Winter Meetings catch all

[Bertz]

Hoskins is a fantastic 2nd bat so I won't crap on him at all.  Reallllly hoping the cold water on Soto was a "out of respect for Ohtani" sort of deal though.  The problem is that, unless you buy that what Bellinger did last year was for real, there's just such a huge gap in bat quality after Soto.  It's Ohtani/Soto who project to a 150 wRC+ and then a bunch of guys in the 115-120 range.  No one in between unless Bregman or Alonso are available (and most indications are they are not really).

[Jason Ross]

Just now, Bertz said:

Hoskins is a fantastic 2nd bat so I won't crap on him at all.  Reallllly hoping the cold water on Soto was a "out of respect for Ohtani" sort of deal though.  The problem is that, unless you buy that what Bellinger did last year was for real, there's just such a huge gap in bat quality after Soto.  It's Ohtani/Soto who project to a 150 wRC+ and then a bunch of guys in the 115-120 range.  No one in between unless Bregman or Alonso are available (and most indications are they are not really).

Yeah, this is where I'm at. Hoskins, like many of the bats bandied around, are great second bats. But the Cubs need an actual threat at the plate. The Cubs need to aim higher than a Glasnow/Hoskins lead offseason. Those are great 2nd and 3rd moves. But they need to have a real, legitimate, shot here on a player.

[17 Seconds]

levine just retweeted that, so he must be hearing the same.  if the cubs are out on ohtani, they should have a slew of moves coming

[Jason Ross]

Fedde to White Sox 2/$15m

 

That contract sucks ass. His KBO numbers look awesome but Lance Brozowski pointed out how his pitch shape and spin seemed exactly the same as we last saw it. And he was bad.

Edited December 5, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Fedde to White Sox 2/$15m

 

That contract sucks ass.

Jerry Reinsdorf won't see whitesox or the bulls become winners again

[Rcal10]

20 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Fedde to White Sox 2/$15m

 

That contract sucks ass. His KBO numbers look awesome but Lance Brozowski pointed out how his pitch shape and spin seemed exactly the same as we last saw it. And he was bad.

Reinsdorf just wanted to be able to say that up until now the Sox have spent more and signed more guys than the Cubs. 

[gocubs218]

 

[JHBulls]

You just know free agency is going to be a fun time for Cubs fans due to the fact that the White Sox exist. 

Edited December 6, 2023 by JHBulls

[KCCub]

 

[Jason Ross]

Weird. 

[LBiittner]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Weird. 

Does this remove bellinger from yanks?

[Post Count Padder]

Red Sox turned Mookie Betts into Dick Fitts. Can't make this horsefeathers up.

Weird that they traded with each other. Weirder that it's a fairly mediocre return for a player they didn't have to trade.

[Jason Ross]

Just now, LBiittner said:

Does this remove bellinger from yanks?

Might. They were rumored to want to get 2 OF'ers. So likely just one of Bellinger or Soto, but I think that's kind of always what they were shooting for.

[Derwood]

Braves spun Marco Gonzales off to the Pirates

[Jason Ross]

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Wonder if Bruce is thinking in terms of nominal payroll or the total LT payroll.  240-250 in LT payroll is basically table stakes for my expectations, if you're gonna go into the LT then there's no sense in only going in by less than 5 million(which is what 240 million would be), especially with as many high dollar 1-2 year deals that are being considered in FA and trade right now.  If that 240-250 is nominal though, then you're talking more about being close to the 3rd threshold(the draft penalty threshold), which I would've previously assumed was probably only possible with Ohtani.

[Jason Ross]

19 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Wonder if Bruce is thinking in terms of nominal payroll or the total LT payroll.  240-250 in LT payroll is basically table stakes for my expectations, if you're gonna go into the LT then there's no sense in only going in by less than 5 million(which is what 240 million would be), especially with as many high dollar 1-2 year deals that are being considered in FA and trade right now.  If that 240-250 is nominal though, then you're talking more about being close to the 3rd threshold(the draft penalty threshold), which I would've previously assumed was probably only possible with Ohtani.

Exactly my thoughts. This is very dependent on the word "payroll" for me.

[Jason Ross]

I will also say this: I'm a little concerned right now with how the Cubs plan on going over the LT this season. I think we all know the goal will be to reset that number as soon as possible (for better or worse, that's how the Cubs do things). If the team is going to miss on Ohtani (which seems increasingly likely) and will sit out on Yamamoto, it feels likely the Cubs will do so with a host of short term, one year things. Hoskins, Glasnow, maybe Belt, etc, causing all of these spots to once again, need replacing 365 days from today. They will likely struggle to replace these players if they're going to boogey-man the LT next offseason, and while a healthy bump in payroll is likely the only way to improve on an 83 win season with the holes they have, it's a little disconcerting if they're once again having to play the "fill out the roster a bunch" game with more limitations. 

It feels a little too dependent on every prospect the Cubs have hitting. And I say this as "the prospect guy". I love PCA, Horton, Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, etc. But some of these guys aren't going to be good enough.

Edited December 6, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Bertz]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I will also say this: I'm a little concerned right now with how the Cubs plan on going over the LT this season. I think we all know the goal will be to reset that number as soon as possible (for better or worse, that's how the Cubs do things). If the team is going to miss on Ohtani (which seems increasingly likely) and will sit out on Yamamoto, it feels likely the Cubs will do so with a host of short term, one year things. Hoskins, Glasnow, maybe Belt, etc, causing all of these spots to once again, need replacing 365 days from today. They will likely struggle to replace these players if they're going to boogey-man the LT next offseason, and while a healthy bump in payroll is likely the only way to improve on an 83 win season with the holes they have, it's a little disconcerting if they're once again having to play the "fill out the roster a bunch" game with more limitations. 

It feels a little too dependent on every prospect the Cubs have hitting. And I say this as "the prospect guy". I love PCA, Horton, Shaw, Alcantara, Caissie, etc. But some of these guys aren't going to be good enough.

I'm not that worried about it unless Jed pulls down all of Glasnow, Hoskins, and Soto. 

When I looked at payroll at the start of the offseason, it looked like the team was $80-90M under for next year.  And right now the team is slated to lose 34 year old Kyle Hendricks, 36 year old Yan Gomes, and 35 year old Drew Smyly.  That's 5 WAR at 3 fairly low leverage spots on the roster.  If you add Hoskins and Glasnow, that's ~6 more WAR at higher leverage spots.  Now you're at 11 WAR total, and that's a bit tough to do in FA alone.  But with the farm system (both via straight production and trades) does still feel very doable.

Glasnow and Soto though...you're talking north of 15 WAR just to hold steady.  That's suddenly a much tougher beast, and I think would likely require the team to stay above the LT or highly leverage the farm to make up.  I would hope Jed would kick the can down the road and look at resetting in '26 or '27.

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I'm not that worried about it unless Jed pulls down all of Glasnow, Hoskins, and Soto. 

When I looked at payroll at the start of the offseason, it looked like the team was $80-90M under for next year.  And right now the team is slated to lose 34 year old Kyle Hendricks, 36 year old Yan Gomes, and 35 year old Drew Smyly.  That's 5 WAR at 3 fairly low leverage spots on the roster.  If you add Hoskins and Glasnow, that's ~6 more WAR at higher leverage spots.  Now you're at 11 WAR total, and that's a bit tough to do in FA alone.  But with the farm system (both via straight production and trades) does still feel very doable.

Glasnow and Soto though...you're talking north of 15 WAR just to hold steady.  That's suddenly a much tougher beast, and I think would likely require the team to stay above the LT or highly leverage the farm to make up.  I would hope Jed would kick the can down the road and look at resetting in '26 or '27.

I would hope they would, but I don't trust this team to not, either. With the amount of one year deals that seem likely would roll off next year ($25m in Glasnow, probably $16-$18m in Hoskins, probably another contract or two well, also Hendricks..) and the prospect crew the Cubs have who will likely be ready in the next 12 months to take some of these spots (Horton, Brown, Shaw, Caissie, PCA, Alcantara)...it feels like a perfect storm for a reset. Especially when you listen to Hawkins comments about not blocking prospects...with the only "longer term" option being the slightly cheaper, slightly safer, slightly lower upside Shoto Imanaga being the one player who will be here next year from the offseason.

I can admit, I may be being a bit defeatest, but it feels like the Cubs are getting a bit stuck in "second tier offseason" limbo here to an extent. At least personally, it feels like we're barreling towards a third offseason in a row where the Cubs will be truly lacking "elite, impactful long term talent" while having, in theory, lots of money and prospects to spend. I do hope this changes; just because we're missing on, what seems like Ohtani, likely missing on Soto and likely sitting out on Yamamoto, doesn't mean the Cubs can't pull in some talent that might be off the radar and available in a trade that could really shake this up. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've been thinking about this and I do think we probably overrate multi-year certainty a bit as fans.  Look at 2021 v. 2023 and see how much variation there is or players who drop off or jump up in production.  This is especially true for free agents who are older and have more significant dollars attached.  And especially if you are a big market team that is considered a contender, there are always options to fill those gaps productively on the market, Glasnow and Hoskins don't represent a special opportunity in that regard.

Now I would prefer not to have your *best* players constantly be on this treadmill, which is what Soto and Glasnow would be.  But as we discussed with Soto in particular you can't always choose the shape of your upgrades so this may be what this offseason offers.

As an aside, maybe a topic for the Hoskins thread, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he's gonna get a multi-year guarantee after all.

[Jason Ross]

10 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

I've been thinking about this and I do think we probably overrate multi-year certainty a bit as fans.  Look at 2021 v. 2023 and see how much variation there is or players who drop off or jump up in production.  This is especially true for free agents who are older and have more significant dollars attached.  And especially if you are a big market team that is considered a contender, there are always options to fill those gaps productively on the market, Glasnow and Hoskins don't represent a special opportunity in that regard.

Now I would prefer not to have your *best* players constantly be on this treadmill, which is what Soto and Glasnow would be.  But as we discussed with Soto in particular you can't always choose the shape of your upgrades so this may be what this offseason offers.

As an aside, maybe a topic for the Hoskins thread, but I'm starting to wonder if maybe he's gonna get a multi-year guarantee after all.

Yeah. my issue is more in that the Cubs better players would be consistently rolling over and having to fill them in. I'm overall fine with having to always add things; should probably be the norm in today's game. The Cubs are already replacing their best hitter from last year in Bellinger (and while I think there's some smoke and mirrors in Bellingers wRC+, it's unlikely anyone the Cubs add matches that level) and their 2nd best SP (when healthy). I'm not really certain Hoskins gets two guaranteed years, and what I expect is that it'll be a "paper" 2 years (like a Conforto-type opt out situation where it's only going to be multiple years if Hoskins isn't good). So with a Glasnow/Hoskins offseason, you're probably replacing, in 2025, your most talented SP (though Steele may out fWAR him by health, perhaps) and maybe your best hitter again. It becomes a trying task. If they go with Belt as well, it could be 2 of your 4 best hitters, or so, as well. 

It'd be nice to see the Cubs a bit more...settled at the top of the list. As right now it seems as though this is the second offseason in a row that the Cubs are in a pretty decent need of "impactful star types" and will instead fill out a team of one year players, secondary guys and what not. Part of it what's available, which I can understand. But the Cubs also can't continue to do this, IMO, every offseason. I'm all for not blocking prospects with non-premium players, but it'd really be nice for the Cubs to get a truly damn premium player for once (Swanson, while I think is better than I suspected, remains a bit lower than premium for me, still. He's a good player, but doesn't rise to that level. I can understand if someone feels that he does, however).

I've said it a few times, and I'll repeat: I also understand part of this is just, initial, disappointment of once again missing out on Ohtani, missing out out on Soto, sitting out on Yamamoto.

Edited December 6, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Outshined_One]

8 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I've said it a few times, and I'll repeat: I also understand part of this is just, initial, disappointment of once again missing out on Ohtani, missing out out on Soto, sitting out on Yamamoto.

ESPN has an article up this morning regarding how Ohtani's approach to free agency is doing a disservice to baseball due to the secrecy and rumors surrounding his decision.  While I understand he is entitled to do everything he thinks will get him the best contract possible, at the same time, the cloak and dagger has seemingly has spilled over into all of free agency and the trade market.  Nobody has any good information about anything, so we're just stuck with navel gazing and hunting for purported sources who back up our existing worldviews.  I get that past offseasons have been similar, but it feels like the stakes are just so much higher with the best baseball player on the planet hitting free agency in the middle of his prime, along with possible franchise-altering guys like Soto and Yamamoto in the mix..

This approach has made what should have been an exciting and entertaining offseason into something that's abjectly depressing, simply because no one seems to know anything and it's all just guesswork and gut feelings.  The Cubs could be in the lead for all three of those guys, or they could have left the market for each long ago, but we simply just don't know.

[JBears79]

They really need to put in some deadlines for free agency. All other leagues do it. Don't understand why baseball doesn't. The NFL/NBA free agency is incredibly exciting. MLBs used to be. Maybe this is rose tinted glasses but I recall the winter meetings being the most exciting time of FA. Now it's just boring and annoying.

[KCCub]