Winning in 2023

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Does Ohtani want to pitch through his next deal? I’m not sure if it was idle speculation but I’ve seen reports he only wanted to pitch for another year or so.

[Rex Buckingham]

Does Ohtani want to pitch through his next deal? I’m not sure if it was idle speculation but I’ve seen reports he only wanted to pitch for another year or so.

 

Saw someone mention that he's a top 15 hitter AND top 15 pitcher right now. I wonder how good he could hit if he didn't pitch at all.

[Andy]

This might actually be good, right? The Cardinals may be clueless to the *fact* that Contreras is aging even as I type

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-willson-contreras-replacing-yadier-molina-say-it-cant-happen

 

The Cardinals checked in on Contreras before the deadline, and if you’re into nightmare scenarios imagine St. Louis replacing the all-time Cardinal catcher with the Cubs’ fan favorite from the 2016 championship core?

To quote Harry Caray, aren't we all?

[UMFan83]

This might actually be good, right? The Cardinals may be clueless to the *fact* that Contreras is aging even as I type

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-willson-contreras-replacing-yadier-molina-say-it-cant-happen

 

The Cardinals checked in on Contreras before the deadline, and if you’re into nightmare scenarios imagine St. Louis replacing the all-time Cardinal catcher with the Cubs’ fan favorite from the 2016 championship core?

 

Paul Goldschmidt and Albert Pujols are actively aging as well. They've also managed to get positive value from the aging corpse of Molina until his age 39 season.

[champaignchris]

Would this help us win in 2023?

 

 

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

What’s the most anyone has given up for a single season of a player?

 

Could the Cubs mitigate some of the prospects lost by taking on a good chunk of the Rendon contract?

[chopsx9]

Would this help us win in 2023?

 

 

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

Just wait a year and don't gut the farm system?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

[Named After Maddux]

Would this help us win in 2023?

 

 

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

Just wait a year and don't gut the farm system?

 

I’m all about the minor league system, but I highly doubt Ohtani ever makes it to free agency if he’s traded. If a team makes the move, it’s with the plan to pony up and extend him. So if there really are plans to trade him, I’d prefer the Cubs make a significant offer. Also I’ve heard a couple times that the Angels really liked Horton so maybe he’s a guy you put in there and take out one of the other top guys.

[UMFan83]

Would this help us win in 2023?

 

 

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

Just wait a year and don't gut the farm system?

 

I’m all about the minor league system, but I highly doubt Ohtani ever makes it to free agency if he’s traded. If a team makes the move, it’s with the plan to pony up and extend him. So if there really are plans to trade him, I’d prefer the Cubs make a significant offer. Also I’ve heard a couple times that the Angels really liked Horton so maybe he’s a guy you put in there and take out one of the other top guys.

 

That was my 1st thought, but I've also heard people say that he will definitely test FA no matter what. But I don't know if that's based on assumption or something he's said. He seems like a guy that would be more than happy to sign an extension if the money and team was right. Rumors at the time were that the Cubs made a very strong impression on Ohtani when he originally came over and some even say we were his 2nd choice. Even though much has changed since then, I imagine he still has a favorable impression of the Cubs. But if he's for sure going to test FA, there's no sense in trading for him now, as some team who stands to benefit more from his ~8 wins of production next year will likely pay more. The concept of trading for a player and hoping he loves playing for your team enough to resign has been a hit and miss strategy for teams like the Cardinals, so I'd rather just let him to go FA and hope his positive impression of the Cubs pushes him to Chicago (assuming the money is right).

 

If he's willing to sign an extension at the time of trading then absolutely lets give up some of that prospect depth. I think what I originally proposed is a little much, it was just a random first thought. But I would expect the Angels to ask for a top 100 prospect, another top 8 prospect, and a pre-arb major league player or near ready AAA player with upside.

[Bertz]

I'm not even sure what a deal would look like. Obviously going to be way underpaid in 2023 but is then a UFA. Given that some reports suggested the Cubs were Ohtani's second choice after the Angels, I'm sure he'd be more than willing to sign an extension, but the Angels are clearly going to want a haul for him.

 

Is Davis or PCA, Steele, C. Hernandez and Mervis for Ohtani too steep?

 

 

¯\_(ツ)_/¯

 

 

And that's including Shohei's 2022 production, which at this point is unattainable. Shohei's probably worth like ~70 at the time of trade, so like swap out Hernandez for one of Canario/Kilian/Wesneski?

 

Qualitatively, the best comp for a Shohei deal is probably Mookie Betts, and he essentially cost Verdugo and Jeter Downs. The deal was much bigger, but IIRC the rest was largely luxury tax shenanigans and not impacting Betts' value.

 

Cub colored glasses, I think Steele and Davis is pretty comparable to Verdugo/Downs, maybe a bit better? But I could buy a third piece being necessary here, after all unlike the Soto deal, with Betts everyone was pretty unanimous in thinking the return was light.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Qualitatively, the best comp for a Shohei deal is probably Mookie Betts, and he essentially cost Verdugo and Jeter Downs. The deal was much bigger, but IIRC the rest was largely luxury tax shenanigans and not impacting Betts' value.

 

Cub colored glasses, I think Steele and Davis is pretty comparable to Verdugo/Downs, maybe a bit better? But I could buy a third piece being necessary here, after all unlike the Soto deal, with Betts everyone was pretty unanimous in thinking the return was light.

 

I don't think it's quite fair to write off the rest of the trade as not impacting Betts' value. Yes the Red Sox were LT motivated and that's why they made the deal they did, but they made the deal they did knowing the salary relief that they were benefitting from Price's 31 million LT number(for 3 years!) going away.

 

That said, I do think Steele and Davis is a half step better than Verdugo/Downs, and given Steele's service time is probably fairly appealing to the Angels compared to, say, Hoerner and his 3 arb years. Adding in a high variance/high ceiling guy like Hernandez feels pretty fair to me. However, I can see a number of teams that probably could cough up an above average pre-arb player, a top-50 prospect, and a top 100/high ceiling lottery ticket without sweating a ton, so you're putting yourself at the whims of Ohtani's preferences(probably good news) and the Angels prospect preferences(probably bad news vs. the field), filtered by those willing and able to pay him his contract(probably good news).

 

Long story short, I can grin and bear a great deal for Ohtani under the assumption that 1) he wants to pitch for a while longer, 2) you aren't trading a Soto level amount of prospect capital, and 3) you aren't cutting down your chances in Ohtani's best years by raiding the MLB roster too much. Throw DJ Herz or Horton into the above deal and I don't really care as long as Ohtani signs, but you start tossing in Hoerners and Thompsons and it gets tough to build a short term championship team given how much you'd be paying Shohei.

[UK]

I won't go as in-depth as others regarding the next off-season but my ideal one consists of...

 

FAs:

 

Rodon 3/75

Bell 4/64

Closer fixer-upper.

 

Re-signing:

Contreras 5/120

Smyly 2/18

 

Extending:

Happ 5/90

Hoerner 6/60

 

Rotation gets a #1. Smyly has been strong obvious injury prone. Bullpen should consist of arms who didnt make the #5 starter (Thompson/Kilian for example), Uelmen, Hughes, and the power arms in Iowa.

 

Offensively, Bell is a huge upgrade. Bringing Contreras back doesn't hurt either. Let Morel play CF until Davis is ready and then battle with Madrigal once Davis or PCA arrive. Mervis can platoon with Framil at DH.

[TruffleShuffle]

This might actually be good, right? The Cardinals may be clueless to the *fact* that Contreras is aging even as I type

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/cubs/cubs-willson-contreras-replacing-yadier-molina-say-it-cant-happen

 

The Cardinals checked in on Contreras before the deadline, and if you’re into nightmare scenarios imagine St. Louis replacing the all-time Cardinal catcher with the Cubs’ fan favorite from the 2016 championship core?

 

Paul Goldschmidt and Albert Pujols are actively aging as well. They've also managed to get positive value from the aging corpse of Molina until his age 39 season.

 

pujols posting his best ops for more than a decade after he comes back to the cardinals was something that i should have known would happen, but somehow i did not expect that his corpse could hit this well.

[TruffleShuffle]

I won't go as in-depth as others regarding the next off-season but my ideal one consists of...

 

FAs:

 

Rodon 3/75

Bell 4/64

Closer fixer-upper.

 

Re-signing:

Contreras 5/120

Smyly 2/18

 

Extending:

Happ 5/90

Hoerner 6/60

 

Rotation gets a #1. Smyly has been strong obvious injury prone. Bullpen should consist of arms who didnt make the #5 starter (Thompson/Kilian for example), Uelmen, Hughes, and the power arms in Iowa.

 

Offensively, Bell is a huge upgrade. Bringing Contreras back doesn't hurt either. Let Morel play CF until Davis is ready and then battle with Madrigal once Davis or PCA arrive. Mervis can platoon with Framil at DH.

 

i feel like it can be tough to platoon guys who have little to no defensive value or flexibility, with all of bell, franmil and mervis limited to 1b or dh. but i guess it can work if you have guys like morel, madrigal and mckinstry who can play a few positions. it kind of seems like there's not much point putting mervis in iowa next year, he's already shown he can handle AA/AAA and it's probably time to figure out what he can do in the bigs.

[champaignchris]

Re-signing:

Contreras 5/120

 

This seems pretty steep for Contreras. Grandal got 4 /73 and Realmuto got 5/115. I don’t think Willson is as well-regarded as Realmuto. I think the Grandal contract is closer to what he’ll get.

[chopsx9]

JD was on Toronto Radio this morning and the subject of re-signing Wilson came up and very casually within discussion he mentions he's not sure how much catching he'd be doing through the next contract and specifically mentioned DHing more and going back to playing the OF again. They way he phrased it was that this would be the plan if he re-signed with the Cubs.

 

The other discussion that came up once he was off the air was Ohtani. The 2 Toronto broadcasters (Jeff Blair - who I think is a bit of a tool; Kevin Barker - who I believe was a Brewer top prospect at one point and I think is pretty decent) could not stop going on about what a great fit the Cubs and Ohtani would be. Easily went on for 3 or 4 minutes going as far as to say it "makes too much sense" and even saying how good (physically) he would look in a Cubs uniform. Just a little odd to see broadcasters from another team so exited about the prospect of Ohtani ending up with the Cubs.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

^^ Yeah, mostly I don’t see Contreras getting both same length and more money than Realmuto…Maybe 5/105? 4/93-95? 4/96 to get him the highest salary?

 

I could look very dumb about this, but I think we could see Willson's market fail to materialize. It only takes one team to fall in love or have money burn a hole in their pocket, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't beat Grandal(4/73) in years or dollars.

[mul21]

^^ Yeah, mostly I don’t see Contreras getting both same length and more money than Realmuto…Maybe 5/105? 4/93-95? 4/96 to get him the highest salary?

 

I could look very dumb about this, but I think we could see Willson's market fail to materialize. It only takes one team to fall in love or have money burn a hole in their pocket, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't beat Grandal(4/73) in years or dollars.

 

I'm kind of expecting something like 4/80 honestly. Enough years and money to make it worth his while but not something that will cripple the team who does the deal if he ends up broken or ages poorly.

[Tryptamine]

^^ Yeah, mostly I don’t see Contreras getting both same length and more money than Realmuto…Maybe 5/105? 4/93-95? 4/96 to get him the highest salary?

 

I could look very dumb about this, but I think we could see Willson's market fail to materialize. It only takes one team to fall in love or have money burn a hole in their pocket, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't beat Grandal(4/73) in years or dollars.

 

It certainly seems like the lack of a trade market means the industry as a whole aren't super enthused with Contreras. I'd happily take him back if he falls to the 3/60 or 4/75 range.

[champaignchris]

If Willson isn’t considered a catcher, his value goes down significantly. He’s a reliably good, not great offensive player in the 115 OPS+/wRC+ range. He’s an Ian Happ who only hits from the right side. Not without value, but not a $20 million a year player. Closer to a $12-15 million a year player.

[sneakypower]

^^ Yeah, mostly I don’t see Contreras getting both same length and more money than Realmuto…Maybe 5/105? 4/93-95? 4/96 to get him the highest salary?

 

I could look very dumb about this, but I think we could see Willson's market fail to materialize. It only takes one team to fall in love or have money burn a hole in their pocket, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if he doesn't beat Grandal(4/73) in years or dollars.

 

It certainly seems like the lack of a trade market means the industry as a whole aren't super enthused with Contreras. I'd happily take him back if he falls to the 3/60 or 4/75 range.

[squally1313]

If Willson isn’t considered a catcher, his value goes down significantly. He’s a reliably good, not great offensive player in the 115 OPS+/wRC+ range. He’s an Ian Happ who only hits from the right side. Not without value, but not a $20 million a year player. Closer to a $12-15 million a year player.

Yeah, some weird dissonance on the 'actually every team is going to think he's maybe going to suck or at least get significantly worse, so this is actually an opportunity for us' reasoning

[squally1313]

If Willson isn’t considered a catcher, his value goes down significantly. He’s a reliably good, not great offensive player in the 115 OPS+/wRC+ range. He’s an Ian Happ who only hits from the right side. Not without value, but not a $20 million a year player. Closer to a $12-15 million a year player.

Yeah, some weird dissonance on the 'actually every team is going to think he's maybe going to suck or at least get significantly worse, so this is actually an opportunity for us' reasoning

 

I’m not understanding the all catcher or no catcher mentality. He’s got a 131 wRC+ this year doing less catching but not doing zero catching. From the sounds of it, JD’s comments at least, that’s what an extension would look like

 

Also the career 115 wRC+ is like 30 points above what the position’s done. It’s not a straight 115 for the purposes of forecasting or even projecting Contreras in a less straightforward role

 

I might have picked the wrong post to quote, but my overall point stands. 'The market not coming together' essentially means no team thinks he's worth a six figure contract. There are a few obvious reasons for that. Say what you will about defensive catching metrics, but Willson has never rated positively there, and he certainly would be worse at another position or spending more time as the DH. The career 115 wRC+ compares favorably to the current 107 wRC+ coming out of the DH spot this year, but I don't know if it's an advantage you want to pay $20m or so a year for, and it's also something you probably need to regress as he continues to slide down the age curve. Absolutely, if he's 90% or more of what he's doing this year, go for it. But I think if this wasn't Willson Contreras, Cub Legend, we were talking about, this would be a different conversation.

[mul21]

Yeah, some weird dissonance on the 'actually every team is going to think he's maybe going to suck or at least get significantly worse, so this is actually an opportunity for us' reasoning

 

I’m not understanding the all catcher or no catcher mentality. He’s got a 131 wRC+ this year doing less catching but not doing zero catching. From the sounds of it, JD’s comments at least, that’s what an extension would look like

 

Also the career 115 wRC+ is like 30 points above what the position’s done. It’s not a straight 115 for the purposes of forecasting or even projecting Contreras in a less straightforward role

 

I might have picked the wrong post to quote, but my overall point stands. 'The market not coming together' essentially means no team thinks he's worth a six figure contract. There are a few obvious reasons for that. Say what you will about defensive catching metrics, but Willson has never rated positively there, and he certainly would be worse at another position or spending more time as the DH. The career 115 wRC+ compares favorably to the current 107 wRC+ coming out of the DH spot this year, but I don't know if it's an advantage you want to pay $20m or so a year for, and it's also something you probably need to regress as he continues to slide down the age curve. Absolutely, if he's 90% or more of what he's doing this year, go for it. But I think if this wasn't Willson Contreras, Cub Legend, we were talking about, this would be a different conversation.

 

I think there is some value in having that influence around, whether it's measurable or not. Maybe I've been brainwashed by living in STL for too long but there's a marked difference in how the Cards perform when Molina is around vs. when he's not and I really think there's something mental to it, whether it's accountability or confidence or whatever myriad of other things it could be and I think we saw some of that last night with the conversation he had with Morel before he hit the HR. Is it worth an extra year or an extra couple million per? I don't know, but Jed and Co. get paid a lot of money to determine whether it is or not.

[squally1313]

 

I’m not understanding the all catcher or no catcher mentality. He’s got a 131 wRC+ this year doing less catching but not doing zero catching. From the sounds of it, JD’s comments at least, that’s what an extension would look like

 

Also the career 115 wRC+ is like 30 points above what the position’s done. It’s not a straight 115 for the purposes of forecasting or even projecting Contreras in a less straightforward role

 

I might have picked the wrong post to quote, but my overall point stands. 'The market not coming together' essentially means no team thinks he's worth a six figure contract. There are a few obvious reasons for that. Say what you will about defensive catching metrics, but Willson has never rated positively there, and he certainly would be worse at another position or spending more time as the DH. The career 115 wRC+ compares favorably to the current 107 wRC+ coming out of the DH spot this year, but I don't know if it's an advantage you want to pay $20m or so a year for, and it's also something you probably need to regress as he continues to slide down the age curve. Absolutely, if he's 90% or more of what he's doing this year, go for it. But I think if this wasn't Willson Contreras, Cub Legend, we were talking about, this would be a different conversation.

 

I think there is some value in having that influence around, whether it's measurable or not. Maybe I've been brainwashed by living in STL for too long but there's a marked difference in how the Cards perform when Molina is around vs. when he's not and I really think there's something mental to it, whether it's accountability or confidence or whatever myriad of other things it could be and I think we saw some of that last night with the conversation he had with Morel before he hit the HR. Is it worth an extra year or an extra couple million per? I don't know, but Jed and Co. get paid a lot of money to determine whether it is or not.

 

Sure, I don't disagree there, and there's probably a weird, meta offshoot of that conversation along the lines of 'baseball is entertainment, and Cubs fans love and are entertained by Willson Contreras, which is worth X'. I just think some of that more...theoretical benefit is showing through what is otherwise a conversation about how good he will be at winning baseball games on a go forward basis.