Cubs offseason chit chat...

[LBiittner]

42 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Blake Snell, Jordan Hicks, and Shintaro Fujinami pls 

I'm on board.

Like Hicks and love tall pitchers who could bust out like Fujinama.

[Stratos]

6 hours ago, Bertz said:

You would presume if Tommy is saying this on the radio then this is the plan.  A bit of a shame because I have preferred a two SP plan since we missed on the elite bats.

 

Agree.  He probably shouldn't have said this.  It doesn't help Jed.

Though this isn't really a secret to anyone.  But again it's more of his "wish list" of what he's told the FO, he doesn't ultimately control who or if they get people.  We know they're going to grab another SP (don't know the quality) and some pen arms.

Edited January 3, 2024 by Stratos

[Rcal10]

I would hope are a minimum the starter they bring in as at least at Stroman’s level. Then that 5th spot could be fought between Wicks, Assad, Wesneski, Brown, and Horton. I realize Brown and Horton would probably not happen until June or later, and one of the other guys might be used in a trade. 
I would then hope they get a couple decent pen arms. And finally 2 bats, one for sure being left handed. For me that is the least they should do this off season. IMO the path that could work is a Naylor/Bieber trade and then sign Chapman. That fills the offense. Center is Tauchman/Canario until PCA is ready. Morel is DH. Bieber is the starter. That leaves 2 pen spots. My guess is 1 (at least) of the guys mentioned as 5th starter potential would be traded to the Guardians. 

[Stratos]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

With the Convention 9 days away, you have to think they will make a significant signing and or Trade by then.

Can you imagine going into the Convention with Craig Counsell as the only major addition to the team ?

Meh I don't think they care.  It would be dumb to make a signing just for a convention.  The season is a lot more important.  There will be lots of current and former Cubs players/coaches there to make the fans happy.

[Stratos]

11 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Yeah, the "One SP, two RP" thing isn't particularly what I wanted to hear. It likely means Brent Suter and I agree: impact or MiLB options. RP's are so volatile, locking yourself into mediocrity like Suter is asking for a bad ride. Not that he will be, but it's begging for one. 

They really need to get better pen arms than last offseason.  Boxberger was underwhelming even if healthy, he was a very average pen arm.  Fulmer I was ok with, he had some history of success, it just didn't work out.  They really need to do better than a Boxberger type.  2 solid vet arms with some kind of history of previous success, at least one being a LHP.  The rest can be the typical minor league contract flyers they invite to ST.

[thawv]

On 1/2/2024 at 11:16 AM, 1908_Cubs said:

Here's a question that I don't have a concrete answer on: does AZ Phil have sources within the Cubs, or is he just a really good source of information for the Complex League? Has he any history of breaking information/sources/or anything connected to real information?

I ask because he recently posted this, which suggests the Cubs have set the spending limit at the CBT threshold. Is this him speculating because of the lack of action? Or is Phil relaying some fairly concerning information? Not trying to doom-boner, but curious as to how connected AZ Phil is, as I'm honestly not sure. I've always used him as a killer way to follow the Complex and haven't paid attention outside of that. The reality is that if the Cubs aren't going above the CBT, the Cubs offseason is handicapped to hell.

I've been saying this for a few years and was scoffed at.  We already know their budget. 

 

Edited January 4, 2024 by thawv

[thawv]

On 1/2/2024 at 7:00 PM, Rcal10 said:

Most of our discussions have been about Jed waiting on the FA market to drop. But he also might be waiting on the trade market to soften as well. We have seen Sale go for a solid prospect. Glasnow went for more than expected, Rhe white Sox are asking for a crazy return for Cease. I think Jed’s delay in getting things done is very much a result of teams asking an awful lot for established talent. And he is just not willing to give up that much prospect assets. 

This makes sense, and is certainly a possibility. 

[thawv]

19 hours ago, squally1313 said:

There's still a rough fit....PCA hasn't earned a starting role, Bellinger and PCA are almost definitely capable of taking 20-30 starts in the corners. This is mostly devils advocate here, since I think the utility of PCA as a trade asset in a Bellinger future is better than what I'm about to lay out, but:

• 3B: Wisdom/Madrigal, the end. Reinforce at the deadline if necessary.
• LF: Happ 130 games, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• CF: Bellinger 100, PCA 60
• RF: Suzuki 130, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• 1B: Alonso 130, Bellinger 30
• DH: Morel 100, Alonso 20, Happ 20, Suzuki 20

That puts you at

• Bellinger 160
• Happ 150
• Suzuki 150
• Morel 100
• PCA 90

If you think that's too down on Morel, give Happ and Suzuki 10 more spots in the corners. Basically: it can work. I think it can also work (better) with Tauchman, Canario, etc playing the PCA role and/or like, a JD Martinez/Justin Turner playing the Morel role plus whatever pitching that gets us. 

With all due respect, I can't see any situation that if PCA is in the lineup, he's move off of CF.  There's nobody on the roster, and likely in the league that can bump him to another position. 

[thawv]

16 hours ago, LBiittner said:

Who does JED pay more:

Swanson 7yr @ 177m

Belli ?

I'd say Swanson.  Especially if the Cubs are Belli's only serious market.  Without a bidding war with other teams, I think that the Cubs should be able to get Belli in the 22-23 AAV range.  It's the bidding war that forces teams to pay over market value.  If the Cubs are willing to go 7 years, I think that 145-150 is doable.  Again, that's if there's not other teams driving his price up. 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, thawv said:

I'd say Swanson.  Especially if the Cubs are Belli's only serious market.  Without a bidding war with other teams, I think that the Cubs should be able to get Belli in the 22-23 AAV range.  It's the bidding war that forces teams to pay over market value.  If the Cubs are willing to go 7 years, I think that 145-150 is doable.  Again, that's if there's not other teams driving his price up. 

I don’t see him that low. I think the lowest would be $154 to $161 for 7. And if that’s what he ends up at he really should be a Cub again. 

[Stratos]

If Cubs like Bellinger, Snell, and Hoskins it's going to be a long January.

[CubinNY]

18 hours ago, Bertz said:

 

- You pretty much need to pull down one of Chapman/Bellinger. 

I see this a lot. Chapman isn't in the same tier as Belligner, nor is he a good fit for the Cubs' offensive needs. But we know they like defense (market inefficiency?). I'd be pretty sore if they had an either/or situation and chose Chapman. 

[gocubs218]

it’s Ralph but he’s linking us to Montgomery. 

[Bertz]

36 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

I see this a lot. Chapman isn't in the same tier as Belligner, nor is he a good fit for the Cubs' offensive needs. But we know they like defense (market inefficiency?). I'd be pretty sore if they had an either/or situation and chose Chapman. 

I actually mostly agree on the offensive needs thing, we don't ideally want another RHH who's vulnerable to top of zone fastballs (that can be mitigated with our 2nd hitter though).  But total package wise Chapman and Bellinger are very comparable players.  Bellinger will get more years because he's younger, but you're expecting ~3.5 WAR from either in 2024.

[squally1313]

3 hours ago, thawv said:

With all due respect, I can't see any situation that if PCA is in the lineup, he's move off of CF.  There's nobody on the roster, and likely in the league that can bump him to another position. 

That's fine....make Bellinger 70 in CF and PCA 90 then, and give Bellinger all of PCAs corner starts. It was a quick exercise. 

[Derwood]

Would MLB benefit from having a shorter window for FA signings?

[Bertz]

23 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Would MLB benefit from having a shorter window for FA signings?

It's sticky because teams could potentially use it to hammer lower and mid-tier players, and as we know they don't need any additional help there.

The two ideas I like are:

- A transaction freeze over the holidays and a bit beyond.  Something like the end of the winter meetings to 1/15

- An offseason trade deadline.  Since it's not a signing deadline it shouldn't be anti-labor, but by closing off a bunch of avenues to change your team it should force execs to actually pick a lane and commit

Neither of those would get us an NFL/NBA style bonanza, but would I think make most offseasons snappier akin to last winter.

[squally1313]

30 minutes ago, Derwood said:

Would MLB benefit from having a shorter window for FA signings?

Is this purely from an entertainment standpoint? Or are there potential benefits to the players by limiting the window?

[Derwood]

4 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Is this purely from an entertainment standpoint? Or are there potential benefits to the players by limiting the window?

I haven't thought it through, just thinking about MLB free agency compared to NFL and NBA (where most of the signings happen in a very short time period). I understand, that the sports are very different in terms of structure, cap, schedule, draft, etc., so not at all an apples-to-apples comparison

[Stratos]

I think it would be better for pitchers and catchers to sign earlier so they're not waiting to prepare with their teams at the last minute before ST.

[JBears79]

1 hour ago, Derwood said:

Would MLB benefit from having a shorter window for FA signings?

Yes

[CubinNY]

11 minutes ago, Stratos said:

I think it would be better for pitchers and catchers to sign earlier so they're not waiting to prepare with their teams at the last minute before ST.

I think you are assuming that they are not preparing for the season on their own. They don't need directions. 

[Michael Busch Light]

2 hours ago, Derwood said:

Would MLB benefit from having a shorter window for FA signings?

No doubt.  This off season has been exceedingly boring and is hurting the sport. 

[Tryptamine]

From a fan perspective,  not even a Cub fan perspective,  this offseason has been awful. My 2 favorite times of the year are mid December to mid January because of free agency and the MLB Draft. This free agency has been the least enjoyable in my memory. We're about a week into January,  75% of the FA are still there, and we're hearing the same recycled things from writers for the last month without any new information. It has gotten to the point where even when the Cubs eventually do something, I'm just not going to particularly care.

[Bertz]

I wonder if Amed Rosario would play 3B here?  It's probably a no but:

- After his down 2023 and given he is only 28 he's certainly looking for just a one year deal

- He's more or less played himself off SS, but learned 2B basically on the fly with the Dodgers and was very good.  He doesn't have a cannon for an arm but should have plenty for 3B

- Offensively he's basically a less outlier-y Nick Madrigal.  Plus contact, lots of chase, not a ton of slug, but also not a guy with so little power that teams literally play their outfield in

- He's fast and mashes lefties, so even if he's not a starting caliber player he has skills that lend themselves well to a bench role

Now why it may not work:

- He's never actually played 3B.  And while the numbers say he's no longer a shortstop, he might be reticent to actually concede that just yet because it lowers the cap on what kind of money he can make

- While not as extreme as Nick Madrigal, he sort of fits the mold of Nick Madrigal in that he's contact over power.  And we already *know* Madrigal is a whiz at 3B.  This might be mystery box thinking on my part

- He'd ostensibly be the 3rd bat.  And the cost might not make sense for a guy you think probably solves 3B but you're not super sure