Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

Here's how you can break Boras:  a big market team like the Cubs waits for any substantial Boras FA to sign with another team late in the offseason (e.g. after mid-January) that they never had any intention on signing and make a fake leak to a major journalist that they had offered e.g. 30 million more than the winning bid the player actually signed for (a total lie) but were unwilling to wait out Boras because they wanted to get their main roster pieces ready for ST.  This will make the player upset at Boras for leaving a lot of money on the table by waiting too long.  Other Boras clients will notice this and in future offseasons some Boras clients will insist that he not wait late to sign.

If Boras is going to continually plant lies in the media to gain negotiation leverage then the Cubs should do the same.

[Stratos]

OH MY horsefeathers GOD A BORAS CLIENT IS ABOUT TO BE SIGNED.  Paxton to Dodgers, not inked yet.

 

Edited January 23, 2024 by Stratos

[Irrelevant Dude]

16 minutes ago, Stratos said:

make a fake leak to a major journalist that they had offered e.g. 30 million more than the winning bid the player actually signed for (a total lie) but were unwilling to wait out Boras because they wanted to get their main roster pieces ready for ST

You don't think the player might, I don't know, ask Boras whether that actually happened?

[Jason Ross]

7 hours ago, Rob said:

It's largely meaningless, I imagine.

All parties involved know he's getting moved at the deadline to a team in need of bullpen help. Whether he's closer now or then or whenever is irrelevant to the issue of his trade value.

I would guess that's true. It's hard to determine his market fully, but with a few weeks left, if his ultimate goal was pitching for a true contending team, the Pirates weren't an obvious choice and you'd have to figure a team higher up the perceived pecking order would have offered a contract. Maybe no one was interested. He did sign in KC last year, but that was more clear as a rebound. Thought with his trade value last year a more contending team would have come in. This likely gets him on a contender by July, but with little control over whom.

 

Who knows. Mostly just spit balling. Suspect you're right, ultimately, and he doesn't care if he sets up or not.

[CubinNY]

6 hours ago, The20thK said:

With everyone so concerned with owners making profits, why not just regulate the whole thing? If you’re gonna mandate what an owner must do, why not just regulate tickets prices, merchandise prices, tv prices etc? 
 

Bring in a salary cap. Tie a players pay to his performance, tie an owners profit to the success of the team. 
 

or leave it alone and let the free market work itself out. 

You are almost getting it. 

Almost 

[Rcal10]

7 hours ago, Stratos said:

I know what they're doing, it looks like they're trying to stay under the LT line.  You don't do that with a 10.5m reliever.

So far all they've done is signed the cheapest "quality" SP available and filled 1B with a rookie at league minimum plus signed a reliever who had a 5.02 ERA last season.  Almonte agreed to a 1.9m deal to avoid arbitration in Sept., looks like he's meant as one of our new pen "upgrades".

They'll probably sign one of Chapman/Bellinger, add a decent reliever, maybe another usable bat that isn't too expensive, and slide under the LT again.  I hope i'm wrong but it's not like we haven't seen this act before.  All this hot air about the Cubs going to be a big spender the rest of the offseason is probably just Boras spreading his usual nonsense for leverage.

If you're suggesting they stay under the first LT line, they can’t even do what you just said. They have $38M to that line. They will hold back at least $5M for deadline deals. So that leaves $33M. How are they getting Bellinger ($25M) a pen arm and another usable bat for $33M? If the pen arm they sign is under $5M and the bat under $5M they might as well just stay with what they have.  No one at that price moves the needle, IMO. I think (hope) the plan is to go over the first line but not the second. That gives them $20M more. Now a pen arm can be $7M $10M and a bat at $16-$20M. If they don’t go over the first line then what they did at the deadline last year was terrible FO work. They should have went over for another relief pitcher which would have likely helped them gain a playoff spot. Not going over now makes that decision even worse than it was at that time. 

[LBiittner]

Wholly Frijoles, baseball writers are starving for something to write about.

NBC sports is claiming only one roadblock is holding up a Belli reunion with the Cubs. They predict the holdup is dollars. 

LMFAO 

[squally1313]

Can someone explain the big like, existential problem of free agents signing later in the offseason, given that pretty much all of the contracts so far have fallen right in line with the projections made by everyone back at the beginning of the offseason? Like, besides it being 'boring' or whatever for the thousands of people who obsess over this daily (myself included), maybe this particular group of dudes just aren't in as much of a hurry to sign a contract?

[LBiittner]

In other big cub news to report, Kerry wood is selling his Winnetka home.

Stay tuned for news from realtor.com to see where Yency Almonte leases his condo

[LBiittner]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Can someone explain the big like, existential problem of free agents signing later in the offseason, given that pretty much all of the contracts so far have fallen right in line with the projections made by everyone back at the beginning of the offseason? Like, besides it being 'boring' or whatever for the thousands of people who obsess over this daily (myself included), maybe this particular group of dudes just aren't in as much of a hurry to sign a contract?

Sportrac projects Belli signing with the Cubs for 5yr at 22.5m per.  That's Heyward money 💰 haha

 

[Rob]

19 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Can someone explain the big like, existential problem of free agents signing later in the offseason, given that pretty much all of the contracts so far have fallen right in line with the projections made by everyone back at the beginning of the offseason? Like, besides it being 'boring' or whatever for the thousands of people who obsess over this daily (myself included), maybe this particular group of dudes just aren't in as much of a hurry to sign a contract?

Drawn out contract negotiations defy our societal expectations of instant gratification.

But instead of focusing on our issues, we try to extend these problems into the grander arguments about overpaid athletes, agents, and the struggle of labor against the bourgeoisie (despite it being a question of millionaires v. billionaires).

[Bertz]

27 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Can someone explain the big like, existential problem of free agents signing later in the offseason, given that pretty much all of the contracts so far have fallen right in line with the projections made by everyone back at the beginning of the offseason? Like, besides it being 'boring' or whatever for the thousands of people who obsess over this daily (myself included), maybe this particular group of dudes just aren't in as much of a hurry to sign a contract?

No you see the players are going to ignore the $2 billion that's already been spent on free agents and the other half billion still in the hopper and go to war because the vibes are off.

[CubinNY]

I'm guessing the hangup with Bellinger is years vs. dollars. I wonder what it would take for Bellinger to accept a shorter contract. 

As to the other stuff, It's a unique year. Ohtani and the other high-profile Japanese players, the way Boras likes to operate, and the fact that he has many remaining players. I don't question his results, but it leads to many episodes of pearl-clutching by us fans. 

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

If you're suggesting they stay under the first LT line, they can’t even do what you just said. They have $38M to that line. They will hold back at least $5M for deadline deals. So that leaves $33M. How are they getting Bellinger ($25M) a pen arm and another usable bat for $33M? If the pen arm they sign is under $5M and the bat under $5M they might as well just stay with what they have.  No one at that price moves the needle, IMO. I think (hope) the plan is to go over the first line but not the second. That gives them $20M more. Now a pen arm can be $7M $10M and a bat at $16-$20M. If they don’t go over the first line then what they did at the deadline last year was terrible FO work. They should have went over for another relief pitcher which would have likely helped them gain a playoff spot. Not going over now makes that decision even worse than it was at that time. 

Don't underestimate the power of Ricketts cheapness.

[Stratos]

Jed has a number he wants.   Boras has a number.   Who blinks first?  We'll be here until the all star break. 

[LBiittner]

11 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbf the Pirates could be pretty interesting this year in a cloudy NL Central. The pitching brings the velo and has Skenes and Solometo otw on the starting side with Keller and Priester not dead yet. They’re hoping Henry Davis’ bat is to them what Cubs hope Michael Busch’s bat will be for Cubs. Hayes and Reynolds are good, Oneil Cruz will be back, Nick Gonzales and Endy Rodriguez are just about ready etc 

Is it a mathematical possibility all 5 teams in the nl central to tie for first/last? 

[LBiittner]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jed has a number he wants.   Boras has a number.   Who blinks first?  We'll be here until the all star break. 

Jed had his eyelids surgically sewn open 

[Rcal10]

14 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Don't underestimate the power of Ricketts cheapness.

I understand. But what I am saying is IF they do sign Bellinger is it even worth chasing a dumpster dive FA pitcher and bat, if they don’t go over this year. Do you want another Hosmer at league minimum ? Or some clown reclamation project pitcher at $2M. Might as well keep what they have and hope a young guy gets the job done. I would guess the young guy has as good a chance as the cheap player. 

[Bertz]

8 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jed has a number he wants.   Boras has a number.   Who blinks first?  We'll be here until the all star break. 

I still think something like the first Carlos Correa deal makes the most sense for all sides. 

If Bellinger keeps playing how he did last year and proves last year wasn't a fluke he'll opt out and get his $250M+, and might even have a crack at $300M.  If he takes a step back but still produces, think like a 110 wRC+ and 3ish WAR, he's still so young snd won't have a QO attached so he'll opt out and easily get north of Brandon Nimmo money.  If he turns into a pumpkin he already locked in that $100M. 

From Jed's point of view he probably signed a one year deal and can hand the position off to one of the kids next year.  If things go south he doesn't have to deal with it for the rest of the decade.

[CubinNY]

6 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Is it a mathematical possibility all 5 teams in the nl central to tie for first/last? 

I think both the Pirates and Reds will be right there with the Cubs competing for the division. It's hard to count out the Cardinals, but they are fading. I think the Brewers are still the team to beat. 

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

I understand. But what I am saying is IF they do sign Bellinger is it even worth chasing a dumpster dive FA pitcher and bat, if they don’t go over this year. Do you want another Hosmer at league minimum ? Or some clown reclamation project pitcher at $2M. Might as well keep what they have and hope a young guy gets the job done. I would guess the young guy has as good a chance as the cheap player. 

Rcal, what if Jed DOESNT sign a belli, chapman, Hoskins or any other hitter of consequence.

Are u anticipating contention? Or will you just be satisfied to observe the children graduate to Des Moines North?

[Rcal10]

13 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

Rcal, what if Jed DOESNT sign a belli, chapman, Hoskins or any other hitter of consequence.

Are u anticipating contention? Or will you just be satisfied to observe the children graduate to Des Moines North?

Why do you directing your question to me? And why does it appear you are suggesting I want the kids to play? I have been against the idea of not filling a spot because we have kids coming up every step of the way. Stratos seems to not want to block anyone or give out long term deals. And yet you come back to me. But since you asked me, NO I wouldn’t be happy or satisfied if they did nothing. If they miss out on all the other free agents they need to make aggressive trades using some minor league talent. Contrary to what you seem to suggest my position is, I view the minor league talent as assets to acquire major league talent. If they don’t get any one via free agency they need to deal some minor league talent and compete this year. 
The only time I have suggested a prospect fill a spot is when the discussion is filling a pen arm or the 26 guy in the team for a contract around a couple of million dollars. I don’t think you get anything for that. So in that case I would rather see a system guy. Instead of a pen arm for $2M, I will take my chances with Palancia, Little, etc. instead of Matt Carpenter for $2M I will take my chances with Mervis,  Canario, Mastrobuoni or Wisdom. 

[LBiittner]

2 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Why do you directing your question to me? And why does it appear you are suggesting I want the kids to play? I have been against the idea of not filling a spot because we have kids coming up every step of the way. Stratos seems to not want to block anyone or give out long term deals. And yet you come back to me. But since you asked me, NO I wouldn’t be happy or satisfied if they did nothing. If they miss out on all the other free agents they need to make aggressive trades using some minor league talent. Contrary to what you seem to suggest my position is, I view the minor league talent as assets to acquire major league talent. If they don’t get any one via free agency they need to deal some minor league talent and compete this year. 
The only time I have suggested a prospect fill a spot is when the discussion is filling a pen arm or the 26 guy in the team for a contract around a couple of million dollars. I don’t think you get anything for that. So in that case I would rather see a system guy. Instead of a pen arm for $2M, I will take my chances with Palancia, Little, etc. instead of Matt Carpenter for $2M I will take my chances with Mervis,  Canario, Mastrobuoni or Wisdom. 

Whoa 

Please don't be defensive. I'm curios because we are of the same generation and I respect your opinion. Please remove the chip from your attire. 

I'm asking because I can’t/won't believe Jed will let this opportunity to win the division float away. I understand he's waiting out the free agency to make his boss make more financial gain. But I can't justify the lack of trading more than the one deal to date

[LBiittner]

To stimulate spending by ownership, how-a-bout mlb incorporates the European soccer standard of competition? This format requires performance skill and $$$ to remain competitive in the elite division for the highest awarded championship. 

 

[squally1313]

2 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Sportrac projects Belli signing with the Cubs for 5yr at 22.5m per.  That's Heyward money 💰 haha

 

Well Heyward was a significantly better baseball player going into that offseason than Bellinger is now, so good for the players for bumping up salary expectations? Kinda just trolling here, but I just don't get the panic in someone like Bellinger to sign a contract before you have to. Go spend the offseason doing what you want, the money will still be there.