Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Bertz]

1 hour ago, chibears55 said:

That pretty much the norm, and even during the meetings not too much happens.

I think most of the transactions get done right before the Holidays and right after for the most part

Nah this is unusually chilly.  Only having Nola signed amongst the big boys is normal, but having so little done amongst the mid and lower tiers of FA by Thanksgiving is very abnormal 

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, Bertz said:

Nah this is unusually chilly.  Only having Nola signed amongst the big boys is normal, but having so little done amongst the mid and lower tiers of FA by Thanksgiving is very abnormal 

Well the Cardinals did sign 2 pitchers. I think Atlanta signed Lopez. There has been some movement. Cubs signed a lefty out of Japan😬

[gocubs218]

26 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

The 60 win Rangers were built to win it all when they signed Seager and Semien? Were the 80 win Phillies ready when they signed Harper?

Were the Cubs ready when they signed Lester? We could go on and on. 

[gocubs218]

I

Edited November 26, 2023 by gocubs218
Double post

[chibears55]

31 minutes ago, ILMindState said:

The 60 win Rangers were built to win it all when they signed Seager and Semien? Were the 80 win Phillies ready when they signed Harper?

So you're ok for them to commit 500 mil to one guy if they're not going to add anymore upgrades/payroll to the roster because they don't wanna go pass the Threshold for multiple seasons ?

Rangers added more then just 1 guy, they added over 800 mil in payroll on multiple players to improve themselves.

Harper was 26 when he signed his deal with the Phillies 

[chibears55]

32 minutes ago, KCCub said:

Or you lock up the once in a lifetime player and you continue to add pieces over his tenure. It’s much easier to build around a superstar. If they pass on Ohtani because they feel they aren’t WS ready, then everyone in the front office should be let go. 

That what I said in my OP and response..

If they are going to add to the payroll with upgrades to the roster over these next w offseasons and not worry about the Threshold,  then yea go get him.

Otherwise no, I wouldn't want them to commit 40 to 50 mil per year on one guy, who gonna be 30, that gonna eat up most of the payroll for the next 10 to 15 years.

[KCCub]

4 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

That what I said in my OP and response..

If they are going to add to the payroll with upgrades to the roster over these next w offseasons and not worry about the Threshold,  then yea go get him.

Otherwise no, I wouldn't want them to commit 40 to 50 mil per year on one guy, who gonna be 30, that gonna eat up most of the payroll for the next 10 to 15 years.

I hate to break it to you, but if the Cubs are only spending $50m towards next years salary cap, spreading that out over multiple players isn’t moving the needle. If my choice is Ohtani or two players for that $50m, give me Ohtani. You’re missing one large elephant in the room - Ohtani will be in the starting rotation year 2. This isn’t just about next year….

[chibears55]

34 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

By saying they shouldn’t go $500M for 10+ years you are basically saying they shouldn’t go after Ohtani. You can’t say they should go after him and then the next sentence say they shouldn’t go long years or crazy money. Getting Ohtani might not take $500M, but it will take either crazy long years or crazy annual salary and probably both. 

Don't know why this is so hard to understand what I'm saying..

If there no intentions on adding additional payroll to the roster to upgrade it other then just adding Ohtani and his 40-50 mil per because they don't want to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons and pay penalties,  then NO id rather they pass on Ohtani because this roster isn't good enough even with him to win a WS championship in the next couple seasons and it would be a waste.

BUT

IF they do intend on upgrading this roster with added payroll this offseason and next, and not care about the Threshold because they're going all in on competing for a WS championship with Ohtani over the next 5 to 6 seasons ,  then YES go get him.

[chibears55]

22 minutes ago, gocubs218 said:

Were the Cubs ready when they signed Lester? We could go on and on. 

Lester only cost 20 and 25 mil per his first 2 seasons and they added around him with Heyward,  Zobrist, Ross, Lackey, and it was a 7 yr deal.

Big Big difference then just adding Ohtani for 40 to 50 per  for 10 to 15 yrs, and not really adding much around him if that would be their intentions because of the Threshold. 

[chibears55]

6 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I hate to break it to you, but if the Cubs are only spending $50m towards next years salary cap, spreading that out over multiple players isn’t moving the needle. If my choice is Ohtani or two players for that $50m, give me Ohtani. You’re missing one large elephant in the room - Ohtani will be in the starting rotation year 2. This isn’t just about next year….

No spending just 50 to 60 mil on multiple players to stay under Threshold is not moving the needle much but itll move if spent on the right players,  but now,  how much of a needle mover will it be if theyre just adding Ohtani and scrap with the 50 to 60 mil they have to spend to stay under the Threshold and Ohtani is getting the bulk of that added money ?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

The odds of the team not going into the luxury tax if they sign Ohtani is 0%, if the hesitation is that they won't make other marginal upgrades on top of Ohtani then you do not have to worry about it.  They may still be mindful of the 2nd and especially 3rd level(since that has draft and compounding monetary penalties), but they wouldn't be pursuing Ohtani if he was taking up 95+% of their money to spend, they probably wouldn't have picked up Hendricks' option, etc.

[KCCub]

2 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

No spending just 50 to 60 mil on multiple players to stay under Threshold is not moving the needle much but itll move if spent on the right players,  but now,  how much of a needle mover will it be if theyre just adding Ohtani and scrap with the 50 to 60 mil they have to spend to stay under the Threshold and Ohtani is getting the bulk of that added money ?

Your scenarios are just not logical. I can promise you Ohtani will not be the only move they make if they land him. If they aren’t willing to spend on other big FAs, they would be extremely active in the trade market to land cost controlled guys. You’re worrying about a scenario that isn’t going to happen. Like I said, this isn’t only about next season. Year 2 of Ohtani you get his arm, which is like landing a top SP FA in 2025 (I understand if there is hesitation on how he well he’ll pitch post surgery).

[ILMindState]

48 minutes ago, chibears55 said:

So you're ok for them to commit 500 mil to one guy if they're not going to add anymore upgrades/payroll to the roster because they don't wanna go pass the Threshold for multiple seasons ?

Rangers added more then just 1 guy, they added over 800 mil in payroll on multiple players to improve themselves.

Harper was 26 when he signed his deal with the Phillies 

If you’re convincing Ohtani to sign with your team then your sales pitch includes a plan to get better and compete while he’s signed. They’re not just gonna sign him and become the Bulls and do nothing for multiple seasons. 

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

Your scenarios are just not logical. I can promise you Ohtani will not be the only move they make if they land him. If they aren’t willing to spend on other big FAs, they would be extremely active in the trade market to land cost controlled guys. You’re worrying about a scenario that isn’t going to happen. Like I said, this isn’t only about next season. Year 2 of Ohtani you get his arm, which is like landing a top SP FA in 2025 (I understand if there is hesitation on how he well he’ll pitch post surgery).

Their payroll for this season sits at 186 mil right now, the Threshold is 237 mil, adding Ohtani will would put them close to that Threshold,  so adding any additional upgraded payroll will put them way over this season. 

So yes, it would be Ohtani and scrap for this season to stay under the Threshold, if that their intention. 

But..

You guys questioning this has made me take a good look at their future payroll and where the LT will be, and I will now admit that after this season they will have plenty of room to add additional payroll to not worry too much about the LT after this season and go after a couple guys that will cost 20 plus per to the payroll and stay under the LT with Ohtani money.

So then basically it a matter of this season and whether or not they want to add upgrades where they can with Ohtani and surpass the LT or add Ohtani and wait til next offseason to add those bigger upgrades when they have more room to spend. 

But yes I'm seeing now that Ohtani money will not affect future payroll much after this coming season and more so after the 2026 season. 

[chibears55]

1 minute ago, ILMindState said:

If you’re convincing Ohtani to sign with your team then your sales pitch includes a plan to get better and compete while he’s signed. They’re not just gonna sign him and become the Bulls and do nothing for multiple seasons. 

See my post above,  I looked at their future payroll and see that after this coming season, theyll have plenty of room going forward.   I was under the belief that their payroll was a little tight for the next 5 seasons for whatever reason 

[KCCub]

I’ll add one last thing. IMO it’s best practice to lock up the available superstar now if your team is in the market, because future FA’s aren’t a guarantee vs waiting and trying to get one the following year. Remember when the plan was to sign one of Devers/Machado? It’s much easier to build around the superstar than hoping for one to come available and ultimately sign with your team. 

[Bertz]

3 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I’ll add one last thing. IMO it’s best practice to lock up the available superstar now if your team is in the market, because future FA’s aren’t a guarantee vs waiting and trying to get one the following year. Remember when the plan was to sign one of Devers/Machado? It’s much easier to build around the superstar than hoping for one to come available and ultimately sign with your team. 

I think this is true, but the trap a lot of fans fall into is treating stars like superstars.  Regular stars are very much guys who you should be really mindful of when and which you sign.  I think the fanbase is falling into this trap with Bellinger now and was doing it with Stroman back in June.

But like Ohtani is the super-est of superstars.  He is a unicorn and not particularly close to being an edge case.  He is absolutely a "sign him and figure the rest out later" guy, and if he's not I'm not sure who is.

[Stratos]

On 11/25/2023 at 5:36 PM, CubinNY said:

If he has opt outs the number of years are meaningless. I expect it will be a “creative” contract with multiple opt outs and team options/buyouts.

I don't think it's meaningless, because he may not use the opt-outs, like if he doesn't come back pitching as well as before.

It's a pretty massive risk for a team to pay Ohtani like he's the ace pitcher he's been on a decade+ long deal when he just had major elbow surgery.  I can definitely see something to protect a team from that risk plus player opt-outs in case he does come back 100%, which would be the whole point of an opt-out.

Edited November 26, 2023 by Stratos

[Stratos]

17 hours ago, ToolDRT said:

What happened?

i was just testing the profanity censorship system here on these boards LOL

[ToolDRT]

3 minutes ago, Stratos said:

i was just testing the profanity censorship system here on these boards LOL

You nearly killed me! It was 1am and I thought you found Ohtani news somewhere 🤣🤣

[Rcal10]

2 hours ago, chibears55 said:

Their payroll for this season sits at 186 mil right now, the Threshold is 237 mil, adding Ohtani will would put them close to that Threshold,  so adding any additional upgraded payroll will put them way over this season. 

So yes, it would be Ohtani and scrap for this season to stay under the Threshold, if that their intention. 

But..

You guys questioning this has made me take a good look at their future payroll and where the LT will be, and I will now admit that after this season they will have plenty of room to add additional payroll to not worry too much about the LT after this season and go after a couple guys that will cost 20 plus per to the payroll and stay under the LT with Ohtani money.

So then basically it a matter of this season and whether or not they want to add upgrades where they can with Ohtani and surpass the LT or add Ohtani and wait til next offseason to add those bigger upgrades when they have more room to spend. 

But yes I'm seeing now that Ohtani money will not affect future payroll much after this coming season and more so after the 2026 season. 

If they did sign Ohtani I can see them going after Glasnow. He pitches next year at $25m but comes off the books the next year. Ohtani can take his spot in the rotation. They can sign someone like Hoskins too, next year. He falls off in 25 as well. They have a lot of options. Even signing or trading for guys who don’t come off next year, they still have Hendricks, Mancini, Gomes, Barhardt and Smyly all coming off in 25, and really the only one they would have to replace is Hendricks. If Amaya can prove to be a decent catcher they can sign a back up cheap. Lots of money coming off that can be replaced cheaply. Horton can take Hendricks spot. 

[thawv]

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'm not saying they shouldn't go after a top guy,  just saying they're not ready for a 30 YO 500 million 10 plus year contract top guy, because they're not close with this current roster to competing for a WS championship with just Ohtani added to it.

Like I said, if their intentions are to spend more and add additional upgrades to the roster this offseason and next to put themselves in position to compete for a WS championship over the next 5-6 seasons, then yes go get Ohtani.

If not, then adding Ohtani money is useless if that all your doing spending wise cause it capping you out payroll wise with not wanting to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons. 

 

 

4 hours ago, chibears55 said:

I'm not saying they shouldn't go after a top guy,  just saying they're not ready for a 30 YO 500 million 10 plus year contract top guy, because they're not close with this current roster to competing for a WS championship with just Ohtani added to it.

Like I said, if their intentions are to spend more and add additional upgrades to the roster this offseason and next to put themselves in position to compete for a WS championship over the next 5-6 seasons, then yes go get Ohtani.

If not, then adding Ohtani money is useless if that all your doing spending wise cause it capping you out payroll wise with not wanting to be over the Threshold for multiple seasons. 

 

I could not disagree more with this line of thinking.  This is the exact time to go after Ohtani.  From a baseball standpoint, and a business standpoint.  They are favorites at this very moment win the central. 

The CBT means nothing this year.  You can count on getting close to 277 if they sign Ohtani.  It doesn't matter if you sign FA's first and then call up prospects or trade for major league players, or call them up and then sign FA's.  You can take it to the bank that they will be well over the threshold this year.  And pushing the 3rd level if they sign O.  They are dropping 75 million next season.  They will go over this year.  And by a lot. 

Signing Ohtani is not going to limit anything in the future.  He will more than pay for his contact. 

 

 

[thawv]

3 hours ago, chibears55 said:

So you're ok for them to commit 500 mil to one guy if they're not going to add anymore upgrades/payroll to the roster because they don't wanna go pass the Threshold for multiple seasons ?

Rangers added more then just 1 guy, they added over 800 mil in payroll on multiple players to improve themselves.

Harper was 26 when he signed his deal with the Phillies 

You have to understand that money is not an issue this season.  According to Jed, they've been "rolling over" unspent money.  And you can guarantee it's for this year.  Now is the time to unload the pocket book, and go back under next year.  Ohtani will just be one of many moves this off season.  It's not Ohtani and nothing else.  That's not happening. 

[JD94]

Tigers signed Kenta Maeda to a 2 year deal. I’m just glad to see that at least one GM has woke up from his Thanksgiving food coma. I was starting to get worried 

[Bertz]

Maeda is super underrated, but if that's what guys of his ilk are getting then scenarios where Jed trades a bunch of young pitching away and needs to backfill the #5 starter spot with a vet get that much less attractive.