Plan your own trade deadline

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've been thinking about what types of moves might happen at the deadline that mirror the Martin/McKinstry deal from last year.  Moves that don't move the needle in a significant way, but add a hopefully useful player that fits the roster well.  This is a bit ironic since McKinstry didn't make it to Opening Day 2023, but given his success with the Tigers hopefully you can see the intent behind the exercise.  The state of the org doesn't have a ton of these compared to previous seasons, but a couple come to mind:

Platoon CF - In a perfect world, this is someone who is a strong defender(to keep the defense-first approach strong), and hits RH to provide a natural balance with Tauchman in the short term and PCA in the longer term(assuming Bellinger isn't kept).  By doing this in a lower stakes deal you get that benefit without much cost.  Some names that pop up from scanning teams that may be buying: 

• Johan Rojas (PHI) - Maybe a bit beyond the grasp of a trade for someone like Fulmer, but possibly if they decide to move Merryweather or even Wisdom given their roster setup.  Rojas is gonna struggle to break through with his CF-specific profile and Marsh in front of him, plus Pache having a very similar profile already on the roster.
• Jorge Barrosa (ARI) - A little lesser a prospect but really fits this profile.  Biggest downside is that he's a switch hitter that hits better from the left side.  Barrosa is down the list in an OF heavy 40 man that is gonna be looking to add at the deadline.

Positionless bat - 1B/DH is very much unsettled, and while there are players around who could fit into this especially at DH(looking at you Morel), having another option to roll the dice on could help with striking gold.  Increasingly if you look at the 1B leaders you see lots of pop up prospects so there's a chance to get some nice arbitrage in fixing a big hole at potentially a trivial cost.  Some names that come to mind

• Matt Wallner (MIN) - Wallner has hit everywhere but despite a stellar couple weeks on the MLB roster he went back to AAA because there's no room.
• Dustin Harris (TEX) - Harris probably needs some more seasoning to make sure his future power plays, but he's not an imminent contender for a big league role and Texas is gonna be making a playoff push.
• Taylor Trammel (SEA) - More of a failed prospect profile that's closer to McKinstry, he hasn't shown he belongs at MLB level yet but the all around package is enticing if a new org can unlock him.

 

What other roles would you think of for a more minor trade that has the possibility to be bigger than the sum of its parts?

[Brock Beauchamp]

I split this into its own topic because I had a task item set for tomorrow to write up almost this exact post but TT wrote it for me!

Instead of discussing what the Cubs are going to do, what would you do at the deadline? What do you want to see?

[Tryptamine]

If I'm not concerned with proximity to mlb or position and only talent, I'd go with this.

Stroman to Bal for Samuel Basallo and Seth Johnson

If I'm trying to make the 2024 squad better, I'm throwing Stroman+Merryweather for Mayo and a lottery ticket.

[JD94]

7 minutes ago, Tryptamine said:

If I'm not concerned with proximity to mlb or position and only talent, I'd go with this.

Stroman to Bal for Samuel Basallo and Seth Johnson

If I'm trying to make the 2024 squad better, I'm throwing Stroman+Merryweather for Mayo and a lottery ticket.

Basallo is very intriguing. To me though, I’d target ready / near ready bats. Coby Mayo is #1 on my wish list for the deadline for Stroman. 3B is a black hole throughout the organization basically, and although I do have concerns whether Mayo sticks at 3rd, he seems like best case scenario. I’m just not sure anybody else can or will offer a higher upside bat than Mayo. 

[JBears79]

Id take anything the Orioles and Rays will give us for Stro or Bellinger. Id prefer bats that are closer to the bigs over pitching since I really like our pitching talent coming up and this years FA crop has Stro, Nola and Urias in it. 

[UMFan83]

35 minutes ago, JBears79 said:

Id take anything the Orioles and Rays will give us for Stro or Bellinger. Id prefer bats that are closer to the bigs over pitching since I really like our pitching talent coming up and this years FA crop has Stro, Nola and Urias in it. 

I thought everyone agreed to never trade with the Rays

[JBears79]

not a bad point. They have a lot of interesting prospects though

[Jason Ross]

9 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I thought everyone agreed to never trade with the Rays

I'd trust the Cubs to trade with Tampa Bay.  When you trade with Tampa Bay, I think you have to recognize they know their minor league system incredibly well, and have a very strong developmental team, but also a very strong analytical and modeling team.   The Cubs, especially over the last few years, have done a pretty wonderful job picking prospects from systems.  The Rays are incredibly deep, the Cubs are good at modeling data and prospect picking...I think we'd do fine.  Baltimore is my favorite team to trade with, but Tampa Bay is right up there as probably my second favorite.  Some teams cannot handle Tampa in trades, but I'd expect the Cubs to do well.

[Jason Ross]

14 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Memember when the Cubs traded prospect flavor of the week, Pedro Martinez, to the Rays during the pandemic? Everyone pooped their pants over The Future stolen, how stupid and dumb and behind the Cubs were? He’s in the Phillies org now after posting a sub-.600 OPB btw ‘21-‘22

Beyond not reeeeeaaaaallly seeing a fit (tbf I haven’t looked,) for impact talent coming to the Cubs, I’ve got no worries about dealing with that franchise 

I think the Rays would be interested in Marcus Stroman...especially if the Cubs eat money on the way over (which they 100% should).  If there's a hole in the Rays at the MLB level, it's their pitching.  Their xFIP over the last 30 days is tops in the majors which suggests regression to the mean should be coming, but they're the 4th worst SP ERA in the last 30, and only 10th in FIP.  Why the big distinction in ERA vs xFIP; tons of HR's given up...and I'm not sure the xFIP is being fair; the Rays probably had negative regression coming there and they're finding it.  Their rotation is buoyed by the generally good, but not elite Zach Eflin, excellent Shane McClannahan, and Tyler Glasnow, but past that it's thin.  Bradley is an excellent prospect but hasn't been great, Criswell is freshly returned.  Overall the Rays have been sinking over their last 45 games or so.  With the Yankees and the Red Sox below them, I think they're in a unique situation to buy a player like Stroman; they're looking at a possible division win, and they're very strong defensively; they lead the league in SS DRS, they're 11th in 2b DRS, and 12th in 3b DRS; so they have a strong infield to support Stroman.  

 

 

[Brock Beauchamp]

11 hours ago, UMFan83 said:

I thought everyone agreed to never trade with the Rays

Trading with the Rays is overblown, they're not magicians. I consider them much smarter than the Twins front office overall and the Twins have won every trade they've had with the Rays in the past five years (and by a lot).

[Jason Ross]

2 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Tbh I’m less worried about their wants than Cubs here. Caminero, Manzardo, and Mead don’t have a ton of appeal to Cubs as I sees it and I imagine they’re the most popular options.  The only flyball hitter in the bunch is Manzardo, and comments suggest he’s low-mediocre EV and bad defense. They’re the kind of prospects the Cubs should turn around and flip for a buy, but if they’re selling for four more years of rebuild until conditions are perfectly perfect they add to an already massive pool of prospects that (at this stage) have more nominal than real value on the (MLB) field

If the Cubs can get Curtis Mead for Marcus Stroman, I would expect the Cubs would gladly pack Stroman's bags for him, deliver him to the airport in the nicest luxury vehicle available, and fly him first class on a boutique airline to Tampa Bay.  Curtis Mead is a top-30 prospect in all of baseball with plus game power who's just struggled a bit initially in Durham.  I frankly cannot imagine the Cubs getting a better return than Curtis Mead.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Tom you and I are in alignment more than most about this trade deadline but I'm concerned that a ground ball killed one of your loved ones.

[Jason Ross]

17 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

In the context of a prospect environment in which there’s 30+ top 30s like three times a year these days, I find this more noisy than not. My thinking on a better return not being realistic or available is to be buying if stars are so cheap

The context I'm using is my personal belief there aren't 30 better young players in the minors if I'm looking at the MiLB right now.  There aren't many guys who grade out across the board as a 50-55 hit tool, 60-game power tool hitter.  The question about sticking at 3b is real, and I avoid home-scouting defense (I think it's truly an impossible task for so many reasons), but after some deep dives on his offensive game, he's a legitimately excellent hitter.  The swing is great, the swing decisions are great.  He's short to the ball, not a lot of moving parts. and has power that plays the other way.  He's changed his hand placement a bit this year; he started earlier much lower than previous seasons but has gone back up with his hands.  I'm okay with his hands up, I think he gets leverage there when he stays short.  I think it helps him "stretch the rubber band" so to speak, and creates power.

 

If the Cubs get Curtis Mead on a 1 for 1 swap I wouldn't call that cheap.  Based on the current landscape on how teams have handled prospects, and especially the landscape of MLB 3b...it's an overpay.

Edited July 20, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

3 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

I‘m fully on board with Mead being like a good offensive prospect, better than most in the minors even, but also support the Cubs being eeeeeeveeen more picky about what kind of skills are coming in to stay.* He sounds like JD Davis with more benefit of the doubt because prospect. That’s a nice MLer but I’m not falling over myself to move a star for him

*Now if this is to set up something bigger…yay…but also complicated and prob unnecessary 

I also think an environment where Mead is a steal for Stroman is one a team like the Cubs can do some damage. They have a Top 10 (6 from Kiley McD iirc) farm fat with nominal prospects but short on real performance and track record. Use it before you lose it! 

I've got Mead closer to a Bregman and less of a JD Davis.  Defensive scouting on him has him between a 35 and a 45 based on where you see him.  That's not a 1:1 to Bregman, I'm not saying he's destined for 8 fWAR, but the hit tool is considerably better than Davis, and if we're talking "upside" he's closer to Bregman than Davis for me.  I try my best to avoid direct comparisons (I find they create unfair expectations for prospects that they can never live up to), but I think he's closer to that stylistically.  Maybe a Bregman-style hitter with more league average-ish defense or slightly below.  I think he's about the best potential outcome the Cubs can get in my book, but different folks for different strokes, right?

Edited July 20, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[Jason Ross]

1 minute ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Bregman’s one of the best flyball hitters in the game on top of having elite plate discipline and being a plus 3B defender. I don’t believe Mead’s even particularly close to this kind of player 

Well, I'd really ask you to re-read my post because I think I covered all of those things.  I was very careful to say it, but I'll say it again:

* wasn't a 1:1 comparison and I really don't like direct comparisons because it makes unrealistic expectations

* that he's a Bregman style hitter (not fielder), and that I'm not saying he's an 8 fWAR player

 

But if we're talking stylistically...yeah I think they're similar-ish.  There's plenty of lift in the swing profile of Mead; he's got a good swing to generate the ball in the air.  He's not going to strike out a lot, he makes good swing decisions.  I know FG shows a lot of GB's...those numbers can be pretty unreliable; again, I love FG but MiLB batted ball data is...all over the place and their stat tracking is bonkers at times.  I'm more interested in the swing profile and there's plenty of lift to be generated there, especially as he's moved his hands from being lower (which was creating extra movement in the hands) to higher again (which creates less movement = that's good).  I think there can be even more power unlocked with small tweaks.  He's also an exit velocity monster, posting some of the best EV's in the minors a few years running.  We also know that players with strong contact rates correlate at some of the highest levels to productive MLB hitters.  

We'll have to disagree here.  I think Curtis Mead is a impact type bat.

[Tryptamine]

18 minutes ago, 1908_Cubs said:

Well, I'd really ask you to re-read my post because I think I covered all of those things.  I was very careful to say it, but I'll say it again:

* wasn't a 1:1 comparison and I really don't like direct comparisons because it makes unrealistic expectations

* that he's a Bregman style hitter (not fielder), and that I'm not saying he's an 8 fWAR player

 

But if we're talking stylistically...yeah I think they're similar-ish.  There's plenty of lift in the swing profile of Mead; he's got a good swing to generate the ball in the air.  He's not going to strike out a lot, he makes good swing decisions.  I know FG shows a lot of GB's...those numbers can be pretty unreliable; again, I love FG but MiLB batted ball data is...all over the place and their stat tracking is bonkers at times.  I'm more interested in the swing profile and there's plenty of lift to be generated there, especially as he's moved his hands from being lower (which was creating extra movement in the hands) to higher again (which creates less movement = that's good).  I think there can be even more power unlocked with small tweaks.  He's also an exit velocity monster, posting some of the best EV's in the minors a few years running.  We also know that players with strong contact rates correlate at some of the highest levels to productive MLB hitters.  

We'll have to disagree here.  I think Curtis Mead is a impact type bat.

Start building up that immunity now. It's only going to get worse. 

[Jason Ross]

31 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

 

Some things I want to address  here:

- The Cubs have no track record of suddenly turning a hitter like Mead into a flyball monster. They’re one of the handful worst flyball hitting teams of the pandemic era MLB, couldn’t do it with Heyward last decade either 

- Maaaaaaybe 10 years ago I’d buy that the MiLB batted ball stats we get are unreliable. 2023? Nope, not with these gaps anyway

- I would think addressing the massive gaps in flyballs was addressing this suggestion that they’re similar. Bregman consistently ran flyball rates in the high 40s in the minors, the only time he even ran 37% (ML avg) was less than 200 PAs in High A, and he did it with a 39% GB rate. Mead’s consistently avg (42%) or worse with the GBs, and he run FB rates in the minors in the high 20s-mid 30s outside of very small samples. They’re almost completely different hitters in many ways on paper 

- Really the only way they appear to be similar is this rather unsubstantiated claim about swing profile. Different batted ball, athletes, defenders, builds, tools…

- The Cubs just drafted a player in Matt Shaw with even more easily determined similarities to Bregman than Mead (college SS, flyball hitting approach) 

- We agree Mead can hit and being able to hit is an impact skill! JD Davis consistently finds work with second tier teams because he can hit a little too, but these guys are limited in ceiling by a variety of holes in their game even on offense that a player as nuanced and skilled as Bregman just never had. The guy’s more than half a HoFer already! 

Using Jason Heyward as a barometer, a player signed 8 years ago, an established MLB hitter, is specious reasoning.  First, Curtis Mead is a 22 year old, non-established prospect, and Jason Heyward was 27 years old and had been in the MLB for half a decade.  Instead, we should probably look at current Cub prospect development and I think it's pretty clear to see the Cubs prospect development team is generally doing a good job advancing hitters and working with them.  They've been able to rebuild PCA's swing entirely; he has added considerable loft and LA to his swing since coming over to the Mets, the Cubs have managed to work with lower level prospects and turn them into quality hitters; Perlaza is adding more impact to his swing (though more from the left side than the right), the Cubs have done great with McGeary and Murray, they've consistently tweaked Caissie's swing (changing his hit box) and they've made huge strides with Amaya (and added considerable LA there since returning from his TJS)...I think it's pretty unfair to blame the current dev team for the failures of established MLB players a decade ago.  At this stage, I'm very confident with the Chicago Cubs developmental team when it comes to identifying MiLB players of almost any position, and their ability to work with them.  They don't, and can't, bat 1.000, but I'm pretty high on their MiLB system today and their dev team as a whole.  

Yeah, Matt Shaw has some Bregman-style to his offensive approach.  I never once said "Curtis Mead is the most Alex Bregman kind of guy ever!".  I can find similarities in their offensive games while also finding similarities in others.  Remember, it's not a 1:1 comparison, and why I hesitate to use them.  Clearly this is a sticking point for you; I'll do my best to refrain from them in the future.  I also like Matt Shaw!  Though I think you get a big hung up on this GB/FB thing; Shaw's far more aggressive at the plate than either Bregman, or Mead, at least using his collegiate career if we want to be comprehensive here and play this out.  The K% isn't high, but the reports on him is hyper aggressive.  We'll see how that plays out with the Cubs; was it an as aspect of coming from a relatively weaker NCAA conference and just being so good?  Is it an issue?  Can it be worked on if it is?  Time will tell there, it's really hard to nail down.  Bregman is among the most discerning hitters in baseball, with well below swing%, first pitch swing% and chase %, so if we want to nit pick comparisons, we can do it at almost every stage.  It's why, again, I think comps are not particularly great in general.  There's always going to be something different and no two players are identical.

We'll probably just have to leave this here.  You clearly have your opinions on Curtis Mead.  I think I've made mine clear.  You're welcome to your opinion on Mead; the prospect game is rife with opinions and why there's plenty of space for as many evaluators out there on the industry; disagreements are bound to occur.  In the end, we'll probably both be wrong on plenty here.

Edited July 20, 2023 by 1908_Cubs

[mul21]

Quote

 

Since I just got accused of not reading a post I responded too (tbf not unfair many times)…Here’s what this is responding to:

Heyward is a half sentence in that block. I guess, technically, I didn’t say “at the ML level” after flyball monster, but the next half sentence could close that hole. Anyway, point is that you’re ignoring the vast majority of that bullet for convenience sake. The Cubs have zero track record of turning a non-flyball hitter into a flyball monster on offense in the MLs going back to but not limited to Heyward. Heck all of Swanson, Suzuki, and Mervis have actually gone backwards in this area on the ML roster. For all the tweaking they’ve successfully done in the minors none of Crow-Armstrong, Murray, or McGreary are locks to hit in the MLs

 

Nice cherry picking 2 guys who have had oblique injuries that experts have said likely are affecting their swing planes still.

Edited July 20, 2023 by mul21

[mul21]

4 minutes ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Sure, and what’s Mervis’ story? 

horsefeathers happens?  He's still developing?  I poked a hole in 2/3 of your evidence so whatever man.

[CubinNY]

3 hours ago, TomtheBombadil said:

Sure, and what’s Mervis’ story? 

Variance. You keep harping on the difference between 10 fly balls a week and 8 fly balls a week. 

[Transmogrified Tiger]

As a thought exercise or way to pass the time until more legitimate rumors come about, let's do a roundup of hypothetical bold trades.  These are not necessarily endorsements, but I can see the logic for them and they pass the BBTV calculator so there's some external validation that they aren't way off in left field even if they may not be everyone's cup of tea.

 

• Kevin Alcantara for Michael Kopech
  • Why? To piss people off right at the start.  More seriously, the Sox will be selling, and Kopech offers velocity at a cheaper cost than you can find most anywhere else, along with the pedigree to dream on a Diet Arrieta turnaround.  The Sox have both the lack of prospect depth and short term urgency to be able to push Alcantara to MLB as fast as his option clock requires him to.
• Christopher Morel for Edward Cabrera
  • Why? Morel has been a young, controlled offensive success so why trade him?  Because the front office doesn't appear to trust him to play any position, and while the skills are there the consistency is not(case in point: Morel has a 91 wRC+ since his HR streak ended in May).  Cabrera is another premium velocity SP who hasn't put it entirely together, and the Marlins are the rare org that would be looking to deal from a surplus of pitching talent for additional oomph in their lineup.
• Pete Crow-Armstrong for Dylan Cease
  • Why? Because we didn't learn our lesson from the first trade involving Cease.  Kidding aside, prospects fail, and a future with Cease + an extended Bellinger is arguably more attractive than PCA + FA SP.  The Sox get a big time headliner for their big trade chip that other orgs are likely unwilling to offer.
• Justin Steele for Coby Mayo and Heston Kjerstad
  • Why? The odds of Steele staying at this level for the entirety of his team control given his age and stuff are slim.  Mayo and Kjerstad solve multiple short & long term problems at 2 of 3B/1B/DH (depending on your view of Mayo's D) and make the offseason a more straightforward task of reassembling the rotation.  Baltimore borrows from the thing it has the most(hitting prospects lower in the defensive spectrum) to get the thing it has least(controllable SP with MLB success).

[Rex Buckingham]

I think I'd make all those deals TT proposed.  Kjerstad replaces Alcantara as an OF prospect.  PCA going out makes it make sense to re-sign Bellinger.  Cease replaces Steele in the rotation.  Mayo gives a shot at a big bat for a corner or DH. And Cabrera and Kopech are good swings at impact pitching.  

[JD94]

I’m kind of out on extending or resigning Bellinger. His overall stat line is very good, but his baseball savant page is concerning. He also had a good 2 months of being hurt and ice cold with the bat when he did play. I would just be very concerned to give him 5/125 or something when you consider all the facts like what he’s been the last 3 years and his underlying numbers and injuries. 

[UMFan83]

3 hours ago, JD94 said:

I’m kind of out on extending or resigning Bellinger. His overall stat line is very good, but his baseball savant page is concerning. He also had a good 2 months of being hurt and ice cold with the bat when he did play. I would just be very concerned to give him 5/125 or something when you consider all the facts like what he’s been the last 3 years and his underlying numbers and injuries. 

I never looked at his savant numbers.  He has the lowest hard hit% in his career by a decent amount, and is in the bottom 10% of the league.  16% percentile in EV, 19% percentile on barrel%, below average in most of the expected numbers.  Interesting, though I don't think the Cubs ever really planned on extending Bellinger anyways.

[Irrelevant Dude]

I am really interested in the possible return for Bellinger.  He is likely the best trade chip the Cubs have had since the selloff began in 2021.  He is a middle of the order bat playing at near-MVP level, a plus defender, and can be a difference maker for a number of playoff-contending teams.  He is the type of guy who may have netted the Cubs a Top 20 prospect in baseball in years past before teams got smarter about trading away their cost-controlled prospects for rentals.  So, what can the Cubs actually get for him?  Is it realistic to expect a player in the back half of the Top 100 along with another lottery ticket or two at lower levels?