Is Jed really safe?

[Tryptamine]

Ballesteros is definitely a potential super star bat. He's 20 years old and had the 3rd highest OPS(.867) in the AA Southern League good for a 155 wRC+. The people in front of him were a guy who is going to be 24 before the season ends and mega prospect Carson Williams.  

[731.4life]

1 hour ago, mul21 said:

Then what is?  You specifically said you'd rather have Alonso than Busch and Busch has been clearly the better player, both offensively and defensively.  He also costs substantially less, allowing other positions to be filled with that money.  Please explain, with specific details, what the point of your post was without moving the goal posts or calling anyone names.

Team needs a superstar bat that is scary to pitchers and a bat that can hit 35-40 home runs a year. Pete Alonso provides that, Busch doesn't. Cody Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 2019 (which was the year for the juiced baseballs) and he hasn't hit 30 home runs in the four years since.  Not consistent enough to be a "star" player in my eyes. If you think Busch is going to be a star player, then I guarantee you Los Angeles wouldn't trade him, even though they have Freddie Freeman, who will be 35 next season. They just wouldn't. They gave up on Busch. When it comes to the Cubs, who needs a star bat in 3-4 spot in the lineup, and there's a star batter available over the offseason via trade in Alonso, they probably should've made the trade. They money shouldn't matter in this case. Won't cost too much in prospects because it's only for a one year deal.

If you think Busch is better than Alonso, then why would Los Angeles trade him?

[We Got The Whole 9]

6 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

Team needs a superstar bat that is scary to pitchers and a bat that can hit 35-40 home runs a year. Pete Alonso provides that, Busch doesn't. Cody Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 2019 (which was the year for the juiced baseballs) and he hasn't hit 30 home runs in the four years since.  Not consistent enough to be a "star" player in my eyes. If you think Busch is going to be a star player, then I guarantee you Los Angeles wouldn't trade him, even though they have Freddie Freeman, who will be 35 next season. They just wouldn't. They gave up on Busch. When it comes to the Cubs, who needs a star bat in 3-4 spot in the lineup, and there's a star batter available over the offseason via trade in Alonso, they probably should've made the trade. They money shouldn't matter in this case. Won't cost too much in prospects because it's only for a one year deal.

If you think Busch is better than Alonso, then why would Los Angeles trade him?

Teams aren't thinking in terms of these big round numbers. They see a guy who is 20-30% above average offensively, fat and slow, and provides nothing on defense. Plus he makes 20M already.

 

I bet he gets a lukewarm reception in FA too. Probably much like the Abreu contract. 

[WhyCantWeWin]

Nobody is safe

[squally1313]

13 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

Team needs a superstar bat that is scary to pitchers and a bat that can hit 35-40 home runs a year. Pete Alonso provides that, Busch doesn't. Cody Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 2019 (which was the year for the juiced baseballs) and he hasn't hit 30 home runs in the four years since.  Not consistent enough to be a "star" player in my eyes. If you think Busch is going to be a star player, then I guarantee you Los Angeles wouldn't trade him, even though they have Freddie Freeman, who will be 35 next season. They just wouldn't. They gave up on Busch. When it comes to the Cubs, who needs a star bat in 3-4 spot in the lineup, and there's a star batter available over the offseason via trade in Alonso, they probably should've made the trade. They money shouldn't matter in this case. Won't cost too much in prospects because it's only for a one year deal.

If you think Busch is better than Alonso, then why would Los Angeles trade him?

So the Cubs made a mistake in the offseason but the Dodgers are incapable of making mistakes in player evaluation? The Dodgers have Ohtani and Freeman signed for 4 years and picked up a 2nd round pitcher who got a huge bonus and a toolsy outfielder with a 900 OPS in single A right now. In return they gave up, again, a guy playing much better than the 'superstar bat' you keep talking about. 

[Outshined_One]

24 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

If you think Busch is better than Alonso, then why would Los Angeles trade him?

Freddie Freeman is a better 1B than Alonso, is under contract through 2027, and Jackson Ferris had a unicorn profile as a HS LHP power arm who might actually stick as a starter.  Hope was also a nice addition.

They traded from depth to improve their overall system, kind of like what the Cubs should do with their current glut of OFs.

[731.4life]

Just now, Outshined_One said:

Freddie Freeman is a better 1B than Alonso, is under contract through 2027, and Jackson Ferris had a unicorn profile as a HS LHP power arm who might actually stick as a starter.  Hope was also a nice addition.

They traded from depth to improve their overall system, kind of like what the Cubs should do with their current glut of OFs.

I agree, but it'll be tough when two of them have a no trade clause.

[731.4life]

 

57 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Teams aren't thinking in terms of these big round numbers. They see a guy who is 20-30% above average offensively, fat and slow, and provides nothing on defense. Plus he makes 20M already.

 

I bet he gets a lukewarm reception in FA too. Probably much like the Abreu contract. 

I mean, Alonso hit over 120 home runs in the past 3 seasons, and averaged 114ish RBI's in that stretch. He's doing that while playing about 95% of games in his career.

If you don't sign up for that, then what do you sign up for when you're looking at a power first baseman?

When was the last time the Cubs had that...

Edited June 18, 2024 by 731.4life

[731.4life]

2 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

 

 

Edited June 18, 2024 by 731.4life

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, 731.4life said:

When was the last time the Cubs had that...

Don't know, what happened the last time the Cubs traded for a first baseman coming off a terrible debut season who never hit for more than 32 home runs in a year but walked a bunch and played good first base defense while making essentially zero dollars

[Irrelevant Dude]

Just now, squally1313 said:

Don't know, what happened the last time the Cubs traded for a first baseman coming off a terrible debut season who never hit for more than 32 home runs in a year but walked a bunch and played good first base defense while making essentially zero dollars

Bah, that TOOTBLAN???

[731.4life]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Don't know, what happened the last time the Cubs traded for a first baseman coming off a terrible debut season who never hit for more than 32 home runs in a year but walked a bunch and played good first base defense while making essentially zero dollars

Now you're talking two different players entering an organization at two different time frames.

But hey, you know everything! I bet you're fun at parties when you associate around people. Keep being you! You have life all figured out.

[squally1313]

1 minute ago, 731.4life said:

Now you're talking two different players entering an organization at two different time frames.

But hey, you know everything! I bet you're fun at parties when you associate around people. Keep being you! You have life all figured out.

You said the Cubs made a mistake by trading for the cheaper, team controlled guy who is hitting and fielding better than the guy you wanted, and then doubled down on it when pressed. I certainly don't know much but know that you were wrong there. Won't comment on the rest of your personality, seems pretty unnecessary and irrelevant to the conversation.

[731.4life]

Just now, squally1313 said:

You said the Cubs made a mistake by trading for the cheaper, team controlled guy who is hitting and fielding better than the guy you wanted, and then doubled down on it when pressed. I certainly don't know much but know that you were wrong there. Won't comment on the rest of your personality, seems pretty unnecessary and irrelevant to the conversation.

Look, it's simple. At the end of the season, Alonso is going to hit close to 35-40 home runs and will drive in 100+ RBI's. He's consistent enough to do that. Alonso plays everyday, Busch doesn't. I understand your reasoning in "cheap/team control" but I don't think it's what the Cubs need. You made the reference to Rizzo, which make sense, but Rizzo was traded in 2012 when the team was in full rebuild.  No Cub fan knew what they were getting with Rizzo, but we were fortunate to see Rizzo/Theo's friendship paid off that started in Boston. 

Rizzo was great defensively, but may have been a step behind Freeman (Atlanta days) and Votto when it comes to offensive numbers, I'm not completely sure. When it comes to Alonso, he may not be as good defensively compared to other first baseman, but he will absolutely be the best power bat in the NL Central, and will be protected due to Bellinger/Suzuki/Happ, etc. One thing about Alonso is that he's not getting protected at all in New York. He batted 4th over the weekend, and Starling Marte and Mark Vientos are hitting behind him. The Cubs today can't hit, but Alonso is a guy that the team could rally around when he gets going, and we've seen those types of strecthes.

You can give me numbers this and numbers that about Busch having a better season so far than Alonso. Unfortunately, I'm not buying it. Alonso scares pitchers and Busch doesn't. 

Again, I understand your reasoning due to finances, but there's only so many players that are deemed stars in the MLB, and that's what the Cubs are still missing today. If Ricketts doesn't want to open up his checkbook and acquire a star, then that's on him and not Jed. Regardless, the Cubs are going no where without that type of player in the lineup. Sadly, Busch doesn't move the needle in my eyes.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There are many better ways to understand offensive production than home runs and RBI.  I don't love the Busch/Alonso comparison because they aren't mutually exclusive and there's reason to think Alonso might have hit better outside of New York.  But saying 'look he hits 30 HR and drives in 100 RBI every year, he's a star and we don't have that' is so crude a way to evaluate that it's basically useless.  If we take their production so far this year at face value, it is better in all ways to have had Busch instead of Alonso.  They've been similar offensive players with Busch showing better defensively, and more importantly, costing 20 million dollars less which means they didn't have to forego someone like Shota or Bellinger to get that production.  That's before we consider that Busch is under team control through 2029 while Alonso will be a FA in the winter.

[CubinNY]

The Alonso ship sailed (unfortunately) when they traded for Busch. 
 

He’s right up Jed’s alley. Athletic looking player who hits line drives. That’s who Jed loves. He has them in spades up and down the roster in the minors too. 
 

Not that great, but not that bad either. 

[javy knows my name]

14 hours ago, 731.4life said:

Look, it's simple. At the end of the season, Alonso is going to hit close to 35-40 home runs and will drive in 100+ RBI's. He's consistent enough to do that. Alonso plays everyday, Busch doesn't. I understand your reasoning in "cheap/team control" but I don't think it's what the Cubs need. You made the reference to Rizzo, which make sense, but Rizzo was traded in 2012 when the team was in full rebuild.  No Cub fan knew what they were getting with Rizzo, but we were fortunate to see Rizzo/Theo's friendship paid off that started in Boston. 

Rizzo was great defensively, but may have been a step behind Freeman (Atlanta days) and Votto when it comes to offensive numbers, I'm not completely sure. When it comes to Alonso, he may not be as good defensively compared to other first baseman, but he will absolutely be the best power bat in the NL Central, and will be protected due to Bellinger/Suzuki/Happ, etc. One thing about Alonso is that he's not getting protected at all in New York. He batted 4th over the weekend, and Starling Marte and Mark Vientos are hitting behind him. The Cubs today can't hit, but Alonso is a guy that the team could rally around when he gets going, and we've seen those types of strecthes.

You can give me numbers this and numbers that about Busch having a better season so far than Alonso. Unfortunately, I'm not buying it. Alonso scares pitchers and Busch doesn't. 

Again, I understand your reasoning due to finances, but there's only so many players that are deemed stars in the MLB, and that's what the Cubs are still missing today. If Ricketts doesn't want to open up his checkbook and acquire a star, then that's on him and not Jed. Regardless, the Cubs are going no where without that type of player in the lineup. Sadly, Busch doesn't move the needle in my eyes.

Why bother to move the goal posts when you can just ignore their existence

[CubinNY]

50 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Like pretty much “everyone” even here blindly  parroted Cristian Hernandez having a Machado ceiling out of the pandemic without a second thought or any thought at all towards actual work.

 

That never happened. What color is the sky in your world?

[Outshined_One]

51 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

That never happened. What color is the sky in your world?

It's Tom, better to let it slide than go down the rabbit hole.

Also, in fairness, Hernandez's production this season is making that comp slightly less laughable. Not saying I agree with it, but dude seems to have turned a corner.

[Rcal10]

18 hours ago, 731.4life said:

Team needs a superstar bat that is scary to pitchers and a bat that can hit 35-40 home runs a year. Pete Alonso provides that, Busch doesn't. Cody Bellinger hit 47 home runs in 2019 (which was the year for the juiced baseballs) and he hasn't hit 30 home runs in the four years since.  Not consistent enough to be a "star" player in my eyes. If you think Busch is going to be a star player, then I guarantee you Los Angeles wouldn't trade him, even though they have Freddie Freeman, who will be 35 next season. They just wouldn't. They gave up on Busch. When it comes to the Cubs, who needs a star bat in 3-4 spot in the lineup, and there's a star batter available over the offseason via trade in Alonso, they probably should've made the trade. They money shouldn't matter in this case. Won't cost too much in prospects because it's only for a one year deal.

If you think Busch is better than Alonso, then why would Los Angeles trade him?

The issue with your idea of Alonso is you suggest a team needs a superstar player and then use him as an example. He is not a superstar player. He hit homers. He is good at that. But that is it. And he is someone who very well will not age well and who already turned down a deal I wouldn’t want the Cubs to make for him. So he would be a rental. On top of that, the Cubs would have to lose someone to get him. Probably a decent prospect. And if we want to go further with the problems of bringing Alonso in, you can add the fact that Busch is actually outplaying him now. Sure, yiu can make a case for Alonso most likely is a better player, but you are replacing a spot you really don’t need to replace. And then one final issue with all of this Alonso talk is why are the Mets going to trade him. They are as much in the race as 8 other teams. I didn’t want him in the off season and don’t see how it is even a possibility to get him now. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Best I can tell from name searching, Pipeline says he was built like Machado at the same age, and Marquee did a puff piece that dropped A-Rod/Machado. Pretty far from some universal consensus being rewritten but I've already lost track of what the point of bringing that up might be.

[Outshined_One]

Spoiler

 

[Jason Ross]

12 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Best I can tell from name searching, Pipeline says he was built like Machado at the same age, and Marquee did a puff piece that dropped A-Rod/Machado. Pretty far from some universal consensus being rewritten but I've already lost track of what the point of bringing that up might be.

IIRC, the first mention of it came from a Baseball America article by Josh Norris from 2020, well before he signed with the Cubs officially, giving him the "Baby A-Rod" moniker. 

[CubinNY]

How much appetite does Tom have for making systemic change?  Judging from history. He has none. It would be quite a sea change to move Jed out unless he was hiring a Jed acolyte. That's even closer to 0 chance than firing Jed. 

He's going to wait and see what percolates up. However, if they continue to play poorly I do not think Jed will get an extension this offseason even if Tom wanted to, so he will be a lame duck in 2025. 

[sneakypower]

18 hours ago, 731.4life said:

Unfortunately, I'm not buying it. Alonso scares pitchers and Busch doesn't.

this point is especially amusing to me because the only ways we could try to objectively gauge this phenomenon (higher BB rate, lower in-zone rate) clearly favor Busch as the 'scarier' matchup this season