2022-23 Offseason Thread (Cubs)

[UMFan83]

 

Really starting to feel like this is gonna happen

 

With the Phillies involved? If they really want him all they have to do is offer him another year or a little more money given their respective situations and his familiarity with the NL East.

[Bertz]

 

Really starting to feel like this is gonna happen

 

With the Phillies involved? If they really want him all they have to do is offer him another year or a little more money given their respective situations and his familiarity with the NL East.

 

Phillies are heavy favorites for Turner. My guess is Swanson's their backup plan while it seems like he's Jed's plan A.

[UK]

My guess is that the big 3 transactions will be...

 

Senga

Bell

Bellinger

[JeffH]

My guess is that the big 3 transactions will be...

 

Senga

Bell

Bellinger

 

They'll sign Conforto before they sign Josh Bell.

[Backtobanks]

My guess is that the big 3 transactions will be...

 

Senga

Bell

Bellinger

 

I'm good with this. Try to get another SP and then add a catcher and fiddle around with the bullpen.

[Bertz]

 

In typical Mooney fashion there's a lot of words to not say much. But the few things of note

 

- On the SS front, their sources say Correa is said to want to prioritize a winner, Turner is Jed's favorite of the four, and the Cubs have been linked to Swanson. Bogaerts didn't get mentioned at all which is fine by me

- Corey Kluber got called out very specifically on the SP front, as did Matt Carpenter at 1B

- "The offseason checklist includes multiple starting pitchers, a combination of trusted late-inning relievers, a center fielder, a first baseman and a catcher."

- Opposing agents are expecting "a winter of diversified investments." The implication throughout the article from the Athletic guys IMO is that if the Cubs are going to go big somewhere it's going to be at short

[Named After Maddux]

- "The offseason checklist includes multiple starting pitchers, a combination of trusted late-inning relievers, a center fielder, a first baseman and a catcher."

 

Not any surprise, but good to have confirmation they plan to add to the positions externally.

[d_money]

Matt Carpenter? The fact he’s mentioned is annoying

[muntjack]

Matt Carpenter? The fact he’s mentioned is annoying

 

I came to post this but decided to check fangraphs. Today I learned that in his 154 PAs, he was a more productive hitter than Aaron Judge.

[Gilby]

Something like Senga, Kluber, Vazquez, Swanson, Carpenter, 1-2 relievers, and a trade for a cheap CFer probably puts us within $10 million or less under the first LT threshold. I wouldn't hate Michael A Taylor for CF. Again, not much offense but would probably make us the best or at least top 3 defensive team in baseball.

 

Overall not the most exciting off-season and the offense would struggle at times (Mervis becomes fairly critical), but the run prevention part of this team would keep us in contention

[Bertz]

Something like Senga, Kluber, Vazquez, Swanson, Carpenter, 1-2 relievers, and a trade for a cheap CFer probably puts us within $10 million or less under the first LT threshold. I wouldn't hate Michael A Taylor for CF. Again, not much offense but would probably make us the best or at least top 3 defensive team in baseball.

 

Overall not the most exciting off-season and the offense would struggle at times (Mervis becomes fairly critical), but the run prevention part of this team would keep us in contention

 

Yeah I think something like this is probably the median offseason at this point. Maybe with the small difference

of handling CF via FA and one of the SPs via trade?

 

Essentially, the offseason shopping list has 6 required items

 

- SP

- SP

- C

- 1B/DH

- CF

- Relief Help

 

And two optional items:

 

- Shortstop

- Hoerner Extension

 

I think it's safe to assume they won't pass the luxury tax line. But even so if you pass on shortstop it's pretty easy to fill the other seven holes entirely via FA. If you sign Swanson for SS, things get tighter and you've gotta go cheap (dollar-wise at least) on two of the other positions. If you do Correa or Turner, you've gotta skimp at three places.

 

There is some excess depth to trade from the farm, so even with a focus on future and sustainability I think it's easy to see Jed using that route to cross one position off the list. But we know he prioritizes depth, so the above is a big part of why I think we're seeing more and more smoke around Swanson.

[CubinNY]

Swanson is a marginal upgrade and makes Madrigal redundant. That's a good thing, but the price seems high for the improvement. I'm not against it. I still think he signs back with Atlanta. I'm preparing for an eventuality where the Cubs don't sign any of the SS.

[UK]

Swanson is a marginal upgrade and makes Madrigal redundant. That's a good thing, but the price seems high for the improvement. I'm not against it. I still think he signs back with Atlanta. I'm preparing for an eventuality where the Cubs don't sign any of the SS.

 

While Swanson is my least fav of the 4, marginal is a severe underestimation.

[Andy]

Matt Carpenter? The fact he’s mentioned is annoying

 

I came to post this but decided to check fangraphs. Today I learned that in his 154 PAs, he was a more productive hitter than Aaron Judge.

Signing former STL players who inexplicably outperformed their talent at their most recent stop has never failed before, right?

[Derwood]

[Bertz]

 

Formal offers tend to be a sign that things are reaching the endgame. Xander might be making a decision in the next day or so.

 

I'm pretty anti-Bogaerts though. I think I hate him as much as the rest of the fanbase hate Swanson.

[chopsx9]

Matt Carpenter? The fact he’s mentioned is annoying

Jimmy Edmonds Part Deux?!?

[muntjack]

When the season ended, I suggested Luzardo as the guy I'd go after. I originally proposed using surplus OF prospects, which the Marlins are short on. Now, with Canario's injury, I tried plugging in Christian Hernandez + Keegan Thompson and BTV accepted it, so i'll go with that. I'd add a good deal more, if necessary.

 

Young + High 90's + #1 upside is exactly what the rotation needs.

[chopsx9]

When the season ended, I suggested Luzardo as the guy I'd go after. I originally proposed using surplus OF prospects, which the Marlins are short on. Now, with Canario's injury, I tried plugging in Christian Hernandez + Keegan Thompson and BTV accepted it, so i'll go with that. I'd add a good deal more, if necessary.

 

Young + High 90's + #1 upside is exactly what the rotation needs.

 

To be fair that's what every rotation needs.

[Bertz]

 

I like this idea a lot. Despite his down year, I think I like Soler as a player more than most of the 2nd tier DH types on the market (e.g. Mancini). Packaging Soler with Pablo Lopez would fill both DH and one SP spot for only $18M, and drop the prospect cost down to something a little more palatable. BTV says something like Madrigal, Velazquez, and one of Kilian/Brown/Wicks would be fair

 

If you want to save a little more money in exchange for more risk you could do Trevor Rogers instead of Lopez, both are valued similarly.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I get that Soler's production isn't the main point, but is there really that much difference between him and Franmil Reyes for the Cubs purposes? Soler gets a WAR boost from teams pretending he can play LF, but the Cubs(or any contending team) rightfully won't ask him to do that. Especially when a big part of the benefit of trading for a Marlins SP is you aren't paying market rates and can spread that AAV around better. You'd have to be very sure that Rogers or Luzardo was going to turn into a top of the rotation arm, otherwise(and in all situations for Lopez given his service time), you could spend the money on their favorite SP target(Senga, Taillon, etc) and get a DH for near-free who has similar prospects as Soler.

[Bertz]

I get that Soler's production isn't the main point, but is there really that much difference between him and Franmil Reyes for the Cubs purposes? Soler gets a WAR boost from teams pretending he can play LF, but the Cubs(or any contending team) rightfully won't ask him to do that. Especially when a big part of the benefit of trading for a Marlins SP is you aren't paying market rates and can spread that AAV around better. You'd have to be very sure that Rogers or Luzardo was going to turn into a top of the rotation arm, otherwise(and in all situations for Lopez given his service time), you could spend the money on their favorite SP target(Senga, Taillon, etc) and get a DH for near-free who has similar prospects as Soler.

 

Compared to Reyes, Soler is basically a standard deviation better in contact, hits the ball in the air more, and chases a lot less. Soler's actually an interesting case study because Statcast has been way higher on his production than it's netted out to in real life each of the last three years. Potential beneficiary of the shift ban?

 

I don't think you're getting a Soler-like bat for near free. I think you're paying $5-10M for them. Like Carlos Santana got just under $7M from the tight fisted Pirates.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I don't think you're getting a Soler-like bat for near free. I think you're paying $5-10M for them. Like Carlos Santana got just under $7M from the tight fisted Pirates.

 

To maybe specify a bit better, Soler's been basically a 100 wRC+ DH since the start of the pandemic, and he's 31 now and missed significant time with a back injury so there's headwinds that might temper statcast-related optimism. What I'm saying is finding a positionless player who projects to be a league average bat is not a thing that costs real money. You might not get Carlos Santana level certainty, but to pull a couple of free agents you see on lists, Willie Calhoun and Yoshi Tsutsugo both project similarly via Steamer and aren't going to get 5-10 million. Frazier cost 2 million last year, any number of AAAA/Rule 5 types aren't going to cost any money, etc.

[Bertz]

I don't think you're getting a Soler-like bat for near free. I think you're paying $5-10M for them. Like Carlos Santana got just under $7M from the tight fisted Pirates.

 

To maybe specify a bit better, Soler's been basically a 100 wRC+ DH since the start of the pandemic, and he's 31 now and missed significant time with a back injury so there's headwinds that might temper statcast-related optimism. What I'm saying is finding a positionless player who projects to be a league average bat is not a thing that costs real money. You might not get Carlos Santana level certainty, but to pull a couple of free agents you see on lists, Willie Calhoun and Yoshi Tsutsugo both project similarly via Steamer and aren't going to get 5-10 million. Frazier cost 2 million last year, any number of AAAA/Rule 5 types aren't going to cost any money, etc.

 

I feel like this argument is just "why not just punt on 1B/DH unless we're getting someone truly impactful like Bell?" Which makes total sense (I've made that argument before for here as well as SP2), but I think all indications are that the team plans to get an adult in the room at 1B/DH rather than play waiver wire roulette. Soler as a FA would probably fit into the Mancini/Carpenter/Santana FA tier, and provides inroads into some very attractive SP options. To me I think the biggest question is whether the team needs the bat first guy to provide coverage at 1B (I'd think not with Mervis and Wisdom?) or if a pure DH is fine.

[TarzanJoeWallis]

What would everyone think of Sean Manaea? I’ve liked him for a while. Grew up in Valpo. Went to Indiana State. So he’d be near home. Not hearing anything about him though in free agency. I know he seemed to be pretty terrible for San Diego. Maybe a good buy low candidate?