeted. They have money (in theory) and prospects (in theory) to trade to get them (we can also debate if the team has the right people in charge to make the moves needed, but that's another topic, IMO). This was a team who probably could have won 84 or 85 games this year had injuries been less brutal, had players not collectively all been bad during the injury time and the like. It's not a brutal roster. It's a flawed roster - one that can't sustain down turns and negative variance in any meaningful way without the stars. But I think it's quite salvageable. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

16 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

IIRC they added more playoff spots than teams so Rebuild 3.0 might be the worst idea of all 

Also trying to do a Rebuild 3.0 *without* selling Steele asap is utterly insane 

I agree they should absolutely move Steele. i'm not sure Jed has the balls to push that button, though. He'll cite chemistry and morale and get a pick when the time comes. 

[CubinNY]

One thing I didn't expect with this team is the sloppy defense. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I agree they should absolutely move Steele. i'm not sure Jed has the balls to push that button, though. He'll cite chemistry and morale and get a pick when the time comes. 

It depends on who they can get for Steele. If its some low A baller with pedigree and potential, that's a hard sell. 

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I agree they should absolutely move Steele. i'm not sure Jed has the balls to push that button, though. He'll cite chemistry and morale and get a pick when the time comes. 

Steele hasn't even hit arb yet. He's 28 (though very soon to be 29). He's a career 3.26 ERA, has posted three seasons in a row (so far) with his highest xFIP of 3.58, so based on his GB's these all feel in line. For all of the "well can he repeat 2023..." all of his numbers are basically spot on them right now. He's a *very* good pitcher. He's on the right side of 30 and the right amount of control. He's (knock on wood) had no major arm related issues for a while (the IL stint was a leg muscle pull).

Selling Steele is a nuclear option. I see no reason for the Cubs to hit that button right now. The Cubs season has been frustrating but why would the Cubs pull the rip cord on a 28/29 year old arm who's as good as Steele and controlled for three+ more years (he would hit FA in 2028)? The Cubs have no reason to not be a good team in that span. Maybe we don't give him an lengthy extension, but trading him now feels...like a real bad idea.

[We Got The Whole 9]

3 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Steele hasn't even hit arb yet. He's 28 (though very soon to be 29). He's a career 3.26 ERA, has posted three seasons in a row (so far) with his highest xFIP of 3.58. For all of the "well can he repeat 2023..." all of his numbers are basically spot on them right now. He's a *very* good pitcher. He's on the right side of 30 and the right amount of control. 

Selling Steele is a nuclear option. I see no reason for the Cubs to hit that button right now. The Cubs season has been frustrating but why would the Cubs pull the rip cord on a 28/29 year old arm who's as good as Steele and controlled for three more years? The Cubs have no reason to not be a good team in that span. Maybe we don't give him an lengthy extension, but trading him now feels...like a real bad idea.

I didn't say this season. Steele is awesome and has 3 more years, I get that. Jed's gonna get another year to try to get the team on track. If we still suck next year I would definitely think the new guy would move him before the 2026 season. Jed could unload him next deadline but I doubt he does.

Edited June 25, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[17 Seconds]

12 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I agree they should absolutely move Steele. i'm not sure Jed has the balls to push that button, though. He'll cite chemistry and morale and get a pick when the time comes. 

this organization really did a number on you if you want to trade steele

[Outshined_One]

I hate the idea of it, but I'm admittedly curious what Steele would fetch on the trade market. If the only way this team gets a superstar bat is through the farm, then trading Steele might actually be worth it, especially considering the Cubs seem set up to churn out quality pitchers for the next 2-3 seasons. 

[Jason Ross]

18 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

I didn't say this season. Steele is awesome and has 3 more years, I get that. Jed's gonna get another year to try to get the team on track. If we still suck next year I would definitely think the new guy would move him before the 2026 season. Jed could unload him next deadline but I doubt he does.

Why are we assuming the Cubs will suck next year? I'd argue they don't suck now. This *year* sucks, but the Cubs have faced a pretty bad set of circumstances as well. Part of that is on them (poor performances), part of that is injury you cannot control, and part of that is bad luck that the slumps (and all teams have them) hit at the same time the team was ravaged by injury. You can't control much of that. That's not excusing it away, but understanding that if those things happened differently, we likely have a different outcome...it's why I don't think the Cubs suck, but that the year does. It's an inverse of 2023. 

Even so, he'd be able to more than "unload" Steele. Steele has until 2028. Barring thr Cubs packing it in and doing horsefeathers-all this offseason, it's probably a good bet the team enters 2025 with similar upside to 2024, if not a bit better (in the case the team adds the kind of talent we'd hope. Or at least one guy like that). I still wouldn't call Hoyer a wimp or not having the balls next season if Steele is still really good and the Cubs are mediocre if he kept him; he'd still be a Cub for 2026, 2027 and 2028! His clock is quite far away from hitting midnight and the Cubs shouldn't be super jazzed about trading away a 4 win, controlled arm like that. 

I think a lot of this is coming from frustration...which I get. Last night felt like a haymaker for 2024. Maybe that's a rally point and the Cubs get it together at the lowest point, but I think they're on borrowed time right now. I just think they're still set up to be fine in 2025 and talk of dealing Steele feels...extreme.

[Irrelevant Dude]

11 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

If we’re talking selling 2024 then you sell Steele now, not a year+ from now. What’s a 29 YO TJ’d SP about to hit arb got for a rebuilding franchise who definitely for sure can’t take one of 400 playoff spots anytime soon? He’s almost 30, no longer min salaried, prbly can’t be optioned…clock’s ticking on getting max Value 

Wait, why do minor league options come into play here for a top of rotation starter?

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Why are we assuming the Cubs will suck next year? I'd argue they don't suck now. This *year* sucks, but the Cubs have faced a pretty bad set of circumstances as well. Part of that is on them (poor performances), part of that is injury you cannot control, and part of that is bad luck that the slumps (and all teams have them) hit at the same time the team was ravaged by injury. You can't control much of that. That's not excusing it away, but understanding that if those things happened differently, we likely have a different outcome...it's why I don't think the Cubs suck, but that the year does. It's an inverse of 2023. 

Even so, he'd be able to more than "unload" Steele. Steele has until 2028. Barring thr Cubs packing it in and doing horsefeathers-all this offseason, it's probably a good bet the team enters 2025 with similar upside to 2024, if not a bit better (in the case the team adds the kind of talent we'd hope. Or at least one guy like that). I still wouldn't call Hoyer a wimp or not having the balls next season if Steele is still really good and the Cubs are mediocre if he kept him; he'd still be a Cub for 2026, 2027 and 2028! His clock is quite far away from hitting midnight and the Cubs shouldn't be super jazzed about trading away a 4 win, controlled arm like that. 

Quite simply, I've lost a lot of faith in the team's ability to adapt to the changing run-scoring environment. Critical players have either plateaued or declined. We're hamstrung with contracts, missing contributors at key positions of which there aren't many interesting FA to target and I'm not particularly confident in Jed's ability to identify the right guy in trade, even if he appears to have done very well acquiring Busch to this point. I don't feel that good about 2025. This season has really soured me, maybe it's stupid IDK.

Why do you quote "unload" as if it implies something negative?

We don't have Steele for 2028. We have him for 3 arb years after this one. He'll be 29 next year and we will see how his health is holding up but on the injury nexus he'll be entering the red. We have to wait and see what Jed does this offseason but there is a lot of work that needs to be done and not a lot of wiggle room, and he's gonna need to get creative. I see a real possibility that the team flounders similarly next year and at that point you might have to just submit that they're not gonna get it done and make some moves, hopefully in the mold of the Burnes/Ortiz deal where you get immediate imapctful help.