Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Lester and Maybe Bellinger in last 9 offseasons they have signed a guy they were linked to by the media.

Why I don't get too much into rumors 

I mean your Day 1 qualifier changes quite a bit.  If you take that away I think most signings we've had word of well ahead of time.  Like last year Taillon was more or less out of nowhere but I think everyone else we had pretty decent runway knowing they were being pursued.

[gocubs218]

13 minutes ago, username said:

If ever there were a time to legally change your name, this would be it.  

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, 1908_Cubs said:

We'll see. I have a feeling the Cubs will add a reliever, but it will be someone more established. The Cubs have a ton of dudes who have stuff and carry questions with them. Maybe if he's cheap, but I don't really think the Cubs will be the team there. Who knows, though.

Cubs seem to like to sign established pen guys coming off down years, banking on randomness of small samples.  To their credit it's usually worked and I get it.  Can't remember the last established guy they signed coming off a good year, maybe Kimbrel?  It would be nice to go into ST without huge pen questions everywhere, but probably not going to happen.  As long as there's enough quality depth to cover for inevitable injuries i'm good.

[Stratos]

So if we imagine the Cubs sign Bellinger, Hoskins, some other part-time DH/corner bat, one of the remaining 4 top SP (or SP trade), and some solid arms to improve the pen, how many wins do you project for this team?

Not many clear holes on that team.  I'd be satisfied with this offseason.  I like their depth a lot in the upper minors.  If they can cobble together a quality pen I can see them reaching around 90 wins or near.  Let's say 88 wins with potential for a few more.  Hoskins and another corner bat should hopefully be a significant upgrade over Mancini/Hosmer from last year.  Canario and Mervis could contribute somehow too, along with a bunch of potential prospect call-ups in the 2nd half.  Counsell hopefully gets the most out of the roster.

[Derwood]

ALL FA TEAM:

C Victor Caratini
1B Rhys Hoskins
2B Whit Merrifield
3B Matt Chapman
SS Amed Rosario
LF Joc Pederson
CF Cody Bellinger
RF Teoscar Hernandez
DH Carlos Santana

Bench: Brandon Belt, Justin Turner, Elvis Andrus, Brandon Crawford, Michael Taylor

SP Blake Snell
SP Marcus Stroman
SP Jordan Montgomery
SP Clayton Kershaw
SP Brandon Woodruff

Bullpen: Josh Hader, Hector Neris, Matt Moore, Dave Robertson, Jakob Junis, Aroldis Chapman

Who wins in ALL-FA vs. Cubs in a seven game series?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Caratini isn't a FA. I ain't checking the rest of your list.

[Derwood]

Just now, Ding Dong Johnson said:

Caratini isn't a FA. I ain't checking the rest of your list.

are you here to tell me that the site I randomly googled is incorrect?

[squally1313]

16 hours ago, Bertz said:

Thinking out loud, if you pulled down Alonso, Imanaga, and traded for Jansen with Boston covering ~half his salary, you would have filled the three biggest holes on the roster with legit 1st division talents.  You'd also, we suspect, have $20-30M more to play with.  You could at that point more confidently play a game of chicken with Boras for Chapman/Bellinger, do the Bieber/Naylor deal, or build Counsell a bullpen of doom with e.g Robertson + Stephenson.

I don't know if I would have liked this path on November 1, but I definitely don't mind it now. Keep all the top prospects out of the Alonso and Jansen deals, no problem rolling with Wisdom/Nick/fine I'll mention Morel here at third, and if that Bellinger market collapses, you fit him into the budget comfortably and also now get to decide what to do with a semi-redundant PCA. 

[Rcal10]

23 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

I don't know if I would have liked this path on November 1, but I definitely don't mind it now. Keep all the top prospects out of the Alonso and Jansen deals, no problem rolling with Wisdom/Nick/fine I'll mention Morel here at third, and if that Bellinger market collapses, you fit him into the budget comfortably and also now get to decide what to do with a semi-redundant PCA. 

I agree Morel is a long shot for 3rd. Which sucks. Because if he could do it the Bellinger signing works, even with PCA. Just play the 5 guys as 3 outfielders, a DH and  1st baseman. And rotate them. Bellinger would sort of a super utility guy filling in everywhere. If Morel has to DH there is not room for Bellinger and PCA on the same team provided Alonso is at 1st. 

[squally1313]

12 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

I agree Morel is a long shot for 3rd. Which sucks. Because if he could do it the Bellinger signing works, even with PCA. Just play the 5 guys as 3 outfielders, a DH and  1st baseman. And rotate them. Bellinger would sort of a super utility guy filling in everywhere. If Morel has to DH there is not room for Bellinger and PCA on the same team provided Alonso is at 1st. 

There's still a rough fit....PCA hasn't earned a starting role, Bellinger and PCA are almost definitely capable of taking 20-30 starts in the corners. This is mostly devils advocate here, since I think the utility of PCA as a trade asset in a Bellinger future is better than what I'm about to lay out, but:

• 3B: Wisdom/Madrigal, the end. Reinforce at the deadline if necessary.
• LF: Happ 130 games, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• CF: Bellinger 100, PCA 60
• RF: Suzuki 130, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• 1B: Alonso 130, Bellinger 30
• DH: Morel 100, Alonso 20, Happ 20, Suzuki 20

That puts you at

• Bellinger 160
• Happ 150
• Suzuki 150
• Morel 100
• PCA 90

If you think that's too down on Morel, give Happ and Suzuki 10 more spots in the corners. Basically: it can work. I think it can also work (better) with Tauchman, Canario, etc playing the PCA role and/or like, a JD Martinez/Justin Turner playing the Morel role plus whatever pitching that gets us. 

[CubinNY]

57 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

There's still a rough fit....PCA hasn't earned a starting role, Bellinger and PCA are almost definitely capable of taking 20-30 starts in the corners. This is mostly devils advocate here, since I think the utility of PCA as a trade asset in a Bellinger future is better than what I'm about to lay out, but:

• 3B: Wisdom/Madrigal, the end. Reinforce at the deadline if necessary.
• LF: Happ 130 games, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• CF: Bellinger 100, PCA 60
• RF: Suzuki 130, Bellinger 15, PCA 15
• 1B: Alonso 130, Bellinger 30
• DH: Morel 100, Alonso 20, Happ 20, Suzuki 20

That puts you at

• Bellinger 160
• Happ 150
• Suzuki 150
• Morel 100
• PCA 90

If you think that's too down on Morel, give Happ and Suzuki 10 more spots in the corners. Basically: it can work. I think it can also work (better) with Tauchman, Canario, etc playing the PCA role and/or like, a JD Martinez/Justin Turner playing the Morel role plus whatever pitching that gets us. 

Agree. I like the idea of PCA getting a soft landing into MLB. If he's that good, he's worth a lot in a trade or you move Happ or Suzuki to DH

[Bertz]

You would presume if Tommy is saying this on the radio then this is the plan.  A bit of a shame because I have preferred a two SP plan since we missed on the elite bats.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

[Tryptamine]

Tommy, you might have to nudge Jed awake if you want that wish list to have any chance of coming to fruition. 

[chibears55]

1 hour ago, Bertz said:

You would presume if Tommy is saying this on the radio then this is the plan.  A bit of a shame because I have preferred a two SP plan since we missed on the elite bats.

 

The bullpen need my guess would be a LH and a closer.

I can see why he would say 1 SP, they have Steele, Hendricks, Taillon,  and a bunch of younger guys to start the season with. 

[chibears55]

Cubs are probably holding tight on 6 yrs and 150 for Bellinger, maybe go up to 7/175 and hoping noone goes to 200. 

I'd be surprise if a team gives him the 250 he looking for

[LBiittner]

9 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

Cubs are probably holding tight on 6 yrs and 150 for Bellinger, maybe go up to 7/175 and hoping noone goes to 200. 

I'd be surprise if a team gives him the 250 he looking for

Who does JED pay more:

Swanson 7yr @ 177m

Belli ?

[LBiittner]

18 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

The bullpen need my guess would be a LH and a closer.

I can see why he would say 1 SP, they have Steele, Hendricks, Taillon,  and a bunch of younger guys to start the season with. 

You forgot Smyly  lol 

Because he WILL be in the mix.

[squally1313]

26 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

The bullpen need my guess would be a LH and a closer.

I can see why he would say 1 SP, they have Steele, Hendricks, Taillon,  and a bunch of younger guys to start the season with. 

That's like, 2.5 pitchers at most, in an era where you need at least 5, ideally 6 or more. I love Kyle Hendricks more than anyone and absolutely enjoyed his little renaissance last year, but if he's the second starter you're listing off, that means we need a TON of starting pitching. 

[Bertz]

Thinking through this a bit more, in my mind:

- You've got to pull down one of the lefties or one of the more primo trade targets.  I like Bieber and think he's become underrated but you can't grab him and then declare mission accomplished on the SP front

- You pretty much need to pull down one of Chapman/Bellinger.  CF, 3B, and #5 SP are spots on the roster that I look at and think "It'll probably be fine?"  But one of the costs of foregoing a true star like Soto is you can't have two many of those landmine type positions lying around.  If you're not addressing the pitching one you damn sure need to address one, ideally both, of the offensive ones

- This would seem to increase the odds Morel sticks around?  Most of the hypothetical Morel trades were to add a second, less expensive SP.  Not that you can't do Cease, Valdez, or Luzardo and include Morel, but it seems much less likely than just signing Imanaga or Montgomery

- Adding two RPs makes it that much more likely one of them is like a boring Phil Maton/Brent Suter type.  Let me just go on record right now about how much I hate adding that type of reliever this winter.  Relief help should either be impact types or have minor league options, no exceptions 

[Jason Ross]

8 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Thinking through this a bit more, in my mind:

- You've got to pull down one of the lefties or one of the more primo trade targets.  I like Bieber and think he's become underrated but you can't grab him and then declare mission accomplished on the SP front

- You pretty much need to pull down one of Chapman/Bellinger.  CF, 3B, and #5 SP are spots on the roster that I look at and think "It'll probably be fine?"  But one of the costs of foregoing a true star like Soto is you can't have two many of those landmine type positions lying around.  If you're not addressing the pitching one you damn sure need to address one, ideally both, of the offensive ones

- This would seem to increase the odds Morel sticks around?  Most of the hypothetical Morel trades were to add a second, less expensive SP.  Not that you can't do Cease, Valdez, or Luzardo and include Morel, but it seems much less likely than just signing Imanaga or Montgomery

- Adding two RPs makes it that much more likely one of them is like a boring Phil Maton/Brent Suter type.  Let me just go on record right now about how much I hate adding that type of reliever this winter.  Relief help should either be impact types or have minor league options, no exceptions 

Yeah, the "One SP, two RP" thing isn't particularly what I wanted to hear. It likely means Brent Suter and I agree: impact or MiLB options. RP's are so volatile, locking yourself into mediocrity like Suter is asking for a bad ride. Not that he will be, but it's begging for one. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The caveat that I would give is that it still persistently sounds like they're trying multiple trade angles, and if part of getting their preferred targets means some of the bullpen depth goes out the door, then I don't mind a middle reliever signing.  But if it's a situation where only like 1 of Wesneski/Assad/Brown are leaving, then save your bullets for elsewhere and keep trying your hand at finding another Leiter or Merryweather for essentially free.

 

As an aside, I kinda wonder if there's a RP we have penciled in that the team has basically written off, at least for the opening day roster.  You saw with Wick that they are not afraid of being preemptive with middle relievers not getting a roster spot on past reputation even if they haven't collapsed, and there's a spot or two(looking at you, Leiter) that could be ripe for a similar move.

[chibears55]

48 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

That's like, 2.5 pitchers at most, in an era where you need at least 5, ideally 6 or more. I love Kyle Hendricks more than anyone and absolutely enjoyed his little renaissance last year, but if he's the second starter you're listing off, that means we need a TON of starting pitching. 

I dont disagree with you, I was hoping they would of let Hendricks go.

I was just saying that probably why Hottovy said one starter was needed. He counting on the 3 I mentioned,  Smyly and the younger guys.  Maybe his 1 starter wish is a TOR type that moves Steele to 2 in the rotation. 

[chibears55]

With the Convention 9 days away, you have to think they will make a significant signing and or Trade by then.

Can you imagine going into the Convention with Craig Counsell as the only major addition to the team ?

[Rcal10]

12 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

With the Convention 9 days away, you have to think they will make a significant signing and or Trade by then.

Can you imagine going into the Convention with Craig Counsell as the only major addition to the team ?

Sadly, yes I can.