MLB Trade Rumors Free Agent Predictions

[Bertz]

These predictions, particularly the contract values (moreso than the team destinations), tend to be the most accurate each year.  So pretty wild to see some of these numbers.  Bellinger in particular seems nuts, but then again probably less nuts than predicting Xander Bogaerts would get what he ended up with last year

[Derwood]

Over $500M for Ohtani? Hmmmmm

[WhyCantWeWin]

I want them to splurge on the pitching side of free agency so bad and use the trade market for bats. 

Yamamoto/Matsui/Kimbrel/Moore

And then trade for Soto/Alonso

 

[Tryptamine]

Cubs get mentioned only 3 times, none of it for the elite talent.  Matt Chapman, Iwanaga and Candelario were the only connections. 

[Jason Ross]

I expect the Cubs are better run than to spend 6/$150m on Matt Chapman. Chapman was particularly unimpressive post May 1st (84 wRC+ the rest of the way). 

Per Sharma, Cubs have financial muscle but won't use it to win "multiple FA battles" in what is considered a weak class. Sounds like they probably do their business via trades this offseason.

[Jason Ross]

Quote

While the Cubs will be active this winter, spending big on Counsell shouldn’t be read as a guarantee that they’ll blow out the competition in free agency. Improvements are needed and moves will be made. But Counsell was sold on a team that is rapidly improving and will continue to do so over the course of his contract, not on the idea that the Cubs will build a behemoth in one winter.

The Cubs have a strong MLB roster, a ton of young talent in their farm system on the verge of impacting the big-league team, and significant financial flexibility. While they will flex those financial muscles over the coming years, the expectation isn’t that they’ll be winning multiple bidding wars this winter in what’s largely viewed as a weaker free-agent class, especially on the position player side

- Per Sharma, The Athletic

[Cuzi]

Pumping the brakes early. Never too early to get ahead of the rumors.

[JHBulls]

Spending sensibly should be the name of the game in any offseason. We just witnessed an 84 win team make the World Series, so it’s foolish to just blow a bunch of cash on just anyone because the money is there to be spent.

Edited November 7, 2023 by JHBulls

[Jason Ross]

11 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

Pumping the brakes early. Never too early to get ahead of the rumors.

I'm not entirely sure it's pumping the breaks outside of those who expect the Cubs will throw caution to the wind. I'd be pretty shocked to see the Cubs go in heavy on the FA market. I think they'll have real interest, in say, Yamamoto, but I don't see the Cubs playing the Matt Chapman game, or getting involved in silly-season with Bellinger. I think their big things will be done via trade and not entirely sure that quote suggests otherwise. Just kind of jibes with Rogers from earlier; Cubs will be interested more in trades, less so in mediocre FA market.

[Y2J]

2 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Spending sensibly should be the name of the game in any offseason. We just witnessed an 84 win team make the World Series, so it’s foolish to just blow a bunch of cash on just anyone because the money is there to be spent.

I’ll add to this, we’re the Cubs, and we have the luxury of being able to break the bank for an Ohtani. I think we’re all willing to get at least a little reckless when it comes to a FA like that. For depth, you absolutely spend sensibly and if things get foolish you pass. 

[Y2J]

2 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not entirely sure it's pumping the breaks outside of those who expect the Cubs will throw caution to the wind. I'd be pretty shocked to see the Cubs go in heavy on the FA market. I think they'll have real interest, in say, Yamamoto, but I don't see the Cubs playing the Matt Chapman game, or getting involved in silly-season with Bellinger. I think their big things will be done via trade and not entirely sure that quote suggests otherwise. Just kind of jibes with Rogers from earlier; Cubs will be interested more in trades, less so in mediocre FA market.

The pitching market is solid and I suspect we’ll come away with one of the top names. The corner infield market is incredibly weak. Given that’s where we need to upgrade most,  it makes perfect sense that they’d see trades as the more feasible route to take. 

[Cuzi]

7 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

I'm not entirely sure it's pumping the breaks outside of those who expect the Cubs will throw caution to the wind. I'd be pretty shocked to see the Cubs go in heavy on the FA market. I think they'll have real interest, in say, Yamamoto, but I don't see the Cubs playing the Matt Chapman game, or getting involved in silly-season with Bellinger. I think their big things will be done via trade and not entirely sure that quote suggests otherwise. Just kind of jibes with Rogers from earlier; Cubs will be interested more in trades, less so in mediocre FA market.

There has been more smoke around the Cubs and Imanaga. He more likely fits the profile in that hes going to get a modest deal while every other big fish is wooing Yamamoto.

[Jason Ross]

22 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

There has been more smoke around the Cubs and Imanaga. He more likely fits the profile in that hes going to get a modest deal while every other big fish is wooing Yamamoto.

Has there been more smoke on Imanaga? Because I haven't really seen it (which isn't to say it's not there, but I just haven't seen it). The Cubs were sending Jed Hoyer specifically to Japan to scout Yamamoto. Maybe I'm missing something, but it feels like about the same amount of smoke around all of them.

 

Edited November 7, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Cuzi]

All 30 teams have scouted these pitchers. I dont recall anyone outside of Wrigleyville suggesting the Cubs as a destination for Yamamoto. The same cant be said for Imanaga.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It only takes one team but given the situations at a lot of clubs(a couple big markets stepping back, TV money gone poof for a bunch of others) and a weaker class I'm not expecting quite as much of a frenzy as last offseason.  I'm definitely not expecting most of these durations that they have for those top guys, Bellinger in particular feels like some real 'congratulations on saying the biggest number' nonsense.

[Bertz]

Let's take at least the AAVs here as gospel.  A couple example ways to spend roughly $80M (the realistic upper bound for payroll) this winter:

- Juan Soto ($35M, trade), Shota Imanaga ($17M), Rhys Hoskins ($18M), Jordan Hicks ($10M)

- Pete Alonso ($22M, trade), Yoshi Yamamoto ($25M), Jeimer Candelario ($17.5M), Yuki Matsui ($8M), Liam Hendriks, ($6M)

- Tyler Glasnow ($25M, trade), Josh Hader ($18.3M), Brandon Belt ($15M), Mitch Garver ($13M), Jorge Polanco ($10.5M, trade)

Jed should be able to add quite a bit of talent this winter.  Even if available payroll is closer to $60M it just requires less name brand options in the bullpen and/or a bit more heavy lifting via trade.

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

Cubs get mentioned only 3 times, none of it for the elite talent.  Matt Chapman, Iwanaga and Candelario were the only connections. 

Yuki Matsui too.

This is one of those exercises where I feel like they look at each player and predict a landing spot rather than looking at all 30 teams and trying to piece together an offseason for each of them.  Or they just assume we go big with Soto and/or other trades.

[Cuzi]

14 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Yuki Matsui too.

This is one of those exercises where I feel like they look at each player and predict a landing spot rather than looking at all 30 teams and trying to piece together an offseason for each of them.  Or they just assume we go big with Soto and/or other trades.

Its more like predicting trends. The Cubs havent shown to be a player in the elite market, so why predict elite FAs to the Cubs? Yamamoto is probably the most realistic of the "elite" FAs to predict as a Cubs signing, but we are still talking about a record setting contract for the Cubs on a guy that hasn't thrown a single pitch in MLB.

The guys they predicted as Cubs all fit inside the Cubs trend.

Edited November 7, 2023 by Cuzi

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, Cuzi said:

Its more like predicting trends. The Cubs havent shown to be a player in the elite market, so why predict elite FAs to the Cubs? Yamamoto is probably the most realistic of the "elite" FAs to predict as a Cubs signing, but we are still talking about a recording setting contract for the Cubs on a guy that hasn't thrown a single pitch in MLB.

The guys they predicted as Cubs all fit inside the Cubs trend.

And yet they have the Giants in on Bellinger, Yamamoto,  Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Bader.

 

 

 

[Cuzi]

Just now, Tryptamine said:

And yet they have the Giants in on Bellinger, Yamamoto,  Montgomery, Matt Chapman and Bader.

The Giants agreed to sign Correa to $350M before they backed out after the physical.

[CubinNY]

Whoever Anthony is has the Giants committing almost a billion dollars to FA this year. 

Edited November 7, 2023 by CubinNY

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

Whoever Anthony is has the Giants committing almost a billion dollars to FA this year. 

Yeah, I'm having a hard time taking that list seriously.

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Tryptamine said:

Yeah, I'm having a hard time taking that list seriously.

The main thing I got from the list is just how crappy the FA's are this year.

[Tryptamine]

7 minutes ago, Tim said:

The main thing I got from the list is just how crappy the FA's are this year.

I think the pitching FAs are fine, but yeah the bats suck or come with huge question marks. Ohtani is a stud, Bellinger had a big year but coming off 2 awful ones and statcast is calling for regression. Matt Chapman was absolutely awful the last 2/3s of 2023. Then after that you fall into the midtier guys or guys who are looking for one last 1 or 2 year deal before retirement. 

[Outshined_One]

Imanaga and Matsui would go a long, long way towards stabilizing and improving the rotation and pen without breaking the bank and costing draft picks.