Cubs offseason chit chat...

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, WhyCantWeWin said:

Yeah they are going to need to have the largest offer, don't think hoyer has it in him to offer a contract over 200 mil

I think he would for the right player.  Swanson got 177m and he was going to be 29 y/o.  If a good player is 25 years old signing them to a 8-10 year deal isn't super risky, not like the Turner/Judge etc contracts last year.  The fact that Yamamoto hasn't played in the MLB and is a pitcher is the risky part.  But Ohtani was a risk too.

[Y2J]

Congratulations to Dusty Baker on an incredible baseball career. He was the first Cubs manager that gave me hope. I will always appreciate what he did for the organization, particularly in 2003, and the many great moments he had with us, like yelling at LaRussa from across the diamond. I was happy for him when he finally won his World Series ring. 

[muntjack]

You have a much healthier attitude than I do. 

[Tryptamine]

I remember him destroying some of the best arms the Cubs have ever seen, but to each their own I guess. 

[Y2J]

3 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I remember him destroying some of the best arms the Cubs have ever seen, but to each their own I guess. 

Winning in 2016 makes 2003 sting a whole lot less. Still, we got to experience that awesome high at the time. Whether or not Dusty ruined arms is another discussion, but I recall it being said that Wood was over-pitched since high school and Prior may or may never have avoided the injuries with another manager. Zambrano had success post-Dusty.

[Y2J]

10 minutes ago, muntjack said:

You have a much healthier attitude than I do. 

Honestly, I try. We could win 103 games and the World Series and people will still find reasons to complain. And they did. But, that doesn't mean we can't appreciate what those guys did for us. Dusty, Joe, Lou. They all gave us hope and some exciting baseball on the field. I'll take that.

[We Got The Whole 9]

19 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

I remember him destroying some of the best arms the Cubs have ever seen, but to each their own I guess. 

You really think that 03 team goes anywhere without riding those horses the same way most Managers did back then? The pen was laughable.

 

 

[Y2J]

I would imagine the D-backs usage of Schilling and Johnson two years prior had a lot to do with that also. 

[Stratos]

Dusty is a good guy, a stubborn ill-informed fool at times who destroyed our young arms, but a good man, I wish him the best.

[Stratos]

2 hours ago, Y2J said:

I would imagine the D-backs usage of Schilling and Johnson two years prior had a lot to do with that also. 

Maybe.  They were also like 10-15 years older with a lot of strength build up over many years.

I saw similarities with Dusty Baker's usage and how the Cubs used Steele and Alzolay etc this season.  When you're in the hunt to make the playoffs it's hard to let the foot off the gas when you're thirsty for wins and guys are pitching great with no great alertantives.  I hope the Cubs don't pay for it next year.

[We Got The Whole 9]

59 minutes ago, Stratos said:

Maybe.  They were also like 10-15 years older with a lot of strength build up over many years.

I saw similarities with Dusty Baker's usage and how the Cubs used Steele and Alzolay etc this season.  When you're in the hunt to make the playoffs it's hard to let the foot off the gas when you're thirsty for wins and guys are pitching great with no great alertantives.  I hope the Cubs don't pay for it next year.

Really this is a bunch of balderdash. Maybe the mechanics of Wood should come more into question. Prior's collision with Giles could very well have caused the subluxation of his shoulder that ended his effectiveness. Zambrano was pushed hard that year and was a horse for like 8 years after.

 

19 year old Dwight Gooden threw 215 MLB innings going full-bore every outing.

 

19 year old Felix Hernandez threw 90 MLB innings and DOUBLED that amount the next year and went on to throw 200 innings for like a decade straight. 

 

19 year old Kershaw went from 120 to 170 and then 200 for a decade.

 

I believe some pitchers are simply cut out for it and some are not. The horsefeathers about Steele and Alzolay is a bunch of crap. 

[JHBulls]

6 hours ago, Y2J said:

 

5 hours ago, Y2J said:

Honestly, I try. We could win 103 games and the World Series and people will still find reasons to complain. And they did. But, that doesn't mean we can't appreciate what those guys did for us. Dusty, Joe, Lou. They all gave us hope and some exciting baseball on the field. I'll take that.

Yeah, that is wild lol. I still remember online posts from Cubs fans irritated at Joe Maddon the day after winning the World Series and it’s continued on for years. Just enjoy the trophy. 

I can fully understand the frustration at Dusty Baker, though. The World Series is the ultimate goal, the team didn’t achieve that and a lot of people place blame on the manager as the decision maker. Not that it should take away from an incredible 50+ years in Baseball. It’s a well-earned retirement. 

Edited October 27, 2023 by JHBulls

[Irrelevant Dude]

3 hours ago, Stratos said:

Dusty is a good guy, a stubborn ill-informed fool at times who destroyed our young arms, but a good man, I wish him the best.

Yeah, I have softened my stance on him since he left.  I still think he is overrated as a manager, and his moves with the Cubs were often infuriating, but it is hard to argue with his cumulative results. He had a long, successful career and is a no doubt Hall of Famer.  He also seems like a guy who would be really interesting to sit and have a baseball conversation with, and that's something I wouldn't have said 15 years ago.

[Stratos]

4 hours ago, We Got The Whole 9 said:

Really this is a bunch of balderdash. Maybe the mechanics of Wood should come more into question. Prior's collision with Giles could very well have caused the subluxation of his shoulder that ended his effectiveness. Zambrano was pushed hard that year and was a horse for like 8 years after.

 

19 year old Dwight Gooden threw 215 MLB innings going full-bore every outing.

 

19 year old Felix Hernandez threw 90 MLB innings and DOUBLED that amount the next year and went on to throw 200 innings for like a decade straight. 

 

19 year old Kershaw went from 120 to 170 and then 200 for a decade.

 

I believe some pitchers are simply cut out for it and some are not. The horsefeathers about Steele and Alzolay is a bunch of crap. 

Well every MLB organization disagrees with you.  You can name all of the exceptions you want, that doesn't make it a trend.  I can name a whole bunch of people who smoked liked a chimney their whole life and never got cancer, it doesn't mean smoking doesn't cause cancer.

Zambrano peaked at age 23 in 2004 and got progressively worse year after year after that, and was toast by age 30.

Some guys have arms that can put up with punishment, a lot of guys don't, and you'll never who which is which.

[Jason Ross]

Levine, as well as Cerami, claims Cubs will be seriously involved in the Juan Soto sweeps this offseason.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

There is a path, however narrow it might be, of having an offseason like this and being in the range of 20 million above the LT(which IMO is probably the upper bound for the offseason):

• Sign Yamamoto
• Bring back Hendricks
• Trade Stroman for a secondary bat if he opts in(Santander, Polanco, etc), acquire the secondary bat if he opts out(the aforementioned names, Candelario, JDM, Garver)
• Trade for Soto
• Add a reliever or two (I'm currently favoring a trade of e.g. Mervis for Hunter Harvey)

 

Which leaves you with something like:

• Hoerner, Happ, Soto, Suzuki, Swanson, Santander, Morel, Gomes, CF(Tauchman/PCA)
• Steele, Yamamoto, Taillon, Hendricks, Wicks(or Assad/Wesneski/Brown/Horton)
• Alzolay, Harvey, Merryweather, Smyly, Assad,  & your favorite 3 others to round out the pen(Leiter, Palencia, Hughes, Little, Keegan, etc)

 

The things I like about this are:

• It doesn't rely on winning multiple bidding wars and assuming you can sign multiple Top 5 FA when everyone wants to sign them
• The big additions are very young and in Jed's wheelhouse where he's more likely to be aggressive to get the deal over the line
• It doesn't necessarily commit all of the money that might be available for the next 3 years.  Obviously you want to extend Soto, but even if he's not interested until next offseason it's still worthwhile and the other non-Yamamoto additions are sufficiently short term

But it also goes without saying that the 2 mid-20's stars are going to be in high demand, and it's possible that the totality of this plan pushes you beyond where you're able to go payroll wise.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

@Transmogrified TigerI ❤️ you but explain how an offseason in which they land both Yamamoto and Soto is avoiding bidding wars? No one else is going to be in on 25 YO superstars apparently available for next to nothing? 

I said this was a path "however narrow it may be", and closed by saying "it also goes without saying that the 2 mid-20's stars are going to be in high demand", obviously there will be no shortage of suitors for either.  The (small) point I was making is that signing for one star and trading for another is likely to be easier than assuming you can sign two, when the suitors may not be similar for a trade v. FA, and signing one player increases the urgency for everyone else to bump up contract prices higher with stars that remain.

[Y2J]

17 hours ago, JHBulls said:

 

Yeah, that is wild lol. I still remember online posts from Cubs fans irritated at Joe Maddon the day after winning the World Series and it’s continued on for years. Just enjoy the trophy. 

I can fully understand the frustration at Dusty Baker, though. The World Series is the ultimate goal, the team didn’t achieve that and a lot of people place blame on the manager as the decision maker. Not that it should take away from an incredible 50+ years in Baseball. It’s a well-earned retirement. 

One thing Joe did that I think gets overlooked is shortening up the pen during the WS. He was pretty much down to Chapman, Montgomery, and Edwards for the final three games of the series. 

I'm very much in the "enjoy the trophy" camp. I don't care how we do, so long as we do it. Sometimes people just get lost in all of the nuances of the game and forget to just enjoy the game itself.

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, Y2J said:

One thing Joe did that I think gets overlooked is shortening up the pen during the WS. He was pretty much down to Chapman, Montgomery, and Edwards for the final three games of the series. 

I'm very much in the "enjoy the trophy" camp. I don't care how we do, so long as we do it. Sometimes people just get lost in all of the nuances of the game and forget to just enjoy the game itself.

lol, he very nearly blew the WS with his pen usage. If the Cubs had lost that WS he would have been reviled. He choked his way to a championship. Thank goodness for the rain delay. Then the Universe broke, so...

[Y2J]

1 minute ago, CubinNY said:

lol, he very nearly blew the WS with his pen usage. If the Cubs had lost that WS he would have been reviled. He choked his way to a championship. Thank goodness for the rain delay. Then the Universe broke, so...

Only legitimate complaint was the overuse of Chapman, who was gassed by G7, but he was a horse and was used like it. The rest of the pen was... unsteady and unreliable... to say the least. Did you really want to see Grimm or Rondon take the ball in G7? I'll go as far as to say that if Joe doesn't use his pen the way he did in Games 5 and 7, we lose. 

[Bertz]

22 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

There is a path, however narrow it might be, of having an offseason like this and being in the range of 20 million above the LT(which IMO is probably the upper bound for the offseason):

• Sign Yamamoto
• Bring back Hendricks
• Trade Stroman for a secondary bat if he opts in(Santander, Polanco, etc), acquire the secondary bat if he opts out(the aforementioned names, Candelario, JDM, Garver)
• Trade for Soto
• Add a reliever or two (I'm currently favoring a trade of e.g. Mervis for Hunter Harvey)

 

Which leaves you with something like:

• Hoerner, Happ, Soto, Suzuki, Swanson, Santander, Morel, Gomes, CF(Tauchman/PCA)
• Steele, Yamamoto, Taillon, Hendricks, Wicks(or Assad/Wesneski/Brown/Horton)
• Alzolay, Harvey, Merryweather, Smyly, Assad,  & your favorite 3 others to round out the pen(Leiter, Palencia, Hughes, Little, Keegan, etc)

 

The things I like about this are:

• It doesn't rely on winning multiple bidding wars and assuming you can sign multiple Top 5 FA when everyone wants to sign them
• The big additions are very young and in Jed's wheelhouse where he's more likely to be aggressive to get the deal over the line
• It doesn't necessarily commit all of the money that might be available for the next 3 years.  Obviously you want to extend Soto, but even if he's not interested until next offseason it's still worthwhile and the other non-Yamamoto additions are sufficiently short term

But it also goes without saying that the 2 mid-20's stars are going to be in high demand, and it's possible that the totality of this plan pushes you beyond where you're able to go payroll wise.

This is more or less my perfect world offseason.  One of the things that's tough this winter is that if you look at Jed's resources, the play is probably one major trade and one major signing.  But if you look at the top of the FA market the fits for this roster are Ohtani (who will cost as much as two big FAs), Yamamoto (as an import geography might be a problem), and Bellinger (comes with major statistical red flags).  The trade market on the other hand is teaming with fits for this roster.  But I just don't see Jed having the appetite to do two major trades, e.g. Alonso+Glasnow.

I do think the age on Yamamoto and Soto is a differentiator like you say and would allow Jed to go out of his comfort zone.  Otherwise, and there's some vibes from a recent Athletic article to back this up, I'm wondering if Jed's realistic plan is to build a monster offense and more or less let it ride with the internal pitching.  Something like this:

- Hold onto Stro

- Trade for and hopefully extend Soto.  Package includes Morel

- Acquire two of those secondary bats (I like Garver and Polanco)

- Sign David Robertson.  It sounds like the reliever they want as much for veteran leadership as it is for the guy's production, so depending on payroll maybe Jed aims lower here to our chagrin 

You'd have a damn near Braves caliber position player group, more or less last year's pitching staff, and the team keeps the bulk of its powder dry.  Feels very Jed.

[CubinNY]

14 minutes ago, Bertz said:

This is more or less my perfect world offseason.  One of the things that's tough this winter is that if you look at Jed's resources, the play is probably one major trade and one major signing.  But if you look at the top of the FA market the fits for this roster are Ohtani (who will cost as much as two big FAs), Yamamoto (as an import geography might be a problem), and Bellinger (comes with major statistical red flags).  The trade market on the other hand is teaming with fits for this roster.  But I just don't see Jed having the appetite to do two major trades, e.g. Alonso+Glasnow.

I do think the age on Yamamoto and Soto is a differentiator like you say and would allow Jed to go out of his comfort zone.  Otherwise, and there's some vibes from a recent Athletic article to back this up, I'm wondering if Jed's realistic plan is to build a monster offense and more or less let it ride with the internal pitching.  Something like this:

- Hold onto Stro

- Trade for and hopefully extend Soto.  Package includes Morel

- Acquire two of those secondary bats (I like Garver and Polanco)

- Sign David Robertson.  It sounds like the reliever they want as much for veteran leadership as it is for the guy's production, so depending on payroll maybe Jed aims lower here to our chagrin 

You'd have a damn near Braves caliber position player group, more or less last year's pitching staff, and the team keeps the bulk of its powder dry.  Feels very Jed.

The Stroman opt-out is a key piece here. I think they are planning on either side of that eventuality. I don't think there is a path to trade Stro should he opt-in unless they are paying the bulk of his salary, so what's the point?

Without Stro - I think they need at least one top-of-the-rotation pitcher and I'm hoping it's Yamomoto. Then they can go after Soto with Morel ++. I would not target Soto if I were the Cubs, but that's me.

With Stro- things are a little tougher at least for this year. I have no idea how they will approach the offseason, but they still have the same needs. 

[JHBulls]

2 hours ago, CubinNY said:

lol, he very nearly blew the WS with his pen usage. If the Cubs had lost that WS he would have been reviled. He choked his way to a championship. Thank goodness for the rain delay. Then the Universe broke, so...

Cleveland fans don’t revile Terry Francona after blowing a 3-1 series lead. Cubs fans will be just fine. 

[CubinNY]

4 minutes ago, JHBulls said:

Cleveland fans don’t revile Terry Francona after blowing a 3-1 series lead. Cubs fans will be just fine. 

lol. 

[Stratos]

The key with Soto for me is that I just don't believe he will ever sign an extension.  He seems 100% intent on testing free agency.  If we were all him, just 1 year out from FA, i think we'd all do the same as well.  It's the best business decision.

If the Cubs still want to give up good prospects for only 1 year of Soto then they have to go out and spend to add more talent to make it worth it.  It just doesn't seem like a Cubs kind of play.  They didn't even jump on Sean Murphy last year, who was a great fit.

I think Yamamoto is the most likely for us between Soto, Ohanti, and him.