Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

5 hours ago, Stratos said:

Relievers are volatile but it's not random, it's just smaller samples.  The better the pitcher the higher probability they'll perform well.  We can't just count of randomness landing in our favour, not a winning strategy.  An extra reliever isn't that big of deal, just a few million.

If the reliever you want is only a few million you are absolutely talking about a random guy. A lock down guy is more in the $8M to $11M range. If they are going to spend $3M on a guy he is a roll of the dice. I would rather just let a young guy fill that spot. The best way to have a good pen that doesn’t cost too much is to develop the pen arms. Cubs appear to be doing that. This allows for money to be spent elsewhere. 

[thawv]

19 hours ago, Stratos said:

I never mentioned a dollar number needed to improve the pen, and definitely not 35m.

You said that if they sign Chapman and Belli, it would put them over by 40 million.  I said that I thought that it would be over by 5 million.  Then you said that they still have to buy relief pitchers.  I said that they aren't buying 35 million in RP.   That's the only way that it would put them over by 40 million.  That's the 35 million.

 

Maybe you meant to type a different number instead of 40 million in the beginning of your post.

[CubinNY]

I'm betting that the Cubs team right now is pretty much what they will look like coming into spring training. I think the Giants will get Chapman and the Blue Jays will sign Bellinger. They may add some mid/lower-tier relief pitching. People will talk about how the Giants and Blue Jays paid too much and will pat themselves on the back for their astute observation. Jed will discuss "value" before ST and into the season. The Ricketts will pocket extra 10s of millions of dollars this year. 

Edited January 22, 2024 by CubinNY

[Bull]

12 hours ago, LBiittner said:

I'm glad we have a good strategist in councell.

But before the rule changes, we can't forget that crazy game when madden was switching pitchers between the mound and left field. I think that half inning took at least 30 minutes. Probably this lead to some of the new rules. LOL

I see a big potential for a right handed opener if we have three lefty starters. I would love to see Assad opening for Wicks. Or straight piggy back them allowing each to go through the order 1 1/2 - 2 times depending on matchups. (ie if the number 7 hitter is a lefty, bring Wicks in then. I trust Counsell to do this well more than just about anyone.

Edited January 22, 2024 by Bull

[LBiittner]

Welp, today in Chicago sports headlines belongs to the bears and their new offense coordinator. 

So no Belli news in Chicago today. Jed and Boras are smart enough to NOT share the limelight publicity 

[LBiittner]

Probably not til a day or 2 after the Waldron presser.

[LBiittner]

But... there might be a Belli announcement in Toronto, San Fran, or Seattle or ?

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

I'm betting that the Cubs team right now is pretty much what they will look like coming into spring training. I think the Giants will get Chapman and the Blue Jays will sign Bellinger. They may add some mid/lower-tier relief pitching. People will talk about how the Giants and Blue Jays paid too much and will pat themselves on the back for their astute observation. Jed will discuss "value" before ST and into the season. The Ricketts will pocket extra 10s of millions of dollars this year. 

I don’t agree that’s how the Cubs will go into the season. However you absolutely nailed it in the response if that does happen. Hope you are wrong about it happening, however. 

Edited January 22, 2024 by Rcal10

[CubinNY]

19 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t agree that’s how the Acuña will go into the season. However you absolutely nailed it in the response if that does happen. Hope you are wrong about it happening, however. 

Boras controls everything. He has the top FAs and knows all the markets. The only way any of them go to the Cubs is if the Cubs are the highest bidder at the end of the process. If Jed is not interested in going the extra 10 feet, they will sign with the team who is willing to do it. 

However, I understand why he won't do it even if I don't necessarily agree with it. The Cubs may not need Bellinger for 5 years if PCA pans out. They may not need Chapman for 6 years if Shaw or someone else like Triantos pans out. They are in a difficult position given their philosophical orientation toward how to build a sustainable program. 

Obviously, my opinion is to build a good team and worry about the room later. Jed doesn't want to be old and expensive and not good. He'd rather be young inexpensive and not good. It's understandable. 

[Rcal10]

11 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Boras controls everything. He has the top FAs and knows all the markets. The only way any of them go to the Cubs is if the Cubs are the highest bidder at the end of the process. If Jed is not interested in going the extra 10 feet, they will sign with the team who is willing to do it. 

However, I understand why he won't do it even if I don't necessarily agree with it. The Cubs may not need Bellinger for 5 years if PCA pans out. They may not need Chapman for 6 years if Shaw or someone else like Triantos pans out. They are in a difficult position given their philosophical orientation toward how to build a sustainable program. 

Obviously, my opinion is to build a good team and worry about the room later. Jed doesn't want to be old and expensive and not good. He'd rather be young inexpensive and not good. It's understandable. 

Even if they don’t get either, I think there are still things he could do. He can make some trades for talent now. Not all these guys are going to work out. In fact, most likely more than half will fail to be a full time player in the league. It is the FO job to figure out who they can trade. 

[Bertz]

Doesn't detail exactly what updates he's making but hard not to notice several changeup-heavy guys including Kyle.  Wouldn't be surprised to see Wicks get some lift as well.

 

[Tryptamine]

We're really going to hit February with half the top 10 fa unsigned aren't we? This offseason is just about guaranteeing a strike before the next CBA.

[We Got The Whole 9]

12 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

We're really going to hit February with half the top 10 fa unsigned aren't we? This offseason is just about guaranteeing a strike before the next CBA.

Why?

 

The players and (some) agents need to wise up. Front offices are just using more pertinent data than ever before and they understand a player's potential worth better than the players do. They are projecting future production while the players and agents are going by the resume. Front Offices are also more apt to look at alternative trade options and internal options vs what's on the market, and unless it's a major upgrade, they're not gonna break the bank and their principles to chase a win. It's up to the players and (some) agents to adapt. This is the new norm.

[mul21]

23 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Why?

 

The players and (some) agents need to wise up. Front offices are just using more pertinent data than ever before and they understand a player's potential worth better than the players do. They are projecting future production while the players and agents are going by the resume. Front Offices are also more apt to look at alternative trade options and internal options vs what's on the market, and unless it's a major upgrade, they're not gonna break the bank and their principles to chase a win. It's up to the players and (some) agents to adapt. This is the new norm.

That is the case, but it's still likely to result in a strike because the players aren't getting paid in a commensurate manner for the years when they are productive.  If the owners aren't going to pay for past production, then they're going to have to pay for current production.

[Bertz]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

That is the case, but it's still likely to result in a strike because the players aren't getting paid in a commensurate manner for the years when they are productive.  If the owners aren't going to pay for past production, then they're going to have to pay for current production.

Two things

- The first two offseasons under this CBA have generally been viewed as very good for the players

- The players that have signed thus far this winter have generally made what was expected 

Unless a bunch of guys get left out in the cold at the end of the offseason I think this is going to be viewed more as an annoyance than something worth going to war over.  Like the DH market is probably going to get squeezed but everyone else looks like they're going to get their money, just a month later than expected.  And that timing can be chalked up to some combo of Boras/Diamond/Ohtani unless it happens again next winter.

[CubinNY]

32 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Why?

 

The players and (some) agents need to wise up. Front offices are just using more pertinent data than ever before and they understand a player's potential worth better than the players do. They are projecting future production while the players and agents are going by the resume. Front Offices are also more apt to look at alternative trade options and internal options vs what's on the market, and unless it's a major upgrade, they're not gonna break the bank and their principles to chase a win. It's up to the players and (some) agents to adapt. This is the new norm.

I think you are drinking the owner's coolaide. 

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, username said:

Speaking so declaratively about this seems super odd to me.  It is 100% not always highest offer that wins. 

don't you think if there was a mutual match made in love and baseball it would have been made already? 

[We Got The Whole 9]

13 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Fans always do, imagining they come to it using all that Free Will we have lol. Tbf us proles don’t have time to do anything but parrot propaganda and hustle grind 24/7/365 to keep up with perpetually falling wages and rising cost of existence

 

Good players are not sitting because the owners are crying poor. They are sitting because their demands are not in line with reality. Blame analytics if anything.

 

 

[mul21]

22 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

don't you think if there was a mutual match made in love and baseball it would have been made already? 

Nah, I think Boras is still trying to find a sucker and if he can't they'll come back to the Cubs and take whatever Jed is offering.  Due diligence on both sides.

[CubinNY]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Good players are not sitting because the owners are crying poor. They are sitting because their demands are not in line with reality. Blame analytics if anything.

 

 

for the first 6 years a player in the MLB he does not have control over how much money he makes in baseball. Teams pay players below what they are worth. Most MLB players never make it six years. The owners know this and the players know this.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Nah, I think Boras is still trying to find a sucker and if he can't they'll come back to the Cubs and take whatever Jed is offering.  Due diligence on both sides.

define sucker? I mean an extra year, a player option, a few million dollars. What makes a sucker? 

[mul21]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

define sucker? I mean an extra year, a player option, a few million dollars. What makes a sucker? 

Overpaying in terms of years or AAV.  Player options, opt outs, etc. don't usually cost you anything real.

[CubinNY]

1 minute ago, mul21 said:

Overpaying in terms of years or AAV.  Player options, opt outs, etc. don't usually cost you anything real.

Jed does not appear to mind big dollar contracts, he does not seem to like long-term contracts. If there is a sticking point, I'd bet it would be years vs dollars. 

[cl smooth]

Ryne Sandberg has prostate cancer:

Same cancer my dad has. horsefeathers cancer. 

Edited January 22, 2024 by cl smooth

[Jason Ross]

Awful to hear. Both for your father and Ryno. Wishing the best for both.