Is Jed really safe?

[Irrelevant Dude]

The general consensus has been that Jed isn't on the hot seat at all, that he is exactly what the Ricketts family wants in a GM and is playing the exact role that he is expected to play. 

But as the Cubs continue their downward spiral, is Jed's job still safe?  The Ricketts family has to care about winning at SOME level, even if only as it impacts their pocket books (attendance, cable negotiations, etc).  Jed has been given plenty of resources and has built a remarkably inefficient Major League team.

In addition, he is only under contract through next season.  Can the Cubs justify having a lame duck team president next season under these circumstances? They could give him an extension to avoid that problem, but that certainly isn't deserved and the optics certainly wouldn't be great.

Maybe Jed is a Point A to Point B guy.  He initiated the rebuild and built up the Minor League system, but now the team needs someone with the ability to use those resources to assemble a winning MLB roster.  Barring a significant turnaround over the next few months, maybe this coming off-season it's the right time to make that change.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I highly suspect the only way Jed's job could be close to in jeopardy this year is if the team were so bad that it makes it unlikely they can be competitive in 2025.  Given the composition of the roster, this requires not only being very bad, but being so in a fairly specific way.  The bullpen blowing 30 leads is more easily fixable than 3 starters having TJS and the only offensive bright spot being Bellinger who then opts out.  The other way is if the team were bad in a way that isn't objectively ruining 2025, but tanks fan enthusiasm in a way that impacts revenue and gets Ricketts attention.

This leads me to the two realities of the Cubs so far this year.

One is the objective reality, which is that despite bad injury luck, the Cubs are among a large group of mediocre teams that could easily make the playoffs.  The NL has 4 very good teams, 2 very bad teams, and 9 teams within 3 games of each other who will get 2 playoff spots.  While we could *hope* the Cubs could cross into that very good category this year, the *expectation* given the org's state and payroll was that they should be in that upper class of the next tier to make the playoffs.  Injuries and uneven performances have dropped them to the bottom of that tier, but that hole is not a deep one.  Getting out of it is unlikely without intervention, but it's not a matter of wholesale changes(a catcher with an MLB bat, a reliever, and some injury recovery could be plenty).

The other is the emotional reality, which is that the 2024 Cubs have been an intensely frustrating team to watch even by the standards of mediocre teams(which are always going to be more frustrating than either extreme).  They blow late leads, they have long stretches of offensive struggles.  We thought last year's team played an incredible number of close games, this year's Cubs are on pace to have 33% more one run games and have played 6 more than any other team in the NL to date.  While that emotional reality is not necessarily predictive, the feelings are real, and if they continue for long enough people are going to check out on the team this year.  Is that enough to reach a critical mass where Ricketts takes action?  My guess is no.  But compared to another 82-84 win season it would make 2025 much more make and break for Jed.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What would firing even do? They’re all alike and fundamentally the problem is the dominance and agendas of our owner overlords and the businessificaiton of all life. Everyone uses the same tools, has the same objective of putting out the cheapest, most under control, maybe youngest team out there (note how winning isn’t on the list).

I'm not buying that.  The Cubs have double the payroll of 3 of the teams in their division, with only the Cardinals being remotely close (and still about $35M away).  Yes, there are other bad teams in MLB with high payrolls, some even higher than the Cubs, but that doesn't absolve Jed of his poor roster construction.  We all understand that the Cubs could and should spend more money, BUT they are still spending in the Top 10 of MLB and that should be enough to put a consistently competitive team on the field.  If you are given $220ish Million to spend, there is more than one way to get there.  So far, Jed's way (spending everything on second-tier, average to good but not great, players) hasn't worked and doesn't show any signs that it is going to work in the near future.

[Tryptamine]

As was mentioned before, even if Jed were fired today, could the next person make the 2025 team competitive given the contract situation Jed already has this team in? I genuinely don't think so. There's too many holes and not enough money to fill them all. Any significant improvements would have to come via trade. Even with all of Smyly, Hendricks, Gomes, Mancini, Barnhart and potentially Bellinger, coming off the books there's not enough to grab someone like Soto and fill all the necessary holes. 

[CubinNY]

I don't think Jed's job is in jeopardy. But we don't know what is happening behind the scenes. If he is leaving money in the budget every year and not using it, the Ricketts may get frustrated with the pace of improvement and or the ire of the fans. My guess is 1> He's spending to the limit imposed by the owners and 2> The Ricketts are insulated enough by the pile of money they have that it doesn't bother them to be the villain. It is unlikely that people will stop showing up or the corporate seats will go unsold (if unused), so he's safe. 

I think we will get a letter from the owner this year expressing disappointment in the record but praising Jed and Counsell for holding things together in the face of unprecedented injuries. 

Jed is Tom's man.

[jersey cubs fan]

The only people he pays are glove first second tier guys and dudes willing to give away a free agent year to lock down their first big contract. And managers. The dope actually thought a manager upgrade would make a mediocre team a real contender. Jed’s extreme caution will probably keep him employed and the cubs will keep drafting in the teens. 

[CubinNY]

9 minutes ago, jersey cubs fan said:

The only people he pays are glove first second tier guys and dudes willing to give away a free agent year to lock down their first big contract. And managers. The dope actually thought a manager upgrade would make a mediocre team a real contender. Jed’s extreme caution will probably keep him employed and the cubs will keep drafting in the teens. 

That's a good point. He's not bad as much as he is mediocre. In the mix most years is the bar, and he can get the team there most years.

[Tryptamine]

9 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

That's a good point. He's not bad as much as he is mediocre. In the mix most years is the bar, and he can get the team there most years.

The problem is that he's very good at one aspect of the job and very bad at the other. He's in the upper 25% of GMs, maybe even higher, as far as building a farm goes. He's pretty easily in the bottom 25% for FA. I honestly wonder if he wouldn't get better results if he was working with a team with far more limited financial resources. Because he has the financial ability to do so, it's like he feels compelled to give guys 2 year deals who may not even deserve a 1 year deal. All the while, he's too scared to use those same financial resources to dip into the elite end of the talent pool. Instead he uses those resources to fill the roster with mediocrity.  

[731.4life]

Everything depends on how bad Tom wants to win. We could be like St. Louis and have an owner that doesn't care to win, and a front office that has a bunch of "yes man" to Mozeliak/DeWitt. In reward, Marmol gets an extension after a 71-win season.

One thing about Jed, if Jed sells at the deadline, he may get fired, and I think he knows that.  

If they were going to trade for Busch (and I know he bats left), and keep Matt Mervis in Iowa (which I think he should be traded to get an opportunity to play), then they should've traded for Pete Alonso and you have an anchor in the lineup that can hopefully hit 35+ homers and be an MVP candidate, which is what you know you're missing. Alonso is going to be traded in July. Not saying Busch is a bad player, but it doesn't make sense to me, to do that, knowing Alonso is better than Busch. 

If Ricketts is telling him to get an MVP caliber player, but not willing to open the paycheck more, than that's on Ricketts. And that problem is the main problem going on in Pittsburgh.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

If they were going to trade for Busch (and I know he bats left), and keep Matt Mervis in Iowa (which I think he should be traded to get an opportunity to play), then they should've traded for Pete Alonso and you have an anchor in the lineup that can hopefully hit 35+ homers and be an MVP candidate, which is what you know you're missing. Alonso is going to be traded in July. Not saying Busch is a bad player, but it doesn't make sense to me, to do that, knowing Alonso is better than Busch. 

Blind player time!

• Player A: .255/.350/.450 .349 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, 128 wRC, -1.1 defense, 1.5 fWAR
• Player B: .239/.317/.464, .338 wOBA, .337 xwOBA, -7.7 defense, 1.0 fWAR

Alonso makes $20.5m this year and is a free agent. Busch makes $741k and has 5 more seasons of control. 

[Ding Dong Johnson]

hope not

[We Got The Whole 9]

A handful of teams are winning with half the payroll and that's gotta eat at Tom. We're basically driving like a used Civic that cost like 50K because we had to get out of our previous underwater contract. If I were him I would fire Jawkins after the season. They've made some good moves but the lack of development on the MLB club would be giving me fits and seeing the Brewers absolutely rolling with several key injuries, a new Manager that replaced the Manager you poached, and a plethora of no-names/cheap-ass talent actually contributing, I'd be furious. 

Edited June 18, 2024 by We Got The Whole 9

[Jason Ross]

I'll offer a different perspective and it's that yes, I don't think he's very safe right now. While I don't think it's entirely Jed's fault for injuries and some bad luck happening, it's still his roster in year four, and I think someone's going to take the heat if this team wins 78 games. The Cubs made a managerial change last offseason amidst the fan anger, which both helped push forward expectations (by getting, in perception, the best manager in the game) and the team has continued to under perform (fairly or unfairly). They can't just fire the manager again, which leaves few options for the axe to fall on. The Cubs could once again, fire the hitting coaches, but they've tried that a handful of times and that's never fixed much; I'm not sure the Cubs are going to get away with that as an acceptable "fix" when it comes to fans and media.

A lot of this comes down to how much you think Tom Ricketts cares about public perception. I don't think Tom cares about winning so much as the perception of being competitive brings; the latter helps bring in the money. Tom's the kind of guy who skips Cubs Convention, conveniently, when he knows questions of spending/winning/losing are going to come up. He feels like the kind of owner who, if push comes to shove, will shift blame to those he can; in this instance, Jed Hoyer. With one year left on his contract, Jed's firing won't hurt Tom super-big in the pockets, and his firing can spearhead both a positive public spin and deflect that blame. It may also bring in a general manager more willing to take some swings, for better or worse. While I don't think Tom's a particularly interesting owner, I think his biggest reservations are year to year spending, and not the long term contract (I think that's more Jed than Tom, personally), A new VP of baseball may be willing to make a bigger prospect trade putting the Cubs back in even more favorable media light.

Initially, I thought Jed would be safe almost regardless, but I think Tom's the kind of guy who's going to make sure the axe comes down on any one but himself publicly, and I think the only real way to make that happen, unless the Cubs turn this around, is to blame Jed. Fans are mad right now. They're exhausted. I don't think the masses will be jazzed if Cubs keep the band back together and just say "one more time!". It might be prudent baseball ops wise, but again, I just don't know if Tom will be willing to eat that press. 

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'll offer a different perspective and it's that yes, I don't think he's very safe right now. While I don't think it's entirely Jed's fault for injuries and some bad luck happening, it's still his roster in year four, and I think someone's going to take the heat if this team wins 78 games. The Cubs made a managerial change last offseason amidst the fan anger, which both helped push forward expectations (by getting, in perception, the best manager in the game) and the team has continued to under perform (fairly or unfairly). They can't just fire the manager again, which leaves few options for the axe to fall on. The Cubs could once again, fire the hitting coaches, but they've tried that a handful of times and that's never fixed much; I'm not sure the Cubs are going to get away with that as an acceptable "fix" when it comes to fans and media.

A lot of this comes down to how much you think Tom Ricketts cares about public perception. I don't think Tom cares about winning so much as the perception of being competitive brings; the latter helps bring in the money. Tom's the kind of guy who skips Cubs Convention, conveniently, when he knows questions of spending/winning/losing are going to come up. He feels like the kind of owner who, if push comes to shove, will shift blame to those he can; in this instance, Jed Hoyer. With one year left on his contract, Jed's firing won't hurt Tom super-big in the pockets, and his firing can spearhead both a positive public spin and deflect that blame. It may also bring in a general manager more willing to take some swings, for better or worse. While I don't think Tom's a particularly interesting owner, I think his biggest reservations are year to year spending, and not the long term contract (I think that's more Jed than Tom, personally), A new VP of baseball may be willing to make a bigger prospect trade putting the Cubs back in even more favorable media light.

Initially, I thought Jed would be safe almost regardless, but I think Tom's the kind of guy who's going to make sure the axe comes down on any one but himself publicly, and I think the only real way to make that happen, unless the Cubs turn this around, is to blame Jed. Fans are mad right now. They're exhausted. I don't think the masses will be jazzed if Cubs keep the band back together and just say "one more time!". It might be prudent baseball ops wise, but again, I just don't know if Tom will be willing to eat that press. 

There's always Carter Hawkins, who is technically the GM even though we all Know everything is run by Jed. 

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

There's always Carter Hawkins, who is technically the GM even though we all Know everything is run by Jed. 

There is. But much like hitting coaches, I think we have to ask "does that really quell fans and the media?" and I think the answer is "no". Jed hired Carter, so that's still coming back on him. Carter's not been here for the full four years, And I don't think the average fan thinks Hawkins is pulling many strings. 

I just don't think "Cubs fire Carter Hawkins" makes the masses on twitter, facebook, reddit, and the overall media happy or calm. It feels like it'd end up in the same boat as "Cubs fire Dustin Kelly as hitting coach" to those groups. 

[squally1313]

Just now, 1908_Cubs said:

There is. But much like hitting coaches, I think we have to ask "does that really quell fans and the media?" and I think the answer is "no". Jed hired Carter, so that's still coming back on him. Carter's not been here for the full four years, And I don't think the average fan thinks Hawkins is pulling many strings. 

I just don't think "Cubs fire Carter Hawkins" makes the masses on twitter, facebook, reddit, and the overall media happy or calm. It feels like it'd end up in the same boat as "Cubs fire Dustin Kelly as hitting coach" to those groups. 

[LBiittner]

38 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'll offer a different perspective and it's that yes, I don't think he's very safe right now. While I don't think it's entirely Jed's fault for injuries and some bad luck happening, it's still his roster in year four, and I think someone's going to take the heat if this team wins 78 games. The Cubs made a managerial change last offseason amidst the fan anger, which both helped push forward expectations (by getting, in perception, the best manager in the game) and the team has continued to under perform (fairly or unfairly). They can't just fire the manager again, which leaves few options for the axe to fall on. The Cubs could once again, fire the hitting coaches, but they've tried that a handful of times and that's never fixed much; I'm not sure the Cubs are going to get away with that as an acceptable "fix" when it comes to fans and media.

A lot of this comes down to how much you think Tom Ricketts cares about public perception. I don't think Tom cares about winning so much as the perception of being competitive brings; the latter helps bring in the money. Tom's the kind of guy who skips Cubs Convention, conveniently, when he knows questions of spending/winning/losing are going to come up. He feels like the kind of owner who, if push comes to shove, will shift blame to those he can; in this instance, Jed Hoyer. With one year left on his contract, Jed's firing won't hurt Tom super-big in the pockets, and his firing can spearhead both a positive public spin and deflect that blame. It may also bring in a general manager more willing to take some swings, for better or worse. While I don't think Tom's a particularly interesting owner, I think his biggest reservations are year to year spending, and not the long term contract (I think that's more Jed than Tom, personally), A new VP of baseball may be willing to make a bigger prospect trade putting the Cubs back in even more favorable media light.

Initially, I thought Jed would be safe almost regardless, but I think Tom's the kind of guy who's going to make sure the axe comes down on any one but himself publicly, and I think the only real way to make that happen, unless the Cubs turn this around, is to blame Jed. Fans are mad right now. They're exhausted. I don't think the masses will be jazzed if Cubs keep the band back together and just say "one more time!". It might be prudent baseball ops wise, but again, I just don't know if Tom will be willing to eat that press. 

Bravo!

I wish Tom would take a page from the book of Bill veeck and do a weekly radio show answering fan questions, bwahahaha 

Edited June 18, 2024 by LBiittner

[Irrelevant Dude]

43 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

There's always Carter Hawkins, who is technically the GM even though we all Know everything is run by Jed. 

That would be an all-time dick move by Hoyer, firing the GM to take the fall for his own mistakes.  Short of something going on behind the scenes with Hawkins that we don't know about, that isn't going to happen.

[Tryptamine]

26 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Bravo!

I wish Tom would take a page from the book of Bill veeck and do a weekly radio show answering fan questions, bwahahaha 

Tom is busy being in hiding now. He's skipped what, the last 2 Cub conventions now? He doesn't do the going out to the bleachers gimmick anymore either. 

[731.4life]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

Blind player time!

• Player A: .255/.350/.450 .349 wOBA, .336 xwOBA, 128 wRC, -1.1 defense, 1.5 fWAR
• Player B: .239/.317/.464, .338 wOBA, .337 xwOBA, -7.7 defense, 1.0 fWAR

Alonso makes $20.5m this year and is a free agent. Busch makes $741k and has 5 more seasons of control. 

That's not the point of my post. 

[mul21]

11 minutes ago, 731.4life said:

That's not the point of my post. 

Then what is?  You specifically said you'd rather have Alonso than Busch and Busch has been clearly the better player, both offensively and defensively.  He also costs substantially less, allowing other positions to be filled with that money.  Please explain, with specific details, what the point of your post was without moving the goal posts or calling anyone names.

[Outshined_One]

It's hard to say how much trouble Jed is in at this point.  On the one hand, the farm system and team appear to be stocked for young players to develop and/or trade for the foreseeable future.  It's not like we're back in the final days of the Hendry era, where the farm system had been burned to the ground and there was zero hope for any sort of playoff run in the foreseeable future.  Setting aside the hard numbers (more on that in a second), you can talk yourself into thinking the rotation and position players being good and being good for a few years.

Additionally, part of this team's problem stems from player production rather than roster construction.  No one is having a career year on offense.  Guys like Bellinger, Swanson, Nico, Seiya, and Happ *should* be producing at high enough levels, above and beyond what we've seen from them to this point of the season.  We've also seen the underlying data to suggest that they've run into bad luck and that there should be a correction.  They shouldn't be actively bad, much less kinda mediocre.  I don't know how much of that can be placed on Jed.

However, there have been two historical issues with Jed that have been problems for this team, that continue to be problems with this team, and that haven't been addressed yet.  First, this team needs a superstar-level bat.  I can't think of anyone who was projected to be an MVP-caliber bat coming into this season or coming into this past season.  Bellinger was a nice get, and Seiya's a good piece, but imagine if this team had Juan Soto or Ohtani.  Presumably that bat will eventually come from the farm system, but guys like PCA and Ballesteros and Alcantara weren't going to be ready to produce at that level this season.  Second, this team's bullpen construction has been garbage.  We all know this problem by now, so, the less said, the better.

Admittedly, those two problems can be chalked up to ownership being cheap to varying degrees, but I feel like a better bullpen could have been assembled at the same price of the current pen.  There's something off about how this team evaluates relief pitchers in free agency and the trade market.

The cracks in the facade are there for Jed, and Ricketts might want to take a make a change, but it's exceedingly rare to see a front office guy get canned pre-trade deadline.  I think it's unlikely Ricketts makes a change this offseason, but 2025 will be do-or-die for Jed.

[Irrelevant Dude]

18 minutes ago, Outshined_One said:

IFirst, this team needs a superstar-level bat.  I can't think of anyone who was projected to be an MVP-caliber bat coming into this season or coming into this past season.  Bellinger was a nice get, and Seiya's a good piece, but imagine if this team had Juan Soto or Ohtani.  Presumably that bat will eventually come from the farm system

That is the "problem" with the farm system.  While very deep and highly rated, which prospect actually projects as a superstar hitter?  There are a lot of potential supplemental roster pieces and likely some solid Major League starters.  Those are very nice to have, but I still don't see where the top end talent comes from.  MAYBE Caissie ends up being one of those guys if he continues to progress, but I just dont' see any other true impact bats.

On the other hand, there aren't many Soto's or Ohtani's around.  IF Soto does hit the free agent market this offseason, the aggressive non-Jed thing to do would be to go all out and pay him whatever it takes to bring him to Chicago.  The Cubs minor league depth is a significant asset that grants them the ability to work around a massive contract, should they choose to go that direction.  Outside of trade possibilities, they can hopefully count on two or more of the group of Caissie, Shaw, Alcantra, Triantos, Ballasteros, etc. as cost-controlled Major League starters in the near future, joining other guys on the roster like Busch and Morel.  They have the ability to fill several positions cheaply so that they can spend big at one position to get a true superstar bat. 

Do I think that type of move is on Jed's radar?  Not at all.  He is unlikely to go anywhere near Soto's price tag, and will instead spread that money around to multiple guys that are only marginally better (if at all) than the Cubs' cheaper internal options.

Edited June 18, 2024 by Irrelevant Dude

[Jason Ross]

28 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

That is the "problem" with the farm system.  While very deep and highly rated, which prospect actually projects as a superstar hitter?  There are a lot of potential supplemental roster pieces and likely some solid Major League starters.  Those are very nice to have, but I still don't see where the top end talent comes from.  MAYBE Caissie ends up being one of those guys if he continues to progress, but I just dont' see any other true impact bats.

On the other hand, there aren't many Soto's or Ohtani's around.  IF Soto does hit the free agent market this offseason, the aggressive non-Jed thing to do would be to go all out and pay him whatever it takes to bring him to Chicago.  The Cubs minor league depth is a significant asset that grants them the ability to work around a massive contract, should they choose to go that direction.  Outside of trade possibilities, they can hopefully count on two or more of the group of Caissie, Shaw, Alcantra, Triantos, Ballasteros, etc. as cost-controlled Major League starters in the near future, joining other guys on the roster like Busch and Morel.  They have the ability to fill several positions cheaply so that they can spend big at one position to get a true superstar bat. 

Do I think that type of move is on Jed's radar?  Not at all.  He is unlikely to go anywhere near Soto's price tag, and will instead spread that money around to multiple guys that are only marginally better (if at all) than the Cubs' cheaper internal options.

I mean, if we're talking star potential bats, I think both Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros fit into that category. Ballesteros, by wRC+, is having one of the best seasons Double-A has seen based on his age in about two decades of numbers. Owen Caissie has consistently posted elite exit velocities, has been lowering his K% and increasing his home run production. Both likely fall into "star" bat possibilities. You can point to their overall rankings, but I think that has to do with the uncertainty of their defensive futures and less to do with their bats. That' not to say either, or both, will hit their ceilings, but let's not discount these guys; they're two of the best bat prospects the Cubs have had in a long time.

[Outshined_One]

15 minutes ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

That is the "problem" with the farm system.  While very deep and highly rated, which prospect actually projects as a superstar hitter?  There are a lot of potential supplemental roster pieces and likely some solid Major League starters.  Those are very nice to have, but I still don't see where the top end talent comes from.  MAYBE Caissie ends up being one of those guys if he continues to progress, but I just dont' see any other true impact bats.

On the other hand, there aren't many Soto's or Ohtani's around.  IF Soto does hit the free agent market this offseason, the aggressive non-Jed thing to do would be to go all out and pay him whatever it takes to bring him to Chicago.  The Cubs minor league depth is a significant asset that grants them the ability to work around a massive contract, should they choose to go that direction.  Outside of trade possibilities, they can hopefully count on two or more of the group of Caissie, Shaw, Alcantra, Triantos, Ballasteros, etc. as cost-controlled Major League starters in the near future, joining other guys on the roster like Busch and Morel.  They have the ability to fill several positions cheaply so that they can spend big at one position to get a true superstar bat. 

Do I think that type of move is on Jed's radar?  Not at all.  He is unlikely to go anywhere near Soto's price tag, and will instead spread that money around to multiple guys that are only marginally better (if at all) than the Cubs' cheaper internal options.

You pretty much answered your own question here.  In fairness to the Cubs, there isn't a single team that's unlocked the secret to developing superstars internally., and those guys are few and far between  Most superstar-level guys were either high draft picks or bonus babies (Soto got $1.5m as a 16 year old), and even then, you sometimes get a Kris Bryant, and you sometimes get a Mark Appel.  Considering the Cubs have picked three times in the top 10 of the MLB draft over the last decade (Schwarber, Happ, Horton), they've done a pretty darn good job of building a high quality farm system.

Where we agree is that Jed needs to look externally for the superstar bat when there are no internal options, and it's unlikely that he either will have the financial backing to do it or that he'd be willing to part with the pieces needed to acquire those guys.

That being said, I'm fully on Team Ballesteros.  I can't tell if he's going to eat his way out of the league or what, but he's a hell of a hitter.