9/14 Cubs Off Day Chatter

[UMFan83]

Just looking at the schedule, if the Cubs don't skip anyone we're looking at these starters the rest of the year:

ARI - Steele, Hendricks, Wicks

PIT - Assad, Taillon, Steele

COL - Hendricks, Wicks, Assad

ATL - Taillon, Steele, Hendricks

MIL - Wicks, Assad, Taillon

 

But with 3 off days coming up they have a chance skip 1-2 starts to optimize their pitching matchups.  Maybe something like (number of days of rest in parenthesis) 

 

ARI - Steele (5), Hendricks (5), Wicks (5)

PIT - Taillon (5), Steele (4), Hendricks (4)

COL - Wicks (4), Taillon (4), Stroman/Assad/BP

ATL - Steele (5), Hendricks (5), Wicks (5)

MIL - Taillon (5), Stroman/Assad/BP (5), Steele (5)

If the Cubs have clinched a playoff spot they can rest Steele on the last game of the season and Hendricks and Wicks well rested for Games 2 and 3.  Maybe Stroman back by next Sunday is too soon, not sure but consider that a 5th starter spot for whoever takes it.  Obviously if its Taillon you want to pull from the rotation instead of Assad, then that would switch around a bit but same principle.  You can basically skip 2 starts from your worst starter down the stretch and still give all of your starters an extra day of rest before all of their final starts except one.

Edited September 14, 2023 by UMFan83

[SOFNR]

4 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Just looking at the schedule, if the Cubs don't skip anyone we're looking at these starters the rest of the year:

ARI - Steele, Hendricks, Wicks

PIT - Assad, Taillon, Steele

COL - Hendricks, Wicks, Assad

ATL - Taillon, Steele, Hendricks

MIL - Wicks, Assad, Taillon

 

But with 3 off days coming up they have a chance skip 1-2 starts to optimize their pitching matchups.  Maybe something like (number of days of rest in parenthesis) 

 

ARI - Steele (5), Hendricks (5), Wicks (5)

PIT - Taillon (5), Steele (4), Hendricks (4)

COL - Wicks (4), Taillon (4), Stroman/Assad/BP

ATL - Steele (5), Hendricks (5), Wicks (5)

MIL - Taillon (5), Stroman/Assad/BP (5), Steele (5)

If the Cubs have clinched a playoff spot they can rest Steele on the last game of the season and Hendricks and Wicks well rested for Games 2 and 3.  Maybe Stroman back by next Sunday is too soon, not sure but consider that a 5th starter spot for whoever takes it.  Obviously if its Taillon you want to pull from the rotation instead of Assad, then that would switch around a bit but same principle.  You can basically skip 2 starts from your worst starter down the stretch and still give all of your starters an extra day of rest before all of their final starts except one.

This would be ideal. I wouldn't pencil in Wicks as the better option over Assad yet though. Let's see how he does as teams continue to see more of him. But i've definitely seen enough from Taillon to not want him anywhere near a playoff start.

[UMFan83]

Reds lose to the Tigers today, falling 2.5 behind the Cubs, which means the Cubs will at least have at least a 2 game lead when they step on the field tomorrow.  Marlins currently down 3-2 in the 5th to the Brewers.  If the Marlins lose, they will be 3 back.

For the Cubs to be at least 2.5 games above the cutline at the end of the night they need the Marlins to lose to the Brewers and the Giants to lose at the juggernaut Rockies.  Any other result and the Cubs will be 2 games up.

[Andy]

46 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

He has a .493 OPS since August 12th (28 games) .167/.301/.192 slash line.  Maybe PCA is also a bad hitter right now, but if he's putting up a .493 OPS he's still offering elite defense and (we havent seen it yet but) baserunning.   That said Tauchman might not be what he was earlier in the summer, he's not a .493 OPS player and still takes great ABs and gets on base at a decent clip relative to his BA.

Without looking it up I believe Tauchman has done well in pinch-hit spots, which could be a factor as well. PCA off the bench seems like a less positive proposition.

[CubinNY]

Bellinger is 28 and some team is going to offer him a 5-year deal. It's likely the team will be upside down by the end of it, but that is the nature of FA. I have no idea what to think about the Japanese pitcher. However, I'd be leary of any long term deal just from the pitchers tend to break perspective. I trust Jed and his team to evaluate and get who they target. They most often do. I tend to think that a lot of the Cubs' plans hinge on what Stroman intends to do.

[UMFan83]

27 minutes ago, CubinNY said:

Bellinger is 28 and some team is going to offer him a 5-year deal. It's likely the team will be upside down by the end of it, but that is the nature of FA. I have no idea what to think about the Japanese pitcher. However, I'd be leary of any long term deal just from the pitchers tend to break perspective. I trust Jed and his team to evaluate and get who they target. They most often do. I tend to think that a lot of the Cubs' plans hinge on what Stroman intends to do.

Something I was thinking about with regards to Bellinger.  The Cubs are giving PCA a shot now because they believe he's an MLB player now.  They have Happ entrenched in LF and Seiya in RF.  Bellinger has been great about playing 1B this year because the Cubs have needed a 1B, but I wonder how he actually feels about playing 1B long-term?  Obviously, as he ages the chances of him staying at CF decrease but I'd imagine he'd be more comfortable in an OF position long-term.  Or maybe he's completely fine playing 1B the rest of his career, not sure.

[UMFan83]

Marlins lose to the Brewers 4-2.  Marlins drop to 3 GB the Cubs, Brewers are now 4.5 games ahead in the Central.

DBacks and Mets are scoreless in the 4th inning.  A DBacks win would put them 1.5 games behind the Cubs heading into our series, 2.5 with a loss.

So out of the 4 games that matter today, the first 2 have gone our way (sort of with MIL/MIA).  Unfortunately the last game we care about today is Logan Webb against Chase Anderson (6.30 ERA) and the Rockies.  Giants win will put them 2 GB the Cubs, but really 3 GB since we own the tiebreaker.  If they are the team that's closest to the playoff cutline, I am fine with that for now.  They still have 7 games against the Dodgers and a couple against Arizona so not an easy road.

[Andy]

14 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Something I was thinking about with regards to Bellinger.  The Cubs are giving PCA a shot now because they believe he's an MLB player now.  They have Happ entrenched in LF and Seiya in RF.  Bellinger has been great about playing 1B this year because the Cubs have needed a 1B, but I wonder how he actually feels about playing 1B long-term?  Obviously, as he ages the chances of him staying at CF decrease but I'd imagine he'd be more comfortable in an OF position long-term.  Or maybe he's completely fine playing 1B the rest of his career, not sure.

Long term I don't know, but I'm almost certain Taylor McGregor said on a recent Cubs game that he does feel more comfortable in center field.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

https://x.com/JesseRogersESPN/status/1702394632292749801?s=20

 

 

 

Not the end of the world but I’m not a fan of losing a 95 lefty with some interesting da numbers to Stearns already

 

I'm a fan of anything that gets Anthony Kay off this roster.

[Irrelevant Dude]

17 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Something I was thinking about with regards to Bellinger.  The Cubs are giving PCA a shot now because they believe he's an MLB player now.  They have Happ entrenched in LF and Seiya in RF.

I still feel like the best play would be to trade Happ in the offseason and re-sign Bellinger.  Happ's contract is tradeable, but probably won't bring a ton back in return.  But if getting him off the payroll helps to open an outfield spot and bring Bellinger back (assuming he would be ok with playing a lot of LF), that's one way to create a spot.

[soccer10k]

5 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

The Brewers might be different.  I'm assuming they'd want Burnes, Woodruff, Peralta to start in the WC round that is 10/3-10/5.  If Counsell has the opportunity to set his rotation for that round and ideally give his guys a 5th day of rest before the playoffs, he'd ideally have them going the 27th, 28th, and 29th, meaning only 1 of them (probably Peralta) would go against the Cubs.  But that's only if they've clinched the division in time to set that up.

Assuming they don’t shuffle it at all, Burnes, Woodruff and Peralta are scheduled to go the 27th-29th. Houser would go the 30th and Miley would go the 1st. The Brewers are off on the 25th so they could skip Miley. That would set Burnes up to pitch the 26th and 1st if necessary. But then we wouldn’t see Woodruff or Peralta and would only get Burnes if Game 162 matters.

So it looks like we’d only see 1 of those 3 guys no matter what. If the Brewers clinch by the 29th and still start Peralta, he probably doesn’t go a full 100 pitches either.

[17 Seconds]

the dbacks blew their gallen start vs the mets and now they're blowing the kelly one

[itisallpartoftheplan]

Giants vs Rockies may seem easy for SF, but I’ve heard things can get tricky in Colorado. 

[UMFan83]

17 minutes ago, 17 Seconds said:

the dbacks blew their gallen start vs the mets and now they're blowing the kelly one

Clearly, they were both so tired from giving their best effort in shutting down the Cubs.

Assuming the Mets hang on, the Cubs lead in the playoff race will essentially be 2.5 games.  If the Giants win tonight the real lead is 2, but with the tiebreaker its really 3 games because they have to pass the Cubs. 

All things considered, it could be a lot worse.  Cubs need to do their part now starting tomorrow.

 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Giants/Rockies is postponed, doubleheader Saturday.  So assuming the Mets finish off the last 9 outs with a 7 run lead, all 3 wild card results went the Cubs' way today.

[UMFan83]

6 minutes ago, itisallpartoftheplan said:

Giants vs Rockies may seem easy for SF, but I’ve heard things can get tricky in Colorado. 

Logan Webb vs. Chase Anderson (6.30 ERA) tonight.  For teams that aren't the Cubs, that's a very favorable matchup lol.

I just cant believe we are even talking about the Giants.  When they left Chicago they were essentially 7 GB the Cubs (6 games out and don't own the tiebreaker).  If they win tonight they'll be 3 games out (2 GB without the tiebreaker)

Edited September 14, 2023 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

I guess the other advantage the Cubs have this series (or at least tomorrow) is that they have been in Phoenix since likely late last night and are chilling there now.  The Diamondbacks just finished their game in NY and still have to fly back to Phoenix.  They probably arent getting home until 1am local time.

[UMFan83]

Here is how the standings look after today relative to the Cubs position:

WC1 - Philly 1..5 GA

WC2 - Cubs --

WC3 -Giants (somehow) 2.5 GB (75-71 vs. 76-72 for the DBacks and Reds)

----------------

DBacks - 2.5 GB

Reds - 2.5 GB

Marlins - 3.0 GB

 

This race of mediocre teams has been wild.  There have been times in the last 4-5 weeks that all 4 of the teams chasing the Cubs looked to be fading away, and then they've all turned around and gone on runs to get back in it

Edited September 14, 2023 by UMFan83

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

This race of mediocre teams has been wild.

It certainly has.  I guess this is what MLB wanted though - a bunch of mediocre teams tripping over themselves to claim the last few playoff spots.

[Billy62]

On 9/14/2023 at 7:29 AM, Brock Beauchamp said:

Well, that Rockies series didn't go as planned after the bats decided to take a nap.

There are also some question marks with the pitching with Alzolay being injured. A good time for an off-day and a reset, it seems.

Then it's back to the Diamondbacks, where hopefully the Cubs can post more runs than they did against them in Wrigley.

Well Brock, When the boys are not playing, I still think about them and have my morning coffee out of one of the many Cub mugs I have. This is how sad my life really is. When the season is over I sometimes wish they could medically induce me into a coma, and bring me out of it in early March. This year though, the hawks show some promise, so maybe the winter will not be so bad. So just thinking off the top of my head, I figure this team could be 9-6 down the stretch. This would put them at 87 wins, which is what I picked for them at the start of the season. It is basically a guess and has no factual basis behind it. Just a gut feeling. I figure they will reverse the trend against Arizona and take the series 2-1. I think they will go 2-1 against the pirates as well, before sweeping the rockies. Then it gets tough with the team falling 2-1 to the braves and another 2-1 series loss to the brewers. This would put them at 87-75 for the season. Now of course they have to play the games, which means all of this conjecture could be chicken scratch. Just curious to see how close to the mark I hit, and will 87 wins be enough to qualify us for post-season play?

[Andy]

15 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I guess the other advantage the Cubs have this series (or at least tomorrow) is that they have been in Phoenix since likely late last night and are chilling there now.  The Diamondbacks just finished their game in NY and still have to fly back to Phoenix.  They probably arent getting home until 1am local time.

That didn't work out so hot the last time we had such an advantage (last week against this same team), so I'm not putting much stock into that.

[gflore34]

I see the Marlins are sending Cueto to mound tonight vs. the Braves?  Johnny Cueto?  Against the Braves?  Are you kidding me?  Watch it work, because this kind BS nonsense always seem to work for the Marlins.

[UMFan83]

2 hours ago, Andy said:

That didn't work out so hot the last time we had such an advantage (last week against this same team), so I'm not putting much stock into that.

Would it help if I told you that on top of having to fly home from the East Coast after an 8 game road trip while the Cubs were off, Arizona is also playing on their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive days?  That stuff does matter.  Doesn't guarantee anything but its an advantage for us.

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, UMFan83 said:

Would it help if I told you that on top of having to fly home from the East Coast after an 8 game road trip while the Cubs were off, Arizona is also playing on their 15th, 16th and 17th consecutive days?  That stuff does matter.  Doesn't guarantee anything but its an advantage for us.

It's nice to be on the other end of that for a change.