Cubs offseason chit chat...

[WhyCantWeWin]

31 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Sasaki is gonna get 400m. 23 y/o, healthy as a horse, no size concerns, some of the best stuff in the world. 

Isn't he subject to those international spending limitations, same as Ohtani was? 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Isn't he subject to those international spending limitations, same as Ohtani was? 

Correct, if he wanted to be posted or come over as a free agent without IFA limitations, he'd have to wait several years.

Quote

The caveat of the posting system is that foreign-born players are subject to international bonus pool money restrictions unless they are at least 25 years of age and have played as a professional in a foreign league recognized by Major League Baseball for a minimum of six seasons. 

Sasaki turned 22 in November and has played 3 seasons in NPB.

[Derwood]

[Tim]

49 minutes ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Murakami is the guy after next year I think. Slugging lefty 3rd basemen 👀

Hell of a novelist, too.

[Tryptamine]

Murakami's stance is weird, but that bat speed is legit.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Murakami doesn't turn 25 until next February, so I *think* he would still face IFA limits after 2024 but could be posted after 2025?  Or if birthday is the hard limit to officially post, then in theory he could be posted 2 weeks before ST maybe.

[Backtobanks]

1 hour ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You can see his batted ball data. Here's the thing: this is the norm, Chops. It's been the norm since his injury. It got better but not significantly better. What data here suggests he can get back to 2019? It's 2024. We have had 1,699 PA's of results from 2020 to 2023. I think we can say that he's healthier now and that 2023 was better. He made some important approach changes, specifically with two strikes. But what in this information do you think suggests he's ever reaching 2019 levels again? This isn't one year of data, it's years of data. We can say that 2023 Cody Bellinger was better, but that doesn't mean we just simply ignore 2020-2022 because we feel like it. 

If you think this is me making the "batted ball data the end all be all" then you're not really being fair to my overall argument. I'm saying that the batted ball data highly suggests regression from 2023 to something more around 110-120 wRC+. That's a good player; and better than 2020-2022.  I've also said there are some underlying things that he does better to help mitigate the batted ball data, too, but that it's just not enough. That's not the "end all be all" that's just the reality. 2019 Cody Bellinger probably isn't coming back unless his batted ball data gets much better very quickly and without warning. I also think 2023 Bellinger is a bit better than we can expect 2024 Bellinger to be. But that also doesn't mean he'll be bad...just....not as good as he was last year, probably.

And yet all of those troubling statistics that he showed in 2023, somehow he had 29 doubles, 26 HR, 525 Slug .881 OPS with an OPS+ of 133 in 130 games.  Somehow trending downward from his top years hasn't hurt his production very much.

[Petrey10]

Let’s get this team built first. 

[Jason Ross]

2 hours ago, Backtobanks said:

And yet all of those troubling statistics that he showed in 2023, somehow he had 29 doubles, 26 HR, 525 Slug .881 OPS with an OPS+ of 133 in 130 games.  Somehow trending downward from his top years hasn't hurt his production very much.

I mean, it did in 2020-2022. Last year some approach changes help. But this goes, literally back to the start. You might not care how he managed to get to an OPS+ of 133, but teams do. How he got there is worrisome, not that he got there.

[Tryptamine]

I do expect some regression, but even as a 120 wRC+ guy, Bellinger is a guy I want as long as he's not looking at 200M.

[Rob]

2 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I do expect some regression, but even as a 120 wRC+ guy, Bellinger is a guy I want as long as he's not looking at 200M.

I don't think there's anybody on this board that doesn't want Bellinger. It's all about the contract. If it's 200M, the contract outweighs the player.

[LBiittner]

What would you pay woodruff in a 2 year deal? 

How much for a year of rehab in 2024 and then hopefully he takes the mound in 2025.

Cubs have done this in the past with a few pitchers, with varied degrees of success

[LBiittner]

2m for 24?

14m for 25?

[thawv]

15 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

You can see his batted ball data. Here's the thing: this is the norm, Chops. It's been the norm since his injury. It got better but not significantly better. What data here suggests he can get back to 2019? It's 2024. We have had 1,699 PA's of results from 2020 to 2023. I think we can say that he's healthier now and that 2023 was better. He made some important approach changes, specifically with two strikes. But what in this information do you think suggests he's ever reaching 2019 levels again? This isn't one year of data, it's years of data. We can say that 2023 Cody Bellinger was better, but that doesn't mean we just simply ignore 2020-2022 because we feel like it. 

If you think this is me making the "batted ball data the end all be all" then you're not really being fair to my overall argument. I'm saying that the batted ball data highly suggests regression from 2023 to something more around 110-120 wRC+. That's a good player; and better than 2020-2022.  I've also said there are some underlying things that he does better to help mitigate the batted ball data, too, but that it's just not enough. That's not the "end all be all" that's just the reality. 2019 Cody Bellinger probably isn't coming back unless his batted ball data gets much better very quickly and without warning. I also think 2023 Bellinger is a bit better than we can expect 2024 Bellinger to be. But that also doesn't mean he'll be bad...just....not as good as he was last year, probably.

What site is this info from, 1908?

[thawv]

7 hours ago, LBiittner said:

2m for 24?

14m for 25?

I was thinking about Woodruff a couple of months.  Then I realized recently that he had shoulder surgery, and not elbow surgery.  I don't know for sure, but it seems to me that shoulder surgery is much worse than elbow surgery, which we know has a very high success rate.  But if healthy, I'd love to have him at or near the top of the rotation.

[BigbadB]

20 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

 

Dodgers still have a few available years to defer money on future contracts.

[Rob]

2 hours ago, thawv said:

What site is this info from, 1908?

Not 1908, but it's pretty clearly from baseballsavant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#statcast_rankings

[Jason Ross]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

What site is this info from, 1908?

Savant. You can find these percentile rankings on every player page. Just scroll to the bottom! Cool stuff.

[thawv]

55 minutes ago, Rob said:

Not 1908, but it's pretty clearly from baseballsavant.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/cody-bellinger-641355?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb#statcast_rankings

I thought it was!!  Thank, Rob.  I don't usually scroll down that far.  Now I will!!

[thawv]

21 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Savant. You can find these percentile rankings on every player page. Just scroll to the bottom! Cool stuff.

Thanks bud.  I have to start scrolling down further!

 

[Backtobanks]

Saw this proposal on MLBTV: Canario + Madrigal + Wisdom + Triantos + Mervis for Cabrera + Scott.  That looks like a good deal for us.

[Tryptamine]

10 minutes ago, Backtobanks said:

Saw this proposal on MLBTV: Canario + Madrigal + Wisdom + Triantos + Mervis for Cabrera + Scott.  That looks like a good deal for us.

Value wise, absolutely,  but this also means you must acquire Chapman or make a trade for a 3B, because all the internal options are gone.

[Jason Ross]

 

[PeanutPunch33]

Matt Shaw is a unicorn.  He’s got “best player in the organization” potential.  TBH, a 1 year placeholder at 3B makes sense.  Maybe run it back with Madrigal or sign a bounce back guy like Tim Anderson for 1 year to play there 
 

[Cuzi]

Haven't we known for over a month the Cubs have had discussions with the Guardians on players like Bieber and Clase? That's not news. When they start actually swapping names let me know.