Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-25-23

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Scheduled Games (All Times Central):

Iowa at Indianapolis, 6:05 pm
Tennessee at Chattanooga, 6:15 pm
South Bend vs. Cedar Rapids, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach vs. Kannapolis, 6:05 pm

Probable Starters:

Iowa: RHP Caleb Kilian (93 IP, 3.87 ERA, 4.79 FIP, 70 K, 29 BB)
Tennessee: RHP Walker Powell (99.2 IP, 3.79 ERA, 5.04 FIP, 89 K, 20 BB)
South Bend: RHP Brody McCullough (28.2 IP, 4.08 ERA, 3.72 FIP, 26 K, 10 BB)
Myrtle Beach: RHP Kevin Valdez (27.1 IP, 2.30 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 25 K, 18 BB)

[Jason Ross]

Wicks has left Iowa.  Birch suggests he's in line to start tomorrow for the Cubs

[CaliforniaRaisin]

6 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Wicks has left Iowa.  Birch suggests he's in line to start tomorrow for the Cubs

I would prefer Saturday to Sunday so Wicks is closer to his normal day and it allows Assad to get an extra day of rest.

[Jason Ross]

4 minutes ago, CaliforniaRaisin said:

I would prefer Saturday to Sunday so Wicks is closer to his normal day and it allows Assad to get an extra day of rest.

Same here.  I'd guess it's Saturday myself considering the logic of everything.  

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Owen Caissie is back in the Tennessee lineup after missing a few games.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Shaw HR

[We Got The Whole 9]

5 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Shaw HR

Another oppo shot 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

26 minutes ago, Transmogrified Tiger said:

Shaw HR

Again

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Shaw and Alcántara went back-to-back

[CaliforniaRaisin]

So Shaw is on page for 8 homers today (unless South Bend’s pitching goes south, in which case, he’s on pace for 9 homers).

[We Got The Whole 9]

Just ripped an RBI double 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

PCA slumping a bit, OPS down to .839 after an 0 for 3, BB, 2 K.  Even had a fielding error.

Real good outing for Kilian though: 6 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 7/0 K/BB, 0 HR

[NorthsideAvenger]

If Matt Shaw hits AA before the end of the year, does that change his timeline to Chicago or would he still be on track for 2025?

[muntjack]

Is there a material difference between Theo and Jed's promotion philosophies?  KB was a monster for 300 AA PAs, but they still had him stop in Iowa for over 300 more before coming up.  Morel, on the other hand....

[mul21]

1 hour ago, muntjack said:

Is there a material difference between Theo and Jed's promotion philosophies?  KB was a monster for 300 AA PAs, but they still had him stop in Iowa for over 300 more before coming up.  Morel, on the other hand....

I don't think those are situations you can really glean a philosophy from.  KB was going to be a great player and they were delaying the service time clock to keep him for an extra year and with Morel he's an obvious unfinished/flawed product and very likely isn't going to be a superstar that you miss having an extra year of control on.

I think comparing how maybe Happ and PCA are handled is probably a better 1:1 if you're looking for a barometer of each guy's philosophies.

[Tim]

6 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

3 hits including a 2B for Murray Jr. 

Question: what’s Murray got to do to be more widely seen as being part of the ancient and sacred order of Top 10 org prospects? 

Be an average to plus defender at 3B?

As a first baseman, he's not differentiated (results-wise) from a guy like McGeary. Yes, I'm aware of the difference between FB% there, but that isn't the only measure most people have for hitters. McGeary reportedly hits the ball a hell of lot harder, for example, and the performance numbers at AA are damn near equal.

Overall, just from a position player perspective, I'd have him definitely behind:

• PCA - much higher total value with defense & speed
• Caissie - better performance, three years younger at the same level
• Alcantara - primarily based on the tools, but age / level comes into play, defensive value
• Shaw - 1st round pick, has been really good so far in his first exposure to pro ball

I'd likely have him behind these guys:

• Ballesteros - age / level, raw performance is better, 1% chance of sticking at C
• Rojas - age / level, defensive value
• Canario - louder tools, same age / level higher, better performance (when not rusty) last 18 months
• Vazquez - defensive value is reportedly very strong as a plus SS, has hit very well this year
• Triantos - age/level, potential defensive value as a 2B, contact rate

I'd have him in the same group as these guys unless I hear more about him playing a positive 3B:

• McGeary - If they're both 1B's, it is a tossup who is a better hitter (yeah, yeah, fly balls, blah, blah)
• Mervis - Another 1B, who has had a better season than either other guy (yeah, yeah, fly balls, blah, blah)
• Aliendo - the defensive value is a big plus here as a catcher
• Perlaza - He's doing now at 24 what Murray is likely to do next year at Iowa at age 24

Add in the pitchers and he's not really all that close to top 10 for me. Now, if I heard he's been playing a plus third base? That changes things and moves him up into that second grouping for certain.

Note - I've done this off the top of my head and I'm probably forgetting guys.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

For me the big question with Murray, assuming that he's a positionless bat, 1B/DH type at the MLB level, is about the power.  He can clearly put bat to ball and has an excellent walk rate, but prior to this year he wasn't doing the XBH damage you need with that positional profile(and age).  This year has been a nice jump up in that regard, though I'm slightly concerned how much of it has been at home(.989 OPS at home, .790 road) given how HR happy that stadium has been.  By contrast, Caissie has a .900+ OPS both home and away, and McGeary has been weirdly inverted with an OPS 85 points higher on the road(though that includes his first month in South Bend).

[Transmogrified Tiger]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I don’t get the basis for either of these assumptions so far (Perlaza’s line, the 1B/DH comment) when they fly in the face of what’s played out this year 

Given the scouting reports on his defense are not glowing I don't think it's all that likely he's playing 3B on more than an emergency/handful of games a year basis at the major league level.  They have different shortcomings, but by way of comparison the team gave plenty of innings on the infield to Morel(at both the minor and major league levels) when the stakes didn't matter, but on a team that was trying to win that got snuffed out pretty quick.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Why do they have to be glowing? MLB.com literally states he's adequate at 3B with room to improve with playing time (literally what's happened in 2023!). Throw in that the defensive reports don't glow about McGeary, Rojas, Shaw, Triantos, Mervis, Perlaza, Ballesteros - all whom he's outhitting this year...what even are the standards here?

The MLB.com report also literally states that Murray 'needs to improve to play there in the big leagues', I don't think I'm being uncharitable when I assume that a good team is not going to want to play Murray at 3B at the MLB level with frequency.  As with most things with prospects that could change good or bad with more info/dev time, but to answer your original question, that's the basis for thinking of him as a positionless bat. 

Otherwise, that's a real wide range of prospects, ranging from a 1st round pick shredding A+ with positional value to guys hitting as well as Murray a level above, to unrefined projection plays, to guys who I think of as similar(McGeary) or worse(Perlaza) prospects than Murray.  I had Murray in my most recent Top 20, and if you're convinced he's a functional 3B then I would get the instinct to rank him even higher, though I don't really see the case for Top 10 if we're including pitchers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yes that’s why i said also and mirrored your wording.  Him playing games at 3B is not synonymous with making improvements though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

What else could be that is freely available to all of us? Why isn't this same standard used for any of Shaw, McGeary, Caissie, Rojas, and so on on defense when deciding their prospect status?

We aren't considering Shaw and Rojas to be locked on MLB SS despite playing the bulk of their time there, so feels pretty consistent to me.  McGeary I've already told you I think is a similar prospect to Murray, and Caissie I've said multiple times I think is a 1B/DH at the MLB level despite him mostly playing RF.  Not really sure what you're expecting to see here.

[craig]

10 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

3 hits including a 2B for Murray Jr. 

Question: what’s Murray got to do to be more widely seen as being part of the ancient and sacred order of Top 10 org prospects? 

As Tim and mogrified mentioned, the 3B defense is the path.  When he improves himself so that people perceive him as a capable every-day big-league 3B defender, people will include him in top-10 discussion. 

A short 5'10" guy has no wing-span at 1B, so 1B is no path.  

If he never surpasses liability-emergency capacity at 3B and 1B, top 10 isn't appropriate. 

 

[craig]

Tom, I'm the one obsessed with 1B defense, I often think that's almost the most impactful defensive position on the field given how many plays they're involved.  After seeing Bellinger there, I'm reminded often of how great it is to have his range on all the throws.  I'd never want a Donovan Solano playing 1B for my team.  

I can't speak for others, but for me the capacity to play a spot defensively applies to anybody who's in or near my top-10.  It's one (among other) reasons why I think it's ludicrous for anybody to include Triantos in their top-10's.  At present, he projects as a liabilility at any defensive spot.  It's certainly a question with Caissie, too.  He's got a rocket in RF, but I don't get the sense his range is good, and guys don't normally get rangier as they add years.  So, *IF* he really shakes out as DH-only, is Caissie's bat THAT good?  (With his power potential, it might be; but it's a pretty high bar.  And with all his K's, it's tough.). Ballesteros, likewise.  Can he actually catch?  If so, I love him as a prospect.  But if he can't, I can't put him in a top 10.  He's even shorter than Murray, no way I want Ballesteros playing 1B more than on a once-in-a-while contingency basis.  

 

[craig]

Murray's not going to get top-10'd as a 5'10" defensive 1B, that's all I'm saying.  Your question was what he needs to do to get discussed among the top-10 guys.  The answer is to emerge as a guy with starter-caliber 3B-defense.  It's not complicated.  

Cubs have a good and a deep system. Guys who aren't top-10 will have successful careers, and outperform guys who rated higher.  The "top-10-or-not" issue doesn't matter to me.  

[We Got The Whole 9]

Caissie is significantly younger. It's pretty obvious why he gets more leniency. But man none of this matters. Are you taking umbrage with this board's top 10 or is this more of a general ranking among the masses? You are completely obsessed with this and I don't even see anyone here that doesn't actually like Murray.