Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Matt Shaw is a unicorn.  He’s got “best player in the organization” potential.  TBH, a 1 year placeholder at 3B makes sense.  Maybe run it back with Madrigal or sign a bounce back guy like Tim Anderson for 1 year to play there 
 

I agree with a one year guy. But not Anderson. Maybe JD Davis? First SF has to sign Chapman. Maybe Polanco? I am not really worried about him not being great at 3rd for 30 games last year. He plays second and SS. We can take the chance for one year at 3rd.

Edited January 16, 2024 by Rcal10

[Cuzi]

I'd rather get good players now over worrying about what may potentially be an embarrassment of riches 2 years from now. Shaw could just as easily be the future for 2B. By the time he'll be knocking on the door for a call up, Hoerner will have under 2 years remaining on his contract. Or he could actually reach AAA first and hit an absolute wall against upper level competition before we start penciling him into a MLB lineup.

Edited January 16, 2024 by Cuzi

[mul21]

6 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Matt Shaw is a unicorn.  He’s got “best player in the organization” potential.  TBH, a 1 year placeholder at 3B makes sense.  Maybe run it back with Madrigal or sign a bounce back guy like Tim Anderson for 1 year to play there 
 

What?  He absolutely does not have that potential.  He doesn't play the field well enough at any position, he doesn't hit for enough power or walk enough (from hat we've seen in the minors so far) to even approach that level.  

[Jason Ross]

9 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What?  He absolutely does not have that potential.  He doesn't play the field well enough at any position, he doesn't hit for enough power or walk enough (from hat we've seen in the minors so far) to even approach that level.  

Yeah, I think I'd agree with this. I don't see a unicorn. I think your best case scenario is something akin Dustin Pedroia offensively while being average at a position defensively like 2b or 3b. Something like a 120 wRC+ hitter or so. While Pedroia had a few seasons where he could be the best player in the org, Shaw probably doesn't have the defensive potential at any position (though may add more base running with his athleticism) to do that. 

[PeanutPunch33]

19 minutes ago, Cuzi said:

I'd rather get good players now over worrying about what may potentially be an embarrassment of riches 2 years from now. Shaw could just as easily be the future for 2B. By the time he'll be knocking on the door for a call up, Hoerner will have under 2 years remaining on his contract. Or he could actually reach AAA first and hit an absolute wall against upper level competition before we start penciling him into a MLB lineup.

Edit that’s true, I just hope it’s not Chapman lol I’m not sold on him 

Edited January 16, 2024 by PeanutPunch33

[LBiittner]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree with a one year guy. But not Anderson. Maybe JD Davis? First SF has to sign Chapman. Maybe Polanco? I am not really worried about him not being great at 3rd for 30 games last year. He plays second and SS. We can take the chance for one year at 3rd.

While our 3rdbase is not ideal, I'm not sure I can understand your infatuation with other teams crappy 3rdbase options for our beloved cubs. 

[Tryptamine]

15 minutes ago, mul21 said:

What?  He absolutely does not have that potential.  He doesn't play the field well enough at any position, he doesn't hit for enough power or walk enough (from hat we've seen in the minors so far) to even approach that level.  

While I agree the poster you responded to, took things way too far, I think you're going a bit too far in the other direction as well. Yes, he's unlikely to stick at SS, but he absolutely could be an above average defender at 2B, 3B is yet to be seen. I'm not concerned with walks at this point. He simply hasn't needed to be patient so far in his time in the minors. At Maryland he had a career .319 AVG and .412  OBP, so he clearly can take walks, but when you're torching the minors to the tune of a 277 wRC+ and 197 wRC+ in your first stops, he didn't really have to. He could have some very valuable 4+ fWAR seasons, but yeah, if he's your franchise player, that's more an indication of your franchise than him. 

Edited January 16, 2024 by Tryptamine

[Cuzi]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I normally always agree with this approach but Shaw might really be that good where the spot should already be his, like if Kris Bryant was on the cusp of coming up.  But that’s true that it might end up being at 2b..

Shaw is no where near a Kris Bryant level prospect. Stop that.

[PeanutPunch33]

I don’t understand advanced stats well enough to carry on but if he’s moving up the minors at the rate he is, he could be pretty dang special.  

[Cuzi]

4 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I don’t understand advanced stats well enough to carry on but if he’s moving up the minors at the rate he is, he could be pretty dang special.  

He's 22 years old and has 3 years of college ball under his belt. He's moving through the minors to his age bracket. Kris Bryant was a damn top 10 prospect the moment he was drafted.

Edited January 16, 2024 by Cuzi

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think it's the most likely outcome by any means, but there's a not-that-small chance that Shaw is a slightly lesser version of Bregman.  Maybe a few less walks and lesser defense, and a few more hits/XBH?  Whether that's worthy of 'best player in the organization' is a slightly different question, but especially with some outlets putting him as high as the Top 25 overall, I think it's a possibility he's *in the conversation* for best position player on a competitive team(like Bregman).

 

The thing that I really hope we internalize though is that Shaw will not be that caliber of player this year, and should have absolutely zero bearing on the 2024 roster.  You can't not make an upgrade because you're afraid of blocking him; he has failure risk like all prospects, he's only got a handful of AA games which means he's unlikely to be MLB ready for most of the season if he gets there in 2024 at all, and his defensive home is unsure enough that you can't hesitate to make moves even if you're bullish on him.

[Tryptamine]

1 minute ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

I don’t understand advanced stats well enough to carry on but if he’s moving up the minors at the rate he is, he could be pretty dang special.  

He is moving quickly and of course this is a good thing. Part of the reason he's moving so quickly is that he's a very high floor college bat. If he also had superstar ceiling while having a high floor he'd have been up there with Dylan Crews. With that said, he still has a nice ceiling and could be a guy who sees some all star games and posts some 20/20 seasons. He might end up being Pedroia but a tier down. 

[Rcal10]

7 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

While our 3rdbase is not ideal, I'm not sure I can understand your infatuation with other teams crappy 3rdbase options for our beloved cubs. 

The last 3 years Polanco has but up OPS+ of 115, 115, and 125, JD Davis career OPS+ is 113 and has had a few years over 125. Both are substantially better hitters than Madrigal. Both only have one year left. Both would be a pretty big upgrade offensively. The knock on Davis was defense. But he actually wasn’t bad last year. As for Polanco, I know he played 3rd for the Twins late last year. Didn’t do so well, but he has played SS and 2nd base previously. I am not going to say he can’t play the position due to a small sample from last year.

[mul21]

14 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

While I agree the poster you responded to, took things way too far, I think you're going a bit too far in the other direction as well. Yes, he's unlikely to stick at SS, but he absolutely could be an above average defender at 2B, 3B is yet to be seen. I'm not concerned with walks at this point. He simply hasn't needed to be patient so far in his time in the minors. At Maryland he had a career .319 AVG and .412  OBP, so he clearly can take walks, but when you're torching the minors to the tune of a 277 wRC+ and 197 wRC+ in your first stops, he didn't really have to. He could have some very valuable 4+ fWAR seasons, but yeah, if he's your franchise player, that's more an indication of your franchise than him. 

I'm not discounting that he can be a very good player, just that best player in the organization is pretty hyperbolic.

[Rcal10]

4 minutes ago, mul21 said:

I'm not discounting that he can be a very good player, just that best player in the organization is pretty hyperbolic.

Just adding on to this, it is also hyperbolic to suggest he should be the 3rd baseman next year or that the Cubs shouldn’t get better this year because they have Shaw for 25. As Cuzi said, get a good player now. Worry about where Saw plays later. But I don’t want Chapman. And it just so happens a lot of guys they could trade for do have 1 or 2 years left on their deals. So if they can upgrade with a smaller more to not lose much minor league assets and have the position open by 26’ anyway. It can be a win, win.

Edited January 16, 2024 by Rcal10

[LBiittner]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

The last 3 years Polanco has but up OPS+ of 115, 115, and 125, JD Davis career OPS+ is 113 and has had a few years over 125. Both are substantially better hitters than Madrigal. Both only have one year left. Both would be a pretty big upgrade offensively. The knock on Davis was defense. But he actually wasn’t bad last year. As for Polanco, I know he played 3rd for the Twins late last year. Didn’t do so well, but he has played SS and 2nd base previously. I am not going to say he can’t play the position due to a small sample from last year.

If these pieces have such good stats, why are these teams so willing to let go? 

What is the carrot you are dangling? I hope you are not considering Assad for these 30 yearold stop gaps

[Bertz]

I've been thinking a lot about 3B the last few days, and I've been thinking about it in the context of TT's great point about not having a set lineup. and I've been thinking about Jed emphasizing the team's needs as an ability to hit RHP instead of a specific position or two.

My guess is the team is going to run Madrigal out there as the primary 3B, but that they're comfortable with another one of the options getting significant time if things break a certain way.  Probably Busch, Jed talked up his versatility and IMO his ability to fake it as a 2B has zero utility for this team.  He'd be like, 6th on the depth chart?  "Versatility" has pretty much got to allude to his 3B experience.

So what's the plan?  It's to acquire Bellinger and another bat.  And I do mean bat   The primary consideration with this guy is offense.  Jed wants someone who can compliment the current set of hitters, and if he plays 1B or 3B or something that's a bonus.  I kind of like Justin Turner.  Minimal splits, pretty much the platonic ideal of a "professional hitter" which compliments Wisdom/Morel, and he is an emergency option at 3rd.  Age is an obvious concern but on a 1 year deal shouldn't be the end of the world.

So what you've got is half of your lineup is set.  Happ, Seiya, Swanson, and Hoerner all play every day at the positions you generally expect.  The catchers have a timeshare, but it's based on rest and pitchers not offense.

CF, 3B, 1B, and DH though vary wild day by day.  Bellinger plays everyday, but where he plays depends on matchups.  The other three spots depend on the day.  Steele's pitching?  We want Madrigal and Bellinger manning the infield corners to max out defense.  Opposing pitcher is a sinkerballer?  Let's get Wisdom and Morel in there.  Etc.

This also lets you fold the kids in as they're ready.  Put them into the rotation and break them in with optimal matchups.

[LBiittner]

24 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I've been thinking a lot about 3B the last few days, and I've been thinking about it in the context of TT's great point about not having a set lineup. and I've been thinking about Jed emphasizing the team's needs as an ability to hit RHP instead of a specific position or two.

My guess is the team is going to run Madrigal out there as the primary 3B, but that they're comfortable with another one of the options getting significant time if things break a certain way.  Probably Busch, Jed talked up his versatility and IMO his ability to fake it as a 2B has zero utility for this team.  He'd be like, 6th on the depth chart?  "Versatility" has pretty much got to allude to his 3B experience.

So what's the plan?  It's to acquire Bellinger and another bat.  And I do mean bat   The primary consideration with this guy is offense.  Jed wants someone who can compliment the current set of hitters, and if he plays 1B or 3B or something that's a bonus.  I kind of like Justin Turner.  Minimal splits, pretty much the platonic ideal of a "professional hitter" which compliments Wisdom/Morel, and he is an emergency option at 3rd.  Age is an obvious concern but on a 1 year deal shouldn't be the end of the world.

So what you've got is half of your lineup is set.  Happ, Seiya, Swanson, and Hoerner all play every day at the positions you generally expect.  The catchers have a timeshare, but it's based on rest and pitchers not offense.

CF, 3B, 1B, and DH though vary wild day by day.  Bellinger plays everyday, but where he plays depends on matchups.  The other three spots depend on the day.  Steele's pitching?  We want Madrigal and Bellinger manning the infield corners to max out defense.  Opposing pitcher is a sinkerballer?  Let's get Wisdom and Morel in there.  Etc.

This also lets you fold the kids in as they're ready.  Put them into the rotation and break them in with optimal matchups.

Turner opted out a 13m deal?

He'll probably want 2 years 20m 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, LBiittner said:

If these pieces have such good stats, why are these teams so willing to let go? 

What is the carrot you are dangling? I hope you are not considering Assad for these 30 yearold stop gaps

Well, I know the twins are trying to cut some payroll. So maybe they move from Polanco and his $7M+ deal with an option next year. As for Davis, if the Giants sign Chapman he becomes expendable. if you didn’t overvalue Assad and hold him as some sort of amazing asset you would see his value is pretty much in line with either of those guys. I see Assad as a middle relief/swing starter who will have an era right around 4. He overachieved last year. Typically this sort of guy evens out eventually. He is fine, but not anything I would be afraid to trade. I would bet Assad’s era would be closer to 4.50 than 3 next year.
However, even if they didn’t deal Assad, the Twins could like Wisdom. Right handed power bat who cost much less than Polanco. Add Wisdom to someone like Thompson and a minor leaguer and maybe the Twins make that trade. I am sure if the Cubs did decide to target Polanco, Davis or a few other 3rd baseman of that level, Quintana’s might be looking to move, they can put something together that another team would want. And I am suggesting they improve at 3rd pretty much based on what Jed said. He said 2 bats. So if Bellinger is one, who is the second and where does he play? Assuming Morel can’t play 3rd, that is the only position another bat can fill. He didn’t say replace a bat we are counting on with a different bat, so that doesn’t sound like he meant trading Morel to add a bat. Then that bat can be DH. Sounded like he knows the bats he has for the line up and wants two more. One is Bellinger and the other is a 3rd baseman. If he liked the idea of Madrigal/mastroboni/Wisdom at third he would have said he needs bats. 

[Rcal10]

52 minutes ago, Bertz said:

I've been thinking a lot about 3B the last few days, and I've been thinking about it in the context of TT's great point about not having a set lineup. and I've been thinking about Jed emphasizing the team's needs as an ability to hit RHP instead of a specific position or two.

My guess is the team is going to run Madrigal out there as the primary 3B, but that they're comfortable with another one of the options getting significant time if things break a certain way.  Probably Busch, Jed talked up his versatility and IMO his ability to fake it as a 2B has zero utility for this team.  He'd be like, 6th on the depth chart?  "Versatility" has pretty much got to allude to his 3B experience.

So what's the plan?  It's to acquire Bellinger and another bat.  And I do mean bat   The primary consideration with this guy is offense.  Jed wants someone who can compliment the current set of hitters, and if he plays 1B or 3B or something that's a bonus.  I kind of like Justin Turner.  Minimal splits, pretty much the platonic ideal of a "professional hitter" which compliments Wisdom/Morel, and he is an emergency option at 3rd.  Age is an obvious concern but on a 1 year deal shouldn't be the end of the world.

So what you've got is half of your lineup is set.  Happ, Seiya, Swanson, and Hoerner all play every day at the positions you generally expect.  The catchers have a timeshare, but it's based on rest and pitchers not offense.

CF, 3B, 1B, and DH though vary wild day by day.  Bellinger plays everyday, but where he plays depends on matchups.  The other three spots depend on the day.  Steele's pitching?  We want Madrigal and Bellinger manning the infield corners to max out defense.  Opposing pitcher is a sinkerballer?  Let's get Wisdom and Morel in there.  Etc.

This also lets you fold the kids in as they're ready.  Put them into the rotation and break them in with optimal matchups.

If it is just bat, I want JD Martinez. Figure  out 3rd on the fly. Maybe Morel when they have a fly ball pitcher. Maybe PCA plays center and Bellinger goes to first and Busch 3rd. Maybe Madrigal at times, with a guy who keeps the ball on the ground. But I think for this to work they have to at least feel Morel can handle 3rd a bit. Maybe not good, but not unplayable. To me, if he could do that, Martinez is the easy choice. But I don’t feel they think he can. I do agree with you though, I see Counsell using the roster to mix and match for the best outcome possible. 

[Post Count Padder]

I know we've cooled on him but Mervis still should hold value. I've been wondering if there's a way we could swing a deal with him for a controllable reliever like a James Karinchak. Is that too unreasonable? Not necessarily a one-for-one.

[Tryptamine]

In a bullpen that already had significant walk issues, adding the nearly 6.5 BB/9 of Karinchak is probably not the way to go. His stuff is very good though.

[LBiittner]

38 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Well, I know the twins are trying to cut some payroll. So maybe they move from Polanco and his $7M+ deal with an option next year. As for Davis, if the Giants sign Chapman he becomes expendable. if you didn’t overvalue Assad and hold him as some sort of amazing asset you would see his value is pretty much in line with either of those guys. I see Assad as a middle relief/swing starter who will have an era right around 4. He overachieved last year. Typically this sort of guy evens out eventually. He is fine, but not anything I would be afraid to trade. I would bet Assad’s era would be closer to 4.50 than 3 next year.
However, even if they didn’t deal Assad, the Twins could like Wisdom. Right handed power bat who cost much less than Polanco. Add Wisdom to someone like Thompson and a minor leaguer and maybe the Twins make that trade. I am sure if the Cubs did decide to target Polanco, Davis or a few other 3rd baseman of that level, Quintana’s might be looking to move, they can put something together that another team would want. And I am suggesting they improve at 3rd pretty much based on what Jed said. He said 2 bats. So if Bellinger is one, who is the second and where does he play? Assuming Morel can’t play 3rd, that is the only position another bat can fill. He didn’t say replace a bat we are counting on with a different bat, so that doesn’t sound like he meant trading Morel to add a bat. Then that bat can be DH. Sounded like he knows the bats he has for the line up and wants two more. One is Bellinger and the other is a 3rd baseman. If he liked the idea of Madrigal/mastroboni/Wisdom at third he would have said he needs bats. 

U probably right but I'm not sure how u see Assad at Era of 4.5. Baseball reference had him around 3.05 the last 2 seasons. That's a lot less than your projection. They also had him at 2.3 war. But I think that's a typo

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

In a bullpen that already had significant walk issues, adding the nearly 6.5 BB/9 of Karinchak is probably not the way to go. His stuff is very good though.

Karinchak made more sense before Almonte.  You can't count on him off the bat as an 8th inning role, and I don't know if they're adding 2 more relievers.  I guess Karinchak is optionable so there is that outlet that wouldn't close the door entirely, but the fit has definitely gone down.

[Rcal10]

9 minutes ago, LBiittner said:

U probably right but I'm not sure how u see Assad at Era of 4.5. Baseball reference had him around 3.05 the last 2 seasons. That's a lot less than your projection. They also had him at 2.3 war. But I think that's a typo

But he has outperformed his expected results each year. In fact his projections for next year have him around 100 innings with an era around 3.90-4.00. Not awful, he has value. But he isn’t someone I would worry about replacing. They have guys like him in the system. 
And I didn’t say his era would be 4.50. I said it would be closer to 4.50 than 3.0. So with baseball reference protecting him at 3.92, they agree with me. 

Edited January 16, 2024 by Rcal10