Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

31 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Jed is 1) setting expectations/maintaining leverage/being noncommittal like basically every exec 2) 1000% correct.  Doesn't mean he can't be too conservative with the moves he does make, but teams that are consistently excellent very rarely are the ones making a flurry of high profile moves.  You can and be successful in the short term and maybe longer if you're good/lucky, but the Padres and Mets provide a very visceral example that it's not that simple.

This argument gets old. The Cubs are a major market. They have money to spend. In fact the only advantage they have over the lower market teams is their ability to spend. If/when they choose to not do it they are deciding to not take advantage of the knee advantage they have. I am not suggesting they need to throw money around foolishly. But they can decide they want a guy and get him NO MATTER THE COST! They can be aggressive and get the best players every so often instead of saddling for who will take their deals. Sure teams spend and then don’t win. So what. If you are a top revenue team that shouldn’t stop you from spending. Teams like the Padres do have to pull back, because they aren’t major market. But the Cubs shouldn’t have to. 
Now, that doesn’t mean I blame him for not getting Ohtani or Soto. If he gave a competitive offer and Ohtani just didn’t want to play here, I guess there is nothing he could do about it. And, IMO, the Yankees overpaid for Soto. So I am okay with that. But they should still spend. They should be over the LT this year by either signing a few other guys and my trading for guys who might come with some salary. And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

[Tryptamine]

Just now, Rcal10 said:

This argument gets old. The Cubs are a major market. They have money to spend. In fact the only advantage they have over the lower market teams is their ability to spend. If/when they choose to not do it they are deciding to not take advantage of the knee advantage they have. I am not suggesting they need to throw money around foolishly. But they can decide they want a guy and get him NO MATTER THE COST! They can be aggressive and get the best players every so often instead of saddling for who will take their deals. Sure teams spend and then don’t win. So what. If you are a top revenue team that shouldn’t stop you from spending. Teams like the Padres do have to pull back, because they aren’t major market. But the Cubs shouldn’t have to. 
Now, that doesn’t mean I blame him for not getting Ohtani or Soto. If he gave a competitive offer and Ohtani just didn’t want to play here, I guess there is nothing he could do about it. And, IMO, the Yankees overpaid for Soto. So I am okay with that. But they should still spend. They should be over the LT this year by either signing a few other guys and my trading for guys who might come with some salary. And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

They are, in fact, at a disadvantage if they don't choose to flex their financial muscle. The rest of the division is collecting competitive balance picks and I believe additional international funds as well.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This argument gets old. The Cubs are a major market. They have money to spend. In fact the only advantage they have over the lower market teams is their ability to spend. If/when they choose to not do it they are deciding to not take advantage of the knee advantage they have. I am not suggesting they need to throw money around foolishly. But they can decide they want a guy and get him NO MATTER THE COST! They can be aggressive and get the best players every so often instead of saddling for who will take their deals. Sure teams spend and then don’t win. So what. If you are a top revenue team that shouldn’t stop you from spending. Teams like the Padres do have to pull back, because they aren’t major market. But the Cubs shouldn’t have to. 

 

Think about how many teams this paragraph can accurately apply to, I think at least 7?  What does that mean in a leaner market where there are only a couple big prizes and they have fairly universal appeal(DH/OF and SP)?

 

16 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Now, that doesn’t mean I blame him for not getting Ohtani or Soto. If he gave a competitive offer and Ohtani just didn’t want to play here, I guess there is nothing he could do about it. And, IMO, the Yankees overpaid for Soto. So I am okay with that. But they should still spend. They should be over the LT this year by either signing a few other guys and my trading for guys who might come with some salary. And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

 

If they aren't over the LT this offseason, barring incredible circumstances I would agree.  I just don't think that is at all likely.  Jed says a variation on the same thing every offseason and last offseason he added about 80 million AAV in Free Agency to a team that won 74 games.  If you're taking these comments as an indicator that they're not going to add a bunch of payroll the rest of the offseason, I think that's a reflection of your prior conception.

[Bertz]

Post Ohtani, I'm really all in in one beefing the hell out of the pitching staff.  Something like Glasnow, Imanaga, Robert Stephenson, and Tanner Scott.  You'd be looking at a pitching staff of:

SP - Steele, Glasnow, Imanaga, Hendricks, Taillon

RP - Adbert, Scott, Stephenson, Merryweather, Leiter, Smyly, Cuas, Assad

That is a fairly monstrous pitching staff, particularly when you think about how much talent is down at Iowa ready to step in for injury. 

Eyeballing it that would project to 18ish WAR, which would be 3rd on Fangraphs behind the Phillies and Braves.  And between the youths and the conservative estimates on innings for Glasnow/Imanaga there's plenty of additional ceiling.

The above is $55-60M, which might limit you to only one bat of consequence.  So maybe swap Stephenson out for more of a Hunter Harvey type?  But regardless I don't think it takes a ton to keep the offense flat-ish with last year, and there is more than enough quality pitching available to put together a staff that will absolutely embarrass any non-Braves lineup.

 

 

[Stratos]

11 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

This argument gets old. The Cubs are a major market. They have money to spend. In fact the only advantage they have over the lower market teams is their ability to spend. If/when they choose to not do it they are deciding to not take advantage of the knee advantage they have. I am not suggesting they need to throw money around foolishly. But they can decide they want a guy and get him NO MATTER THE COST! They can be aggressive and get the best players every so often instead of saddling for who will take their deals. Sure teams spend and then don’t win. So what. If you are a top revenue team that shouldn’t stop you from spending. Teams like the Padres do have to pull back, because they aren’t major market. But the Cubs shouldn’t have to. 
Now, that doesn’t mean I blame him for not getting Ohtani or Soto. If he gave a competitive offer and Ohtani just didn’t want to play here, I guess there is nothing he could do about it. And, IMO, the Yankees overpaid for Soto. So I am okay with that. But they should still spend. They should be over the LT this year by either signing a few other guys and my trading for guys who might come with some salary. And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

Jed has stated time and again that their goal is to sign good contracts and make good transactions, and if you do that year after year you will be successful.  He doesn't target 1 or 2 guys he NEEDS to have in the offseason and sign "no matter the cost", he targets a bunch of good players they like and signs the guy who is the best value contract.

He signed Suzuki, Stroman, Swanson, Bellinger etc and those were good contracts.  Taillon may also turn out to be a good contract, and was at the time it was signed.  He extended Happ and Nico.  He just nabbed us the best manager in baseball for the cost of a 1 WAR player but without adding to the payroll under the LT.  Besides Mancini and a meh Smyly deal, he's spending our money wisely.

Swanson and Bellinger were 2 of the best contracts signed last offseason and everyone was crying about missing on Bogaerts and Turner.  Those contracts suck.  Does he get credit for passing on Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Correa, Verlander, Conforto, Bell, Vazquez?

I agree we should be over the LT this year and if we aren't the blame should be on Ricketts.

 

 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, Tryptamine said:

They are, in fact, at a disadvantage if they don't choose to flex their financial muscle. The rest of the division is collecting competitive balance picks and I believe additional international funds as well.

Exactly! That is my point. 

[Rcal10]

47 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jed has stated time and again that their goal is to sign good contracts and make good transactions, and if you do that year after year you will be successful.  He doesn't target 1 or 2 guys he NEEDS to have in the offseason and sign "no matter the cost", he targets a bunch of good players they like and signs the guy who is the best value contract.

He signed Suzuki, Stroman, Swanson, Bellinger etc and those were good contracts.  Taillon may also turn out to be a good contract, and was at the time it was signed.  He extended Happ and Nico.  He just nabbed us the best manager in baseball for the cost of a 1 WAR player but without adding to the payroll under the LT.  Besides Mancini and a meh Smyly deal, he's spending our money wisely.

Swanson and Bellinger were 2 of the best contracts signed last offseason and everyone was crying about missing on Bogaerts and Turner.  Those contracts suck.  Does he get credit for passing on Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Correa, Verlander, Conforto, Bell, Vazquez?

I agree we should be over the LT this year and if we aren't the blame should be on Ricketts.

 

 

I am definitely more in the camp that the issue is more Ricketts than Hoyer. I think if it was Hoyer and Ricketts wanted him to spend whatever is necessary, and he didn’t, he would be fired.
It is still early and maybe they do end up putting a 90+ win team in the field this year. Doesn’t have to be Ohtani or Soto. But if they do  not and constantly lose out on guys to lesser teams the FO/ownership has to be held accountable. No excuse not to be good in 24’, PERIOD! 

[Rcal10]

53 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Jed has stated time and again that their goal is to sign good contracts and make good transactions, and if you do that year after year you will be successful.  He doesn't target 1 or 2 guys he NEEDS to have in the offseason and sign "no matter the cost", he targets a bunch of good players they like and signs the guy who is the best value contract.

He signed Suzuki, Stroman, Swanson, Bellinger etc and those were good contracts.  Taillon may also turn out to be a good contract, and was at the time it was signed.  He extended Happ and Nico.  He just nabbed us the best manager in baseball for the cost of a 1 WAR player but without adding to the payroll under the LT.  Besides Mancini and a meh Smyly deal, he's spending our money wisely.

Swanson and Bellinger were 2 of the best contracts signed last offseason and everyone was crying about missing on Bogaerts and Turner.  Those contracts suck.  Does he get credit for passing on Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Correa, Verlander, Conforto, Bell, Vazquez?

I agree we should be over the LT this year and if we aren't the blame should be on Ricketts.

 

 

As a major market team they don’t always have to bow out of contracts when they feel the overall cost is greater than the overall value. Sometimes major market teams have to spend to get a star they know at the end of the contract might not look great. Harper is a perfect example. He was been awesome as a Phillie. And they have had 2 very fun years. Eventually he won’t be worth his money. But right now he makes them very good. Actually Lester is also an example of this. The last few years of his contract he was t worth the money. But they won a damn  WS with him so who cares? 

[CubinNY]

1 hour ago, Stratos said:

Jed has stated time and again that their goal is to sign good contracts and make good transactions, and if you do that year after year you will be successful.  He doesn't target 1 or 2 guys he NEEDS to have in the offseason and sign "no matter the cost", he targets a bunch of good players they like and signs the guy who is the best value contract.

He signed Suzuki, Stroman, Swanson, Bellinger etc and those were good contracts.  Taillon may also turn out to be a good contract, and was at the time it was signed.  He extended Happ and Nico.  He just nabbed us the best manager in baseball for the cost of a 1 WAR player but without adding to the payroll under the LT.  Besides Mancini and a meh Smyly deal, he's spending our money wisely.

Swanson and Bellinger were 2 of the best contracts signed last offseason and everyone was crying about missing on Bogaerts and Turner.  Those contracts suck.  Does he get credit for passing on Abreu, Rodon, DeGrom, Correa, Verlander, Conforto, Bell, Vazquez?

I agree we should be over the LT this year and if we aren't the blame should be on Ricketts.

 

 

He’s value contracting them to mediocrity! Go Jed! 

[squally1313]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

 And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

44 of the top 50 free agents remain unsigned. 

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

44 of the top 50 free agents remain unsigned. 

Not basing my comments on his actions. More the words in his interview. But maybe he was playing possum and has a grand plan. I hope so. Who knows, maybe then Ohtani dream isn’t dead. 

[gocubs218]

The payroll last year was at 230 million. Can we stop acting like Jed is spending like the Pirates. You may have a problem with how he is spending the money but it doesn’t mean that he isn’t. 

[squally1313]

15 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Not basing my comments on his actions. More the words in his interview. But maybe he was playing possum and has a grand plan. I hope so. Who knows, maybe then Ohtani dream isn’t dead. 

Shohei Ohtani does not determine whether or not Jed is 'conceding the offseason'. When Ohtani signs, there will still be 43 other free agents. 

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

As a major market team they don’t always have to bow out of contracts when they feel the overall cost is greater than the overall value. Sometimes major market teams have to spend to get a star they know at the end of the contract might not look great. Harper is a perfect example. He was been awesome as a Phillie. And they have had 2 very fun years. Eventually he won’t be worth his money. But right now he makes them very good. Actually Lester is also an example of this. The last few years of his contract he was t worth the money. But they won a damn  WS with him so who cares? 

You can live with 1/3 of the contract being lame at the end.  It might happen with Swanson.  You'd probably be singing a different tune if Lester signed for 10 years and was still on the payroll next season so Jed couldn't afford someone like Yamamoto or Glasnow this year, or Swanson last year and this year, or whomever.  Increase the Cubs payroll by 60 million and you'd still be eating 28 million worth of wins/talent from the team because of Lester's contract.

If Jed thinks e.g. Yamamoto is good enough to be worth 10/300 and worth the risk of never pitching in the MLB then he'll go for it IMO.  We'll probably never agree on this, so agree to disagree.  I just don't think the short-term dopamine hit of signing a "star" is worth a mega-contract very likely being terrible 5 years from now and dealing with half a decade of worse teams.

Edited December 8, 2023 by Stratos

[17 Seconds]

5 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

And I just don’t think they will based on Jed already basically conceding the off season.

he didn't do that at all

[Rcal10]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

You can live with 1/3 of the contract being lame at the end.  It might happen with Swanson.  You'd probably be singing a different tune if Lester signed for 10 years and was still on the payroll next season so Jed couldn't afford someone like Yamamoto or Glasnow this year, or Swanson last year and this year, or whomever.  Increase the Cubs payroll by 60 million and you'd still be eating 28 million worth of wins/talent from the team because of Lester's contract.

If Jed thinks e.g. Yamamoto is good enough to be worth 10/300 and worth the risk of never pitching in the MLB then he'll go for it IMO.  We'll probably never agree on this, so agree to disagree.  I just don't think the short-term dopamine hit of signing a "star" is worth a mega-contract very likely being terrible 5 years from now and dealing with half a decade of worse teams.

So you never want the top super star players in the Cubs. I already knew that. Luckily for you Ricketts and Hoyer agree with you. They are very happy to be an average team 

[Tim]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

So you never want the top super star players in the Cubs. I already knew that. Luckily for you Ricketts and Hoyer agree with you. They are very happy to be an average team 

This is overly dramatic. 

They (everyone referenced) want those players on the Cubs. They simply want the first half of their careers, not the second half.

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, 17 Seconds said:

he didn't do that at all

Look, everyone who wants to defend Jed and suggest there is still a long way to go in the off season can. I have no problem with that. And you are all correct, there is a lot of time and the Cubs could make big moves. It isn’t a big deal he hasn’t done anything yet. My frustration comes more from his words than his lack of action so far. He did say winning the off season ends up being  a curse rather than a blessing often. Now, maybe I am jumping the gun on that statement. Maybe I am reading too much into that statement. But to me, anyway, that is his way of preparing the Cubs fanbase for an off season that will not be as aggressive as most of us hoped. I would love to come back on this topic sometime right before spring training and say I was wrong for overreacting. I would love to say I let my frustration get the better of me and I jumped to conclusions. I want the Cubs to prove me wrong on what I thought he meant by those words. But IMO this off season is going to be similar to the last one where in the end the Cubs will put a decent team on the field who should win low 80’s again, and if they overachieved maybe win 90 and get in the playoffs. I was just hoping for (and may still get)more. 

[Rcal10]

8 hours ago, Tim said:

This is overly dramatic. 

They (everyone referenced) want those players on the Cubs. They simply want the first half of their careers, not the second half.

But is that realistic? To get the superstar you have to offer what others are offering. If the industry is offering 10-12 year deals how do you expect the Cubs to get that star player offering 5-6? I am not particularly crazy about giving out 10+ year deals either. But if the jndustry is offering that, and you want a guy bad enough you have to be willing to pony up like the others. 

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just give it a rest until like February or something

[PeanutPunch33]

Yamamoto or Bellinger returning almost seems like a must have now. Total failure off season if they can’t do that 

[We Got The Whole 9]

16 minutes ago, PeanutPunch33 said:

Yamamoto or Bellinger returning almost seems like a must have now. Total failure off season if they can’t do that 

What are you talking about? Bellinger's contract is an albatross waiting to land. There are so many FA left and trades that can happen. You guys are ridiculous.

[Rcal10]

26 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Just give it a rest until like February or something

Actually this is what people do during the off season. They comment as things are happening. There are pages and pages of Ohtani talk and he hasn’t even signed yet. Suggesting the words Hoyer used about winning the off season frustrating me is exactly what is being discussed now. Yes, in February things will be different. And maybe Jed’s words don’t match his actions. I have acknowledged that. Maybe he will be aggressive, maybe we will get Ohtani. My comment is strictly based on what he said. 

[PeanutPunch33]

52 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What are you talking about? Bellinger's contract is an albatross waiting to land. There are so many FA left and trades that can happen. You guys are ridiculous.

lol who cares.  They had like the 6th best run differential last year, it’s time to go for it.  Anybody in this fan base that thinks like you do is being ridiculous and how you end up 108 years without a championship 

Revolutionary idea here maybe they can do what you said and also spend in FA 

[Rcal10]

1 hour ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

What are you talking about? Bellinger's contract is an albatross waiting to land. There are so many FA left and trades that can happen. You guys are ridiculous.

I go back and forth on Bellinger. I know people have concerns about his hard hit rate, EV, barrel rate and all of that. But part of that is because with 2 strikes he made a conscience effort to just slap the ball. That would cause issues with all of that. He did produce. And sometimes guys just produce bette than their underlying numbers. That said, I have no interest in him if he is talking $300M. Honestly not even interested in the $200M plus range. But if they were able to do a Swanson like deal AND they kept him in centerfield, I wouldn’t mind having him back. Of course, this would mean moving PCA. And I would be fine with that as long as he brought back at least 2 quality major league players with maybe 3 years of control left. Maybe to a team looking to rebuild for a player or two staring to get expensive. If he isn’t going to be in center and/or someone else is willing to give him $200M+ I am fine with not getting him.