Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Rcal10]

5 minutes ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

This is a horsefeathers god awful trade

But it works in the trade simulator🤮

[Cuzi]

The Cubs have closed the book on Morel at 3B. Therefor, I will close the book on Morel at 3B. You dont have a clear opening at 3B and choose to put a player there that is the least likely player to profile for the position, if Morel was an option. You dont ask a winter league to play him at 1B, if 3B is an option. They have done everything in their power to avoid playing him at 3B in MLB. The only thing they could do now would be to literally say that Morel is never going to play 3B on the Cubs, and destroy a good chunk of their leverage in trade negotiations in the process.

[thawv]

2 hours ago, Rcal10 said:

I don’t understand your desire to get rid of a solid starting pitcher under control and create another hole on the team in the rotation. Sure, next year Glasnow fills it. But for $25M. Who fills it after that? This off season most have talked about the Cubs adding a young controlled starting pitcher and you keep trying to get rid of one. Exactly what has Steele done the last 2 years to suggest that “at best” he is a 3? Sure, he might have some regression, but he is still a very solid starter. Why move him and why are you so down on him? 
 

I would like Glasnow for 23’. But not to take Steele’s place. 

We know that Glasnow is gone.  Diaz is exactly what we need.  In order to get Diaz, and we had to take on Glasnow's 25 million, it would cost a Steele, or a PCA + to get it done.  I'd rather it be Steele in order to get Diaz.

My assumption is that they are going to add an ace pitcher regardless if they add Glasnow or not.  Horton will take Glasnow's spot.  The ace pitcher will still be there after next season.  Any back of the rotation guy can fill Kyle's spot, if they had a very good 1-2 punch. 

I honestly don't have the faith in a two pitch pitcher to have continued success.   I really do see him having a ceiling of a #3

The big move here is to get Diaz.  

[KCCub]

8 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But they have closed the book on 3rd base for him. And that is what I disagree with. 

I think everyone here would love to have Morel as the cornerstone 3b. The reason most are doubtful is that the Cubs are reluctant to commit to him there. There is a reason for that. In a season where 3b was wide open, they played a career 2b with no arm at 3b over him. Just think how easy it would be for the Cubs to come out and say “Morel is our guy at 3b moving forwards”. They haven’t and there’s continued talk of them trying to find him a position, with no mention of that being 3b. The writing is on the wall for me anyways.

[Cuzi]

The kind of thinking to suggest Morel is still an option at 3B is the same kind of thinking that leads people to believe that all top prospects are the future of the team and should never be traded, when they are wrong in that assumption 80% of the time.

[JD94]

35 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

But why does it have to be DH. Why can’t he coexist with Soto or Ohtani and play 3rd. I think those who suggest he is being undervalued really are suggesting him at 3rd shouldn’t be closed. Not suggesting they aren’t getting enough in a trade for him. As I have said often, I am fine with them dealing him. They just need fair value. I haven’t seen anyone suggest he should be traded for a below average player. I don’t think anyone who wants to traded him has suggested he is not valuable. But they have closed the book on 3rd base for him. And that is what I disagree with. 

If they thought he could play 3rd, then that’s where he would have played. He didn’t even play there in AAA hardly (9 games) before he got called up this season. It’s obvious they don’t think he can play the position. If he’s awful defensively there, then the bat isn’t good enough to provide much value at all. He’s better served to DH. They are trying to tell us without actually telling us that he can’t play there. Obviously I’m not in the room, I’m just going by the facts we currently have. They very well might have a plan to play him there next season. But until they actually do it, I’m going to assume that just isn’t in the plans for Morel. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

13 hours ago, Tryptamine said:

I'm bored, and I think people are already aware of this, but this is why the baseball trade values site is almost entirely worthless.

 

 

I think this type of criticism misunderstands what BBTV is actually useful for.  Yes, you can get it to say any number of unrealistic trades are 'fair', and if you look at the user generated proposals it's clear people use the calculator to try to make various 4 for 1 'my trash for your star trades' that would never happen.  The utility of that site is that it's an objective *starting point* that isn't so far off how players actually get evaluated, so in thinking about a possibility it can be a very useful tool.  That doesn't mean its valuations are gospel, they acknowledge that up front and present them as a min/max/median, and even then there are places across thousands of players where it's not gonna be quite right(Trout being an extreme example).  But if you approach it with the thought of 'could a deal work to trade X to Team A or X for player Y, it's a perfectly good foundation where you also need to take into account the other team's needs and motivations.  Most people just skip over the second part and then other people get mistakenly irritated at BBTV for that.

[JD94]

24 minutes ago, thawv said:

. 

I honestly don't have the faith in a two pitch pitcher to have continued success.   I really do see him having a ceiling of a #3.  

Spencer Strider is a fastball / slider guy 91% of the time. 

[ToolDRT]

Who we thinking? Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Rangers, Red Sox? Maybe the Mets?

 

 

[Rcal10]

32 minutes ago, KCCub said:

I think everyone here would love to have Morel as the cornerstone 3b. The reason most are doubtful is that the Cubs are reluctant to commit to him there. There is a reason for that. In a season where 3b was wide open, they played a career 2b with no arm at 3b over him. Just think how easy it would be for the Cubs to come out and say “Morel is our guy at 3b moving forwards”. They haven’t and there’s continued talk of them trying to find him a position, with no mention of that being 3b. The writing is on the wall for me anyways.

Again, people pick what they want to make their case. Jed actually said he thought it was a good idea for him to get work at first because they already know he can play 2nd and 3rd. So that was a mention of him at 3rd. 
I admit, I am picking what I want to make my case. The difference is I am  not saying he will play 3rd. I am just saying I do not agree the book is closed. 

[Rcal10]

45 minutes ago, thawv said:

We know that Glasnow is gone.  Diaz is exactly what we need.  In order to get Diaz, and we had to take on Glasnow's 25 million, it would cost a Steele, or a PCA + to get it done.  I'd rather it be Steele in order to get Diaz.

My assumption is that they are going to add an ace pitcher regardless if they add Glasnow or not.  Horton will take Glasnow's spot.  The ace pitcher will still be there after next season.  Any back of the rotation guy can fill Kyle's spot, if they had a very good 1-2 punch. 

I honestly don't have the faith in a two pitch pitcher to have continued success.   I really do see him having a ceiling of a #3

The big move here is to get Diaz.  

How can his ceiling be a #3 when he pitcher like a #1 for 1 1/2 years now?

[Rcal10]

25 minutes ago, JD94 said:

If they thought he could play 3rd, then that’s where he would have played. He didn’t even play there in AAA hardly (9 games) before he got called up this season. It’s obvious they don’t think he can play the position. If he’s awful defensively there, then the bat isn’t good enough to provide much value at all. He’s better served to DH. They are trying to tell us without actually telling us that he can’t play there. Obviously I’m not in the room, I’m just going by the facts we currently have. They very well might have a plan to play him there next season. But until they actually do it, I’m going to assume that just isn’t in the plans for Morel. 

And I am choosing not to make assumptions. 

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

Again, people pick what they want to make their case. Jed actually said he thought it was a good idea for him to get work at first because they already know he can play 2nd and 3rd. So that was a mention of him at 3rd. 
I admit, I am picking what I want to make my case. The difference is I am  not saying he will play 3rd. I am just saying I do not agree the book is closed. 

Words are just words though. Until they actually show they will play him at 3rd, then they are just… words. Jed isn’t going to publicly say “Morel just isn’t good enough to play 3rd.” There is no literal upside to saying that. He had a golden opportunity to play him there this year and he chose to play a career 2b with a weak arm there instead. 

[PeanutPunch33]

I’m not sure if this has been discussed but a hitter/closer combo would be interesting for Ohtani if they want to mitigate a bit of risk and pressure on him after 2 elbow surgeries 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

Words are just words though. Until they actually show they will play him at 3rd, then they are just… words. Jed isn’t going to publicly say “Morel just isn’t good enough to play 3rd.” There is no literal upside to saying that. He had a golden opportunity to play him there this year and he chose to play a career 2b with a weak arm there instead. 

But you can explain that too, if you need to. They put Madrigal there because they were trying to build his trade value. Then when Morel came up, the Cubs got surprisingly solid defense at 3rd from Madrigal and they needed a bat. So they let Morel DH. He did well there so they left him there. Maybe all other 3rd baseman on the 23’ roster were better defensively then him. Maybe they didn’t want to mess with him during the year. So they played the others at third and left him as DH. I am not arguing he will be the 3rd baseman next year. I am disagreeing on the narrative that the Cubs have closed the books on him there. 

[JD94]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

But you can explain that too, if you need to. They put Madrigal there because they were trying to build his trade value. Then when Morel came up, the Cubs got surprisingly solid defense at 3rd from Madrigal and they needed a bat. So they let Morel DH. He did well there so they left him there. Maybe all other 3rd baseman on the 23’ roster were better defensively then him. Maybe they didn’t want to mess with him during the year. So they played the others at third and left him as DH. I am not arguing he will be the 3rd baseman next year. I am disagreeing on the narrative that the Cubs have closed the books on him there. 

I don’t know man… I just think you’re reaching a little bit here. A lot of “ifs” and “maybes.” The fact is, Morel will never get better at 3rd if he doesn’t play there. He barely has played it in the minors and they didn’t play him there in the majors. I think it’s as simple as if they thought he could play it, then he would have by now. He hasn’t. That tells me what I need to know about how they view Morel at 3rd. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, JD94 said:

I don’t know man… I just think you’re reaching a little bit here. A lot of “ifs” and “maybes.” The fact is, Morel will never get better at 3rd if he doesn’t play there. He barely has played it in the minors and they didn’t play him there in the majors. I think it’s as simple as if they thought he could play it, then he would have by now. He hasn’t. That tells me what I need to know about how they view Morel at 3rd. 

I underwent your POV. I also respect it and respect the discussion. And you may very well be right. I just choose to see what happens this off season. If the Cubs coaches can make a noodle arm 2nd baseman into a solid 3rd baseman, I just can’t close the book on then making Morel serviceable. But if they can’t they do need to trade him.

[thawv]

47 minutes ago, JD94 said:

Spencer Strider is a fastball / slider guy 91% of the time. 

Not to split hairs, but Strider throws 97, and Steele throws 92.  Steele throws 2 pitches essentially 100% of the time.  Strider at least mixes in another pitch 10% of the time.  But I do get your point. 

[thawv]

30 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

How can his ceiling be a #3 when he pitcher like a #1 for 1 1/2 years now?

He's been in the system since 2014.  He's shown nothing until they called him up in 2021 and join the pen with 9 starts.  He throws 2 pitches 100% of the time.  He's not over powering either.   He just pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his life in 2022.  Last year he hit a wall his last several starts.  To me, he just doesn't have TOTR stuff.  I still think his ceiling is a #3

[Rcal10]

2 minutes ago, thawv said:

He's been in the system since 2014.  He's shown nothing until they called him up in 2021 and join the pen with 9 starts.  He throws 2 pitches 100% of the time.  He's not over powering either.   He just pitched over 100 innings for the first time in his life in 2022.  Last year he hit a wall his last several starts.  To me, he just doesn't have TOTR stuff.  I still think his ceiling is a #3

So results don’t matter to you? The second half of 22 and all of 23 he pitched as good an anyone in baseball. His results were that of a TOR starter. Again, he has already pitched higher than the ceiling you have for him. 

[Tryptamine]

I don't think you understand what ceiling means

[thawv]

21 minutes ago, Rcal10 said:

So results don’t matter to you? The second half of 22 and all of 23 he pitched as good an anyone in baseball. His results were that of a TOR starter. Again, he has already pitched higher than the ceiling you have for him. 

I just don't see him as "that guy" moving forward without having better stuff, and more stuff then what he has.  

[KCCub]

Steele is not being moved. It’s a waste of time discussing it. Even in the scenario he regresses to a #3, he’s controlled for 4 more years through his prime. The Cubs need to add another SP to the top of the rotation, not trade away one that they have control of for 4 years. There’s other ways to get bats that don’t include trading away your most valuable asset. 

[Rcal10]

1 minute ago, KCCub said:

Steele is not being moved. It’s a waste of time discussing it. Even in the scenario he regresses to a #3, he’s controlled for 4 more years through his prime. The Cubs need to add another SP to the top of the rotation, not trade away one that they have control of for 4 years. There’s other ways to get bats that don’t include trading away your most valuable asset. 

I wouldn’t trade him either. But if he does regress to a 3, now would be the time to get the most value from him. I don’t agree he will regress and his ceiling is a 3, however. If I thought of him as thawv does then I would agree he should be moved now. 

[Tryptamine]

Just now, KCCub said:

Steele is not being moved. It’s a waste of time discussing it. Even in the scenario he regresses to a #3, he’s controlled for 4 more years through his prime. The Cubs need to add another SP to the top of the rotation, not trade away one that they have control of for 4 years. There’s other ways to get bats that don’t include trading away your most valuable asset. 

Barring some unprecedented overpay like the Orioles coming in and saying we want Steele, we'll give you Jackson Holliday, Grayson Rodriguez and Coby Mayo. I highly doubt he's going anywhere in at least the next 2 years.