Winning in 2023

[Transmogrified Tiger]

No matter who you'd like the targets to be, consolidation should top the to-do list this offseason. Starting pitching depth and OF prospects are strengths. The IF and the top of the rotation are weaknesses.

 

Stroman

Steele

Thompson

Sampson

Hendricks

Wesneski

Assad

Kilian

Mills

Alzolay

 

are all guys who could feasibly start a game next season, and that doesn't include most of the Iowa rotation.

 

Canario

Davis

PCA

Hill

Perlaza

Nwogu

Pinango

Cassie

 

will all be at Tennessee or Iowa in 2023.

 

It makes a lot of sense, packaging some of these guys to upgrade in the aforementioned areas of need.

 

I don't think the pitching congestion is that large a concern. Mills and Assad are flotsam and Sampson isn't far behind, plus Alzolay is out of options and turns 28 before ST, they should consider him a MIRP at this point. Kilian clearly needs more time in AAA and the pen will certainly have lots of opportunity for someone to do what Thompson did this year if they can show out as a starter(including possibly Thompson himself).

 

The OF congestion is a little more legitimate, but half that group has 4th OF ceiling, you have the DH, Caissie can play a little 1B, etc. I'm not terrified of Perlaza or Pinango not having every day playing time lined up.

 

There is a congestion that I would try to address in the OF though. At the major league level you currently have both corner OF spots spoken for(RH and Switch) and a decent full-time DH(RH), and you have 3 legit OF prospects(Davis, Velazquez, Canario) who should be in line for some MLB time in 2023 that are all RH and are all probably best in a corner. Velazquez is the obvious one to trade away for me, but depending on returns I can see the argument for any of the three.

[Bertz]

No matter who you'd like the targets to be, consolidation should top the to-do list this offseason. Starting pitching depth and OF prospects are strengths. The IF and the top of the rotation are weaknesses.

 

Stroman

Steele

Thompson

Sampson

Hendricks

Wesneski

Assad

Kilian

Mills

Alzolay

 

are all guys who could feasibly start a game next season, and that doesn't include most of the Iowa rotation.

 

Canario

Davis

PCA

Hill

Perlaza

Nwogu

Pinango

Cassie

 

will all be at Tennessee or Iowa in 2023.

 

It makes a lot of sense, packaging some of these guys to upgrade in the aforementioned areas of need.

 

On the rotation side, Wicks and Brown are probably second half options too. SSS but both appear to be figuring out AA.

 

That said I'd still probably be reticent to dip too far into the SP stock for trade. Setting aside Mills and Sampson, the former of which is definitely roster fodder and the latter probably is, I probably only feel comfortable trading one. I love all the SP depth, but on a guy-by-guy basis it's not hard to go through and pick the list apart. Plus we just saw in May how quickly horsefeathers can hit the fan and you can end up giving multiple starts to your #8/#9 guys. I'm probably more cavalier than most about "just throw a bunch of talented guys with options at the roster and things will work out," but even for me the volume plan only works if you maintain volume.

 

The OF though, Jed can spend a good chunk of that capital if he wants. Davis, Canario, and Nwogu are all essentially the same profile. There's also Velazquez, who is already up and yet another power/whiff RHH bat who's a bit of a CF tweener. Offensively Morel is cut from the same cloth, and Alcantara is yet another guy in that mold a year or two further out. I'd try and avoid touching PCA (lefty, a couple grades higher on defense) or Morel (versatile, already here), but honestly the org could move several outfielders this winter and I wouldn't bat an eyelash. I'd even go as far as to say it'd be irresponsible for all three of Davis/Canario/Velazquez to be in the org on March 1st.

[Cubswin11]

That Madrigal news

 

 

Kick that little man out of here

 

[chopsx9]

Momentary hot take: Trade PCA, not Davis

 

It seems the theme of Rebuild 2.0 is to cycle through someone new every 15 mins but Davis both lacks so much trade appeal rn and is still the org’s best OF prospect

 

Obvy want a superstar or impact starter for PCA like Ohtani but like…so do that

 

The farm can handle two sizable trades, especially if they’re confident on down or even off ranking players (which they should be)

I will cop to developing an irrational attachment to certain prospects in the past - Hee-Sop Choi, Brant Brown, Dave Kelton - however PCA is firmly at the top of my no-trade list. Now, I'm 100% on board for not trading either. I'm fine for the bigger acquisitions to come through Free Agency. Want a hot take? How desperate is San Diego to win? Predicated on their belief in re-signing Soto - Tatis for Ohtani with various ancillary parts on both sides as needed.

[CubinNY]

Momentary hot take: Trade PCA, not Davis

 

It seems the theme of Rebuild 2.0 is to cycle through someone new every 15 mins but Davis both lacks so much trade appeal rn and is still the org’s best OF prospect

 

Obvy want a superstar or impact starter for PCA like Ohtani but like…so do that

 

The farm can handle two sizable trades, especially if they’re confident on down or even off ranking players (which they should be)

I will cop to developing an irrational attachment to certain prospects in the past - Hee-Sop Choi, Brant Brown, Dave Kelton - however PCA is firmly at the top of my no-trade list. Now, I'm 100% on board for not trading either. I'm fine for the bigger acquisitions to come through Free Agency. Want a hot take? How desperate is San Diego to win? Predicated on their belief in re-signing Soto - Tatis for Ohtani with various ancillary parts on both sides as needed.

 

If they can use PCA to get somebody like Devers I’m in.

[chopsx9]

Momentary hot take: Trade PCA, not Davis

 

It seems the theme of Rebuild 2.0 is ....)

I will cop to developing an irrational attachment to certain prospects in the past - Hee-Sop Choi, Brant Brown, Dave Kelton - however PCA is firmly at the top of my no-trade list. Now, I'm 100% on board for not trading either. I'm fine for the bigger acquisitions to come through Free Agency. Want a hot take? How desperate is San Diego to win? Predicated on their belief in re-signing Soto - Tatis for Ohtani with various ancillary parts on both sides as needed.

 

If they can use PCA to get somebody like Devers I’m in.

I certainly wouldn't complain about Devers being a Cub...but he's a free agent after next season. It's obviously going take a fair bit more than just PCA, . Do you gut - gut is probably strong but it would likely be a decent sized hit to the system for potentially just a year of Devers? A year in which Cubs aren't really a sure bet to contend? I'd just as soon wait a year, keep the farm intact and take a shot at him after 2023.

[JeffH]

Why is it going to take MORE than PCA to acquire a guy with only one year of control remaining? This isn't Ohtani we're talking about.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why is it going to take MORE than PCA to acquire a guy with only one year of control remaining? This isn't Ohtani we're talking about.

 

Yeah, we have a fair amount of evidence(Mookie, recent deadline packages for rentals) that if Devers gets dealt it's a toss up that a player of PCA's caliber needs to be included at all. The package would probably have to hurt the MLB roster(read: Morel), but Devers isn't Mookie, Ohtani, or Soto and his return would probably reflect that.

[chopsx9]

Why is it going to take MORE than PCA to acquire a guy with only one year of control remaining? This isn't Ohtani we're talking about.

 

Yeah, we have a fair amount of evidence(Mookie, recent deadline packages for rentals) that if Devers gets dealt it's a toss up that a player of PCA's caliber needs to be included at all. The package would probably have to hurt the MLB roster(read: Morel), but Devers isn't Mookie, Ohtani, or Soto and his return would probably reflect that.

 

Devers was the variable; the crux of the discussion was trading PCA. But sure if the Red Sox take Morel for Devers you do that deal 8 times a day. Some other team who is already competitive is going to be willing to offer more than Morel for Devers in hopes of putting them over the top.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Why is it going to take MORE than PCA to acquire a guy with only one year of control remaining? This isn't Ohtani we're talking about.

 

Yeah, we have a fair amount of evidence(Mookie, recent deadline packages for rentals) that if Devers gets dealt it's a toss up that a player of PCA's caliber needs to be included at all. The package would probably have to hurt the MLB roster(read: Morel), but Devers isn't Mookie, Ohtani, or Soto and his return would probably reflect that.

 

Devers was the variable; the crux of the discussion was trading PCA. But sure if the Red Sox take Morel for Devers you do that deal 8 times a day. Some other team who is already competitive is going to be willing to offer more than Morel for Devers in hopes of putting them over the top.

 

Oh to be clear it'd be Morel plus other stuff, I think the one I modeled after the Betts deal that matched up on BaseballTradeValues was like Morel + Herz + Triantos, though that shows up as an overpay there now.

[Cubswin11]

Lol at trading PCA for 1 year/pending FA of Devers. That’s insane. PCA should only be used for a guy controlled longer or in a Ohtani deal as a pending FA guy. And I’m perfectly fine moving him but Devers ain’t it.

[UMFan83]

Kap rumors

 

[Bertz]

I'd be very surprised by a trade for someone like Devers. Feels like this is a year too early to go make a huge trade for a star, especially a walk year guy. I could see Ohtani, just because he's so special you've gotta make that sort of deal when it comes around, but a more "ordinary" star like Devers would shock me.

 

Something like Pablo Lopez feels like the top end of the non-Ohtani options I'd anticipate?

[CubinNY]

Kap rumors

 

ALL IN

[CubinNY]

I'd be very surprised by a trade for someone like Devers. Feels like this is a year too early to go make a huge trade for a star, especially a walk year guy. I could see Ohtani, just because he's so special you've gotta make that sort of deal when it comes around, but a more "ordinary" star like Devers would shock me.

 

Something like Pablo Lopez feels like the top end of the non-Ohtani options I'd anticipate?

Why wouldn't Devers sign an extension as a condition of the trade? Is he a Boras client? I tried to look it up, but I couldn't find his agent. He's a perfect fit for what this team needs.

[squally1313]

Kap rumors

 

ALL IN

Yeah can I be a naive, optimistic Cubs fan for a second and imagine these guys all starting their careers right when the Cubs had their (much too short) era of dominance and they want to get in on the ground floor of version 2.0. Terrible english there, but you get the point.

[Tim]

Let's run with that for a minute...

 

That would give us a lineup something like this:

 

SS Turner

2B Hoerner

LF Happ

RF Suzuki

DH Reyes

1B Mervis

3B Wisdom

C Gomes

CF Morel

 

And a rotation something like this:

 

Rodon

Stroman

Steele

Thompson

Hendricks

 

That doesn't suck! It likely needs more depth to be a championship team and is counting on Mash to do a lot of heavy lifting from the left side of the plate. But that would be an awfully great start to the offseason.

[squally1313]

Another issue with targeting Devers is defense. They’d be in another Contreras-esque situation but with a player who likely wants much more money

Those are not the same players.

[Bertz]

I'd be very surprised by a trade for someone like Devers. Feels like this is a year too early to go make a huge trade for a star, especially a walk year guy. I could see Ohtani, just because he's so special you've gotta make that sort of deal when it comes around, but a more "ordinary" star like Devers would shock me.

 

Something like Pablo Lopez feels like the top end of the non-Ohtani options I'd anticipate?

Why wouldn't Devers sign an extension as a condition of the trade? Is he a Boras client? I tried to look it up, but I couldn't find his agent. He's a perfect fit for what this team needs.

 

I'm sure he would, what I'm saying is that trading e.g. Morel and then giving Devers $300M+ doesn't feel like something Jed's going to do right at the start of this window. Especially with Correa, Turner, Arenado (probably), and Swanson all available in FA for just the money.

 

Jed's going to be less pedal to the metal than Theo was. This isn't going to be an offseason of just one year pillow contracts but at the same time I think anyone expecting multiple 9 figure contracts or some other similarly balls out approach is setting themselves up for major disappointment.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Jed's going to be less pedal to the metal than Theo was. This isn't going to be an offseason of just one year pillow contracts but at the same time I think anyone expecting multiple 9 figure contracts or some other similarly balls out approach is setting themselves up for major disappointment.

 

I think this is true but I also think it's part of the argument for Devers. Maybe they were extra conservative because of where they were in the competitive cycle, but I think Jed is extra mindful of back end age risk when it comes to big contracts. It's partly why Suzuki and Correa were the big targets last year, and partly why they got Stroman instead of a 4-5 year deal for similar dollars for SP in a similar age bracket. Devers being 2 years younger than Correa, 3.5 younger than Turner, and 4 younger than Bogaerts is a big deal in that regard, and I can see that definitely being worth trading from prospect depth to acquire, especially when Turner/Bogaerts require a prospect cost of their own through the QO.

[squally1313]

I get that you can't ignore all that sweet team control, but are we really going to let Chris 'I have a .616 OPS in the second half and +30% K rate for the year' Morel hold up any sort of plans to acquire all star level players?

[squally1313]

Another issue with targeting Devers is defense. They’d be in another Contreras-esque situation but with a player who likely wants much more money

Those are not the same players.

 

They don’t have to be the same to be similar. As a QOable upcoming next year FA there’ll be plenty of talk about how Devers is also Actually Not That Good too

I can guarantee that there won't be any talk about him being 30 years old.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Nothing revelatory, but ESPN's baseball writers voted on FA tiers and put an article together with commentary from Passan: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34585322/jeff-passan-early-2022-23-mlb-free-agency-tiers

 

Tier 1: Judge, DeGrom, Arenado, Turner

Tier 2: Correa, Verlander, Bogaerts, Swanson, Rodon, Diaz, Senga, Bassitt

Tier 3: Nimmo, Abreu, Contreras, Taillon, Anderson, Eovaldi, Wainwright, Bell, Benintendi, Haniger

 

There are additional tiers but it's not worth me making a laundry list of names. Of interest to names already mentioned in this thread, it says that Correa's chance at a long term deal at 35M might be waning, Rodon is probable to get a 9 figure deal, and Contreras won't get to Realmuto's contract value.

[UMFan83]

What kind of contract would Turner demand? I don't see Jed wanting to offer a 30 year old more than a 4 maybe 5 year deal. Especially someone who has had significant trouble staying healthy for a full season in his career. (though the last 2 seasons have been by far his healthiest). If he is our significant investment for a bat, it seems a bit risky even if he is one of the top 3 position players in this class, and maybe the best player that will actually be available (assuming Judge quickly re-ups with NYY and Arenado has to exercise his opt out to be a FA)

 

I love the idea of Trea Turner but I'm not sure if its the smartest move for a FO who may not be able to afford too many mistakes on big FA contracts due to PTR.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

What kind of contract would Turner demand? I don't see Jed wanting to offer a 30 year old more than a 4 maybe 5 year deal. Especially someone who has had significant trouble staying healthy for a full season in his career. (though the last 2 seasons have been by far his healthiest). If he is our significant investment for a bat, it seems a bit risky even if he is one of the top 3 position players in this class, and maybe the best player that will actually be available (assuming Judge quickly re-ups with NYY and Arenado has to exercise his opt out to be a FA)

 

I love the idea of Trea Turner but I'm not sure if its the smartest move for a FO who may not be able to afford too many mistakes on big FA contracts due to PTR.

 

I think Turner's risk comes more due to age than durability, he's going on 5 years now of averaging 150 games per 162. I don't have a good sense for how aggressive the market is going to be post-CBA and with full season revenues back, but I think something like 6/210 gets in you in the ballpark and you can scale the years or AAV up/down a little from there.