8/12 - Cubs (Steele) vs Blue Jays (Bassitt): 2:07pm, Marquee

[UMFan83]

For fun, here are upcoming schedules after this series:

Cubs:

2 vs. CWS

3 vs. KC

3 @ DET

4 @ PIT

3 vs. MIL

 

Reds:

2 vs. CLE

3 vs. TOR

3 @ LAA

4 @ ARI

3 @ SF

 

MIL:

3 @ LAD

3 @ TEX

2 vs. MIN

3 vs. SD

3 @ CHC

 

MIA: 

3 vs. HOU

3 @ LAD

3 @ SD

3 vs. WAS

2 vs. TB

 

So basically all our competitors have pretty damn tough schedules coming up while the Cubs get to play the dregs of the AL and NL Central.  Nothing is written in stone but the schedules REALLY play out in our favor the next couple of weeks.

Edited August 13, 2023 by UMFan83

[bukie]

I appreciate the shade in referring to MIL as a dreg of the NL Central.

[UMFan83]

White Sox blow a 2 run lead over Brewers in the 7th. Bastards

[CubinNY]

2 hours ago, chopsx9 said:

Toronto media is bewildered at how they Jays could be losing to a non AL East team.  They were counting on a minimum of 2 wins.  LOL.  I'm like a pig in slop.

They are sweeping these shitbirds tomorrow 

[UMFan83]

Brewers win 3-2.  Cubs remain 2.5 games behind in the Central

[chibears55]

7 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

Brewers win 3-2.  Cubs remain 2.5 games behind in the Central

Gotta feeling this will come down to the 6 remaining head to head against each other

[Brian707]

Don't worry about the Brewers.  Cubs will overtake them by September 1st and not look back 

[Brock Beauchamp]

4 minutes ago, Brian707 said:

Don't worry about the Brewers.  Cubs will overtake them by September 1st and not look back 

That's a bold statement given that the Brewers just got Brandon Woodruff back after four months on the IL.

I think it's going to come to head-to-head matchups but if both teams keep playing the way they have, both will make the postseason.

[gocubs218]

Regardless of how it happened, everyone would have taken a 3-3 road-trip at the beginning of it. Still have a chance at 4-2, which would be just bonus points.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 minute ago, gocubs218 said:

Regardless of how it happened, everyone would have taken a 3-3 road-trip at the beginning of it. Still have a chance at 4-2, which would be just bonus points.

Welcome to NSBB!

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

That's a bold statement given that the Brewers just got Brandon Woodruff back after four months on the IL.

I think it's going to come to head-to-head matchups but if both teams keep playing the way they have, both will make the postseason.

And hey those amazing Brewers managed to cross into positive run differential today. Unstoppable force

[UMFan83]

2 minutes ago, The20thK said:

How have the Brewers been playing? This is their last 7 series

ATL 1-2

CIN 2-1

ATL 0-3

WSH 1-2

PIT 2-2

COL 2-1

CWS 2-? 
 

W/L 10-11

I hope they keep playing like they are, cause the Cubs should over take them with 2 weeks. 

I like cocky NSBB

[Brock Beauchamp]

16 minutes ago, UMFan83 said:

And hey those amazing Brewers managed to cross into positive run differential today. Unstoppable force

No one in the NLC is unstoppable, far from it. But the Brewers have the right pieces in the right places to keep things very competitive through September. Will they win the NLC?

*shrugs*

I'm not really even sure that matters. The way things are going, I think both the Brewers and Cubs make the postseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

24 minutes ago, The20thK said:

How have the Brewers been playing? This is their last 7 series

ATL 1-2

CIN 2-1

ATL 0-3

WSH 1-2

PIT 2-2

COL 2-1

CWS 2-? 

W/L 10-11

I hope they keep playing like they are, cause the Cubs should over take them with 2 weeks. 

Whoooooo, arbitrary start and endpoints are rad!

[UMFan83]

Giants and Phillies both lost. Cubs now 1.5 and 3.5 games behind each respectively

[soccer10k]

1 hour ago, UMFan83 said:

Giants and Phillies both lost. Cubs now 1.5 and 3.5 games behind each respectively

The Giants could be in some trouble in about 2 weeks. After this Texas series, they go Tampa, Atlanta, Philly, Atlanta. Even after that it's Cincy, San Diego, Cubs. If things go bad, they could be a couple games out of the WC by the end of August. Of course, outside of the Cubs, none of the other teams chasing them appear all that interested in winning baseball games right now.

[UMFan83]

8 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Would you like more or less series included? Is the last 7 series not sufficient to say “this is the way they are playing.”? 

The Cubs are 50-50 in their last 100 games, they are thoroughly mediocre

Edited August 13, 2023 by UMFan83

[Brock Beauchamp]

9 minutes ago, The20thK said:

Would you like more or less series included? Is the last 7 series not sufficient to say “this is the way they are playing.”? 

My point is that you started with a series they lost to the Braves, not the series before that they won (or the series before that, which they also won), or the following series, which they won.

Hence the arbitrary endpoints. You can almost always control the narrative of a baseball season by using specific endpoints.

[Brock Beauchamp]

55 minutes ago, The20thK said:

And you see those two series prior to the last 7 has been more indicative of the way the Brewers are playing today?

They’ve won four in a row. Are those previous five series more indicative of how they’re playing today?

It feels like you’re being intentionally obtuse. I can tell all sorts of stories about both the Cubs and Brewers based on where I start counting. 

[UMFan83]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

They’ve won four in a row. Are those previous five series more indicative of how they’re playing today?

It feels like you’re being intentionally obtuse. I can tell all sorts of stories about both the Cubs and Brewers based on where I start counting. 

That 4 wins in a row consisted of playing 2 teams that are on average 26 games under .500.  They won the first one by 1 in the 10th inning, the second one by 1 in the 10th inning, the third one by 1 run before finally winning a game by a decent margin (4 runs) today.

I don't think the Brewers are playing all that well right now.  Of course, they way they are built (bad offense, good pitching) they will naturally play many more close games, and to their credit they won the games when they easily could have gone 2-2 or 1-3 in that stretch.

As it stands, the gap between the Cubs and Brewers SOS has only widened over the last week or two.  Based on pure record, the average remaining Brewers opponent is roughly 5 wins better than the average Cubs opponent (82-80 team vs. 77-85 team), and if you go by Fangraphs remaining SOS, the gap is even larger at 7 games (83-79 team vs. 76-86 team).   I think that difference in schedule is enough to cover the 3.5 game gap and the division will come down to the 6 H2H games.

This isn't really responding to anything specific in this argument, just general thoughts on Cubs vs. Brewers.

[Brock Beauchamp]

12 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

That 4 wins in a row consisted of playing 2 teams that are on average 26 games under .500.  They won the first one by 1 in the 10th inning, the second one by 1 in the 10th inning, the third one by 1 run before finally winning a game by a decent margin (4 runs) today.

I don't think the Brewers are playing all that well right now.  Of course, they way they are built (bad offense, good pitching) they will naturally play many more close games, and to their credit they won the games when they easily could have gone 2-2 or 1-3 in that stretch.

As it stands, the gap between the Cubs and Brewers SOS has only widened over the last week or two.  Based on pure record, the average remaining Brewers opponent is roughly 5 wins better than the average Cubs opponent (82-80 team vs. 77-85 team), and if you go by Fangraphs remaining SOS, the gap is even larger at 7 games (83-79 team vs. 76-86 team).   I think that difference in schedule is enough to cover the 3.5 game gap and the division will come down to the 6 H2H games.

This isn't really responding to anything specific in this argument, just general thoughts on Cubs vs. Brewers.

I agree with all of that. The Brewers have played over their heads a bit, as evidenced by their run diff. But those wins are now banked and if Milwaukee's health continues to hold, they're a better team right now than they were during those banked wins so their previous mediocrity may not represent who they are today.

But the SoS favors the Cubs, which should make this a tight race until the end unless one of the two dominates in head-to-head matchups.