4/29/24 - CHC (Taillon) @ NYM (Severino) 6:10 MSN

[Bertz]

Brewers fans are going to howl over this.  I'm torn, on the one hand in real time it didn't seem to matter.  On the other in the replay it clearly hit him and did move his head a bit so you probably should call the play dead.

[chibears55]

Let never relinquish it..

 

[Andy]

28 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Brewers fans are going to howl over this.  I'm torn, on the one hand in real time it didn't seem to matter.  On the other in the replay it clearly hit him and did move his head a bit so you probably should call the play dead.

By the letter of the rule it should definitely have been called dead. I recall there being a bit of a stink about that not getting called in the bananas NLDS game 5 when Javy's bat did the same thing.

[UMFan83]

Is there anything notable about Tauchman’s profile this year that would suggest what he’s doing right now is sustainable?  Obviously he had a really solid season last year and had a particularly hot stretch in July/August but did level off a bit the rest of the year (but still solid year overall). With all the injuries hitting/getting on base right now is so crucial for us. Not expecting him to randomly be a .900 OPS hitter at age 34 but would be nice if what he is doing is somewhat sustainable. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Would Mervis be better used at 1B now and Busch DH ?

Probably.  I can't recall in my life seeing an MLB 1B so bad at picking balls in the dirt.

[PackLandVA]

2 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Probably.  I can't recall in my life seeing an MLB 1B so bad at picking balls in the dirt.

I don't know, maybe the infielders can stop throwing dirt balls.  That would be a nice start.

[Stratos]

Cubs offense 3rd in MLB in OPS at home, 22nd in OPS on the road.  Still struggling a bit overall vs RHP.  2nd in MLB in OPS vs LHP.

Nice HR by Morel but man has he looked horrible the last few weeks with the bat.  Encouraging growth defensively.

[ToolDRT]

Id suggest letting Busch learn the position with consistent reps.  Mervis looks absolutely useless at the plate…again. Not like he’s gonna be here very long. 

Edited April 30, 2024 by ToolDRT

[Stratos]

6 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

I don't know, maybe the infielders can stop throwing dirt balls.  That would be a nice start.

True but a pick really isn't that hard most of the time.  His success rate must be pretty bad.  He came up as a 2B, wtf.

Noticed he has one of those massive 1B gloves.  Maybe it's a little too big/heavy for him LOL.

Edited April 30, 2024 by Stratos

[Stratos]

Just now, ToolDRT said:

I say let Busch learn the position. Mervis looks absolutely useless at the plate…again. Not like he’s gonna be here very long. 

He doesn't look very confident, like last year.  Maybe we can call him Nervous Mervis.  Sometimes he just doesn't put much conviction in his swing.  PCA looks a lot more relaxed this year, and not trying to impress as much.

[ToolDRT]

18 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He doesn't look very confident, like last year.  Maybe we can call him Nervous Mervis.  Sometimes he just doesn't put much conviction in his swing.  PCA looks a lot more relaxed this year, and not trying to impress as much.

Yeah, he honestly looks frustrated already. I think he carried over last year to this year. 

[UMFan83]

Alzolay this year when he was the closer:  1.40 WHIP, 7.78 FIP, 3 saves in 7 chances, 0.4 HR/IP, 8.1 K/9, 9.5% walk rate

Neris since becoming the closer - 1.50 WHIP, 8.18 FIP, 4 saves in 4 chances, 0.25 HP/IP, 9 K/9, 22.2% walk rate

I know these are just a couple of isolated stats and there's sample size issues and so much more, I'm not actually saying anything other than its amusing to me that Neris is arguably pitching worse as a whole than Adbert but so far has gotten results.

Edited April 30, 2024 by UMFan83

[We Got The Whole 9]

2 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Is there anything notable about Tauchman’s profile this year that would suggest what he’s doing right now is sustainable?  Obviously he had a really solid season last year and had a particularly hot stretch in July/August but did level off a bit the rest of the year (but still solid year overall). With all the injuries hitting/getting on base right now is so crucial for us. Not expecting him to randomly be a .900 OPS hitter at age 34 but would be nice if what he is doing is somewhat sustainable. 

Check the thread I posted a few days ago. Major improvements across the board in his approach. Not chasing as much, swinging at more strikes, big improvements in contact and hard contact, barrel rate, and pretty much doubled his launch angle. His plate coverage has been really good. His approach is bar none the best on the team.

[PackLandVA]

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2023: 

14 innings, 15 hits, 7 ER, 4.50 ERA, AVG .263, GO/AO  0.59, WHIP 1.36

Cubs record 0-3

 

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2024:

18 innings, 14 hits, 3ER, 1.50 ERA, AVG .204, GO/AO  0.88, WHIP 0.94.

 Cubs record 3-0

 

 

Clearly not going to post the numbers across the entire season.  But what a huge boost it would be if JT could be closer to this start of the season as opposed to last season.

 

Edited April 30, 2024 by PackLandVA

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Alzolay this year when he was the closer:  1.40 WHIP, 7.78 FIP, 3 saves in 7 chances, 0.4 HR/IP, 8.1 K/9, 9.5% walk rate

Neris since becoming the closer - 1.50 WHIP, 8.18 FIP, 4 saves in 4 chances, 0.25 HP/IP, 9 K/9, 22.2% walk rate

I know these are just a couple of isolated stats and there's sample size issues and so much more, I'm not actually saying anything other than its amusing to me that Neris is arguably pitching worse as a whole than Adbert but so far has gotten results.

Let's hope Neris and Alzolay get on track.  The location on Neris' split has been terrible.  He was locating the fastball today which was good.  Get most of the rotation healthy and the pen has potential to be strong with guys like Assad, Brown, Wesneski, Thompson etc.  Wieck has been pitching nicely in Iowa too so far if they need a LHP.

If/when they get Steele, Seiya, Bellinger back this team could go on a run.  We won't even need Mervis to hit at that point with Tauchman playing his balls off again this year and PCA looking pretty solid and comfortable so far.  Having an OF bench of Tauchman/PCA/Canario is very strong (though PCA probably plays fulltime whatever level he's playing at).

Edited April 30, 2024 by Stratos

[Derwood]

5 hours ago, PackLandVA said:

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2023: 

14 innings, 15 hits, 7 ER, 4.50 ERA, AVG .263, GO/AO  0.59, WHIP 1.36

Cubs record 0-3

 

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2024:

18 innings, 14 hits, 3ER, 1.50 ERA, AVG .204, GO/AO  0.88, WHIP 0.94.

 Cubs record 3-0

 

 

Clearly not going to post the numbers across the entire season.  But what a huge boost it would be if JT could be closer to this start of the season as opposed to last season.

 

 

Yeah, Taillon's 3rd start on 2023 really helped his numbers. His ERA exploded after that

[Jason Ross]

8 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Is there anything notable about Tauchman’s profile this year that would suggest what he’s doing right now is sustainable?  Obviously he had a really solid season last year and had a particularly hot stretch in July/August but did level off a bit the rest of the year (but still solid year overall). With all the injuries hitting/getting on base right now is so crucial for us. Not expecting him to randomly be a .900 OPS hitter at age 34 but would be nice if what he is doing is somewhat sustainable. 

So, there does seem to be some changes under the hood, while also some changes that we're seeing in results. For example, Tauchman is swinging 5% more and chasing 3% more. He's actually pulling the ball less (which is weird because the power is spiking and normally those things go hand in hand). The big change is a 10% increase in fly balls, which probably explains the ISO explosion. He's seeing this result in far better barrel rates and sweet-spot rates (also likely aiding the ISO explosion).

Where I'd caution is this: it's generally believed that you need more than 150 PA's to be comfortable that a plate approach change has occurred and is effective with players like Tauchman who have significant data sets. I think it's likely that in same way shape or form this is the "high water mark" on the season for Mike...he's got a 169 wRC+ that just isn't going to keep regardless of what his xData suggests - I think we all know he's not a top-10 hitter in baseball.  He's running a .353 BABIP, which is probably .30-.40 points high as well. So I think we have to know that the league will re-adjust in some fashion/manner and there's going to be regression; there just aren't that many 33 year olds in the history of baseball who went from a career 102 wRC+ hitter to being a top-20 guy, ya know? He's also going to go through the normal ups and downs on the season like all hitters. 

With that said, if these approach changes stick, there's probably good reason to believe that Tauchman will have improved his overall profile. Hitting the ball in the air is good. Improved slugging is good. Swinging a bit more in a controlled manner is good. Tauchman finished with a 107 wRC+ last year and this version looks to be an improvement over that. So if these approach changes keep, probably safe to assume a 110-115 wRC+ is on the table for Mike the rest of the way. Which is awesome for him and the Cubs. 

[Bertz]

8 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

Is there anything notable about Tauchman’s profile this year that would suggest what he’s doing right now is sustainable?  Obviously he had a really solid season last year and had a particularly hot stretch in July/August but did level off a bit the rest of the year (but still solid year overall). With all the injuries hitting/getting on base right now is so crucial for us. Not expecting him to randomly be a .900 OPS hitter at age 34 but would be nice if what he is doing is somewhat sustainable. 

It's probably just a hot streak?  I see two things notably different from last year:

1. He's swinging In-Zone a lot more.  Tauchman is often beyond patient to the point of passive so this is big

2. His launch angle is way up but his groundball rate is flat. So he's trading some low line drives for outfield liners and also unfortunately some pop-ups

Neither of these feel like fundamental changes?  I would guess they are more just the things that he's doing when he's going well.

[CubinNY]

Morel is playing a much better 3rd base lately. This team is coming together if they can get healthy. 

[Andy]

9 hours ago, PackLandVA said:

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2023: 

14 innings, 15 hits, 7 ER, 4.50 ERA, AVG .263, GO/AO  0.59, WHIP 1.36

Cubs record 0-3

 

Jameson Taillon thru his first 3 starts in 2024:

18 innings, 14 hits, 3ER, 1.50 ERA, AVG .204, GO/AO  0.88, WHIP 0.94.

 Cubs record 3-0

 

 

Clearly not going to post the numbers across the entire season.  But what a huge boost it would be if JT could be closer to this start of the season as opposed to last season.

 

I texted my friends last night that now that Taillon apparently doesn't suck anymore and Madrigal has graduated from completely useless to still bad but occasionally helpful, Neris is in the pole position to be the Cub I take out all my baseball anxieties on.