Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 8-25-23

[CaliforniaRaisin]

17 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

It just seems suuuuuper arbitrary that suddenly defensive potential, and height/wingspan, is a factor for this one guy doing all the right things on offense *and* defense when no one else is held to this plus or bust standard to join the order. I guess a true follow up question would be why does this guy need a conclusively plus defensive profile at 3B or a uncertain certain wing span and height when it’s not a pre-req anywhere else and it’s pretty easy to make the case he’s outhitting the vast majority? 

The height thing especially…The Mariners have been one of the better teams the past two years with a 5’11 1B, Muncy’s made 300+ starts for a perennial WS contender at a generously listed 1” taller, Donovan Solano’s starting for a division leader at 5’8”…You can tell the rules are made up because they apply to no one else without explanation! 

I think it’s clear defense has mattered for a while when you consider how highly PCA has ranked even when offensive questions have bubbled up and how much lower Ballesteros and Caissie are ranked considering their offensive abilities combined with ARL.

[craig]

On 8/26/2023 at 11:26 PM, TomtheBombadil said:

Just to highlight the offense…Among all AA hitters 24 or younger with at least 400 PAs (53 hitters) entering today Murray is:

..
20th in HRs

12th in BA..

7th in SLG%

12th in IsoSLG..

No knock on Murray.  But 20th in HR's, 7th in slugging, batting in the .260's, having an .865 OPS, those are good but not "wow" offensive numbers. 

Not "next-great-DH" numbers for a 23-year-old.  He may project to add significantly more power, I don't know?   As you've noted his baseball experience may not match his age, so hopefully he's got a lot more improvement ahead.  I'm guessing that physically, he probably doesn't have a lot of "when he fills out he'll add more power" projection left?  

[Tim]

1 hour ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Again I would submit this player is being held to standards no one else in the org has to meet. Who is he competing with to be in the org’s top 10 that has whatever wow offensive numbers would be?

 

Your argument really comes down to launch angle or FB/GB ratio. It is absolutely an important thing. But it isn't everything when evaluating a hitter. Guys to get to their production in different ways. His actual production isn't clearly differentiated from that third tier of guys I had him in. Everyone above him have advantages in age relative to league, tools, defensive value, contact rate, exit velocity or some combination of factors. 

I like Murray as a prospect. I accept that given what you emphasize, he's definitely a top 10 prospect in the system. But others of us (apparently all of us), have additional factors that we weight differently than you when looking at a ranking. The discussion isn't really about Murray as much as it is how to weight those different factors when evaluating prospects.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd also again point out that denominators are doing some misleading about the magnitude of the differences between Murray and those immediate comparables when it comes to the underlying dynamic we're saying is good.  As a simplified example, taking FB + HR + LD - IFFB as a measure of 'hitting the ball hard in the air', Murray is at 174 per 500 PA, McGeary is at 168, and Caissie 161.

[Outshined_One]

[craig]

2 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Again I would submit this player is being held to standards no one else in the org has to meet. Who is he competing with to be in the org’s top 10 that has whatever wow offensive numbers would be?

 

I don't get the "inconsistent standards" complaint!  What no-position prospects are ranked in the org's top 10?  

PCA, Alcantara, Shaw, all are perceived as position-capable by people who top-10 them.  And I imagine people who top-10 Caissie do that with the perception that he can play RF/LF. 

So where's the inconsistency of standards?   Nobody is ranking McGeary top 10.   

Edited August 28, 2023 by craig

[CubinNY]

8 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

lol You know…In hindsight the honey approach would be more like “wow this guy’s doing pretty much everything I want to see, getting better as the PAs pile up! That’s grand, top 10 and even 5 are seriously in play for me if he doesn’t collapse” 

Edit: It doesn’t close the door but makes more sense than asking a question, getting an answer, and then insisting you’re wrong (then why ask). Props to all involved

It’s an opinion, so what is there to argue about. The objective facts are what they are. You put attribution on a thing that some other guy doesn’t. And some other guy points out something you don’t think is as important. Who gives a a tiny turd whether Murray is ranked 8 or 18? It doesn’t matter. Rankings are ordinal measures with extremely loose objective anchors. You’re getting worked up because people don’t share your sentiment about what position in line a guy should be. 

Edited August 29, 2023 by CubinNY