4/8/24 - Cubs (Assad) @ Padre (Darvish) - 8:40 WFT MARQ

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

This is the second 6+ run implosion in the late innings while holding a large lead in the last week.  I don't expect it to happen twice a week for the rest of the year, maybe there isn't another one all year and this was just a weird quirky blip, for now its definitely something a bit alarming.

Not trying to get into 'sky is falling' mode because its not but given how historically bad the Cubs pen was last September, this is the last thing I wanted to see to start the year.

Yeah, it's certainly not a great look. And you're right not our first implosion! But even after implosions, the Cubs offense will have a chance to get them back in it; like they did with Colorado. Why I think that we probably won't witness another historic implosion for a while. Those are just so few and far between. 

With that said, yeah, definitely not a great look. Predictable though. The rotation is down 2 of 5 starters, the BP down one of it's 3 or so best arms. weather delays taxed the bullpen even more, and players are still ramping up to full-season length. It's a tired bullpen, on top of a taxed bullpen depth wise. Hopefully a combination of warmer weather, health across the rotation, and some youth development-bullpen-infusion helps stabilize the pen sooner rather than later. But something concerning as well for the next month or so at the very least.

[squally1313]

8 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

This is the second 6+ run implosion in the late innings while holding a large lead in the last week.  I don't expect it to happen twice a week for the rest of the year, maybe there isn't another one all year and this was just a weird quirky blip, for now its definitely something a bit alarming.

Not trying to get into 'sky is falling' mode because its not but given how historically bad the Cubs pen was last September, this is the last thing I wanted to see to start the year.

Not trying to minimize as much as I'm trying to point to really bad sequencing and selective memory, but the Cubs bullpen had a 3.56 ERA in October last year and were 18th in fWAR, while being 28th in WPA

[Bertz]

Also the Rockies implosion was mostly bad luck/BABIP/sequencing while last night's was legitimate bad pitching.

[UMFan83]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Not trying to minimize as much as I'm trying to point to really bad sequencing and selective memory, but the Cubs bullpen had a 3.56 ERA in October last year and were 18th in fWAR, while being 28th in WPA

The 'historic' reference was about tying a record for most games lost with a lead in the 8th inning in one month last September.  That horsefeathers gives you scar tissue.

Edited April 9, 2024 by UMFan83

[JHBulls]

Every Cub fan today who went to bed when the score was 8-0 and checked the scores expecting to see a Cubs W.

 

[PackLandVA]

Given the choice, I’d rather the Cubs bullpen be in disarray in April than in the second half of the season. They at least have time to get things sorted out. Didn’t the pen start out rough last year, too?

[CubinNY]

18 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Given the choice, I’d rather the Cubs bullpen be in disarray in April than in the second half of the season. They at least have time to get things sorted out. Didn’t the pen start out rough last year, too?

Finished rough too. 

Jed's MO is to figure out the pen through attrition during the season.  

[Stratos]

36 minutes ago, PackLandVA said:

Given the choice, I’d rather the Cubs bullpen be in disarray in April than in the second half of the season. They at least have time to get things sorted out. Didn’t the pen start out rough last year, too?

Yeah they did and we missed the playoffs by 1 game.  The pen was also a mess in Sept.  I'm tired of the pen being in disarray. 

Yes reliever results have some randomness, but having a pen filled with mostly random dudes off the scrap heap is going to lead to more randomness because we have no idea who will have a good or bad year if few guys are inherently, clearly good pitchers.  Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman weren't randomly good, they were money every year.  Cuas, Almonte, Leiter, and Merryweather are just random dudes.  They all have the potential to be good, Smyly and Palencia aren't exactly guys you can count on.  Neris' velo was down 1.5 mph last year so we got him on a sort-of discount. even though he's been only a bit above average most of his career.

Cubs continue to just roll the dice in the pen and let the chips fall because that's how the they see bullpens:  random.  I get the thinking but i'm pretty tired of it, but not much we can do I guess given cheap man Ricketts, and the upper minors doesn't have much in terms of dominant reliever prospects.

I don't expect blowing 8-run leads to be normal, but the entire pen has looked shaky so far and the whole thing is held together with tape like last year.  You want to waste the first month or 2 figuring out which random dudes are going to be effective and you'll blow your playoff chances just like last year too.  Go get some f***king arms instead of this Almonte/Cuas dice-rolling nonsense.

Edited April 9, 2024 by Stratos

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, Stratos said:

Yeah they did and we missed the playoffs by 1 game.  The pen was also a mess in Sept.  I'm tired of the pen being in disarray. 

Having a pen filled with mostly random dudes off the scrap heap is going to lead to more randomness because we have no idea who will have a good or bad year if few guys are inherently, clearly good pitchers.  Cuas, Almonte, Leiter, and Merryweather are just random dudes.  They all have the potential to be good, Smyly and Palencia aren't exactly guys you can count on.  Neris' velo was down 1.5 mph last year so we got him on a sort-of discount. even though he's been only a bit above average most of his career.

Cubs continue to just roll the dice in the pen and let the chips fall because that's how the they see bullpens:  random.  I get the thinking but i'm pretty tired of it, but not much we can do I guess given cheap man Ricketts, and the upper minors doesn't have much in terms of dominant reliever prospects.

I don't expect blowing 8-run leads to be normal, but the entire pen has looked shaky so far and the whole thing is held together with tape like last year.  You want to waste the first month or 2 figuring out which random dudes are going to be effective and you'll blow your playoff chances just like last year too.  Go get some f***king arms instead of this Almonte/Cuas dice-rolling nonsense.

It's not as easy as just throwing money at it

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=21&stats=rel&qual=1&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1

 

[PackLandVA]

I’m not suggesting they go with randomness. Or be satisfied. I’m just suggesting that it’s week 2 of the season. Of course a loss in April counts just as much as a loss in August or September. But at least they have the calendar on their side right now.  And as mentioned, the rotation injuries have a trickle effect.  At least right now they seem to have the ability to score runs. In the past, being down 2-0;in the 3rd inning seemed like too much to overcome.

[Stratos]

17 minutes ago, Bertz said:

It's not as easy as just throwing money at it

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=all&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=21&stats=rel&qual=1&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pagenum=1

 

Sure but if you acquire the best talent the probability of having good results goes up. A week worth of games is much more random than a month or a year.  Blowing a lead doesn't mean anything but blowing 8-0 is pretty bad and there's more than randomness going on there.  4 different arms couldn't lock it down and Assad was left in too long for an early April game, I assume because the pen has some issues.

Now we're back to relying on 3 supposedly effective late-inning guys because Merryweather is out:  Leiter, Neris, Alzolay.  Same thing as last summer, same thing that wore down those our only reliable 3 arms and led 2 of them to incur injuries and made us miss the playoffs.  And 1 of them is already injured this season.  This is a joke.  We didn't do jack s**t for the pen in the offseason besides replacing Fulmer with Neris and Boxberger with Almonte.  We literally went with the exact same gameplan.

I also want to know what's going on with Swanson? Is he not in season form yet?  We already know he doesn't a groundball over the winter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Yeah they did and we missed the playoffs by 1 game.  The pen was also a mess in Sept.  I'm tired of the pen being in disarray. 

Yes reliever results have some randomness, but having a pen filled with mostly random dudes off the scrap heap is going to lead to more randomness because we have no idea who will have a good or bad year if few guys are inherently, clearly good pitchers.  Mariano Rivera and Trevor Hoffman weren't randomly good, they were money every year.  Cuas, Almonte, Leiter, and Merryweather are just random dudes.  They all have the potential to be good, Smyly and Palencia aren't exactly guys you can count on.  Neris' velo was down 1.5 mph last year so we got him on a sort-of discount. even though he's been only a bit above average most of his career.

Cubs continue to just roll the dice in the pen and let the chips fall because that's how the they see bullpens:  random.  I get the thinking but i'm pretty tired of it, but not much we can do I guess given cheap man Ricketts, and the upper minors doesn't have much in terms of dominant reliever prospects.

I don't expect blowing 8-run leads to be normal, but the entire pen has looked shaky so far and the whole thing is held together with tape like last year.  You want to waste the first month or 2 figuring out which random dudes are going to be effective and you'll blow your playoff chances just like last year too.  Go get some f***king arms instead of this Almonte/Cuas dice-rolling nonsense.

Obviously blowing an 8 run lead isn't going to ease any pre-existing concerns about the bullpen, but before yesterday the Cubs had a middle of the pack bullpen ERA despite being top 5 in bullpen innings.  Are they 1.5 arms short right now?  Probably, and those guys are either on the roster(Merryweather, Assad) or will be a very real option sooner than if this wasn't the 2nd week of April(Brown, Horton).  It's a reasonable opinion to want them to have invested more in the pen, but let's also not oversell the difference in certainty.  There's a number of "real" arms from the market struggling so far too(Hader, Johnson, Alvarado from a quick search of those who are pitching and healthy).

[squally1313]

55 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I also want to know what's going on with Swanson? Is he not in season form yet?  We already know he doesn't a groundball over the winter.

Hahaha complaining about our .991 OPS shortstop who is actually underperforming his xwOBA by 42 points because he has 2 errors in 10 games. Probably still shaking the rust off. 

[Stratos]

2 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Hahaha complaining about our .991 OPS shortstop who is actually underperforming his xwOBA by 42 points because he has 2 errors in 10 games. Probably still shaking the rust off. 

He's the best defensive SS in the game.  He's whiffed on a few balls hit right at him he should have caught.  They have 6 weeks plus Jan/Feb offseason (where he says he doesn't touch a grounder) to shake the rust off and prepare for the season.  We're paying him a gazillion billion dollars.  Once it's Opening Day its go-time.  If a guy makes a bad play he should have made that cost us a game yeah it's fine to criticize him.  Hitting well isn't a license to whiff on balls.

[squally1313]

The Taillon injury forced our best stretch reliever into the rotation, the Steele injury took the next guy who could soak up innings and forced him into the rotation. So now you lose your two best long relief guys AND you have two rotation spots filled with (the same) guys who aren't fully stretched out). And then our best starter got shut down after 4 dominant innings because April weather sucks. You can't really problem solve for something like this in one offseason, and there are too many restrictions on number of pitchers you can carry, options, 40 man roster, etc to just churn through a bunch of AAA journeyman starts. 

Everyone hates their bullpens. Last year we just blamed the manager instead. 

[squally1313]

4 minutes ago, Stratos said:

He's the best defensive SS in the game.  He's whiffed on a few balls hit right at him he should have caught.  They have 6 weeks plus Jan/Feb offseason (where he says he doesn't touch a grounder) to shake the rust off and prepare for the season.  We're paying him a gazillion billion dollars.  Once it's Opening Day its go-time.  If a guy makes a bad play he should have made that cost us a game yeah it's fine to criticize him.  Hitting well isn't a license to whiff on balls.

I'm sorry you think he makes too much money

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, squally1313 said:

I'm sorry you think he makes too much money

I don't.  I just want him to play like it.  He's branded himself as this championship-caliber gamer and he's miffing on routine balls and tanked last Sept so I'd like him to play up to his self-imposed standard.  Sure sh!t happens, but let's go.

[mul21]

18 hours ago, Stratos said:

Now we're back to relying on 3 supposedly effective late-inning guys because Merryweather is out:  Leiter, Neris, Alzolay.  Same thing as last summer, same thing that wore down those our only reliable 3 arms and led 2 of them to incur injuries and made us miss the playoffs.  And 1 of them is already injured this season.  This is a joke.  We didn't do jack s**t for the pen in the offseason besides replacing Fulmer with Neris and Boxberger with Almonte.  We literally went with the exact same gameplan.

If I told you Monday morning that the 6th and 7th starters for the Cubs would give them 9 2/3 shutout innings, especially after what we've seen the Cubs do to the Dodgers and Padres starters the last 5 games, would that alter your perception a bit?  Injuries happen and they're honestly pretty well prepared for it, but when you lose 2 of your likely top 3 pitchers in the first month of the season and only get 4 inning out of a guy you'd have gotten at least 6, maybe 7 IP out of, there's just not much else you can do.  If Cuas continues to struggle and they don't come up with a solution for that, then yeah, there's a legit complaint, but I just don't think you can gripe much right now about the depth when they're 7-4 and have largely gotten decent pitching from backups to the backups.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, mul21 said:

If I told you Monday morning that the 6th and 7th starters for the Cubs would give them 9 2/3 shutout innings, especially after what we've seen the Cubs do to the Dodgers and Padres starters the last 5 games, would that alter your perception a bit?  Injuries happen and they're honestly pretty well prepared for it, but when you lose 2 of your likely top 3 pitchers in the first month of the season and only get 4 inning out of a guy you'd have gotten at least 6, maybe 7 IP out of, there's just not much else you can do.  If Cuas continues to struggle and they don't come up with a solution for that, then yeah, there's a legit complaint, but I just don't think you can gripe much right now about the depth when they're 7-4 and have largely gotten decent pitching from backups to the backups.

They have excellent depth everywhere except in the pen I think.  They have SP who can pitch in the pen and do well, but in terms of pure pen arms there's not much in Iowa.  Injuries are to be expected i agree, including in the rotation, which makes the pen and pen depth weaker if Assad/Brown/Smyly etc have to start instead of being in the pen.   Gotta assume there's always going to be 1 or 2 guys on the shelf.

I think the pen depth is a bit of a concern, though nothing to worry too much about yet.  Edwards Jr and Escobar aren't exactly reassuring.  Wieck has potential, and there may be others.  Maybe some younger guys in minors come out of nowhere to shine.

[Jason Ross]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

They have excellent depth everywhere except in the pen I think.  They have SP who can pitch in the pen and do well, but in terms of pure pen arms there's not much in Iowa.  Injuries are to be expected i agree, including in the rotation, which makes the pen and pen depth weaker if Assad/Brown/Smyly etc have to start instead of being in the pen.   Gotta assume there's always going to be 1 or 2 guys on the shelf.

I think the pen depth is a bit of a concern, though nothing to worry too much about yet.  Edwards Jr and Escobar aren't exactly reassuring.  Wieck has potential, and there may be others.  Maybe some younger guys in minors come out of nowhere to shine.

Does he? I've seen his name mentioned a few times, but there's not much I'm excited about here. He's 32, he's logged 5 innings since 2021, and his K rate is way down. He's a cool story, and a lottery ticket...but the odds are really stacked against Brad Wieck being anything any more.

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Does he? I've seen his name mentioned a few times, but there's not much I'm excited about here. He's 32, he's logged 5 innings since 2021, and his K rate is way down. He's a cool story, and a lottery ticket...but the odds are really stacked against Brad Wieck being anything any more.

Well he's a longshot nobody and agree a lottery ticket like all the older guys in Iowa, but he does have the elite K/9 throughout his whole career.  Yes depends on how he's recovered from the arm injury and layoff.  32 y/o isn't quite old yet to contribute this year.  His K/9 is down but only 5 IP which is meaningless.  I assume he has to build up more and wouldn't be quite ready to come up yet even if he had a good April.

As I said there really isn't much in terms of relievers in Iowa to be very excited about.

Edited April 10, 2024 by Stratos

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Stratos said:

Well he's a longshot nobody and agree a lottery ticket like all the older guys in Iowa, but he does have the elite K/9 throughout his whole career.  Yes depends on how he's recovered from the arm injury and layoff.  32 y/o isn't quite old yet to contribute this year.  His K/9 is down but only 5 IP which is meaningless.  I assume he has to build up more and wouldn't be quite ready to come up yet even if he had a good April.

As I said there really isn't much in terms of relievers in Iowa to be very excited about.

I mean, that was like major injuries and health scares ago. I really don't think there's much here. If something comes of it...great. But I wouldn't say there's much potential other than a cool story. I'm rooting for him, don't get me wrong...but I think putting him in the "has potential" category is a bit  much.