Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

A while back biitner asked a question about how many chances a 3rd baseman get a game. Turns out, not that many. So knowing that and knowing Madrigal plays up because of a weaker arm, is it possible that Morel, playing back more because of a stronger arm, may actually get to more balls than Madrigal would have? Sure he will make more errors, but is it possible because he makes more plays on balls Madrigal has no chance at, he doesn’t hurt them that much at 3rd? 

For fWAR, a below average defensive 3B is worth about -5 runs per season compared to an average 3b.  A bad 3b would be about -10 runs compared to average.

Edited January 31, 2024 by Stratos

[LBiittner]

Haven't heard much about our catching situation, other than the AAAA roster-fill signed for ST purposes. 

Gomes is the obvious starter. Amaya will backup plus an occasional start at DH. Do you guys still see Amaya starting at catcher once a week plus day games following night starts made by Gomes? 

Should Jed be checking in on young or veteran catchers for a flip in return for some of our youngsters? 

[Post Count Padder]

Wandy Peralta had a FIP over 5 last season and the Padres gave him a 4 year deal with THREE opt outs. What's even the point?

[Post Count Padder]

53 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Haven't heard much about our catching situation, other than the AAAA roster-fill signed for ST purposes. 

Gomes is the obvious starter. Amaya will backup plus an occasional start at DH. Do you guys still see Amaya starting at catcher once a week plus day games following night starts made by Gomes? 

Should Jed be checking in on young or veteran catchers for a flip in return for some of our youngsters? 

I assumed Gomes and Amaya would be the tandem all season and Jorge Alfaro is a pretty capable 3rd catcher down in Iowa, unless he has an opt-out clause. I wouldn't be against adding another backstop but I'm fine with the depth chart as it stands. Hey maybe we can try Morel at catcher!

[Bertz]

40 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Haven't heard much about our catching situation, other than the AAAA roster-fill signed for ST purposes. 

Gomes is the obvious starter. Amaya will backup plus an occasional start at DH. Do you guys still see Amaya starting at catcher once a week plus day games following night starts made by Gomes? 

Should Jed be checking in on young or veteran catchers for a flip in return for some of our youngsters? 

I'd guess it's closer to a 50/50 split going forward.  Ross broke in Amaya very gingerly, but that's because he was big into the softer factors of catching and Miguel joined the big league club mid year.  Hendricks (who calls his own game) and the kids (who Amaya had worked with in the minors) got quite a bit of Amaya starts.  I expect in 2024 as a from the jump member of the MLB team I don't expect him to get fairly even billing behind the plate.

I don't think there's a ton of upside in grabbing an alternative to Amaya either.  Catching prospects (and honestly veterans too) are notoriously fickle because of the rigors of the job.  Amaya looks like an above average bat (by catcher standards), an above average framer, and got fairly glowing reviews for his leadership behind the plate last year.  The one bugaboo last year was his throwing.  That was actually a reported strength coming up through the minors, so there's some hope that another offseason removed from Tommy John surgery helps there.

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, Post Count Padder said:

Wandy Peralta had a FIP over 5 last season and the Padres gave him a 4 year deal with THREE opt outs. What's even the point?

I really get the vibe that Preller doesn't expect to be the GM in San Diega in 3 years and so all of these ludicrously long contracts are a "not my problem" deal.

[Bobson Dugnutt]

Trey Cabbage is a 10/10 name. Unfortunately, he missed his calling as the bassist in a ska band.

https://twitter.com/astros/status/1752788258298147327?s=20

[LBiittner]

12 minutes ago, Bobson Dugnutt said:

Trey Cabbage is a 10/10 name. Unfortunately, he missed his calling as the bassist in a ska band.

https://twitter.com/astros/status/1752788258298147327?s=20

Cabbage was added to stros roster after Delcan Cronin was designated. Delcan is son of Keith Cronin, played with REO Speedwagon.

Just worthless information my silly brain retains. 

[CubinNY]

21 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Cabbage was added to stros roster after Delcan Cronin was designated. Delcan is son of Keith Cronin, played with REO Speedwagon.

Just worthless information my silly brain retains. 

Take it on the run, baby!

[thawv]

38 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Cabbage was added to stros roster after Delcan Cronin was designated. Delcan is son of Keith Cronin, played with REO Speedwagon.

Just worthless information my silly brain retains. 

Kevin Cronin  😃

[chibears55]

On 1/30/2024 at 4:06 PM, Bertz said:

If the pen had another closer caliber arm it would be a legitimate impact unit IMO.  Aiming a little lower, I wouldn't hate a boring-ish (but still quality) middle relief lefty like a Scott Alexander.  Not an absolute necessity with the guys already in house but I think it'd help.  

 

I'd like for them to get a closer, this way they can move Alzolay to set up, but it likely theyre looking to add a needed LH for late inning relief 

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

Kevin Cronin  😃

Saw them at Poplar Creek in 78’. Was next to Kevin Cronin’s mom in the front row. 

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, username said:

Curious, why do you want Alzolay to be the setup man and not the closer?  

I had the same question. Honestly I have no idea what some people see with Alzolay that make them think the Cubs have better options. 

[Bertz]

This is obviously meaningless, but like we're a couple hours away from February so whatever

 

[Stratos]

Question:  let's say Morel has a poor year defensively at 3B.  What should they do with him then?

The options are trade him, put him at 1B or DH, try him at 2B and Nico at 3B (unlikely), or just live with the bad glove at some position like 3B until another prospect is ready (e.g. Shaw).  If he can't make the throws from 3B then he's a 2B, 1B, or corner OF.  The throws from SS aren't much different most of the time and are longer from deep in the hole.

I'd say 1B might be the best bet, or a trade.  I imagine he'd be better defensively at 1B than Busch or Mervis/McGeary, those guys can DH.  His offense will always have a certain ceiling (albeit still above average) with that K% and thus continue to have a mediocre AVG/OBP unless he makes a significant adjustment to his approach.

[squally1313]

17 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Question:  let's say Morel has a poor year defensively at 3B.  What should they do with him then?

The options are trade him, put him at 1B or DH, try him at 2B and Nico at 3B (unlikely), or just live with the bad glove at some position like 3B until another prospect is ready (e.g. Shaw).  If he can't make the throws from 3B then he's a 2B, 1B, or corner OF.  The throws from SS aren't much different most of the time and are longer from deep in the hole.

I'd say 1B might be the best bet, or a trade.  I imagine he'd be better defensively at 1B than Busch or Mervis/McGeary, those guys can DH.  His offense will always have a certain ceiling (albeit still above average) with that K% and thus continue to have a mediocre AVG/OBP unless he makes a significant adjustment to his approach.

1. Just because he gets reps at third doesn't mean he'd be a good first baseman. If that's the case, then we can no longer give Bellinger a point vs Chapman in the 'position versatility' argument for playing first base
2. The rest seems incredibly dependent on the bat. Can he increase the walk rate, decrease the K rate, or validate the 40 HR/year pace he was on last year? If so (ie: if he improves on last year), he can DH, play first, start the 'how valuable is Hoerner in a trade' conversations. If he's a 115ish wRC bat (higher than all of his projections) without a defensive position....that's a DH that starts 100 games while letting the normal starters take 'breaks' there. And honestly trade bait. If he's worse offensively? Get what you can, emergency backup, etc. 

[Stratos]

26 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

1. Just because he gets reps at third doesn't mean he'd be a good first baseman. If that's the case, then we can no longer give Bellinger a point vs Chapman in the 'position versatility' argument for playing first base
2. The rest seems incredibly dependent on the bat. Can he increase the walk rate, decrease the K rate, or validate the 40 HR/year pace he was on last year? If so (ie: if he improves on last year), he can DH, play first, start the 'how valuable is Hoerner in a trade' conversations. If he's a 115ish wRC bat (higher than all of his projections) without a defensive position....that's a DH that starts 100 games while letting the normal starters take 'breaks' there. And honestly trade bait. If he's worse offensively? Get what you can, emergency backup, etc. 

Well I assume he'd be at least better at 1B because the throws seem to be his issue, and likely better than Busch/Morel because of the range and athleticism and lack of throws.

Good point re: Bellinger.  But we don't know yet if Morel can handle 3B well enough to play there or not, or 1B for that matter.

Interesting to note that ZiPS has Madrigal at 1.9 WAR next year over only 371 PA's and 86 games based on a very good defense and a 94 wRC+, which I think he's capable of because with only a .280 AVG, which shouldn't be too hard for him with his contact %.  That's a 3 WAR pace over a full season.  Morel could probably reach about 2.5 WAR if he's not a DH assuming below average defense like 2022 if he hits like last year.

Edited February 1, 2024 by Stratos

[thawv]

13 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

Saw them at Poplar Creek in 78’. Was next to Kevin Cronin’s mom in the front row. 

Poplar Creek!!!  I saw Rodney Dangerfield there.  I've seen REO 14 times

[Rob]

Madrigal is 5'8"

You don't have to be tall to be a good 1B, but it does help an awful lot. Of recent 1B who are below 6' tall, only Carlos Santana has a particularly positive defensive reputation. And he's 5'11.

I just think Madrigal is going to have a hard time reigning in the occasional errant throw.

[CubinNY]

I saw a story on the Rockies moving Bryant to 1st. Sorry, not about the Cubs, but interesting nonetheless. 

[thawv]

13 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I saw a story on the Rockies moving Bryant to 1st. Sorry, not about the Cubs, but interesting nonetheless. 

He'll still figure out a way to get hurt.

[squally1313]

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/projection-fight-club-2024/

Some more discussion about Zips projections and the other options out there, with a few Cubs names (Busch, Chapman, Madrigal, Imanaga) showing up on the 'most controversial' lists.

Separately, there's a blurb about Tony Kemp that makes me think he's an intriguing bench option, though I don't think we have the space for him at the moment. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

15 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Separately, there's a blurb about Tony Kemp that makes me think he's an intriguing bench option, though I don't think we have the space for him at the moment. 

You're gonna make Mastrobuoni cry

[Bertz]

10 hours ago, Stratos said:

Question:  let's say Morel has a poor year defensively at 3B.  What should they do with him then?

The options are trade him, put him at 1B or DH, try him at 2B and Nico at 3B (unlikely), or just live with the bad glove at some position like 3B until another prospect is ready (e.g. Shaw).  If he can't make the throws from 3B then he's a 2B, 1B, or corner OF.  The throws from SS aren't much different most of the time and are longer from deep in the hole.

I'd say 1B might be the best bet, or a trade.  I imagine he'd be better defensively at 1B than Busch or Mervis/McGeary, those guys can DH.  His offense will always have a certain ceiling (albeit still above average) with that K% and thus continue to have a mediocre AVG/OBP unless he makes a significant adjustment to his approach.

I think Morel's trade bait unless/until his bat reaches an impact level or he finds a home defensively.  Right now there's room on the roster for him, but by August if PCA and Caissie aren't already up they are likely pounding on the door, and odds are one of the kids opening at Tennessee goes supernova and is doing the same.  We'll also generally know by then if Busch is the goods.  If Morel hasn't locked down everyday playing time outside of DH by then you've gotta cash him in as a trade chip with a team that can use him at 2B or in the COF.

[squally1313]

6 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

You're gonna make Mastrobuoni cry

Kinda forgot he could play outfield too, good call.