Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

6 minutes ago, SABR Gamer said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

"There’s still a lot of winter to go, but ZiPS sees the Cubs as most likely finishing in the 83-88 win range or thereabouts."

12 days ago. So, this is without adding Bellinger or anyone else they still might add, and they likely will add him. If you ever expected the Cubs to have a powerhouse NL favorite roster, you were never being realistic with yourself. Even if they had gotten Soto and Ohtani, they still wouldn't have been NL favorites. The Braves project for over 100 wins, and the Dodgers are right behind them. 

Your 1st paragraph gives me hope, but the 2nd paragraph sends me scrambling for valium

[SABR Gamer]

1 minute ago, LBiittner said:

Your 1st paragraph gives me hope, but the 2nd paragraph sends me scrambling for valium

I added a third paragraph to give you a little more hope. 

[LBiittner]

Just now, SABR Gamer said:

You're the same age as my father, and like him, you shouldn't be letting sports stress you out anymore. They aren't important enough. Take care of yourself, and enjoy whatever happens. 

It's the winter and I don't ice fish.

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, SABR Gamer said:

You're the same age as my father, and like him, you shouldn't be letting sports stress you out anymore. They aren't important enough. Take care of yourself, and enjoy whatever happens. 

Speaking as someone who is 63, 65 isnt that old. We don’t have to sit around and drool in the corner. It is fine to have passion for the team. Yes, biitner may be a bit overboard with his frustration. But I am pretty sure it isn’t affecting his overall health. Whether you are in your 20’s or 60’s or even older, you shouldn’t let baseball stress you out. 

[Rcal10]

24 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

The NL Central is so weak that any tiny move basically puts you in contention, which is why I'm so frustrated.  Spend a little money, make a serious trade or two and you're in the driver's seat for the next 4-5 years instead of putzing around trying to show how fiscally responsible you are while waiting (hoping) that prospects and question marks will deliver amazing results.

 

Agreed. But until they lose out on Bellinger , I am still optimistic. And, for that matter, I would be ok if they didn’t sign Bellinger if they did make some other deal for an everyday solid middle of the line up bat. And they might. I still like Naylor, tbh. I think the team sets up nicely if they signed Bellinger and traded for Naylor. Either Busch or Morel play 3rd and the other is the DH. Bring Madrigal in the game late, for defense. If they discover neither could handle it during spring training they have to trade Morel. Either get someone who can play 3rd or just put Madrigal there and get the best young pitcher you can for Morel. Sign a pen arm and go into the season. 

[SABR Gamer]

24 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Speaking as someone who is 63, 65 isnt that old. We don’t have to sit around and drool in the corner. It is fine to have passion for the team. Yes, biitner may be a bit overboard with his frustration. But I am pretty sure it isn’t affecting his overall health. Whether you are in your 20’s or 60’s or even older, you shouldn’t let baseball stress you out. 

Oh, I completely agree it's not that old, and my post didn't do a good job of expressing that. I just meant he's old enough to have the wisdom that it doesn't matter enough to let it bother you, like my father. Hell, I've even reached that point for the most part in my early 30s. Fandom is a scam. An extremely one-sided, toxic relationship born from tribalism. Satisfied individuals make worse consumers, and American sports are designed to leave almost all of us perpetually dissatisfied. 

Edited January 24, 2024 by SABR Gamer

[Rcal10]

29 minutes ago, SABR Gamer said:

Oh, I completely agree it's not that old, and my post didn't do a good job of expressing that. I just meant he's old enough to have the wisdom that it doesn't matter enough to let it bother you, like my father. Hell, I've even reached that point for the most part in my early 30s. Fandom is a scam. An extremely one-sided, toxic relationship born from tribalism. Satisfied individuals make worse consumers, and American sports are designed to leave almost all of us perpetually dissatisfied. 

I love the game and the Cubs. I know they don’t love us back, but I am fine with that. Made peace with it long ago. I am probably one of those dumb fans that spends money on them good or bad. I have season tickets to all 81 games. Up until 2 years ago I owned 2 on my own. But I moved to Arizona so I now share my seats with 2 others. So I have 27 games. I get back to Chicago for probably 8 games a year and this year I will see them in KC and Cleveland. If that makes me a fool, so be it. It is something I enjoy. I probably watch 150+ of their games as well. If I’m not there I am watching on tv. 

[ToolDRT]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

Nope and yep

I like the honestly in your responses. I feel as frustrated as you right now. So know you’re not alone. Seems like we could have had just a passable offseason and been in front of the rest of the division. This offseason (thus far) is somewhere under my lowest expectations. 

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, ToolDRT said:

I like the honestly in your responses. I feel as frustrated as you right now. So know you’re not alone. Seems like we could have had just a passable offseason and been in front of the rest of the division. This offseason (thus far) is somewhere under my lowest expectations. 

Agreed……SO FAR! 

[Tryptamine]

1 hour ago, SABR Gamer said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2024-zips-projections-chicago-cubs/

"There’s still a lot of winter to go, but ZiPS sees the Cubs as most likely finishing in the 83-88 win range or thereabouts."

12 days ago. So, this is without adding Bellinger or anyone else they still might add, and they likely will add him. If you ever expected the Cubs to have a powerhouse NL favorite roster, you were never being realistic with yourself. Even if they had gotten Soto and Ohtani, they still wouldn't have been NL favorites. The Braves project for over 100 wins, and the Dodgers are right behind them. 

The good thing is you don't need to be the favorite to win the World Series (it certainly helps, but this isn't the NBA). Baseball is a bit of a crapshoot, just get in the playoffs and spin the wheel. 

There's a difference between expecting them to be the best team in the NL and having expectations that they'll try and do more than sneak into the playoffs via one of the worst divisions in baseball.

[ToolDRT]

23 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Agreed……SO FAR! 

Yes sir. There’s still a path to a decent offseason. But this is why I don’t love the approach of waiting and waiting by Jed. Eventually, you’ll run out of options that actually move the needle. I don’t know. I think Tom and Jed are just a very awful combination. 

[SABR Gamer]

1 hour ago, Rcal10 said:

I love the game and the Cubs. I know they don’t love us back, but I am fine with that. Made peace with it long ago. I am probably one of those dumb fans that spends money on them good or bad. I have season tickets to all 81 games. Up until 2 years ago I owned 2 on my own. But I moved to Arizona so I now share my seats with 2 others. So I have 27 games. I get back to Chicago for probably 8 games a year and this year I will see them in KC and Cleveland. If that makes me a fool, so be it. It is something I enjoy. I probably watch 150+ of their games as well. If I’m not there I am watching on tv. 

I still love baseball, but I don't let one team's success or failure determine how I interact with the sport anymore. I also still root for the Cubs, but I'm done with living or dying according to their results. I used to refuse to watch any games after the Cubs were eliminated. Now, I care a hell of a lot less and still enjoy the great baseball being played after they are out. I don't see anything wrong with being a passionate observer of something you love, I just don't see the point in letting it make you miserable, and Biittner seemed like he was heading down that path. 

Edited January 25, 2024 by SABR Gamer

[Stratos]

9 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Jed might be saving money, mancini signs with Miami. 

How does that work?  Honestly don't know.

[Stratos]

10 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I hate to say it, but Jed would have to pull off a minor miracle to get this team up to where it needs to be if he misses on Bellinger at this point. 

A good thing is that with just under 40m to spend we can be pretty darn confident that Jed at least wants one of the top 4 Boras players left, and probably Bellinger.  But we don't know if he'll get him.  Jed should be happy to get just market value for Bellinger from Boras, if he's looking for good value signing it's probably not happening.

[Stratos]

7 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Bertz, you have to admit when Jed came out with guns blazing by stealing Craig counsell, you had visions of grandeur sprinkled in with expectations of katy-bar-the-door spending like we've never experienced here in Chitown. 

Signing Counsell should have been sign #1 that they wanted to be more like the Brewers than the Dodgers.

How much they spent over the LT during the last window with the previous core is about the most we can ever hope for with this ownership.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

Yes sir. There’s still a path to a decent offseason. But this is why I don’t love the approach of waiting and waiting by Jed. Eventually, you’ll run out of options that actually move the needle. I don’t know. I think Tom and Jed are just a very awful combination. 

Jed's choice is to wait or give Boras exactly what he wants, which is almost certainly a pretty stupid contract.  Or sign a guy like Keirmeyer or Bader and just not try to get one of these Boras guys?  Which do you prefer? 

[Randall Simon]

5 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

I like the honestly in your responses. I feel as frustrated as you right now. So know you’re not alone. Seems like we could have had just a passable offseason and been in front of the rest of the division. This offseason (thus far) is somewhere under my lowest expectations. 

I've grown to expect to be underwhelmed by the Jed/Ricketts combo. 

[muntjack]

I disagree that signing Counsell indicated anything other than,  "we want the best manager in baseball".  

They could have taken any path afterward and it would have been the right move.  

[thawv]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

How does that work?  Honestly don't know.

If he makes the major league team, Miami pays the minimum salary, and Ricketts pays the rest.  It's about a 750 k savings for the Cubs.

[CubinNY]

If the Cubs come away from the offseason with essentially the same team on paper and win more games, how much credit do you give the manager? How much is variance? Because it looks like that is what they intend to do. 

[BigbadB]

8 hours ago, Stratos said:

Jed's choice is to wait or give Boras exactly what he wants, which is almost certainly a pretty stupid contract.  Or sign a guy like Keirmeyer or Bader and just not try to get one of these Boras guys?  Which do you prefer? 

Yeah, I just don't know what you would expect Hoyer to do differently here. Boras has no mystery teams. His leverage is at an all time low. He's exchanged numbers with Hoyer and there is no other team willing to go that high, but he still needs to get the best value for his client as he possibly can. I'm sure he's turning over rocks, but very few teams have a couple hundred mill sitting around collecting dust and a big hole in CF to fill. So it's Cubs or something even worse. Boras isn't ready to tell his client he isn't getting anymore blood from that turnip, so he might as well sign. His only ounce of leverage is the pressure of time. Hoyer doesn't seem bothered by the time issue, as he still feels Boras is being unreasonable with his demands. 

Sometime before or during Spring Training, they will find a common ground so that Boras can look better to his client and call it a "win" and the Cubs can be happy the got the best deal they could to bring Bellinger back. 

I was hoping to see Chapman signed, too, but there's been absolutely no fire there. Does he even have a market anywhere? Are other teams just doing the Hoyer "wait and see" approach, is there genuinely no one showing any interest in Chapman? I don't read the tabloids, just the headlines. It's probably already too painful for Jed to try to work with Boras on Bellinger, why stick yourself in the other eye with a sharp object? Probably because you need a good team to compete in this league.

[Stratos]

8 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

If the Cubs come away from the offseason with essentially the same team on paper and win more games, how much credit do you give the manager? How much is variance? Because it looks like that is what they intend to do. 

Depends why we think they underperformed their Pythag W/L list year.   Some of that is distribution luck, some of it is poor high leverage pen performance.

If they get Bellinger i think they're a slightly better team on paper than OD last year.... hopefully.   More depth via prospects at upper levels.  

[mul21]

1 hour ago, CubinNY said:

If the Cubs come away from the offseason with essentially the same team on paper and win more games, how much credit do you give the manager? How much is variance? Because it looks like that is what they intend to do. 

I think there are entirely too many variables to render any kind of accurate opinion on that at this point.  Health (Stro vs Imanaga IP for instance), Steele coming off a career high IP, will Suzuki be the guy he was in the 2nd half all season, is Busch the vast improvement over the 1B amalgam we had last year, does Morel develop more, is Taillon more in line with expectations of when he signed.  I think that's a process you can go through at the end of the season and given a similar set of circumstances, I'll be surprised if this team (assuming a Bellinger signing happens) isn't 4-8 games better than last year.

[Rcal10]

I am beginning to think a short deal like the original Correa deal might be in play for Bellinger. Maybe 3/$80M with opt outs. Let him test the market again next year if he does well. But, couldn’t they do something like they did with Imanaga? Maybe $27M years 1-2 with them having the ability to turn it into a 7/$182 after year 2 and 3. Maybe if they don’t do that it goes to a 7/$161 automatically but Bellinger could opt out after year 2 and 3. Isn’t that similar to Imanaga? Unless Bellinger falls flat he gets 2 years and $54M and can reenter the FA pool at 30 without a QO attached. Worst case scenario for him is 7/$161. 

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I think there are entirely too many variables to render any kind of accurate opinion on that at this point.  Health (Stro vs Imanaga IP for instance), Steele coming off a career high IP, will Suzuki be the guy he was in the 2nd half all season, is Busch the vast improvement over the 1B amalgam we had last year, does Morel develop more, is Taillon more in line with expectations of when he signed.  I think that's a process you can go through at the end of the season and given a similar set of circumstances, I'll be surprised if this team (assuming a Bellinger signing happens) isn't 4-8 games better than last year.

I think Bellinger and a serviceable pen arm (7-8 inning guy) puts this team in the 83-87 win range. If they added another bat (Belt, Polanco, etc…) I could see favorite in the central and an upper 80’s to 90 win team. That extra bat adds length to the line up. But then (for best results) either Morel, Busch or, Polanco (if he is the add) has to play 3rd. If not they are extra depth, which is also good.