9/8 - Diamondbacks (Gallen) vs Cubs (Taillon): 1:20pm, Marquee

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

on the bright side, missing the playoffs would probably get rid of ross

I really don't think so.

[17 Seconds]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I really don't think so.

missing the playoffs after having. 90+ percent chance in September would be pretty bad, I think someone would have to take the fall

[soccer10k]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

missing the playoffs after having. 90+ percent chance in September would be pretty bad, I think someone would have to take the fall

I wouldn’t say for sure he’s gone but there would definitely be a decent chance they’d can him.

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, Irrelevant Dude said:

I really don't think so.

He just signed an extension and even if the Cubs collapse they'll probably finish over .500 which is much better than most expected.  They'll just blame it on running out of gas and not being a fully evolved form of the "next great Cubs team" and move forward with Ross.

 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, 17 Seconds said:

missing the playoffs after having. 90+ percent chance in September would be pretty bad, I think someone would have to take the fall

That would suck, but you also have to consider the unlikely rise for them to get to this point in the first place. Unless we see some egregious decision-making down the stretch that costs the Cubs multiple critical games, I don't see them moving on from Ross after this season.

[17 Seconds]

just let me hedge

[UMFan83]

Speaking of playoff odds....yesterday between the Marlins loss and the Cubs loss, they were at....

93% odds per Fangraphs projections

95.6% odds per season to date performance.

 

The newly updated odds have us at 85.6% per their projections and 89.8% based on season to date performance.

 

So we've lost 7.4% and 5.8% over the last 19 hours

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[UMFan83]

Also just realized the Cubs need to now go 4-1 in their last 5 against Arizona to avoid losing yet another tiebreaker to a team directly behind us.

 

OK thats enough dooming for the day

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[gflore34]

3 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Also just realized the Cubs need to now go 4-1 in their last 5 against Arizona to avoid losing yet another tiebreaker to a team directly behind us.

 

OK thats enough dooming for the day

Losing to Arizona is frustrating, OK lineup but, outside of two pitchers, a really not very good pitching staff.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Right now Fangraphs has the NL playoff line at 84 wins, the Diamondbacks the last WC team and Marlins first out at 83.  The Cubs need to go 8-12 to reach 84 wins.

[squally1313]

Cubs lose two games in a row, playoff expectancy over 85%. 
NSBB: should Ross get fired if/when they miss the playoffs 

[UMFan83]

5 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Cubs lose two games in a row, playoff expectancy over 85%. 
NSBB: should Ross get fired if/when they miss the playoffs 

I pushed back last week when you did this but today its fair, its a bit gloomy in here and I've been a part of that.  Fact is we're in a perfectly fine position right now but people are emotionally invested in this team and need to vent when they have a frustrating loss.  The dark clouds are already leaving my head and I'm ready to get behind our ace tomorrow.  

just wish we didnt have this stretch of 17 out of 20 games against teams were directly competing against.  Feels like I'm way too on edge lately (and we've gone 7-5 during that stretch!)

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[17 Seconds]

anti-doom: we should miss gallen and Kelly next weekend

[soccer10k]

11 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Right now Fangraphs has the NL playoff line at 84 wins, the Diamondbacks the last WC team and Marlins first out at 83.  The Cubs need to go 8-12 to reach 84 wins.

Even if you bump that a bit to 86, that means 10-10. Get 2 of the remaining 5 against Arizona, 6 of 9 against Col and Pit and then 2 of 6 against Atl and Mil to end the year.

[UMFan83]

1 minute ago, soccer10k said:

Even if you bump that a bit to 86, that means 10-10. Get 2 of the remaining 5 against Arizona, 6 of 9 against Col and Pit and then 2 of 6 against Atl and Mil to end the year.

And there's at least 2 playoff spots we're fighting for.  Even if one of the other 3 (I'm excluding the Giants for now) gets red hot, there's still a spot for us.  Just hate that we are looking like we'll lose the tiebreaker to all 3 of those teams, makes the margin for error less.

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[17 Seconds]

the position the cubs are in is solid, but they should be running away from these teams based on run differential. that is what is frustrating. I know run differential is meaningless, but the disparity is massive

[UMFan83]

Remaining schedules:

Cubs (8 home, 12 away) - 2 vs AZ, 3 @ COL, 3 @ AZ, 3 vs PIT, 3 vs COL, 3 @ ATL, 3 @ MIL

DBags (8 home, 12 away) - 2 @ CHC, 4 @ NYM, 3 vs CHC, 2 vs SF, 3 @ NYY, 3 @ CWS, 3 vs HOU

Reds (9 home, 10 away) - 3 vs STL, 3 @ DET, 3 @ NYM, 3 vs MIN, 3 vs PIT, 2 @ CLE, 3 @ STL

Marlins - (9 home, 13 away) - 3 @ PHI, 4 @ MIL, 3 vs ATL, 3 vs NYM, 3 vs. MIL, 3 @ NYM

 

Marlins will probably play themselves out of contention with that schedule but the DBacks and Reds have pretty easy schedules remaining.  I only see 2 series combined against playoff teams outside of the Cubs series.  It's pretty important that we win at least 2 if not 3 of the 5 remaining DBacks games.  The Reds arent really that good but can easily see them getting hot with that schedule.  If the Diamondbacks stay too close to us, they don't even need to get *that* hot to pull even with us.

Edit: Goddammit I said I was done glooming, my bad.  Just wanted to lay it all out there.  Anything can happen in baseball, but I see the Cubs target line being closer to 86 or 87 wins given our opponents schedule and the lack of any tiebreakers.  12-8 or 13-7 is doable for a team that has been playing on 100 win pace for a long time though.

 

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[squally1313]

22 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

I pushed back last week when you did this but today its fair, its a bit gloomy in here and I've been a part of that.  Fact is we're in a perfectly fine position right now but people are emotionally invested in this team and need to vent when they have a frustrating loss.  The dark clouds are already leaving my head and I'm ready to get behind our ace tomorrow.  

just wish we didnt have this stretch of 17 out of 20 games against teams were directly competing against.  Feels like I'm way too on edge lately (and we've gone 7-5 during that stretch!)

Yeah I’m kinda trying to find a middle ground too, while also trying to move away from the ‘well it’s a game thread, of course people are going to be negative’ mentality. It’s not like the regular threads are significantly better. It’s an overperforming team (compared to everyone’s expectations in march) that has been really fun, and really stressful to watch. Going to be ups and downs. 

[abuck1220]

56 minutes ago, squally1313 said:

Cubs lose two games in a row, playoff expectancy over 85%. 
NSBB: should Ross get fired if/when they miss the playoffs 

another way to look at it is in this hypothetical where the cubs miss the playoffs this year, ross would have been the manager for 4 seasons and won 0 playoff games. that should get him fired. kind of surprised that’s even debatable. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by abuck1220

[CubinNY]

Baseball managers are only useful around the margins. The Cubs have had a lot of margins to expose Ross for better or worse. My opinion is that like a lot of baseball lifers, he has a penchant for veterans and he has a problem with letting starting pitchers go too long. But the time he does pull a guy early this happens. So.. he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. He's very likely a net positive overall. His teams play hard all the time even when they don't have too.

[squally1313]

30 minutes ago, abuck1220 said:

another way to look at it is in this hypothetical where the cubs miss the playoffs this year, ross would have been the manager for 4 seasons and won 0 playoff games. that should get him fired. kind of surprised that’s even debatable. 

I was more focused on the fact that we were earnestly talking about this hypothetical when the reality is that Ross ‘took’ a team that was supposed to be 500 and has them on pace to win like 87 games and make the playoffs. 
 

(managers are probably pretty worthless but serve as good fall guys)

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

The Reds arent really that good but can easily see them getting hot with that schedule. 

I'm doing my part. I put money on the Reds tonight and that's usually enough to make sure they don't win.

[UMFan83]

Tomorrows starter Merrill Kelly’s last 3 starts. Which one are we getting?

7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 12 K

5 IP, 12 H, 7 R, 3 BB, 1 K 

7 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 12 K

FWIW the one blowup start was against the Dodgers and he was battling cramps all game. 

Edited September 8, 2023 by UMFan83

[Rcal10]

I honestly did not understand taking Taillon out after 77 pitches. Why not let him go another inning and then go to Merryweather. If Cuas is your second guy out of the pen, you need to let your pitcher go another inning and get 7 in, go Merryweather and then Alzolay. 

[Irrelevant Dude]

1 minute ago, Rcal10 said:

If Cuas is your second guy out of the pen

I would put Palencia above Cuas at this point in the circle of trust rankings